Well, we should know today what Gary Trauner is going to do. A lot depends on Carbon County. Results are still not complete, but it's hard to see him making up the difference. Trauner's results there were not as expected, Gov Dave took that county with 58.4% of the vote in 2002 and from what I heard it's only become more Dem since that time.  Voter turnout was higher in the state overall, but appears to be lower there. None of these things suggest any fraud or error, but they are curious.

Trauner is down by 700 votes with 98% of precincts reporting. Carbon County, which includes Rawlins, is the only one remaining. Word was that we would have an answer about now. The race is very tight and I think its time to become familiar with Wyo election law. I believe there's a statue that a candidate can request a recount if the difference is less than 1%. Wyoming Kossacks, what do you know?

(From the diaries -- kos)

I'm in Jackson on Election Eve after driving through the Green River Basin with a stop for an event for Gary Trauner in Pinedale. I spent yesterday at a meet & greet in Evanston and walked around town, knocking on doors with fellow Kossack, Fishgrease, amongst others. As you have probably read, Kos has predicted that Trauner will win. Let me tell you why I think he's right.

First, the numbers favor Trauner. In the latest polling he's statistically even with Cubin and her unfavorables are greater than her favorables. Voters know Cubin and it's hard to see the undecideds breaking her way. So if Trauner can win Casper, take Laramie, Sweetwater, and Teton counties, and performs well in the north - he need not necessarily take them - he'll win. Trauner feels good about Sheridan and other counties in the north as well.

Second, my gut has me thinking about the Freudenthal race of 2002. I have Republican family members here in WY, including one who's a country commissioner, who voted for Freudenthal in 2002. Trauner is encountering the same phenomena in this campaign. At the event in Pinedale, I talked with an active Republican Party member who was conflicted about how he'll vote because of Cubin's ineffectiveness and support for corporate interests over the people of Wyoming. He may not vote for Trauner in the end, but he's experiencing the same dissatisfaction that a lot of other Wyoming people feel. Cubin is just out of touch with the state. Trauner has worked so hard, introduced himself to so many people, listened to their concerns, and that gives him what I think will push him over the edge. Cubin just hasn't been seen. Several constituents mentioned this in conversations.

As mcjoan wrote about earlier, going door-to-door with Trauner is a sight to behold. He is an affable guy who makes people feel at ease. Trauner handles tough questions and pledges of support with grace. He doesn't talk out both sides of his mouth and sticks to his ideals.

What is extraordinary is that in communities like Evanston we didn't encounter a person who offered support for Cubin. Some folks were indifferent, maybe being polite since they were supporting Cubin, but most acknowledged a need for change. Cubin has had 12 years to get results and in the views of many she's just not getting the job done. Cubin's personal attacks haven't resonated because Trauner does represent Wyoming values. He's fiscally conservative and is dismayed that Republican-controlled government doesn't want to discuss the dangerous deficit. He wants to protect personal and civil liberties; favors gun rights, and demands answers regarding the war.

Today, Trauner knocked on doors in Star Valley, making stops in Afton and Thayne. Star Valley a very religious part of Wyoming that borders the Utah & Idaho and he faces challenges in districts like this. There he is though, fighting for every vote because as he says, "I just don't want to lose by a small number of votes and regret not walking that extra block. I will work for all of Wyoming"

He then made his way to Pinedale for a radio interview and then a meet & greet at Stockman's. He worked the room so well, connected with a lot of voters. I sat near an undecided voter who was concerned about abortion and conservation of public lands. During Trauner's speech, she was frequently nodding her head in agreement. Afterwards, she said she was convinced that Gary was a strong leader and could be good for Wyoming. She thinks she will give him a chance.

As I said, I made my way up to Pinedale through the Green River Basin and made a stop in Kemmerer. There I ran into a Trauner volunteer, Tim Gaughan, on the street. He's been canvassing for Gary for almost as long as Gary. Kemmerer is BP, Chevron, and mining territory with a fair number of union members. Gary should do well here. Outside of town, there are real cowboys living in trailers. They're tending to the sheep with the help of their dog and some horses. Further north, you enter Halliburton country where they're pumping oil and gas out of the ground. This is tough area for dems and the few folks I spoke with in Marbleton said they weren't voting Democratic, but they weren't voting Republican either. They weren't voting period.

Even though this race looked like a long shot a few months ago, I expect to be celebrating here in Jackson tomorrow night. As a bumper sticker in the Snake River Brewing Company says, "Ding Dong The Witch is Dead, Replace Barbra (sic) Cubin."

(From the diaries. Wilburtronic is a friend with strong ties to Wyoming who will be following the Trauner campaign the last dwindling hours of this election -- kos)

"Godspeed. God bless. I believe the Democrats are on the right path." That quote comes from Rock Springs mayor Tim Kaumo. He's a Republican in the most Democratic county in Wyoming - Sweetwater. Kauomo said this during a rally in Rock Springs for Wyo Democrats like Gary Trauner and Governor Dave Freudenthal, amongst others vying for seats in state and county government. The star of the night of course is Trauner.

Trauner is the brightest hope for many I've encountered who are tired of the ineffective and downright peculiar Barbara Cubin. When she's claiming in the debate that she's not the one running a negative campaign, which aired last night and folks could hear the hearty chuckles from the audience, she's throwing stones and filing complaints against constituents who oppose her.

From the Republicans for Trauner's Steve Simonton:

Simonton also says the Cubin campaign had to file 47 amended reports since 2001, and the fact of turning them in to the FEC is consistent with her combative approach to her campaign.

"If she isn't out there threatening to slap someone, then she's filing complaints against them or sending out fliers full of lies and innuendos against her opponent," says Simonton. "I have to tell you this is the most vicious, deceitful campaign I've ever seen.

Judging from the news and people I've talked to things are not getting better for Cubin in the last few days. As previously reported, people are concerned about the Iraq War, budget deficits, curtailing of civil liberties, and access to public lands, especially in Rock Springs where the Red Desert is chock full of coal bed methane.

In the north, which is more reliably Republican, Trauner has made inroads and according to him his chances look good in places like Buffalo and Sheridan. According to Adam Ruff, Trauner campaign's Field Director, walkers in Hot Springs County found support for Trauner in over 60% of the doors they knocked on. If yard signs are any indication Trauner's chances are good in places like Story, where there were 5 Trauner signs on the road into town to 1 Cubin sign, and really you had to drive through town and onto a dead end gravel road to see it.

I ended up in Rock Springs after a 750-mile journey that's taken me through Story, Buffalo, Casper, Cheyenne, Laramie, Rock Springs, and now Evanston and some other stops in between. I visit Wyoming frequently since I have in laws in Story and Gillette and have been a big fan of the state. I could think of no better way to spend the last days of the election season - I already voted by absentee - then to drive around talking to people, promoting Trauner, and seeing him in action, going door-to-door to get his message out. He is one of the most charismatic people I have ever met and you can understand why knocking on over 15,000 doors has been successful.

In Casper, I stopped by Trauner HQ and met staff (Linda Stoval - Campaign Manager, Adam Ruff, Maggie Fowler - Office Manager and so much more) and volunteers. They're a dedicated bunch who feel they're helping Wyoming and democracy. They're filled with a lot of passion and are huge promoters of Trauner's positive message. They're also excited at the prospect of putting a dem from WY in the House and ready for a fight whenever a baseless accusation or outright lie from Cubin's campaign rears its ugly head.

The latest ads from the NRCC are an abomination. The ad claims that because Trauner is from NY that he's not right for Wyoming. But get this... Cubin is a - GASP - a Californian.  And as Trauner pointed out, Cubin is letting her campaign be run by folks in DC. The New York label just isn't sticking since a lot of folks here are also from out of state. I believe that Gov Dave said it best last night that Trauner chose Wyoming to raise his kids and that is what's important, that says a lot about Wyoming.

Anyway, I will begin walking with Trauner today in Evanston He will then head north through Star Valley then over to Pinedale before getting home on Election Day. I plan on sending dispatches about the last hours of Trauner's campaign. I will be in Jackson on Election Night ready to let this allegedly great Democratic wave sweep over the country, even here in the landlocked Cowboy State.