Daily Kos

New PA Time Poll Hillary 49, Obama 41

Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 10:25:30 AM PDT

So a new Time PA poll  Hillary up 49-41.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/...

But I think this poll has some questionable methodology. For one it adds leaners, which some polls do and some don't. Without leaners, Hillary leads 44-38. African-Americans account for 16% of the vote, which I think is a solid estimate.

But 18-29 year olds only account for 9% of the vote and 18-24 year olds only account for 2% of the vote. I think its safe to say that if college students account for 2-3% of the total vote Obama will lose. Plus 65& older account for 24% of the vote.

My question is what do they base this on? In the 04 race, 65& above accounted for 22% of the vote, while 18-29 account for 21%. Sure, that's GE numbers while this is a primary, but young people are more likely to be democrats. So, maybe older people will account for a greater percentage, but an almost 3:1 margin, I don't know about that.

What Obama should say via VP

Sat Mar 08, 2008 at 05:20:31 PM PDT

This is an issue that's gotten a lot of attention recently
as both Clintons have spoken about it in as many days.

I think the next time he's asked this, he should say something to the effect of: "Based on her recent comments it sounds like she'd rather be on the ticket with John McCain, so maybe you should ask him this question instead."


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