Daily Kos

Countering the Kerry Smears

Thu Feb 12, 2004 at 05:09:04 AM PDT

Seeing as the level of Kerry-bashing on the boards has reached a fever pitch, it seems like a good time to address the most egregious -- and oft-reported -- anti-Kerry vitriol. Like him or don't, but trafficking in lies and misrepresentations about the man's record does a great disservice to both the large number of Democrats who are voting for him and the overall level of our civil discourse.

And so here are, in order of frequency, the charges I've seen thrown around most often on dKos:

1) Kerry voted for the war!

This a simplistic, reductive shorthand that bears little resemblance to reality. Although it is unfortunate that, starting with the Gulf of Tonkin resolution, congress has consistently abdicated its responsibilities under the War Powers Act, that's our current political reality. The power to wage war (or undertake a "police action" or "limited military incursion") now rests almost exclusively in the Executive Branch, and there is little that a divided Senate can do to stop it. By voting for the Iraq Resolution, Kerry was providing what he considered necessary leverage to hold Saddam Hussein accountable. He made his intentions explicit in a speech on the senate floor the day of the vote:

"I am voting to give this authority to the President for one reason and one reason only: to disarm Iraq of weapons of mass destruction. In giving the President this authority, I expect him to fulfill the commitments he has made to the American people in recent days -- to work with the United Nations Security Council to adopt a new resolution setting out `tough, immediate' inspections requirements and to `act with our allies at our side' if we have to disarm Saddam Hussein by force. If he fails to do so, I will be the first to speak out."

Although many seem willing to forget it, the atmosphere of fear and apprehension bred by September 11th was still very strong at that point (only eleven months after the attacks), and the possible threat represented by Hussein -- while in no way connected to the threat from Al Qaeda -- was not easily dismissed. Kerry was simply extending the same level of good faith that he would (and will) expect as Commander in Chief. At the same time, he made it abundantly clear what sort of reasonable, multilateral actions he expected the President to take. When Bush failed miserably in his duties, Kerry began to speak out vigorously, as promised.

The final point, as many have made before, is that Kerry's reasoning closely mirrors that of the vast majority of Americans. He was not "duped" by Bush, but felt it important to speak with a strong, united voice against those who would do us harm. Once Bush abused that trust, Kerry was able to convey his anger and disenchantment to the voters without crowing "I told you so." Instead, his message is "We're all in this together. As President, I will be tough, and keep you safe, without being reckless."

In fact, one of the smartest lines he uses on the stump is "If you think that I would have taken this nation to war as President Bush did, then don't vote for me."

2) Kerry voted against the $87 Billion funding request, thereby leaving our troops naked and without bullets in Iraq!

I find it amusing that people who rail against the Halliburton-enriching boondoggle that is the Iraqi reconstruction pretend that Kerry "voted against the troops." Kerry worked very hard, along with Sen. Joe Biden, to try to make this exorbitant supplemental less damaging to America's overall economy. But his efforts were, of course, stifled by the Republican-controlled Senate, and so -- after delivering an excoriating speech stating that "The issue isn't what we're spending, it's what we're buying" -- he voted no as a matter of conscience, knowing full well that the money was already on its way to lining KB&R's corporate pockets.

3) Kerry voted for No Child Left Behind!

You mean the bill co-authored by his friend and political patron Teddy Kennedy? Yes he did. NCLB is not, as many pretend, inherently evil. What it is is criminally under-funded and overly draconian toward underperforming schools. Under a President Kerry, you can be assured that it will be properly funded and used as a means to lift schools up, not punish them for failing.

4) Kerry voted for the PATRIOT Act!

So did every other Senator (including the late, great Paul Wellstone) except Russ Feingold. Like I said, the "climate of fear" issue was a very real one, and there was a general sense that the government needed a bit more leeway in its pursuit of terrorists. To his credit, Kerry strongly supported the all-important "sunset" provisions, which would roll back large sections of the law under a Kerry presidency, and subsequently co-sponsored the SAFE Act (placing limitations on the use of surveillance and search warrants) and the Personal Records Privacy Act (limiting the arbitrary access of the government to library, bookseller, and other personal records).

5) Kerry only won Iowa and New Hampshire through dirty tricks!

The allegations of push-polling, late-night robocalls, and Kerry's ties to the infamous "Osama" ads are everywhere on these boards. But let's review the facts as we know them:

Despite a raft of charges in Iowa (Gephardt claimed a Dean precinct captain informed his campaign that Deanies were going to infiltrate the process, Trippi snapped to a GQ reporter that misleading robo-calls were probably emanating from the Kerry campaign), only three staffers were ever dismissed for unbecoming conduct. Two were from the Dean campaign (young staffers who had misrepresented themselves as Iowa voters in order to infiltrate a Kerry campaign headquarters) and one from Kerry (an overly argumentative "debater" who quoted a Vermont newspaper editorial that referred to Dr. Dean as an "environmental racist" for his waste-disposal policies).

This is the sum total of proven allegations -- and it runs 2-1 against Dean. Now, there were all kinds of rumored Kerry, Dean and Gephardt sniping going on in Iowa (Kerry staffers supposedly spreading the "Dean vouched for a wife-beater" story, Perfect-Stormers telling voters that Kerry had cancer and would die in office), but not one instance has been authenticated.

If there were any systematic, campaign-approved illegal tactics like push-polling (placing calls that claim to be from a non-partisan polling agency, then disseminating negative information through loaded questions), recorded evidence would have almost certainly surfaced by now. One or two mean-spirited pranks doth not a conspiracy make.

As far as the Americans for Jobs and Healthcare ads, it's pretty obvious that this was a shadow organization for more traditional Union concerns, almost all of whom had strong ties to Gephardt. Yes, it solicited contributions from key Kerry, Clark, Edwards and Dean (!!) people, but many of them were aghast at the hard-line, GOP-style ads the group produced, and quickly withdrew funding. Trying to tie a piddling $15,000 contribution from a Kerry contributor back to the Senator himself -- or implying that the fact that the Torch contributed to both AFJ&H and Kerry somehow makes him culpable -- is grasping at the most pathetically flimsy of straws.

5) Kerry has taken more special interest money than anyone, ever!

Kerry has refused PAC money for each and every one of his campaigns, which means that all of his contributions came from individual donors. Does the fact that 50 members of the Boston-based law firm Skadden, Arps,  Slate, Meagher & Flom all gave $2,000 individual contributions to Kerry last year make him their puppet? I don't think so, but everyone is entitled to their own opinion. The point is, Kerry has run four tough Senate races, and had to do so in Boston, a very high-dollar media market. He voted for the McCain-Feingold Campaign Finance bill, and will obviously do a hundred times better on this issue than Bush once elected.

And, as much as you might not like it, Kerry's fund-raising prowess (and the fact that he's forgone the spending limits) will actually allow him to stand toe-to-toe with the $200 million Rove cash machine during the general election.

Well, that's all I can handle right now. This diary has obvious swelled to elephantine proportions, but I think that it's all stuff that needed to be said. To get a more proactive -- and less defensive -- overview of Kerry, I highly recommend these diaries by David and Kid Oakland.

Let's all try to be a little nicer out there, okay?

Kerry's Worst-Case Scenario (Hint: It's Still a Win)

Wed Jan 28, 2004 at 03:21:02 PM PDT

Hoping for a brokered convention? Think again.

Assuming that Kerry stays in the race until the very end, here's how the electoral math stacks up in the most hard-fought nomination scenario.

First, the math: the presumptive Democratic nominee needs to gather 2,161 delegate votes by July's convention to get the nomination. And remember, there are no more winner-take-all states, so every state's delegates will be apportioned by the percentage of votes cast for each candidate.

Kerry already has 38% of Iowa's 45 delegates, or roughly 17, and 39% of New Hampshire's 22, which adds another 9. With his current momentum, he's almost certain to place 1st, 2nd or 3rd in every remaining contest.

For the sake of argument, I'm going to say that, for the remaining states, a first place finish equals 50%, a second place equals 35%, and a third place equals 15% (this is, obviously, just a rough formula, weighted to compensate for the gathering momentum that the front-runner will gain going into later contests, where first place will be an ever-larger percentage of available votes).

Here's how I see Kerry's run playing out. (Note: this worst-case scenario anticipates an extremely tough race, with Edwards dominating the South and Dean, while losing many early contests, staying just competitive enough to mount one last push on Super Tuesday.)

Since I'm trying to foresee the absolute worst, I've altered a few of my earlier predictions -- I now have Kerry coming in third in the D.C. Caucuses on Valentine's Day, behind both Dean and Sharpton, then losing Wisconsin and Utah as Dean pours the last of his money and momentum into these Super Tuesday lead-up states. (On ST itself, Dean snags California and Vermont, while Edwards carries Georgia).

Now for the fun!

[Each entry ordered by state, place, number of delegates won]

Feb. 3rd
South Carolina - 2nd - 23
Missouri - 1st - 37
Arizona - 1st - 27
Delaware - 2nd - 5
New Mexico - 2nd - 9
Oklahoma - 2nd - 14
North Dakota - 2nd - 5

Feb. 7
Michigan - 1st - 64
Washington - 2nd - 27

Feb. 8
Maine - 1st - 12

Feb. 10
Tennessee - 2nd - 24
Virginia - 2nd - 29

Feb. 14
Nevada - 1st - 12
Washington DC - 3rd - 2

Feb 17th
Wisconsin - 2nd - 25

Feb. 24th
Idaho - 1st - 9
Hawaii - 1st - 10
Utah - 2nd - 8

March 2 (Super Tuesday)
California - 2nd - 130
Georgia - 2nd - 30
Rhode Island - 1st - 11
Connecticut - 1st - 25
Maryland - 1st - 35
Massachusetts - 1st - 47
Vermont - 2nd - 5
Ohio - 1st - 70
Minnesota - 1st - 36
New York - 1st - 120

March 8
American Samoa - 1st - 2

March 9
Mississippi - 2nd - 12
Florida - 1st - 88
Louisiana - 1st - 30
Texas - 2nd - 68

March 13
Kansas - 1st - 17

March 16
Illinois - 1st - 78

March 20
Wyoming - 1st - 7
Alaska - 1st - 7
Guam - 1st - 2

April 13
Colorado - 1st - 27

April 17
Virgin Islands - 1st - 2

April 27
Pennsylvania - 1st - 76

May 4
Indiana - 1st - 34
North Carolina - 2nd - 31

May 11
Nebraska - 1st - 12
West Virginia - 1st - 14

May 18
Oregon - 1st - 23
Arkansas - 2nd - 12
Kentucky - 1st - 25

June 1
Alabama - 2nd - 26
South Dakota - 1st - 7

June 6
Puerto Rico - 1st - 26

June 8
New Jersey 1st - 54
Montana - 1st - 8

So, by convention time Kerry would have accumulated 1,511 delegates (and almost certainly more, since I think the chances of Edwards staying in the race past May 4th, where I have him winning his home state, are incredibly minimal).

At that point, there is no way that the lion's share of the 800 Super Delegates don't break for Kerry - after all, he's won the majority of the contests, and has the largest delegate count by far. So on the first ballot, with at least 650 of the Supers voting for him, Commander Kerry becomes the Democratic nominee. As I said, this is a very tough scenario - it's far more likely to become a Kerry blow-out much earlier. But even under the worst of circumstance, I think the chances of a brokered convention are pretty much nil. Sorry to burst your bubble.


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