A lot of people are confused about polls.  There are a couple big areas of confusion that I'd like to cover tonight:

1. Bias vs. variance

2. Margin of error, and how it relates to chance of winning

This is a re-post of a diary I posted more than a year ago; with some revisions.

I love Israel.  I really do.  I lived there for three years (1985 - 1988).  In many ways, I find it to be a much better society that the one we've got going here.

I hate AIPAC.  I once, by accident, attended an AIPAC dinner (I was invited to fill up a table).  I wanted to retch. They are repulsive.

I love Israel.  I hate AIPAC.  More below the fold

A lot of good teaching goes on at dailyKos.  But a lot of it doesn't get read by everyone who wants to read it, because diaries scroll by so fast.
This series is about diaries that teach and about things you want to learn.  Could be any subject - an academic subject, a skill, a hobby, almost anything - but not diaries that simply inform, or it would include all of daily kos.

If you like to trade books, try BookMooch.

cfk has bookflurries on Weds. nights
pico has literature for kossacks on Tues. nights, but it's on hiatus

sarahnity has books by kossacks now its own series, on Tuesday nights

So, Hillary isn't dropping out.  

What should we do?

Well, we could continue to engage in Hillary-bashing, endlessly pointing out all her wrong positions, wrong tactics, and confusion about math.  We could do that.  

Or, we could ignore her.  And giggle.

Thanks to jlms qkw for guest hosting last week

A lot of good teaching goes on at dailyKos.  But a lot of it doesn't get read by everyone who wants to read it, because diaries scroll by so fast.
This series is about diaries that teach and about things you want to learn.  Could be any subject - an academic subject, a skill, a hobby, almost anything - but not diaries that simply inform, or it would include all of daily kos.

Thanks to jlms qkw for guest hosting.

If you like to trade books, try BookMooch.

cfk has bookflurries on Weds. nights
pico has literature for kossacks on Tues. nights, but it's on hiatus

If you have ideas for future weeks, let me know.  I am thinking of "books that explain America"

I am no expert on cool.  Believe me.  I'm a square, geeky guy who is usually so far behind the curve on these things that I didn't even know there was a curve. I wear the same type of clothes I wore 20 years ago and I listen to the same type of music I listened to then, too.  I know nothing of popular culture.

In this, I am probably similar to a lot of people who are green

more below the fold

Americans drive too much.  Way too much.  There are lots of reasons, but one is that driving is subsidized.... it's subsidized through free highways (paid for by everyone, not just drivers), and by taxes on gas that don't begin to cover the costs and damages that burning gas does to the world.

I think gas taxes should be much, much higher, but that's not going to go anywhere, politically.  

But here's something that might, that I read about in the NYTimes Magazine on 4/20/08: Pay As You Drive Insurance.

more below the fold

This is a book review of Gaming the Vote by William Poundstone.  The book is subtitled "Why Elections aren't fair, and what we can do about it".

It's an excellent book.  Poundstone makes often abstruse arguments clear, without dumbing things down.

This is not a book about hanging chads, fake votes, and things like that.  Rather, it's about the problems of our current method of voting - called plurality voting - and some better alternatives.  Plurality voting is the worst of all seriously considered schemes.

More below the fold

There are 435 seats in the House.  

Some are near locks for one party or the other.  Some are close.  No race is a sure thing (50 state strategy) but the races that were close in 2006 are clearly the ones that are most likely to switch in 2008.  One reason they might switch is fundraising.  So, below the fold, I look at districts that were within 10 points in 2006

Financing info is from the FEC
Polling info is from Election Inspection
The DCCC list is here
SSP ratings are  here

I need a guest host for next week.....any volunteers?

A lot of good teaching goes on at dailyKos.  But a lot of it doesn't get read by everyone who wants to read it, because diaries scroll by so fast.
This series is about diaries that teach and about things you want to learn.  Could be any subject - an academic subject, a skill, a hobby, almost anything - but not diaries that simply inform, or it would include all of daily kos.

Thanks to jlms qkw for guest hosting last week.  I need another guest host next week, as I will be away.  I believe jlms has graciously volunteered again.....but if someone else wants to do so, that would be good too.

If you like to trade books, try BookMooch.

cfk has bookflurries on Weds. nights
pico has literature for kossacks on Tues. nights, but it's on hiatus

If you have ideas for future weeks, let me know.  In two weeks, I am thinking of "books that explain America"

In Science Times on April 15, on page F3, there was an article on home wind turbine. Here is the link.

The first paragraph:

Wind turbines, once used primarily for farms and rural home far from electrical service, are becoming more common in heavily populated residential areas as homeowners are attracted to ease of use, financial incentives, and low environmental impact

more below the fold

In today's NY Times:

With little fanfare, a small number of prominent academic scientists have made a decision that was until recently all but unheard of. They decided to stop accepting payments from food, drug and medical device companies.

the article is on the front page of Science Times, or linked here

more below the fold

The end of round 2!

Washington has 9 representatives: 6 Democrats and 3 Republicans
Filing deadline is June 6, primary is Aug 19

West Virginia has 3 representatives: 2 Democrats and 1 Republican
Filing deadline was Jan 26, primary is May 13

Wisconsin has 8 representatives: 5 Democrats and 3 Republicans
Filing deadline is July 7, primary is Sept. 9

Wyoming has 1 representative: A Republican
Filing deadline is May 30, primary Aug 19

Continuing through the alphabet, and nearing the end :-)

Utah has 3 representatives: 2 Republicans and a Democrat
The filing deadline was March 17, the primary is June 24

Vermont has 1 representative - a Democrat
Filing deadline is July 21, primary is Sept. 9

Virginia has 11 representatives: 8 Republicans and 3 Democrats
Filing deadline was April 11, primary is June 10

A lot of good teaching goes on at dailyKos.  But a lot of it doesn't get read by everyone who wants to read it, because diaries scroll by so fast.
This series is about diaries that teach and about things you want to learn.  Could be any subject - an academic subject, a skill, a hobby, almost anything - but not diaries that simply inform, or it would include all of daily kos.