SUSA did a fantastic job polling all 50 states with the Clinton-McCain and Obama-McCain matchups.  But then they dropped the ball in the analysis of their results.  Assigning winner-take-all for the electoral votes is lousy way to predict a likely election outcome, and it obscures some real information that is in their polling data.

SUSA's quoted results:

Obama 280 - McCain 258

Clinton 276 - McCain 262

A more reasonable analysis of their data gives:

Obama 294 - McCain 244

Clinton 278 - McCain 260

SUSA's polling found, in fact, that Obama has a significant advantage over Clinton in the McCain matchup!  

So how does one make the more reasonable analysis?  This and state-by-state results below....

Andrew Tannenbaum, a.k.a. Votemaster at electoral-vote.com, raises an interesting point: if the Democrats take over the House, we would have Speaker Pelosi second in line for the presidency behind Cheney.

While Tannenbaum doesn't state it explicitly, I will:

As Chris Mooney and many others have documented, the Republicans are quick to dismiss any science that gets in the way of their agenda.  We've all seen breathtaking examples of their boldness.   Evidently the GOP has become so nihilistic that the only limiting factor for their disregard for reality is the level of scientific literacy of the public.  For example, they can rely on a lot of ignorance of biology to make outrageous claims about evolution, rely on people's ignorance about fertility treatments to make embryonic research look unethical, etc.

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