In the interest of holding people accountable for their BS I present you this friendly reminder.

Remember this:

I have her carrying Pennsylvania by 20 percent--a 60 percent to 40 percent margin of the two-candidate (Clinton and Obama) vote. That's better than she did in Ohio, where she won 55 percent of the two-candidate vote. But her showings there in the 6th congressional district (70 percent to 27 percent), the 17th congressional district (63 percent to 35percent) and the 18th congressional district (66 percent to 31percent) have influenced me; those areas are a lot like most of western and central Pennsylvania, where you also find very few blacks and upscale whites.

And this handy table:

Notice anything wrong?

Yesterday the Huffington Post published this nugget by dancing monkey Lanny Davis:

Latest Gallup National Democratic Tracking Poll: Obama-Clinton Now in Dead Heat -- Will the Pundits and Media Analyze Why?

So now my question and challenge is to the national media covering the campaign, and especially to the cable TV shows -- from the Situation Room on CNN to the persistently and unashamedly pro-Obama MSNBC nightly cable TV hosts to the New York Times and other national political reporters: Will you headline the current apparent decline of Barack Obama's national Democratic Party strength and the Hillary Clinton surge within the last week alone -- or not?

Flash forward to today:

Gallup Daily: Obama Regains Lead Over Clinton, 49% to 42%

Hows about it, teh medias? Will you headline the current apparent decline of Barack Obama's national Democratic Party strength and the Hillary Clinton surge within the last week alone -- or not?

We all know that the pledged delegates are just one part of the nomination process, with superdelegates being the other.

The nomination is determined by DELEGATES. Not popular votes. Though, the popular vote may be used as a flawed piece of evidence to influence the superdelegates. But this diary is not about the popular vote, since there are obvious issues with how to count the popular vote. This diary is about actual elections, and when the election-based part of this nomination process will produce a winner with a majority of pledged delegates. (and yes, we all know how Hillary wants pledged delegates to leave Obama, again, thats another diary.)

After all my playing with numbers: I find that Obama will clinch the PD lead on either May 20th, or more optimistically, May 13th.

From Ben Smith at Politico:

My colleague Jeffrey Ressner was at Hillary's fundraiser last night at the Wilshire Theater in Los Angeles,  and captured the audio (.wma)of a really jarring scene: A woman dragged out in handcuffs, screaming that she was the only black supporter of Hillary there. (She wasn't.)

Secret Service, Ressner emails, declined to comment.

There's no other info out there about this, but as it stands, this is pretty freaky. Was this a Hillary supporter who had a little too much to drink? Is this a protester trying to make a scene? Is this a random person with a personal problem? Was she a threat to Hillary or other guests? Or is she a victim of an overzealous and insensitive security detail? Hopefully the Secret Service will eventually let us in on what happened in LA.

Edit: I listened more closely to the audio. At 0:53 she says "I donated the maximum amount of money to Hillary." Odd.

Well, maybe not slam.

In his blog, Krugman writes:

OK, this is pretty dumb. Hillary Clinton wants a high-level commission to analyze ways to resolve the mortgage crisis — including Alan Greenspan.

Yes, I know people still listen when Greenspan speaks — and John McCain once joked about taking Greenspan’s advice even if he’s dead. But for those in the know, AG is a key villain in the whole affair.

I mean, why not add Charles Prince, Stanley O’Neal, and Angelo Mozilo to the commission?

Here's one thing I don't get about the Clinton campaign: why do they contradict themselves so much?

1. Obama's not prepared to be president, but we'll have him take over if something were to happen to President Hillary.

2. Obama can't win Pennsylvania in the general, but either Democrat can carry Pennsylvania in the general.

And now...

3. Obama's not a fighter, but  GAH, he's fighting us!

Peter Daou circulated this new contradiction today in a hilarious email.

Barack Obama understands race in America. He, like most of us "people of color," knows that race matters in America. He knows of the sadness, anger, and disappointment many of us have in this country's racial history and the current state of race relations.

But he also understands that racism is not something a single racial group can solve with anger or "colorblindness."

When first pressed on Geraldine Ferraro's comments, the Clinton camp, through Howard Wolfson simply said:

"We disagree with her."

As a male who happens to be a sociologist well aware of the awful state of gender inequality in this country (and world), I felt a bit uncomfortable not supporting Hillary Clinton at the beginning of my exploration of the Democratic candidates. Putting a woman in the White House would be a giant leap towards shifting the social paradigm when it comes to gender. Yet, when I talked to my female friends (all 22-35 and college educated) about this issue, they almost all gave me the same reply: "I want a woman president, just not this woman." I thought about this and the kind of women my female friends are. They are going out all across the world trying to change the world working for non-profits, or studying law to go into public interest, or organizing communities, or abroad bring relief to AIDS ravaged countries. They do not allow the patriarchy to define them or grant them opportunities through connections to men. They are doing this all on their own. They love who they want, and live their lives accordingly. They are STRONG women, women I, as a man would want to be like. They are the role models I want not just for my future daughters, but also for my future sons.

They are my mother. They are Stanley Ann Dunham Soetoro. They are the women who should be President.

This is my first diary ever on Kos. I finally got an account on here a couple weeks ago after lurking on here since well before the 2004 heartbreak, er, election.

This is a diary of firsts, and how I came to these firsts. My first diary, my first contribution to a campaign, my first vote in a Democratic primary, my first attempt at fundraising, and the first candidate I can relate to on a real personal level.

Back when I was in college at Stanford (I'm now 23 and in grad school), a random classmate I didn’t know emailed me and said she wanted me to meet up with me. She told me she was at a sociology class on homelessness she was shopping (sitting in on before enrolling in) and that I was taking. She said she was really drawn to what I had to say about my motivations for taking the class (the professor asked us to explain our motivations), and wanted to meet up with me to discuss social change and social justice. I cautiously agreed and met up for dinner. I only expected to meet up with her, but when I arrived, she was there with two of her friends. I sat down and we started a conversation that really showed me how far I’ve come.