Here's an invitation to do a little soul-searching.

Everyone here will be ecstatic if we win the Senate. What if we don't?

Suppose we get 50 seats. I myself will be pretty happy: We'll be in a much better position to block truly awful judges and laws, and we'll be well-positioned to take over in 2008 (when there are nearly twice as many R seats to defend as D).

Even if we get only 49, we'll be in hugely better shape, and we should consider it a victory.

If we get 48 seats we're halfway to takeover, and in distinctly better position, but I myself will be disappointed that we didn't do better.  

Now here's the thing: I've concluded that I'll be a little more unhappy at 48 than I'll be happy at 49.  This makes my personal expectation break-even point (PEBEP) about 48 3/4.

It's no less nerdly if you click to read the rest.

I just returned from a MoveOn phonebanking event. Lots of people were there, with lots of energy. But too much of that energy was wasted, I thought.

Below the jump is the letter I sent back to MoveOn. I'd appreciate knowing how far off-base I am, or any other thoughts. Actually, I'm not sure exactly why I'm posting it here, except that it's the sort of thing I put in my own real diary, and this is supposed to be a diary!