When General Grant took command of the Army of the Potomac in the spring of 1864 the staff he inherited warned him of the dangers of "Bobby Lee" and how lethal the Confederate forces could be to the Union forces. Grant said, "I don't want to hear any more about what Bobby Lee is going to do to us. I want him to worry about what we are going to do to him".

General Grant rightly realized that the staff that he had inherited were simply afraid of Bobby Lee.  Frankly, I think many Obama supporters have the same fear of Hillary Clinton.  

Enough

.

I have been involved in politics off and on (mostly off) for the last twenty years or so.  In the early 90s,I was on the state central committee for my assembly district and got to go state convention twice (it was a blast). In 2004, I got to be an Edwards pledged delegate.  For the most part, I limit myself to attending fundraisers now.  Before she got sick, my wife was very involved in politics and early in life was the spokeperson for the Montana Democratic Party.

Recently, our daughter (who just finished her sophomore year in college)has expressed an interest in public service.

My wife and I have consistently held Ted Kennedy up as our example of the ideal public servant.  

Two days ago, on Thursday, Kos pointed out that Hillary and her supporters were experiencing the five stage of grief (denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance).  Kos argued that Hillary and her supporters were just finishing stage three--bargaining.  You can read Kos' post here.

Today, I have seen ample signs that Hillary and her supporters are in the midst of stage four: depression.  My guess is that this stage will go on till Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.  Perhaps, Hillary and her supporters can accept Obama's victory shortly after Oregon delivers a big win for Obama and he claims victory in Iowa with a great speech.

A day is a lifetime in politics.  There are nine days to the Oregon primary.  That is nine lifetimes--and it is all the lives that Hillary has left.  I believe that within those nine days, Hillary's support will decline a great deal and at least 45 superdelegates will flood to Obama.  After Obama trounces Hillary in Oregon, Hillary will go to her headquarters to reexamine her campaign.  That Wednesday, Obama will pick up a flood of superdelegates.  Well-known Clinton superdelegates will tell Clinton that she will have to quit.  On Thursday, May 22, 2008, Hillary Clinton will drop out of the race and endorse Barack Obama.

I am overconfident?  I do not think so.  Barack has quitely set goal posts and he does not set goal posts unless he thinks he is going to meet them.  Obama's campaign has been based on careful planning--and now they are planning Hillary's exit.

After Wisconsin, Obama and his supporters realized he had won.  After North Carolina, the MSM got it--Obama has won.  Obama gave Hillary "space" to reached a dignified end.

Instead, Hillary proclaimed that she is the candidate of white america.  In a way, in this is fitting.  Kos called this the Clinton Civil War.  Hillary's attempt of coup by superdelegate has failed.  She is broke.  Two superdelegates has flipped on her.  McGovern said it was over.  Wolfson looking for a book deal.  She lost $11.4 million in loans that she will never get paid back.

Now, she looks like Jefferson Davis who refused to surrender for more than a month after Robert Lee did.  

Hillary's campaign maybe in its last hours or its last month.  Either way, the Clinton Civil War is coming to a close.  The attempt of coup by superdelegate has failed.  Actually, the attempt was futile from start.  She had lost over two months ago when she lost eleven in a row.

I understand the urge to gloat.  Bill and Hillary have driven me crazy for the better parts of three months. They acted like our opponents--using Rove tactics and Republican attack lines.    

But now our civil war is drawing to a close.  And we must remember what is at stake.  We are one party.  We are all Americans.  And for too long our government has been only interested in helping the rich and powerful.    

I was never going to vote for Hillary in the primary.  The reason: the war vote.  And for reasons not relevant here, I struggled between Obama and Edwards (Edwards pledged delegate in 2004) last year and settled, just before Iowa, on Obama.

Of course, all the garbarge that Hillary and Bill have done during the campaign and especially the stuff they have done since Hillary lost the race in February has harden my opposition to Hillary.  

But as we go into the final month of primaries the key question is not: Whether Obama will win.  Obama will win.  The key question is: Will Hillary do the right thing when Obama locks up the nomination?  Will she drop out some day in early June when Obama gets to 2025 and then work to unite the party?  

I surprised myself with the answer: Yes she will.

I know there is a lot of frustration on Daily Kos about superdelegates.  People become especially frustrated when they read stories about Obama having twenty superdelegates waiting to delcare, but those superdelegates come out one by one rather than in a block.

Furthermore, the MSM makes it sound like the superdelegates are undecided as to who to back.  Actually, the MSM's take is understandably: if the superdelegates have decided, why have they not declated.  If rumors of blocks of fifty or twenty superdelegates for Obama never pan out, why shouldn't the MSM think that the superdelegates are undecided and are weighing each candidate's merits.

However, if you closely look at recent reporting and what has happened to date with superdelegates, I think it is safe bet that more than 75% of the remaining undeclarated superdelegates are going to declare for Obama.  Indeed, I think 75% is conservative and I think it is quite possible that Obama will get more than 80% of the outstanding superdelegates.  And I think there is strong reason to believe that in July many well known Clinton superdelegates will switch sides.

Obama's first ballot margin at the convention will be at least 300 votes and possibly more than 400 votes due to superdelegate voting.

Obama supporters love to talk about delegate math.  Indeed, I, for one, love Chris Bowers's delegate write ups on Open Left.  I love the diaries (which I have seen here (Pocketnines), on the Field and during the Texas Primary/Caucus on Burnt Orange Report) on congressional district delegate projections.   And I certainly like it when Chuck Todd talks about delegate math.

But in all my years following politics, I have to come to appreciate a different sort of math: the math of cash.   In contested elections, if one candidate has a financial advantage over the other candidate that advantage can be devasting.

Tonight, TIME is reporting that Obama has raised at least $30 million and a source says that Clinton's campaign is hinting that it raised about $20 million.  

As you may recall, Obama's leaked delegate chart predicted a 20-13 split in Mississippi.  Unfortunately on election night, it looked like Obama split the state 19-14.  

The results were certified today and it appear that Obama ended up winning a 20-13 split.  The reason for the shift is that if you put Obama and Clinton heads up: Obama won 62.512% of the vote, just above the 62.5% threshold for getting a 3-1 split in the 4 delegate PELO    

I have two sources for the story, but this needs to be confirmed.  To get to 62.5% of the vote for Obama you have to eliminate the votes cast for other candidates like Edwards.  That makes sense to me since typically in a democratic primary you are not considered viable unless you have 15% of the vote.  And this interpretation seems to be supported by my reading of the applicable democratic rules.

Better yet, I have learned since I first posted my diary that this 2 delegate shift resulted from the efforts of a lone blogger named voiceofreason, who spotted an error in the tally sheets.

To be honest, nobody drops out for the good of the party.  Candidates leave for one of two reasons: they run out of support or they run out of money.  Dodd, Biden and Richardson left due to lack of support.  Dodd had money problems too (I donated some money to retire his campaign debt after he endorsed Obama).   Edwards did very poorly in Nevada (4%), lost his home state (South Carolina) and probably had little money left at the end.

Typically, when it is clear that one candidate has a virtual lock on the nomination (as Obama has), the money for the other candidate dries up overnight.  However, this has not happened to Hillary.  Why?  She has gone to absurd lengths to con her own supporters into thinking she has a great chance to win the nomination.

Day by day this con is being exposed and, I think, one day soon, enough of Hillary's supporters will realize that they have been conned that Hillary will not have enough money to continue.  And once this happens, Hillary will have to leave the race.    
 

Yesterday, Hillary tried to pass off her Bosnia misstatement as a single mistatement.  Jed has aleady come up with numerous other instances where Hillary made the same false claim.  It is clear that she made the false statement in Iowa as well.  Updated: Have Video!  

On Friday, the candidates had to report their receipts for last month.  Obama has $30 million in primary cash in hand on February 29, 2008.  Clinton's primary cash on hand was only $3 million.  (She had over $20 million in general election cash that she can only spend if she is the party's nominee and must otherwise return).  Here is the link.

Now, Hillary was broke before (after Super Tueday) and she managed to raise enough cash to compete in Ohio and Texas so why does it matter that Hillary is broke again.  The narrative is very different now and that change could spell the end of her campaign sooner than the MSM will let you believe: May 7, 2008.  

In Hillary's great victory in Ohio, she netted plus 9.  Today in Iowa, Politico is reporting that the final number is Obama plus 10 for the county conventions.  So, Obama wiped out the Ohio gain today.

Pro-Obama folks are frustrated that Hillary goes on despite the math.  The MSM seems to buy the fact that things are up in the air and that Hillary can come back.  On myDD, I recently saw a claim that Hillary was neck and neck with Obama in both the pledged delegate race.

Why does this disconnect exist?  How can Hillary so confuse the MSM?  

The answer is simple: the unsettled state of Michigan and Florida.  But that cloud over delegate math is disappearing and Hillary will suffer as a result in the next 39 days before the PA vote.  

Lots of Obama's supporters get frustrated with him when he does not punch back.  They dream and write mock negative ads on daily kos.  Pundits write that the test of this campaign now is weather Obama can throw a punch; not whether he can take one.  I, too, have wondered if Obama can throw the roundhouse punch.  

And then today, after watching the KO's Special Comment on Countdown, I realized the depth of Obama's genius and the brillance of his campaign.  He is using non-violent tactics to expose the insanity and violence of Hillary's campaign.  It worked once and I believe it will work again.

May 20th is the date of the Oregon and Kentucky primary.  It is also the date that Obama is likley to be declared the winner of the pleadged delegates race (the first to 1627 delegates).  After May 20, 2008, Hillary's only argument is using Superdelegates to overturn the popular will.  Some Superdelegates will likely use Obama's pledged delegate win as an excuse to endorse.  

I litigate cases for a living.  And litigating cases can be a lot like political campaigns.  There is always a fight to control the narrative. Especially at trial.  I find the best way to control the narrative is to push your own narrative of the case, rather than respond to opponent's spin on a case.

Obama has let Clinton control the narrative on national security.  Indeed, the problem with the response ad to the 3 am ad was that played right into Clinton's ad--brought her narrative.  

And going negative on taz returns will not solve his national security program.

Obama has to state his case first in a clear contrast (negative?) ad like the one below.  

Release this ad on the Friday morning before the eleciton in all major markets in PA.