Senator Obama, I love your campaign and what you stand for, but it's time - past time - to leave South Carolina or risk falling into the Clinton trap. The expectations game burned you in New Hampshire and now they're setting you up for Saturday. Read on for my argument why you should get out of South Carolina now, and should have already...

The Tennessean, that's who--Nashville's daily. When I wrote a local news organization to complain about their running the story, one of my main complaints was that they shouldn't be spreading the spin of the conservative nuts at the Tennessee Policy Research Center, who were widely credited with starting the story. The response I got indicated that The Tennessean was the one that requested the data themselves. I can only assume that they sent the info to the TPRC (why??? to try and cause trouble??) Sounds like the organization that started the whole kerfuffle.

As for how they got the NES information, my understanding is that under the Tennessee Public Records Act, T.C.A. 10-7-503, 504, and 506, any Tennessee citizen can request a payment history, bill history, and usage history of an address.

Early voting is done. TN's election commission has released the final chart of early/absentee turnout by county (more absentee ballots will still come in of course). Alot of people here have gotten worked up over increases in this county or that. To make proper sense of it, we have to survey the turnout model over the entire state. The honest truth is: Turnout is up everywhere in raw numbers over the last mid-term election.

So the question is not: are Democratic-leaning counties increasing their early vote totals (all counties are) and the question is not Do they reflect a higher percent of the early vote than their voter registration totals would suggest. The question is: which counties have increased their influence relative to the rest of the state. We know Shelby and Davidson will go for Ford. What we want to know is: have those 2 counties increased their share of the statewide vote, compared to previous elections?

Numbers after the flip.

Tennessee's Election Commission has updated their table of early vote (and absentee) turnout county-by-county through yesterday, 10/30. I've compared the state-wide numbers thus far to the total county-by-county early/absentee turnout in the 2004 election and the 2002 midterm that produced a Democratic Governor.

We can only tell so much from this info--don't know which side is getting out the early vote best this cycle. But there are somewhat interesting results that offer a glimmer of good news.

Numbers below the fold.

TN's Election Commission makes available the turnout numbers by county in early voting (including absentee ballots). The current report includes early voting through yesterday 10/26. I've analyzed the turnout thus far in comparison with the early voting in the Nov. '04 and Nov. '02 elections.

My hope of course was that counties in which Kerry did well in '04, and that Bredesen won handily in '02, will have seen increased turnout in this early period relative to heavily GOP counties. If the theory of conservative voters staying home will be true, we should see evidence of it in these early voting numbers.

Results below the fold.

For Harold Ford to win, a couple things need to happen:

1. Some people that voted for Bush in 2004 need to vote for Ford (Bush carried TN 57-43)

2. Turnout needs to change from '04 so that either more Democratically-inclined voters go to the polls, or fewer Republican-inclined voters do, or both

Looking at the TN early vote/abs totals thus far (county-by-county data available thru 10/24, the first 6 days of early voting) will tell us nothing about #1. But hopefully it can give some limited insight into #2. Precinct-by-precinct data would tell much more, but that's not available. Ideally, looking at the county numbers will show that the vote in heavily red counties is indeed decreasing and the vote in blue counties is increasing from 2004.

The good and the bad news from the numbers on the flip.

Just went to Gore's book signing in Nashville - the place was packed - hundreds of people and a handful of tv camera crews, books easily sold out on the day his film opens here (just around the corner from the bookstore). Gore announced that he just learned the book will be #1 on the NYT bestseller list next Sunday!

So how does the paper cover it? With news that a "protest" by hillarynow.com will greet the former VP. The "protest" was 2 freaks with a sign about how it's time for Hillary, and "no more Gore."

As my brother said, "this is how we lose elections." I expect this kind of crap from Republicans...

Excited to see the film on opening day here! Plus, Jackson Day at the Ryman Auditorium tomorrow!

http://www.climatecrisis.net

I haven't, of course, seen Episode 3 yet, but I'm amused by Republican whining that the plot amounts to a political indictment of President Bush. The Star Wars films are notable for their embrace of classic, even ancient, narrative themes of the true hero: sacrifice for others, resisting the temptation of power in favor of humanity, following your true self and calling in the face of an imposed system. As Joseph Campbell said in his interview with Bill Moyers:

The State House passed an anti-gay marriage constitutional amendment 96-7. It already passed the Senate and will be on the ballot in November, 2006, when the Senate and Gov. races will also be up. It doesn't look like Bredesen will have serious opposition (he's already the Republican in the race), but this could impact Ford's hopes for upending Frist.

County-by-county early vote turnout totals have been released by the TN election commission for the first 6 days of voting. I compared the turnout for each county to the 2000 Presidential results in that county, hoping that the Gore counties would be the highest turnout, giving Kerry an advantage. The results are both good and bad. Specifics below.

The county-by-county early vote update has come out, and it shows Shelby County (Memphis) coming on very strong after being virtually non-existent in the first 2 days.

Early voting turnout totals by county in Tennessee are available on the state election commission website for the first 4 days (through Saturday). I took the turnout for each county and multiplied it by 2000 county results, hoping to see that in this heavy state-wide early voting turnout, that strong Gore counties were leading the way and tipping the early balance for Kerry.

In 2000, Bush defeated Gore 51.1% to 47.3% in TN, and won the early vote 53.8% to 46.2%. 2004 early vote projections below the fold.

Assuming Kerry wins PA and MN, and Bush wins WV as it's looking, and there are no other surprises (and CO amendment 26 fails), that leaves Kerry 36 EVs shy of 270.

The remaining tossup states (FL, OH, WI, CO, IA, NV, NM, NH and ME) offer 1,028 possible combinations (with the possible split vote in ME). Read the outcome summary below.

Howard Dean inspired many Deaniacs in Nashville to run for County executive committee. Rodd Mullins in fact has become chairman. Now, they are organized and energized under his leadership with great plans under way and the results are showing. He announced that early voting totals (we started voting on Wednesday) in Davidson County Thursday and Friday have doubled last year's first 2 days. Davidson County went 58-40 for Gore in 2000. Statewide numbers are up as well, but not as much as in Nashville.

I still believe TN is a winnable state, but even if we come up short, the Democratic Party in Nashville is in better shape than it's been in a long time. Kudos to Rodd and the committee--way to go you all! And thanks to Howard Dean...

Davidson County
Day 1: 8,084 (2000: 3,695)
Day 2: 10,001

Moore was amazingly funny and inspiring last night (6,000 in Nashville to see him!). But 2 songs were great unexpected finds. Robert Orrall performed "Al Gore," his song about living near the former VP here in Nashville. And the Music Row Democrats--the sponsors of the event who produced and are airing pro-Democrat commercials with Morgan Freeman here in middle TN--are pushing a song from "Honky Tonkers for Truth" called "I'm Takin My Country Back." They want it on the radio. It's no established act so I don't think that's going to happen, but a fun idea. Lyrics are below the fold. Click the song-title links above to hear the tunes.

Hip rocker Ben Folds lives here in Nashville, and penned a letter to the editor of our local weekly, the Nashville Scene, in which he endorsed John Kerry for President (not a separate URL for each letter, so you have to scroll down to find his). Text of the letter below the, uh, fold, so to speak.

We're fired up in Nashville! We may not win TN, but I promise it will be alot closer to the tie Zogby was predicting earlier than the 16-point poll M-D put out.

It's a banner couple of weeks to live in Nashville. Tonight (Wed.) at The Trap (by the Stadium) at 6:30 is the final night of Kerry-oke to benefit the Music Row Democrats, Nashville's newest hippest Democratic organization. This one is going to be a huge, star-studded rally. The 10 buck admission price goes toward putting their TV ad on the air in middle Tennessee. Emmylou Harris, Steve Earle, Nanci Griffith, and many other great musicians are scheduled to be there, including some surprise guests!

Next weekend, on Saturday the 9th (just after recuperating from The Pixies on Wednesday), Michael Moore will be here as part of his "Slacker uprising tour!" Cost is only 7.50.  If you live anywhere close, get your butts over here!!

Fournier has screwed up polls/electoral vote stories in the past and is very anti-Kerry. But USAToday edited his story, about Kerry moving ads out of MO, AZ, LA, AR, in a way that says something totally false and irresponsible.  Details below the fold. Please contact USAToday and inform them of this error.