(
I was working on a similar post introducing Tim Walz as the newest Netroots candidate, then I saw this hit the recent diaries. It beats the crap out of what I was writing, so with great pride, I'll let minessota max do the honors -- kos)
As you may know by now, Tim Walz is our next netroots candidate. As he is also my next Congressman, I thought I'd do a diary to try and introduce Kossacks from the rest of the country to Mr. Walz, his incumbent GOP opponent, Gil Gutknecht, and the dynamics of a race that is quickly becoming one of the hottest in the country.
Besides being a great public speaker and stumper, Tim Walz is a 24-year army veteran who recently served in Europe in support of the War in Afghanistan. He is also an award-winning high school geography teacher and former football coach. You can read his official bio here.
For more on Mr. Gutknecht, the important local issues, and Minnesota's Fightin' First District, go below the fold.
The First District
Minnesota's First Congressional District runs two counties high across the entire southern part of Minnesota, all along the Iowa border. The district is mostly rural, but it includes Rochester, one of Minnesota's fastest growing cities (and the fastest outside of the Twin Cities suburbs and exurbs). Rochester is the district's largest city, at just over 90,000 people. This makes it the third largest city in Minnesota. Rochester is the home base of Gil Gutknecht, the current GOP representative who Walz is seeking to unseat. The other major cities in the district are Mankato (pop. 32,000)- home of Tim Walz and Winona (pop. 25,000).
Rochester is famous for being home to the Mayo Clinic, rated as one of the top 2 hospitals in the entire country. "The Clinic" is a dominant employer in the town, as is IBM. Mankato and Winona both feature large state universities and a fairly diverse array of industry. Several other towns dotted across the district are little industrial towns around 20,000 in population that were former bastions of organized labor but whose factories are now mostly staffed by immigrants. Examples are Austin- home of Hormel and Spam- and Worthington.
The First District was won by George Bush in 2004, but only very narrowly: 51%-48% (or 172k-160k). Gutknecht heavily outperformed Bush, but he was only facing token opposition. Clearly this is a winnable district for a candidate as good as Tim Walz.
Gutknecht's Troubles
While Tim Walz is an excellent candidate both in biography and in person, one of the things making this district competitive is the fact that Mr. Gutknecht has been making some political mistakes as of late. These have landed him bad press and have contributed to the anti-incumbent feel that is pervasive this election cycle.
One of those mistakes came when Gutknecht was caught attempting to edit his own Wikipedia profile to delete a reference to a pledge he made to serve only 12 years in Congress. Interestingly enough, Gutknecht made that pledge, oh, apporoximately... 12 years ago! You see, Gutknecht was a part of the class of 1994 that signed the "Contract with America". The pledges to balance the budget and have term limits that have both gone unfulfilled have been the subject of many letters to the editor throughout the district.
Another mistake by Gutknecht came when he collected signatures to appear on the election ballot outside of the designated period. Gutknecht was nearly forced to mount a write-in campaign during the Republican primary, but was saved by GOP Secretary of State Mary Kiffmeyer and the Minnesota Supreme Court, who ruled that his signatures were valid under the law and that he could legally appear on the ballot.
Finally, Gutknecht has undermined his suppor in his home base of Rochester. You see, Senator John Thune (R-SD) is a former lobbyist for a railroad company that wants the "largest government loan to a private company in U.S. history". The railroad wants to improve its tracks so it can run more trains through the First District and South Dakota. Rochester, the largest city on the route, and the Mayo Clinic are vehemently opposed to the idea because of the railroad's record as being one of the least safe in the country. This plan is incredibly unpopular in Rochester, and is opposed by Minnesota Senator Mark Dayton. Gutknecht, however, has been silent on the issue, which is threatening to syphon off votes from his base in Rochester. Tim Walz, on the other hand, became the first Congressional challenger in recent memory to meet with Mayo Clinic officials after he released a position paper on the subject.
The Walz Magic
In addition to these local problems, there is the ultimate albatross for a GOP incumbent: Iraq. Gutknecht was originally one of the strongest supporters of the war, making the typical sanctimonious speeches on the House floor and touting his admirable patriotism. However, when things began to go sour, Gutknecht began telling media sources that he didn't want to comment on an issue the public doesn't understand. However, facing a tough opponent in Walz- a veteran who isn't afraid to talk about Iraq and has been continually calling for a debate on the issue- Gutknecht came home from Iraq and pulled yet another flip-flop that made national news:
The Washington Post reported that Gutknecht was "urging that troop withdrawals begin immediately." USA Today said "he's calling for a phased U.S. troop withdrawal."
It was an attempt to distance himself from the President on the issue, but he ended up looking mealy-mouthed when he backed off of his comments later in the week.
Besides being an authority on veteran's issues and issues of defense, Walz is a great speaker who connects his background with the assaults the Republicans have made on the middle class in recent years. Everyone who meets him comes away impressed, with many saying that Walz is the first Minnesota politician to inspire them since Wellstone.
This is truly a race that we can win. National Journal rates this as the 39th most competitive House race this cycle. The only problem is that Walz continues to trail in Cash on Hand due to the incumbent's warchest. However, he has the momentum, as he has recently been out-raising or running neck-and-neck with Gutknecht. From Swing State Project:
MN-01:
Tim Walz (D): $198k raised ($250k cash-on-hand)
Gil Gutknecht (R-Inc.): $190k raised ($800k+ cash-on-hand)
(*These numbers are estimates only--I'll watch out for an update. The good news for Walz is that he's outraised Gutknecht, and incumbent congressman, for the second quarter in a row. The bad news is a cruel cash-on-hand disadvantage. Still, after the first quarter, it was a 6-to-1 disadvantage. Now it's well under a 4-to-1 disadvantage. It's not stellar, but he's closing the gap.)
Walz will need about $600k-$800k to run an ad campaign that rivals Gutknecht's. The good news is that advertising runs cheap in Southern Minnesota. The other good news is that you can now donate to Tim Walz on the Netroots ActBlue page. Get on over there and make this another victory for the netroots this cycle.
