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66 percent of experts disagree with surge

Thu Feb 15, 2007 at 08:02:40 AM PDT

That's one of the more interesting finding of The Terrorism Index, a joint effort by Foreign Policy magazine and the Center for American Progress to survey terrorism and foreign policy experts, both lefty and righty, on the GWOT (are we still calling it that?).

Actually, 69 percent of the experts would like to see a surge of troops in Afghanistan, something that may be in the works already. Did you know that the number of U.S. troops there is up to 27,000 now? That place is quickly going to hell in a handbasket. 57 percent of the experts think the Taliban is getting stronger.

Other interesting findings after the jump:

Poll

Is the U.S. winning the war on terror?

3%1 votes
92%24 votes
3%1 votes

| 26 votes | Vote | Results

Fisking Joel Mowbray

Sun Oct 24, 2004 at 07:50:56 PM PDT

Any Kosmopolitans up to the fun task of discrediting Redstate.org's new super awesome reporter, Joel Mowbray of the highly respected Washington Times?

Because a look back at his record provides plenty of opportunities.

For instance, take this Townhall gem:

It's not exactly as if Saddam's Iraq was a weapons-free zone.  Halfway through his team's search, Kay had already found substantial evidence of WMD-related programs and believed he would uncover hard "proof." [...]

Even in a world of uncertain intelligence--probably a permanent reality until God decides to spy for us--a president's job is to guard against the worst potential scenarios.  Right up until the war, Saddam was developing WMDs, the intelligence community thought he had stockpiles, and history shows that he has used them.

Black voters: breaking towards the wrong man?

Wed Oct 20, 2004 at 02:17:10 PM PDT

Update [2004-10-20 18:28:2 by praktike]: changed to reflect the fact that I'm not an asshole or a troll. My apologies. It's just that I warned about this a while ago, and was ridiculed for it then. It cost me my trusted user priviliges for a day or so. TAPPED worries that Black voters may be breaking towards Bush.

The proximate issue seems to be gay marriage, but I think it's more than that. Kerry simply doesn't connect with black voters on the same emotional level that Clinton and even Gore did. I guess there's little that can be done about this, but there you have it.

It doesn't seem like Ruy Texeiria is paying attention to this issue.

Is the Kerry campaign?

Wrong George in Charge

Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 02:37:11 PM PDT

In the latest New Yorker, we learn that George Soros is in fact a proud member of the Reality-Based Community:
In May, 2003, Bush had what seemed like intimidatingly high popularity ratings, and there was overwhelming public support for the war. But Soros had one of his anticipatory hunches that the President’s support was a bubble that could burst. Moreover, he had the ego and the audacity to think that he could pop it. He commissioned two political researchers, Mark Steitz and Tom Novick, to determine whether it would be possible for Soros himself to exert political impact.

The following July, Soros invited a group of top Democratic activists to join him in the salmon-colored drawing room at El Mirador, his weekend estate in Southampton, Long Island, for the presentation of the consultants’ report. Steitz and Novick indicated that the 2004 election would probably be very close. The electorate was polarized, with only ten per cent of likely voters undecided. The best strategy, they said, would be to mobilize the Democratic base and persuade undecided voters with a state-of-the-art field operation. The plan was projected to cost at least seventy-five million dollars. As the researchers gave their presentation, Steitz recalled, “Soros was very engrossed. He leaned forward when we were talking about getting out the vote, and asked, ‘You mean you actually go door to door?’ All the practical aspects caught his imagination.”

Under the new campaign-finance law, supporters could no longer give unlimited funds directly to the Democratic Party—but according to the consultants’ interpretation of the law they could funnel private contributions into allied “independent” groups. As the discussion proceeded, it was proposed that Soros provide enough funds to these groups to pay for field operations in six or seven of the seventeen states that were expected to be the most contested. Soros, Steitz recalled, insisted that funds be offered for all seventeen. “He said, ‘I don’t want to build half a bridge! I want to do what’s necessary to effect the outcome!’”

Aha. So he wondered if he could have an impact, and then commissioned an expert study to find out whether that was true, and, if so, what was the best way to do it. He didn't just trust his "gut."

Incidentally, it just so happens that two Yale political scientists (who, by the way, are top-notch in their field) have just published a book examing the effectiveness of various approaches to organizing electoral campaigns.

Here's what they concluded:

  • Door-to-door canvassing, though expensive, yields the most votes. As a rule of thumb, one additional vote is cast from each 14 people contacted. That works out to somewhere between $7 and $19 a vote, depending on the pay of canvassers - not much different from the cost of that three-pack of underwear. Canvassers who matched the ethnic profile of their assigned neighborhoods were more successful.
Too bad the wrong George was in charge of postwar planning for Iraq.

Oil For Condi

Mon Oct 11, 2004 at 06:59:37 PM PDT

The names of the American companies that had been blacked out in the Duelfer Report have been leaked:

Major American oil companies and a Texas oil investor were among those who received lucrative vouchers that enabled them to buy Iraqi oil under the U.N. oil-for-food program, according to a report prepared by the chief arms inspector for the CIA.

The 918-page report says that four American oil companies - Chevron, Mobil, Texaco and Bay Oil - and three individuals, including Oscar S. Wyatt Jr. of Houston, were given vouchers and got 111 million barrels of oil between them from 1996 to 2003. The vouchers allowed them to profit by selling the oil or the right to trade it.

The other individuals, whose names appeared on a secret list maintained by the former Iraqi government, were Samir Vincent of Annandale, Va., and Shakir Al-Khafaji of West Bloomfield, Mich., according to the report by the inspector, Charles A. Duelfer.

The fact that these companies and individuals received oil from Iraq does not mean that they did anything illegal, experts on the program said.


Chevron has been subpoenaed by "a federal grand jury in New York, which is investigating 'transactions in oil of Iraqi origin.'"

Troubling.

So guess who may have been involved in undermining the sanctions program, which I suppose is our latest casus belli?

That's right, your National Security Advisor, Condi Rice, who was a Director at Chevron from 1991 to 2001. Chevron liked her so much, they even named an oil tanker after her. Did the Condoleezza Rice carry Saddam's dirty oil?

Another question in my mind is, did Chevron pay any kickbacks to Saddam? What did Condi Rice know, and when did she know it? Why did the public version of the Duelfer Report cover up Chevron's name?

The American people demand answers.

How Iraqis Really Feel

Fri Oct 01, 2004 at 09:39:03 AM PDT

Iraq Travel Advisory

Wed Sep 08, 2004 at 09:58:18 AM PDT

Just in case you were thinking of visiting:

This Travel Warning updates information on the continuing dangerous security situation in Iraq following the transfer of governing authority to the Interim Iraqi Government on June 28, 2004. The U.S. Embassy in Baghdad was established on the same day. The security threat to all American citizens in Iraq remains extremely high, with a high risk of attacks on civilians. International organizations have reduced their staff in Iraq as a result of attacks, bombings and threats to civil aviation. This supersedes the Travel Warning of June 25, 2004.

The Department of State continues to strongly warn U.S. citizens against travel to Iraq, which remains very dangerous. Remnants of the former Baath regime, transnational terrorists, and criminal elements remain active. Attacks against military and civilian targets throughout Iraq continue. Targets include hotels, restaurants, police stations, checkpoints, foreign diplomatic missions, and international organizations and other locations with expatriate personnel. These attacks have resulted in deaths and injuries of American citizens, including those doing humanitarian work. There is credible information that terrorists have targeted civil aviation. In addition, there have been planned and random killings, as well as extortions and kidnappings. Military operations continue. There are daily attacks against Multinational Forces - Iraq (MNF-I) throughout the country.

All vehicular travel in Iraq is extremely dangerous. There have been numerous attacks on civilian vehicles, as well as military convoys. Attacks occur throughout the day, but travel at night is exceptionally dangerous. Travel in or through Ramadi and Fallujah, travel between al-Hillah and Baghdad, and travel between the International Zone and Baghdad International Airport is particularly dangerous. Occasionally, U.S. Government personnel are prohibited from traveling to select areas depending on prevailing security conditions. There continues to be heavy use of Improvised Explosive Devices (IED) and/or mines on roads, particularly in plastic bags, soda cans, and dead animals. Grenades and explosives have been thrown into vehicles from overpasses, particularly in crowded areas. Travel should be undertaken only when absolutely necessary and with the appropriate security.

Darn that liberal media!

Spy: Rhode or Franklin

Fri Aug 27, 2004 at 07:44:52 PM PDT

Here's why:

The Pentagon analyst who officials said is under suspicion was one of two department officials who traveled to Paris for a secret meeting with Manucher Ghorbanifar, an Iranian arms dealer who had been a central figure in the Iran-contra affair.

And:


In a NEWSWEEK interview in Paris last month, Ghorbanifar, a former Iranian spy who helped launch the Iran-contra affair, says one of the things he discussed with Defense officials Harold Rhode and Larry Franklin at meetings in Rome in December 2001 (and in Paris last June with only Rhode) was regime change in Iran.

Start your Googling engines!!!

About Ginsberg and the SBVT

Fri Aug 27, 2004 at 06:37:58 AM PDT

Here's a question that doesn't seem to have been asked about Bush campaign, SBVT, and Progress Fund lawyer David Ginsberg: what, exactly, was he up to?

Now, as it's been framed, Ginsberg is one of the few guys who does this kind of thing: election law compliance. He was just trying to help those nice friendly guys do the right thing.

But far more likely, in my mind, is that Ginsberg's role was to dot the i's and cross the t's so that BC04 and SBVT could coordinate without technically violating any laws.

What do you guys think?

Bush DUI: Start your engines

Tue Aug 24, 2004 at 02:03:15 PM PDT

Edward Lazarus over at FindLaw makes an excellent point:

But the darkest cloud looming over Bush's head -- one which may long post-date the campaign -- is whether Bush lied about his criminal record in any sworn documents, such as insurance forms or business license applications, to name two of many possibilities. No doubt, as the press exhausts its interviews with the source for the DUI story, they will descend on this angle next. I can already envision the first special prosecution of a Bush Administration.

If I were George W. Bush, I would be quaking in my boots right now.

Team Kerry does not play nice, and the print media is furious over the SBVT campaign.

Bring it on.

Theoria's Worst Nightmare

Tue Aug 24, 2004 at 07:45:37 AM PDT

Michelle Goldberg has the scoop on the anarcho-shenanigans in store for the RNC in New York.

I'm a little concerned.

This kind of childishness seems guaranteed to backfire to John Kerry's detriment:


"We want to make their stay here as miserable as possible," says Moran, who has sandy hair, a snub nose and a goatee. The son of a retired Queens cop, he's 30 but looks younger. "I'd like to see all the Republican events - teas, backslapping lunches - disrupted. I'd like to see people from other states following their delegates, letting them know what they think about Republican policies. I'd like to see impromptu street parties and marches. I'd like to see corporations involved in the Iraq reconstruction get targeted - anything from occupation to property destruction."

Yeah.

Property destruction. That'll change some minds.

Not.

It's these kinds of morons that make it nearly impossible to have a peaceful demonstration anymore.

Iraq Rebukes Halliburton Subsidiary

Sat Aug 21, 2004 at 09:41:43 PM PDT

Whoops!


Iraqi oil experts on Saturday rebuked an American firm helping rehabilitate Iraq's oil industry, saying it had failed to do an adequate job in the vital sector, The Associated Press reported from Amman, Jordan. Kellogg Brown & Root, which was contracted through the United States Department of Defense, "has not done an excellent job, it has not done a good job at all," said Mohammed Aboush, a former director general of the Iraqi Oil Ministry.

 "We have attended several meetings with the firm and set up priorities for work, but we had only schedules and promises, many of them did not materialize," added Mr. Aboush, who said he quit his job with the ministry two months ago. He declined to discuss details. Mustafa al-Bazergan, an Iraqi oil expert, said the United States allocated $809 million through Kellogg Brown & Root - which is based in Houston - for rebuilding Iraqi oil installations and rehabilitating the oil industry.

 "But very little was achieved, less than 10 percent," he said. Kellogg Brown & Root is a subsidiary of the Halliburton Company, which has been awarded more than $6 billion in contracts related to the American-led invasion of Iraq, but the company has been under fire for allegedly overcharging the government.

Henry Waxman, call your office.

Boykin gets a slap on the wrist

Thu Aug 19, 2004 at 04:41:13 PM PDT

So reports WaPo:

A Defense Department investigation has determined that Lt. Gen. William G. "Jerry" Boykin, the Pentagon's senior military intelligence official, violated three internal regulations while delivering controversial speeches that linked the war on terrorism to what he depicted as an enduring battle against Satan, according to a copy of the probe obtained yesterday by The Washington Post.

The 10-month internal investigation, conducted by the department's deputy inspector general for investigations, confirmed news accounts that Boykin said in his speeches that President Bush had been placed in his post by God, that radical Muslims hate America because it "will never abandon Israel" and that the U.S. military is recruiting a spiritual army that will draw strength from a greater power to defeat its enemy.  

Lt. Gen. Jerry Boykin drew criticism for talking about the war on terrorism in religious terms. (U.S. Army)

Arab and Muslim groups sharply criticized these remarks when they were initially publicized last year, accusing Boykin of bigotry and saying he was unfit to keep his post. Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman John W. Warner (R-Va.) and the committee's senior Democrat, Sen. Carl M. Levin (Mich.), demanded an inquiry and called for Boykin to step down while it proceeded.  

But Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld, speaking at the time, praised Boykin for "an outstanding record" and kept him in his post. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Richard B.  Myers likewise defended Boykin and told reporters that "at first blush, it doesn't look like any rules were broken" because "there is a very wide gray area" of what the rules permit.    

What does a guy need to do to get fired in this bAdminstration?

Sheesh.

Karen Hughes in eff-izz-ect

Tue Aug 17, 2004 at 09:32:55 AM PDT

Ok, so we all know that Karen Hughes is back on the WH payroll as the Bush campaign works feverishly to reverse all of the reversals it has suffered, most of them of Bush's own making.

I happen to dislike Karen Hughes intensely, but I have to admit that she is an asset to the Bush team.

Here's one example of her spinning ability that I came across today, via Dan Froomkin. As Froomkin notes, she's one of the few hosts of "Ask the White House" who is willing to answer anything other than wildly absurd softballs.

Watch her parry:


David, from Belize City, Belize writes:
What is your reaction to the recently released book by former Treasury Secretary O'Neil?

Thanks,

David Pohl

Karen Hughes
I haven't read the book, but thought many of his statements in interviews and excerpts were bizarre. I've worked for the President for ten years now, and I've never been in a meeting where he didn't ask tough, probing questions. It's one of the things he does best -- ask questions that get right to the heart of the matter.

Mr. O'Neill called the President "blind" and his former colleagues on the Cabinet -- smart, tough, opinionated people like Colin Powell and Don Rumsfeld "deaf" -- then said he couldn't understand why anyone would be upset about his book -- I think that tells you everything you need to know about his skewed perspective.


BTW, I swear I've seen Dave Pohl's name in one or more comment sections. Is he on kos?

Anyway, as you can see, Hughes is much defter at handling these kind of questions than the bumbling Bush, the hapless Scott, or even the maddening Ari. While from my perspective she isn't correct, most of the time she doesn't avoid questions or resort to outrageous strawmen. Nor does she seem to

Given how skilled Hughes is, why haven't other members of the Bush team absobed any of her techniques?

Why do they rely on transparent Orwellians like Frank Luntz, or masters of divisive wedge politics that backfire like Karl Rove?

(And yes, I'm glad they've chosen the less effective approach. I'm just mystified.)

Hacking the GOP Convention

Tue Aug 17, 2004 at 07:40:23 AM PDT

Noah Schactman has a quick n' dirty article in Wired about a group of 31it3 h4x0rs who are planning to wreak havoc with the online efforts of the GOP during convention week:


"We want to bombard (the Republican sites) with so much traffic that nobody can get in," said CrimethInc, a member of the so-called Black Hat Hackers Bloc. It's one of several groups planning to distribute software tools to reload Republican sites over and over again. These FloodNet programs are similar to hackers' distributed denial-of-service attacks, which overwhelm a server with thousands and thousands of simultaneous requests for information. [...]

The point of the electronic demonstrations isn't to take down a site, according to Ricardo Dominguez, co-founder of the Electronic Disturbance Theater, or EDT, which is releasing a FloodNet program of its own. Unlike hackers' denial-of-service attacks, which often hijack computers against their users' will, EDT's JavaScript-based software depends on how many people use the program. "It's a way to let people around the world gather and let their presence be felt," Dominguez said.

Not that he would mind if a Republican server just happened to crash along the way. In 2002, at the EDT's direction, 43,000 people flooded the site of the World Economic Forum during its meeting in New York. The organization's website went offline for several hours following the demonstration.

The Black Hat Hackers Bloc is hoping to cause a whole lot more trouble when the Republicans start to gather in New York. The groups will be targeting not only GOP computers, but "e-mail, faxes and phones, too," CrimethInc said, as well as unspecified "financial disruption."

Now, as a partisan, I love this kind of stuff.

But as a law-abiding citizen, I think it's wrong. Now, I'm all for proportional responses in terms of attack ads, but in general I think we can win in a free marketplace of ideas and don't need to resort to this kind of nonsense.

It may even backfire on the Democrats.

What do you think?

Nasty Ads

Mon Aug 16, 2004 at 07:24:19 PM PDT

With the launch of the Swift Boat Veterans for Hating John Kerry's smear campaign and MoveOn.org's rather aggressive response -- which appears to be a subject of much debate tonight -- it's worth harkening back to a time when the Democrats were masters at the brutal attack: 1964.

Like today, the Democratic candidate was running against another right-wing extremist: Barry Goldwater.

At the heart of Barry Goldwater's agenda was a destigmatization of tactical nuclear weapons, the slashing of taxes on the wealthiest Americans, the privatization of many of the vital functions of government, systematic dergulation, disdain for multilateral institutions, and a greater role for conservative Christianity in American public life.

Sound familiar?

But in 1964 the Democratic candidate pulled no punches in calling Barry Goldwater a right-wing extremist.

Johnson's strategy was a one-two punch: raise fears that a vote for Goldwater was a vote for nuclear war, and present Johnson as a moderate alternative.

Most of you are probably familiar with the notorious "Daisy" ad, which was the "left hook."

But Johnson "right cross" was the more subtle advertisement called "Confessions of a Republican." Kathleen Hall Jamieson describes it thusly in this month's New Yorker:


"It was done with an actor, and it was scripted, but you were not supposed to know that," Jamieson said. "He was in a studio, he was sitting on a chair, and he was smoking--which, of course, he wouldn't be doing anymore--and he was talking about how he's been a Republican all his life. It's a stream-of-consciousness narrative, almost Joycean. He's a Republican, but the Republican candidate, Barry Goldwater, doesn't stand for what he supports, and he thinks about the Convention, and how the people at the Convention weren't people like him, and he worries about Goldwater's statements about tactical nuclear weapons and, you know, what kind of person would say that, what kind of person would he be as President." At one point in the ad, the man remarks about Goldwater, "I read now where he says, `A craven fear of death is sweeping across America.' What is that supposed to mean? If that means people don't want to fight a nuclear war, he's right. I don't."

The ad is available for viewing over at the American Museum of the Moving Image's archives. It's devastating in how it portrays Goldwater as bizarre, extreme, and unworthy of trust. It's effective because this cleancut man says he is a loyal Republican but finds his party's nominee to be beyond the pale, and because he does so in a questioning rather than asserting manner.

MoveOn.org has is launching its own series of similar ads, available here. They were directed by Errol Morris, who most recently filmed "The Fog of War" about Robert McNamara, which won an Oscar. The New Yorker article tells the story behind the ads and what they mean for the campaign.

Now, at first glance this group of ads is pretty good: like "Confessions of a Republican," it shows moderate Republican archetypes talking about why they're voting for John Kerry. Most of them do this very well, although I probably wouldn't have chosen the same ad for first place.

Johnson crushed Goldwater by using this kind of appeal to moderate Republicans.

But one thing that's missing from Kerry's arsenal, it seems to me, is that nasty left hook, that devastating 30 seconds that says: vote for Bush and you are DOOMED, DOOMED, DOOMED!!!

That's what Daisy was all about. I don't think talking about Bush's volleyball with ambitious secretaries does the trick, because it doesn't make the case that Bush is, to borrow a colorful phrase, an "extreme extremist."

So my question for you kosovars is: do we need a left hook?

Or is the right cross good enough?

Do the Morris ads have enough of that "George Bush is an extreme extremist" flava?

"Don't attack Najaf"

Sat Aug 14, 2004 at 09:12:28 PM PDT

Now that Operation Was Kerry in Cambodia seems to be dying down, it's worth paying attention to something that actually matters: the future of Iraq.

As we all know, U.S. forces are currently engaged in what was intended to be the final showdown with radical Shi'ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr and his militia, the al-Mahdi army.

Best overview of Iraq situation

Sat Aug 07, 2004 at 10:25:57 PM PDT

Now I know the general tenor around these parts is outright hostility to the Great Iraqi Adventure. I myself, though studiously ambivalent about the invasion's wisdom, have been optimistic and despondent at various points in time.

Well here's a great report by the good folks over at CSIS -- in my view one of the most nonpartisan and objective think tanks around -- that explains why it's so easy for both sides of the political divide to find evidence to support their views on the situation.

The bottom line: it really depends on where you are.

The general trend is that areas that were favored under Saddam are angry, whereas areas the Shi'ite south is cautiously optimistic. The Kurds are angry and feel betrayed. Baghdadis just want security more than anything else.

Have a read.

http://www.csis.org/isp/pcr/0407_Capturing_Iraqi_Voices.pdf

Other CSIS reports:
http://www.csis.org/isp/pcr/


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