First of all, I want to make it clear that this is not a scholarly diary ala Jerome a Paris.  This is a diary for the common folk (like me) that are very interested, but get lost in all of the scholarly analysis and data.  This is in no way a criticism of Jerome, just an acknowledgement that most of us are not in his league when it comes to energy affairs. I read them all and understand the immense value of his analysis, but feel like an idiot because he can grasp so many of the intricacies of the energy markets when I am lucky to understand a few.

So here are the four items I see adding up to a perfect storm because they have all hit together with my humble opinions (open to everybody’s critique):

1. Geopolitics

2. The Weak Dollar

3. Speculation

4. Supply and Demand

I have organized them in the order which I believe they affect oil/gasoline prices and the first three are directly caused by the Bush Administration. Only Geopolitics could have driven oil over $100/bbl by itself, but it has happened in an unanticipated manner with the other 3 items getting out of hand at the same time.