Despite the attempts of the Bush Admin and GOP supporters in the business community, our economic system is in serious trouble.   . . The current economic turndown is nearly unprecedented in US history.  Comparisons are being made with major crises in Korea and Sweden and Japan, which resulted in the collapse of major banking and financial institutions.  Comparisons are also being made with the severe recession of the early 1980s, as well as with the Great Depression.  This is no small downturn, but rather the beginning of what will probably be a lengthy and severe recession.

It's clear that the economy is going into its second recession in only 8 years.  The recovery from the first Bush recession was weak and, paired with the war in Iraq, left us with severe structural problems that are going to be difficult to solve.  It is not clear how severe the recession will be, but it's already clear that we're having a "rough landing."  This is a time of profound economic peril.  Too many Americans drank the koolaid of optimism.  We have spent in a profligate and ill-advised way.  We are the "grasshoppers" who drank and played while the sun shone on us, while the "ants" in other parts of the world were prudent and saved for the future.  Now, they are eating our lunch, and we are left out in the cold, pounding on the doors, and asking them to feed us and protect us from the disaster that we have sown for ourselves.  Now, the question for us, as individuals, is what to do with our limited resources?

At this moment, it appears that Obama will probably win SC, and that NV is going to be fairly close (Hillary doing better in rural areas, Obama in Las Vegas).  Needless to say, Hillary will probably get a sizable % and a small boost from Michigan on Tuesday, keeping her at least viable & visible (Obama and Edwards probably erred in Michiganders' eyes by not putting their names on the Michigan ballot).  Many of us have spent part of their lives in Michigan, and Hillary comes out this week looking strong there (with an edge in November, too). In FLORIDA, Obama's victory in SC (barring a come from behind upset by Edwards or a tie there), will give him a boost, but won't be enough to keep Hillary from getting the crucial boost she needs going into Feb 5th - Hillary should win Florida by at least a few % points, given her strengths there.

There is much reason to be concerned about the economy and potential for a major economic downturn in 2008.  Many economists are warning that the landing will be "rough," rather than "soft," and that we are in or will soon be in recession.  Moreover, this is likely to be a significant, rather than mild recession, accompanied by high levels of foreclosure, unemployment, business failure, soaring deficits, and continued decline in the value of the dollar. "It's the economy, stupid" will very rightfully be the mantra of the upcoming election, and the economy will probably be the major issue in the 2008 election.  This will make it even more difficult for the Republican candidate to secure election, since the nation has learned to be wary and distrustful of the economic solutions, such as supply side economics, put forth by the Republicans.  

The emotion is so high, and there has been so much passionate debate that it would probably be good for us to take a deep breath and somberly contemplate the events in the next 4 weeks, leading up to the Super Tuesday on Feb 5th. We can't predict with any certainty, but a few things seem likely.  First, Hillary will "win" in Michigan, since Obama and Edwards aren't on the ballot there.  Will it make any difference?  Perhaps it will give Hillary a slight boost, when she continues to need boost (e.g., in fundraising).  It seems clear that Obama and Edwards would have been (slightly) better off if they were on the ballot in MI.   Second, NV is very much up for grabs.  The union endorsements will probably give Obama NV, giving him a bit of a boost.

John Edwards' decision to cover Obama's back and try to knock Hillary out of the campaign was high-risk politics.  He had to go for a kind of hail mary play, since he needs to do something to keep this race from spinning quickly into Obama's hands, and to stay competitive. So far, the polling data are mixed.  On the one hand, he's up in national polls.  On the other hand, it appears that he isn't going to knock Clinton out of second place in NH. One possibility is that he knocks Hillary out of second place by Feb 5th and becomes the main contender in SC, emerging quickly enough to keep Obama from winning decisively on Super Tuesday.

It seems difficult, if not impossible, to have internet privacy at this time, for the vast majority of Americans.  Major internet providers, such as AOL, have provided huge amounts of confidential information to outsiders.

It appears that, if a computer has an "IP" address, and if the provider agrees to make all internet activity non-secure, then privacy is not achievable.

Since 70% or more of Americans online have an "IP" address, and since all providers of such services are not guaranteeing privacy, are sharing information about customer browsing, blogging, etc., their privacy is not guaranteed.

Due to the global economic expansion witnessed in recent years, commodities such as oil, gas, coal, gold, etc. have undergone major price increases, as demand for these commodities has soared.  Both the economy and the climate are, thus, "overheating."

Despite all the consciousness raising efforts of Al Gore and other environmental leaders, the situation is getting much worse, not better.  Our awareness is increasing, and we are taking small steps, such as building solar and wind energy resources, purchasing hybrid cars in increasing numbers.  However, all of our awareness and all the movements toward alternative energy are just a drop in the bucket.

Thus, we see the English and Dutch coastlines being threatened.

Rather than bashing Dems, it would be very helpful to our cause if we could help bring to the attention of the American people the specific qualities that make the Republican candidates antithetical to American values.

Instead of a general rant, a specific listing of negative characteristics of each Repub candidate would be highly effective in focusing our critique of the right wing candidates.

Y'all know what I'm talkin' about.  Carville used to be a staunch defender of liberalism, back in the days when Clinton was our heroic (and unjustly maligned) President.  But what the hell happened to him?  I'll tell you what.  His bleeping wife castrated the poor ole boy.  Damn, he's whipped.  Am I the first to suggest this?  Damn, he married that floozie, that goofy witch, and now he doesn't make a lick of sense any more.  Was it Matalin's plan to defang Carville?  Whether she intended this in the most cynical way, or whether it is a kinky twist of fate, Carville is almost unrecognizable now.  I wish he never married her, and that he would ditch her as soon as possible.  Jimbo, what the hell happened to ya?  You've been had, boy!

Bush doesn't yet seem to realize the magnitude of his defeat on Tuesday.  His tone of voice hasn't changed, and he still acts like the elegantly clothed Emperor.  He doesn't realize yet that most Americans clearly see that the Emperor has no clothes.  His arrogance has not diminished, and he continues to speak to the American people and the Democrat Party in a condescending manner. (he ignorantly and stubbornly and defiantly refuses to call it the Democratic Party).  His narcissism is undiminished.  Yet, he is clearly becoming a lame duck.  Senator Chaffee has refused to vote for Bolton's nomination as UN Ambassador.  Arlen Spector has aligned himself with Pennsylvania Democrats on some important issues that the judiciary committee will be dealing with.  Bush acts like the arrogant dictator/decider, but it may not be long before reality finally sets in.  

Looking good for Tester.  The online trading house has the odds of a Tester victory at 90%.  Since a lot of networks still haven't called VA, it's interesting to note they have Webb at 95% chance of victory.  So it looks very likely from this standpoint that Tester (and Webb) will have won by tomorrow, and that we will have a 51 seat majority in Senate.  Joe Lieberman, now, will almost certainly keep his promise to caucus with the Dems, and I think we'll be able to count on him for most legislation, with a few noteworthy and annoying exceptions.  Joe knows which way the wind is blowing, and he would be a fool to switch to the Repugnant side at this point in history, when some kind of noteworthy political realignment seems to be taking place.  So I predict 51 Dem Senators, including Joe who will continue to refer to himself as a Dem.  If Joe ever runs again in 6 years, it'll be as a Dem.

Surely, Tuesday is going to be a heck of a rollercoaster ride, with a lot of close elections.  There will be surprises in both directions, unless we win all the close elections, and win the Senate, which would be a thrilling surprise in our direction.  Seems like a good moment to take stock, look at things from a broad historical perspective, count some of our blessings.  Here are some things we can all be grateful for and proud of: 1) We matched the repubs in fund-raising the past few months, 2) We've raised a lot of important issues in front of the American people, 3) We now have more Americans identifying themselves as Dems than Repubs, 4) The Dem presence on the internet is very strong and growing stronger, 5) Despite all their dirty Rovian tricks and skullduggery, the Repubs are still in the basement with regard to national approval for the President and Republican Congress,

In 2004, the October surprise was the videotape of someone said to be bin Ladin, the Friday just before the election...and....it seems to have had the desired effect for GOP (polls flipped that weekend).  This year, it seems to be another muslim figure, Saddam Hussein, whose death verdict has just been announced.  It remains to be seen whether this may give the GOP the boost Rove et al. have sought.  Perhaps the somewhat sketchy evidence of a GOP surge (faulty polling--repub overrepresentation, perhaps?) is more than just regression to the mean.  Maybe the Hussein verdict is giving the GOP a bit of a bounce, maybe 1 or 2%.  Maybe not, but it seems likely that the Hussein verdict was engineered to help the GOP this November.

A strong case can be made that President Bush is incapacitated, seriously disabled, mentally deranged, that he has a shaky grasp on reality, that he is wantonly leading the nation into a path of self-destruction.  Literally, there is abundant evidence that Bush meets the diagnostic criteria for a number of serious mental disorders, and that his mental illness is so severe that it has led to a profound impairment in his judgement and in his ability to carry out his duties.  Interestingly, his Vice President seems to be participating in the very same pattern of self-destructive behavior.  In psychiatry, there is a term for this kind of shared psychosis or shared delusion:  It's called folie a deux, or literally a folly of two.  

The images on internet and TV are appallingly reminiscent of the end of the War in Vietnam.  The complete collapse of the American occupation of Iraq seems imminent.  It may come in the next few months, possibly sooner.  Once the situation there becomes completely untenable, American withdrawal will be inevitable.  And we, and the British, are not leaving Iraq in good shape, to put it mildly.  It is clear that this will be an ignominious defeat, a humiliating disaster.  There is very little hope now that the Americans and their few remaining allies can rescue the situation.  Things are beyond hope, now.  The only thing that remains is the utter humiliation of the American effort in Iraq, and the humiliation of Bush/Cheney/Rumsfeld and their minions, their neoconservative cohorts.

As is now crystal clear, large number of American troops with medically diagnosed mental disorders, particularly PTSD (Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder), have been sent back into combat, AGAINST MEDICAL ADVICE.  This, in and of itself is an act of gross negligence by the highest members of the executive branch, including Bush, Cheney, and Rumsfeld.  It would be possible to bring a large scale civil lawsuit against Bush, Cheney, and Rumsfeld, either before or after the end of Bush's term in office.  It is important for a civil suit to be brought, against Bush, Cheney, and Rumsfeld, either as individuals, or against the governmental agencies that decided to require war veterans with PTSD to serve in combat against medical advice.  This would seem to be an open and shut case, a clear-cut violation of basic human rights.  

Remarkably, the AFL-CIO has filed a complaint to the U.N. about the Bush Administration's NLRB decision that many nurses cannot be union members because they supervise some nursing staff.  Correctly, they point out that if this precedent remains in place, millions of American workers would be unable to be union members, since many jobs involve supervising others (e.g., union foremen and shop stewards, for example).  Even though the U.N. can't change U.S. govt policy, they can exert some influence, and it's useful to raise global awareness about the oppressive anti-labor practices of the Bush Regime.  This helps to clarify that the U.S. government is being run by thuggish leaders who are reminiscent of the Pinochets and Francos and Mussolinis of world history.  Hopefully, the AFL-CIO will continue to raise awareness, both inside and outside the U.S., and laborers will benefit.