Unless his flunkies screw up, you'll also have credentials in your registration package, but just to make sure you don't miss the open bar, the free food, and the free rides (they have crazy rollercoaster rides atop the 100+ floor Stratosphere), get on the list.

Here's the details:

Blogosphere at the Stratosphere Party
Hosted by Gov. Warner
Friday, June 9th
9-11pm
Stratosphere Casino Hotel Tower

Also, Governor Warner is speaking on Saturday at 12:30 for all attendees with Q & A's following... See you at the top of the Stratosphere Friday night.

For Immediate Release: YearlyKos Announces Panel Discussion on the Impact of the South on U.S. Politics

From the Blogosphere: The South is a large region of the U.S., but does it hold an important place in the country's politics? "The South's Importance in the American Political Arena" is a panel discussion by a group of acclaimed political writers - Thomas Schaller, Jerome Armstrong, Steve Jarding and Dave "Mudcat" Saunders - who have written books on the topic being published in 2006.

And then the long-tail Crashing the Gate tour kicks off on Monday. Markos will be at most every stop (and we have a bunch to add), while I am mostly going to have time to do the swings (Northwest & CA in April, South in early May, then the East coast). I'm looking forward to the stop at Powell's in Portland-- my old grad school digs. For the California trip, we plan on working up the coast for four days, from LA to SF, so if you have short stops (driving) along that coastal way, we'll try and work them in. We'll also travel with Matt Bai for a bit on the coast, and if there are other national writers (maybe Robert Greenwald wants to send along an intern to film a short doc?) that want to come along, let us know (we'll likely get a Van). We are also in the works of adding a more stops in the South in early May. For the east coast leg, we have a lot more cities to add, so if you are anywhere within 8 hours of DC, go at it with helping to organize a tour stop in May.

Judging by the (very fun) romp we had with the Kossacks in NYC the other night at Yaffa's, Markos will be buying a lot of beers for the Progressive Partners--bring your book!

Oh, btw, for the YearlyKos, I'll announce the panel I'm doing. It's a debate about the relevance of the South (for example, in Presidential elections) for the Democratic Party going forward. I will be moderating the forum, and have the authors from Foxes in the Henhouse (Steve Jarding, Dave 'Mudcat' Saunders), and Tom Schaller (of upcoming book, Whistling Past Dixie) will be along to provide differing opinion-- this ought to be lively.

Ok, maybe that wasn't so quick... no one ever accused a blogger of having writers cramp (x-posted on DD).

We use technology to enhance the things we care about. What's happened online didn't really invent something new, it's merely revitalized the local community that's dissipated in this nation over the past century. That's really a concise explanation of why Dean for America's netroots during 2002-2003 happened, and why we continue here today beyond that moment. Xian has interviewed many of those that took part in the effort, showing what it meant to get politically involved locally through the internet, and becoming a decentralized movement that emerged into a collective power with Dean as a spokesperson. The book provides the reader an indepth look into the thoughts of those that shaped the technology that was used by the decentralized movement called Dean for America. But xian reaches beyond the political participation, and the tech-speak side of the blogosphere, into the greater community phenomenon that's happening online, and therein presents a much fuller grasp of what it all means and where it's all going. The political blogs reside within a greater sphere, if you will, and what we experience through political participation on Daily Kos, MyDD, and others, is happening with all sorts of issues and life topics on different parts of the internet. Issues such as group support, transactions, and identity. The book is rich with actual experiential description.

For us, blogging is the epicenter of all this that's happening toward a renewed democratic expression.  It is community, it is about action, it is about transforming the political system. It's through the real work of many that this will happen. In this book, xian does the historical work of putting the pieces together through interviewing many (yes, kos is interviewed in the book) of those bloggers, techies, leading thinkers, and by sharing his own ordinary online experiences.

The Power of Many is a snapshot of this time, just as it's happened, describing the moment that the web reached critical mass and started to have a signficant impact on the real world.

As of this morning, $4,777.27 had been raised through 126 donations, be sure to add a penny to those online donations so that it’s tracked back from Stork For Congress to DailyKos.

OK, so let me tell you about the campaign. The candidate Jim Stork is not your typical candidate. Jim’s sorta like this part of Florida’s version of Vermont’s Ben & Jerry’s-- not now, but back when they were starting out. Stork is a small businessman, the founder/owner of Stork’s Bakery, so he knows a bit about fiscal responsibility, and yet he’s a progressive-minded community activist, and was elected Mayor of Wilton Manors, defeating the incumbent in 2002 by a landslide margin, so he knows about governing too. Part of what makes Jim's run for Congress so exciting is the potential replacement of the Republican Shaw’s vision with Stork's. Shaw was one of the main proponents of the Welfare 'reform' bill in the mid 1990’s, and would like nothing better than to 'reform' Social Security, all the while stating that he’s securing it's future. In other words, he’s your typical repug that votes with Bush 94% of the time, and yet claims he’s a moderate.

What makes Jim Stork’s campaign click is Danielle. She's got a long history of working Florida campaigns and fundraising for the DCCC throughout the South, and left politics a few years ago, landing, in all places, with directing operations at the Stork Bakery in Wilton Manors. Stork's vision rekindled Danielle's political fire, beginning with his successful mayoral race. Now, Stork has his eyes on winning Florida's 22nd CD. Knowing the map of this CD, the hurdle of name ID is a big one, and not only is it going to take a lot of financial resources for the media markets of Palm Beach in the north, and Miami in the south, it’s also going to take a field operation that scares the shit out of Shaw. I’ll tell you, I walked out of there convinced that the vision and know-how is there to win the 22nd. Here’s a few of the members of the campaign crew in the Ft. Lauderdale office. Bill Vaynes, who heads up the campaigns operations –the map man— is seated, Danielle is standing on your right, Baily Woolfstead, an intern from EMILY’s List, is in the middle, and Abby Ross, the campaign’s scheduler is on the left. We didn’t just pore over CD maps and talk the district politics, we also visited the Bakeries, so in the extended entry, I included a few more photos of those, and the campaign’s HQ, which is right on Hwy 1 in Ft Lauderdale, 2939 N. Federal Way.

If photos like this are an indication, and the forecasted record turnout does materialize, Aznar's party, which went along with the Bush-led invasion of Iraq against popular opinion, will get a huge stamp of rejection in Spain today.

Tom Reynolds is pretty good with the political junkie analysis, though it'd be a good exercise to fact check his numbers.  One thing is for sure, Reynolds will likely be talking less smack now that he's got his hands full with a serious contender in his own backyard, the NY 26th CD.

That's because Republican Jack Davis, the president of I Squared R Element Co. Inc., a manufacturing company that's had a dozen layoffs since March of 2000, has changed parties, committed $500,000 of his own money, and plans to run against Reynolds.  The Buffalo News, Businessman eager to take on Reynolds, provided an overview of the possible match-up.  Reynolds hasn't had to even break a sweat since at least the '98 elections, so hopefully Davis will swing through and give Reynolds some heat.

As HD showed, the money will come. The belief in scarcity is not found in the recipe of success. From Dave Roberts email: I’ve got $200 to match Jerome's for a Georgia Democrat with un-knocking knees.

Also, while cross-linking with Democratic Party, if you haven't already seen, check out The Stakeholder, the DCCC's blog. Alongside the DNC's Kicking Ass blog, it's clear that the Democratic Party has arrived in the blogosphere.

Georgia's not that red, and the demographics are trending Democrat (Latino growth is high, and African-American growth is 3rd highest in the nation).  Gore lost to Bush 54-43 percent, writing it off in 2000. 43 percent is what Gore got in Colorado in 2000, and that's an open seat that Democrats look likely to now win.  It's not going to be easy in Georgia, but it is doable.

The GOP has three credible primary candidates in Johnny Isakson ($2.9M), Herman Cain ($1.5M), & Mac Collins ($1M)  While those numbers might look prohibitive, they will also be mightily depleted, battling it out amongst each other until a primary on July 20th, and then a run off amongst the top two, on August 10th.

The filing deadline in Georgia is April 30th, less than 50 days away from now.  Who is out there that can run?  

Mary Squires was the only announced candidate for a while, which wasn't very encouraging. Nadine Thomas and Gary Leshaw have recently entered the race. Though neither of them have top tier fundraising numbers yet, Leshaw might have trial lawyer connections.  The ideal situation has a Democrat having $1-2M on hand at the beginning of August, going into the general ahead of the Republican candiate that emerges broke from the GOP primary.

IN the general, the Libertarians and social conservative parties are going to peel 2-3% off of Bush from the right again (maybe some of that will trickle down), and there's going to be a stay-home factor as the result of Perdue's flag gambit in 2002, and maybe Max Cleland will tell Zell Miller to shut up.

In fact, there's the main reason for why so many Democrats have declined-- they fear Zell Miller calling them a weak-knee liberal and stating he'll vote for the Republican candidate.  I'd give $200 right to an A-list Democratic Senate candidate in Georgia that stands up to Zell Miller and takes on the Republicans, and I'm not alone.  Every seat counts, let's hope that the DSCC doesn't give an open seat away for free.

Update: Some of the comments confuse Georgia election results, which are trending Republican (though not overwhelmingly), with Georgia demographics, which are trending Democrat. The latter is the clear case in Georgia, as seen from the 2000 census results:

GEORGIA: Blacks, 2,235,897, up 27.7 percent; Hispanics, 239,566, up 119.9 percent; Asian and Pacific Islanders, 160,566, up 109.0 percent; American Indian and Alaska Native, 18,717, up 36.5 percent; whites, 5,373,060, up 15.9 percent.

Here's a background article on the population trends of Georgia: The African American/Black percentage of Georgia’s population rose from 27 percent to 28.7 percent. This is the highest level in fifty years. Hispanics, who can be of any race, grew from only 108,000 in 1990 to 435,000 in 2000. They now number over 5 percent of the state.

While there's always a lag time with demographics and election results, the demographics of Georgia are trending Democrat.

Burlington's DFA is in its last days, the current HQ lease ends with March, and close to none of the HQ staff remain, even longtime Governor Dean office workers are moving on.  Not a single person on the HQ's webteam of "wizards & stars" is staying on with the new organization.  Check out the blog, and you'll find a couple of Iowa field crewmembers that landed off the bus in Burlington, and are now volunteering to run BFA.  The outgoing transition for DFA staff was non-existent.  Being placated by the smooth talking Neel, a few former DFA staffers have lingered on, enjoying the free-flowing presence of Dean in the office, perhaps expecting `the movement' to continue; but the implicit transition message  --not unfriendly-- that's been given to them is to transition your way to the door.  

What Dean and Gore's Neel appear to be doing is forming a non-campaign organizational staff of about 30-35, and composed of sidelined allies. The move, with a lower prioritized webteam comprised of three, abandons the Trippi-led decentralized netroots structure of DFA in favor of something more establishment-like in structure, leaving the decentralized netroots movement to run on its own, outside their command.  

Dean will support Kerry this November (they are meeting next week in DC), but Dean, like everyone, knows the March potential of Kerry could be an empty November promise of Bush.  It's plausible.  Nader polls 2-3 times his 2000 showing in two recent polls--probably a high water mark, but still.  Kerry might do everything right that he could, and still wind up losing a plurality victory to Bush 8 months from now.  The GOP, like the LA Lakers, has been off its game for months, but the only peak that matters is in the playoffs.  

Perhaps this analysis is tilting at windmills -(like that Iowa prediction, ha)- and nominee Kerry will build a unity bridge in 2004 that makes the difference, wins the Presidency and make us all happy campers.  The stated rationale for Dean's new organization will be to "hold Kerry's feet to the fire" and it should, throughout the election, and even more so during the possible Kerry Presidency.  If Kerry really wants the Presidency, he'll give Dean power and a pulpit.  

Howard Dean, in making such a clean break from the decentralized netroots origins within which he rose to national prominence, and embracing Gore's out-of-power establishment even further, solidifies an out-of-power alliance that would seek to fill the leadership void in the wake of a 2004 Kerry defeat.  Dean's DNC-like organization will be Plan B for January of 2005 for the Democratic Party and the DNC (not to mention, there's also a plan that starts with a C).

Whatever the determination, this highlights the new role of 527's.  While it's certain that the new CFR have had beneficial effects of making the Democratic Party depend more upon small doners, the 527 groups, collecting unlimited "soft money" donations, seem like an unintended consequence.  Especially for Republicans in Congress, calling the 527's a Democratic "shadow party" and threatening investigation, they find themselves aghast at how the groups might level the field against Bush & the Republicans strong institutional-backed fundraising advantage.  

The Republicans will go this route for a while, trying to flog groups like Americans Coming Together, the Media Fund, and George Soros.  Yet, they are also determining just how far the 527 groups can go with Americans for a Better Country seeking out FEC guidance.  Once the FEC provides legal footing for the soft money to flow, the Republican's shadow will open up shop with their own 527's.  

Sure, the 527 will be used as a means to register and turn-out voters; but overwhelmingly, we'll see it used for effective political "hit man" TV advertising, negative to the hilt, all summer long until September 2nd.  On that day, the 527's will no longer be allowed on the airwaves, except for one big loophole-- the internet.

Quick math would lead one to see that Kerry's spending in 2003 of $27 million added $11.2 million in January, putting him at over $38 million beginning in February.

So, for Kerry to keep his pledge to abide in spending less than $45 Million before the Democratic nominee was chosen, he'd had less than $7 million to spend beginning February 1st, three weeks ago, until... Hey, has Kerry's campaign yet admitted to breaking the pledge? The nominee has not been chosen, but the expenditure math thus far ($11M in Jan, 3 weeks into Feb) leads to the conclusion that Kerry has already spent $7 Million in Feb, and is now over $45 million.

John Edwards is abiding by the public financing laws for matching funds, so he's limited to $45 million in total expenditures. Through January, Edwards has raised $22.5 million, including $5 million in public financing. Beginning with February, that left Edwards with $22.5 million remaining in funds available to him, combined from both raised and matching (with the next public matching infusion due on March 1st).

As for Bush:

As for Edwards, in the short-term, with the matching funds, he's probably on parity with Kerry for the March primaries; but in the long-haul of the next four months, he's going to be riding on a shoestring and walloped in bought advertising.

For Kerry, he can always pile on Fleet-laden leveraged debt that Heinz can pay off later, and it is what it is. In the short-term against Edwards, Kerry's left with arguing some thin-cred nuance like, "the media has declared me the nominee". But if Edwards catches, Kerry's also going to have to figure out a way to nuance that his spending more than $45 million, besides breaking his pledge, is about beating George Bush and the special interests and not just about grabbing an advantage in the primaries.

Right now, "Kerry broke his pledge" is probably not the kind of headline that Kerry's campaign wants to see right now, but that's the gamble of a gimmick that he took.

Edwards followed up on his endorsement from Madison's Capital Times with another this morning (post-Zogby) in  Wisconsin's largest newspaper, Milwaukee's Journal Sentinal.

Here's some further analysis of the Zogby poll:

Among the favorable/unfavorable ratings, Edwards and Kerry are essentially tied, with Edwards having a 4% less unfavorable rating than Kerry.

Kerry: 71/22
Edwards: 67/18
Dean: 61/30

Dean's done a good job, spending a week campaigning in Wisconsin, of changing some opinions, and raising his numbers.  Among those aged 18-24, Dean's favorable rating is the highest, at 84 percent.  Kerry scores his highest among those aged +70, at 81 percent.

Amongst the open primary likely voters, all three candidates beat Bush:

Kerry 59, Bush 32
Edwards 55, Bush 34
Dean 53, Bush 36

Interestingly, on this number, amongst Republican voters, Dean (9%) bests both Edwards (7%) and Kerry (5%) in crossover votes.  This is offset amongst Democratic voters, where Kerry (2%) bests both Edwards (5%) and Dean (9%), among those voting for Bush.

The dynamics seem to have tightened a bit, but the same trends are present as prior competitive contests.  Dean bests the others amongst the younger voters, Kerry crushes the others amongst the older voters, and Edwards places nearly even across the age groups. Overall, Kerry is thought by 74% to be likely to beat Bush in 2004, Edwards by 53%, and Dean by 42%.

As for a potential few wildcards that are present.  The newspaper endorsements might cause older readers to take pause, so that's where Edwards might take away from Kerry.  Among those who didn't primary in 2000, that are planning on voting in 2004, Kerry only leads Dean by two, 39-37 percent.  Dean also leads Kerry among single voters, 38-31 percent; but amongst the married, Kerry leads with 51 percent.

There's obviously been some movement toward Dean in the last week that shows up in this poll, and again, Edwards is showing his late surge.  Can Kerry hold his double-digit lead?  Probably, his support is stronger, surprisingly, than either Edwards or Dean. There would need to be a perfect scenario for either Dean or Edwards to come close (Dean strong in turnout, Edwards taking from Kerry).  Kerry leads in all regions of the state, it's his to lose, a win by less than 5% would count as a shocker.  

True, things look pretty boring from here on out, but presidential nomination campaigns always narrow down to just two people.  If Dean gets 3rd in Wisconsin, his role of frontrunner-turned-insurgent to be the alternative-to-Kerry is over, and the contest gets down to a choice of Edwards or Kerry.  That race could shift before 3/2.  Edwards has already overtaken Dean for second in Wisconsin, but Kerry has a +30% lead.  Depending on how much that changes before Tuesday might determine the lead-in for the next two weeks of campaigning between the frontrunner and the alternative.

Discuss the implications.

It looks like it's on to Wisconsin for all four candidates.  Kerry is taking a few days off, until Friday, he's gotta go raise some of that Torricelli money.

Update: On a follow-up from BushOut.TV:

Margie Burns, the writer quoted by BushOut.TV above, in JRNL.com:

Update II: According to the AP, it looks like Torricelli may have broken some more laws:

Second:

Monday, Dean changed his mind. He addressed a crowd of about 300 people at UWGB, repeating how important Wisconsin's votes are to his future. But after his speech, in a one-on-one interview with Action 2 News reporter Sarah Thomsen, Dean said he will not give up even if he loses here a week from Tuesday.

So,

No one is getting out, Kerry is getting less than 50% of the delegates... even if Kerry continues his plurality wins, if no one gets out (and why should they, given the internet funding) we'll have a brokered convention.  If one of the other candidate starts to catch hold (ala Reagan in 1976), we could have a contested brokered primary.