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The 2016 election had some bright spots for progressives, too, and that's where our future starts

Community

Thursday November 10, 2016 · 8:33 AM PST

2016/11/10 · 08:33

California Attorney General Kamala Harris waves a rainbow flag while participating in the San Francisco Pride parade in San Francisco, California on Sunday, June, 26, 2016. / AFP / Josh Edelson (Photo credit should read JOSH EDELSON/AFP/Getty Images) — California's Kamala Harris, who will become the first Indian-American and just the second African-American woman to serve in the Senate.

There’s no denying that Tuesday was a bad day for Democrats in particular and American democracy at large. But looking beyond the presidential race, there were a number of bright spots across the country, both where Democratic candidates won important elections and where key progressive ballot measures were passed.

These sorts of developments, which often fall under the radar, might seem small compared to the debacle at the top of the ticket. But in fact, they’re more important than ever, since progressives now need to redouble our efforts to build the Democratic Party from the bottom up. We can’t win the bigger races without building up a bench by winning the smaller races first, and in a number of places, we did exactly that.

Let’s review some of the most prominent positives from 2016:

A Democratic Party that looks more like America

In Nevada, Catherine Cortez-Masto will become the first Latina to serve in the Senate, and in Illinois Tammy Duckworth will become the first Thai-American senator. In California, Kamala Harris is the first Indian-American senator and only the second African-American woman to serve in the Senate. Oregon Gov. Kate Brown, who is bisexual, is the first openly LGBT person to win a gubernatorial election. And Ilhan Omar was elected as a state representative in Minnesota, the first Somali-American legislator in the country. BuzzFeed has also listed some additional firsts for the new Congress. As America continues to grow more diverse, the Democratic party is following suit, while the GOP stubbornly refuses to embrace the changing country.

Morning Digest: Maggie Hassan pulls off a razor-thin win against Republican Kelly Ayotte

Daily Kos Elections

Daily Kos Staff

Thursday November 10, 2016 · 5:01 AM PST

2016/11/10 · 05:01

Leading Off:

● NH-Sen: Granite State Democrats managed to pull off a win here even with so much else going wrong nationwide. On Wednesday afternoon, GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte conceded to Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan after certified results gave Hassan a 48.0-47.9 lead, which amounted to a 1,023-vote edge.

This was a fiercely contested race from beginning to end. Aside from Nevada, this is also the only competitive Senate race that Team Blue won on Tuesday. (Democrats picked up Illinois, but neither party spent much there.) Clinton carried New Hampshire 47.5-47.3, almost exactly matching Hassan's margin of victory. Hassan's win takes the GOP's majority down to 52-48 (assuming the GOP holds the Louisiana Senate seat in the December runoff as we expect they will).

The polls were well and truly f***ed. Again.

Daniel Donner

Community

Wednesday November 09, 2016 · 11:18 AM PST

2016/11/09 · 11:18

Holy hell. What a turn in U.S. history. And we didn’t even see it coming—because the polls were way, way off, as they were in 2014. We found ourselves facing vote margins in the presidential race that were 5, 10, even 14 points off from our final Daily Kos Elections polling average margin. The miss, on average, was a little under 5 points too rosy for Hillary Clinton on the margin. That will probably improve a little as more ballots are counted, but not that much.

What’s remarkable, as the graph at the top of this post shows, is that the polling average miss was almost universally in Trump’s favor—those are the dots below the green line. Polls often miss, but almost always, some misses favor one party and some favor the other. The uniformity of the misses here is striking. Want further details to obsess over and distract you? Read on.

Morning Digest: Republicans retain control of Congress and pick up governorships and legislatures

Daily Kos Elections

Daily Kos Staff

Wednesday November 09, 2016 · 5:01 AM PST

2016/11/09 · 05:01

The results of Tuesday night’s presidential election were shocking beyond words, and the news was little better for Democrats further down the ballot. In the battle for the Senate, Democrats were guaranteed to pick up just a single seat, as Rep. Tammy Duckworth defeated GOP Sen. Mark Kirk in Illinois. Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto also succeeded in beating Republican Rep. Joe Heck to hold Harry Reid’s seat in Nevada, becoming the first-ever Latina senator.

While the map had looked very favorable for Democrats at the start of the cycle, almost every other competitive race went for Republicans, including contests in Florida, Indiana, Missouri, and North Carolina. The biggest disappointment of all came in Wisconsin, where former Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold had led in the polls all cycle long, even as the race tightened at the end; nevertheless, he fell to GOP Sen. Ron Johnson.

New Hampshire was too close to call when we put the Digest to bed, but Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan had a lead of less than 1 percent on GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte with most votes counted. Regardless of the outcome in the Granite State, though, Republicans will almost certainly hold either a 53-47 or 52-48 majority in the Senate come January, down just slightly from the 54-46 advantage they held heading into Election Day. (The GOP is heavily favored to win a runoff in Louisiana next month.)

Daily Kos Elections 2016 downballot liveblog thread #8

Daily Kos Elections

Daily Kos Staff

Tuesday November 08, 2016 · 9:26 PM PST

2016/11/08 · 21:26

Follow: Presidential Liveblog • Daily Kos Elections on Twitter

Results: CNN • New York Times • Politico

Guides: Poll Closing Times • Hour-by-Hour Guide • County Benchmarks

Cheat Sheets: Senate • Governorships • House • Legislatures • Ballot Measures

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 5:30:05 AM +00:00 · David Nir

NC-Gov: On a night like tonight, this is fairly amazing: Democrat Roy Cooper is leading GOP Gov. Pat McCrory by 3,600 votes with just 8 precincts left. Over 4.5 million votes have been cast in this race.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 5:32:35 AM +00:00 · David Nir

AZ-01: Democrat Tom O’Halleran has held the seat left open by Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, who unsuccessfully ran for Senate. O’Halleran defeated Republican Paul Babeu in this sprawing northern Arizona seat.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 5:51:15 AM +00:00 · David Nir

CA-21: Democrats once again fell short in this heavily Latino seat in California’s Central Valley. GOP Rep. David Valadao has beaten Democrat Emilio Huerta.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 5:54:00 AM +00:00 · David Nir

ME-02: Republican Rep. Bruce Poliquin has won a second term in this rural northern Maine seat, beating Democrat Emily Cain.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 5:54:59 AM +00:00 · David Nir

WA-07: State Sen. Pramila Jayapal has won this all-Democratic race to succeed retiring Rep. Jim McDermott, beating state Rep. Brady Walkinshaw.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 5:55:51 AM +00:00 · David Nir

VT-Gov: Another gubernatorial pickup for the GOP, as Republican Phil Scott beats Democrat Sue Minter.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 5:58:58 AM +00:00 · David Nir

We’re still following three Senate races:

NH-Sen (83% in): Ayotte (R-inc) 48-48 (2,100 votes)
PA-Sen (95% in): Toomey (R-inc) 49-47
MO-Sen (81% in): Blunt (R-inc) 51-45

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 6:11:15 AM +00:00 · David Jarman

NH-Sen: Maggie Hassan (D) has pulled back into the lead in New Hampshire, with a 1,187 vote lead (or 0.2 percent). Either way, this race is probably in recount range.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 6:16:04 AM +00:00 · David Jarman

NV-04: Here’s a pickup in the Las Vegas area: Ruben Kihuen defeats Rep. Cresent Hardy.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 6:18:55 AM +00:00 · David Jarman

PA-Sen: The AP calls the Pennsylvania Senate race for incumbent Pat Toomey, who defeats Katie McGinty. That pretty much forecloses any Dem chances at turning the Senate around.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 6:30:05 AM +00:00 · David Jarman

MO-Sen: Jason Kander has conceded to Roy Blunt in the Missouri Senate race; this had been an outside shot at a pickup for the Dems.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 6:35:09 AM +00:00 · David Jarman

MN-07: Collin Peterson’s re-election in Minnesota’s rural 7th, given how red that district went at the presidential level (even more so than usual). But he’s narrowly pulled it out and the AP has called his race.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 6:39:34 AM +00:00 · David Jarman

KS-03: The well-educated suburban seat of KS-03 (in Kansas City’s suburbs) turned out to give some trouble to GOP incumbent Kevin Yoder, but CNN has called his race against Dem Jay Sidie.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 6:50:21 AM +00:00 · David Nir

We're going to call it a wrap. Republicans hold the Senate and House, and pick up some governorships and legislatures as well. Thank you for joining us on this incredibly difficult night. For now, as Markos says, we lick our wounds, we grieve—and then we fucking fight.

Daily Kos Elections 2016 downballot liveblog thread #7

Daily Kos Elections

Daily Kos Staff

Tuesday November 08, 2016 · 8:38 PM PST

2016/11/08 · 20:38

FLORISSANT, MO - NOVEMBER 08: Voters wait in line to vote in the 2016 Presidential Election at Hazelwood Central High School on November 8, 2016 in Florissant, Missouri. Americans today will choose between Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump and Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton as they go to the polls to vote for the next president of the United States. (Photo by Michael B. Thomas/Getty Images)

Follow: Presidential Liveblog • Daily Kos Elections on Twitter

Results: CNN • New York Times • Politico

Guides: Poll Closing Times • Hour-by-Hour Guide • County Benchmarks

Cheat Sheets: Senate • Governorships • House • Legislatures • Ballot Measures

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 4:44:23 AM +00:00 · David Nir

MN-03: GOP Rep. Erik Paulsen has prevailed over Democrat Terri Bonoff in this suburban Minneapolis seat. Paulsen was the favorite. Democrats had hoped Trump could put this district in play, but, you know...

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 4:45:17 AM +00:00 · David Nir

NY-22: Republican Claudia Tenney has won a three-way race against Democrat Kim Myers and wealthy independent Martin Babinec, holding this seat for the GOP.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 4:47:14 AM +00:00 · David Nir

MN-02: Another MN race to keep an eye on that no one had thought was competitive. Democratic Rep. Tim Walz is up just 32 votes with 67% reporting. It’s a rematch with Republican Jim Hagedorn, whom Walz beat by almost 9 points during the GOP wave of 2014.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 5:05:33 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

NJ-05: One bright spot for the Democrats tonight: AP has made the call, and Republican incumbent Scott Garrett has been defeated by Democrat Josh Gottenheimer.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 5:06:39 AM +00:00 · David Nir

NY-03: Finally, we get to mention a seat Democrats have won. Democrat Tom Suozzi was expected to beat Republican Jack Martins in the race for retiring Dem Rep. Steve Israel’s seat on Long Island, and he did in fact do so.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 5:07:07 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

IA-01: No AP call yet, but both CNN and the New York Times have declared that Republican Rep. Rod Blum has held onto his seat, defeating Democrat Monica Vernon.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 5:07:16 AM +00:00 · David Nir

Polls have now closed in most of Alaska. A small part of the state still has polls open.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 5:09:25 AM +00:00 · David Nir

PA-08: Republican Brian Fitzpatrick has held the seat left open by his brother, retiring GOP Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick, beating Democrat Steve Santarsiero in the Philadelphia suburbs.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 5:12:25 AM +00:00 · David Nir

NV-Sen: Some good news: Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto has hung on to Harry Reid’s seat, beating Rep. Joe Heck.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 5:14:41 AM +00:00 · David Nir

IL-10: A Democratic pickup in the Chicago suburbs: The AP is calling it for Democratic ex-Rep. Brad Schneider, who defeats GOP Rep. Bob Dold! in their third straight matchup. Schneider won in 2012, Dold in 2014, and Schneider has won again tonight.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 5:17:10 AM +00:00 · David Nir

MI-01: Democrats hoped to pick up this conservative northern Michigan seat, but no dice. Republican Jack Bergman has defeated Democrat Lon Johnson.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 5:18:22 AM +00:00 · David Nir

MO-Sen: Republican Eric Greitens has taken the Missouri governor’s mansion from the Democrats, defeating Democrat Chris Koster. Believe it or not, it’s the first gubernatorial pickup for the GOP tonight.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 5:20:40 AM +00:00 · David Nir

MI-07, MI-08: Republicans have held both of these seats. GOP Rep. Tim Walberg has beaten Democrat Gretchen Driskell in the 7th, and GOP Rep. Mike Bishop has defeated Democrat Suzanna Shkreli in the 8th.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 5:28:14 AM +00:00 · Laura Clawson

New thread here.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 5:29:09 AM +00:00 · David Nir

Daily Kos Elections 2016 downballot liveblog thread #6

Daily Kos Elections

Daily Kos Staff

Tuesday November 08, 2016 · 7:46 PM PST

2016/11/08 · 19:46

ARLINGTON, VA - NOVEMBER 08: People make their way into Fire Station 10 to vote in the 2016 election on November 8, 2016 in Arlington, Virginia. Americans across the nation are picking their choice for the next president of the United States. (Photo by Zach Gibson/Getty Images)

Follow: Presidential Liveblog • Daily Kos Elections on Twitter

Results: CNN • New York Times • Politico

Guides: Poll Closing Times • Hour-by-Hour Guide • County Benchmarks

Cheat Sheets: Senate • Governorships • House • Legislatures • Ballot Measures

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 3:50:06 AM +00:00 · David Nir

WI-08: Very little is going the Democrats’ way tonight, of course, and they’ve lost another open seat that had once looked promising but took a late turn away. Republican Mike Gallagher has defeated Democrat Tom Nelson for this open seat.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 3:51:05 AM +00:00 · David Nir

CO-Sen: We had rated Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet as “safe” for re-election, but given the way things are going, we’ll take a moment to note that he has in fact won a second term over Republican Darryl Glenn.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 3:52:10 AM +00:00 · David Nir

NY-24: This Syracuse-area seat had gone comfortably for Barack Obama, but freshman GOP Rep. John Katko has beaten Democrat Colleen Deacon for a second term. Polling had shown weakness for Clinton in upstate New York, so this wasn’t too surprising.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 3:58:53 AM +00:00 · David Nir

So far on the night, we’re still waiting on a lot of House calls. Democrats have picked up four seats from the GOP (all related to redistricting), while Republicans have picked up two Democratic seats (one because of redistricting). That’s a net gain of 2 for Democrats.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 4:00:26 AM +00:00 · David Nir

Polls have now closed in California, Hawaii, Idaho (the portion in the Pacific Time Zone), Oregon (Pacific Time Zone), and Washington state.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 4:03:18 AM +00:00 · David Nir

CA-Sen: The AP has called California’s all-Democratic Senate race for state Attorney General Kamala Harris, who defeats Rep. Loretta Sanchez to replace the retiring Barbara Boxer.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 4:07:23 AM +00:00 · David Nir

WI-Sen: Obviously all the polls everywhere were wrong tonight, but this one stings extra, because Democrat Russ Feingold looked poised to knock off GOP Sen. Ron Johnson for the longest time. But NBC is calling the race for RoJo, who currently leads 52-45 with 59% reporting.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 4:11:01 AM +00:00 · David Nir

Here’s a bright spot: Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, the worst law enforcement official in America, has lost to Democrat Paul Penzone, per the AP.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 4:17:34 AM +00:00 · David Nir

There are four competitive Senate races that still haven’t been called:

MO-Sen (52% reporting): Blunt (R-inc) 51-45 NH-Sen (62% in): Ayotte (R-inc) 49-47 PA-Sen (72% in): McGinty (D) 49-47

Nothing really in yet from Nevada.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 4:31:07 AM +00:00 · David Nir

NY-19: Progressive star Zephyr Teachout has lost to Republican John Faso in this open seat north of New York City.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 4:32:18 AM +00:00 · David Nir

NY-21, NY-23: Both of these upstate districts were very marginal opportunities for Democrats, and both stayed in the GOP column. Rep. Elise Stefanik prevails in the 21st and Rep. Tom Reed in the 23rd.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 4:33:39 AM +00:00 · David Nir

CO-06: The AP has called this race for GOP Rep. Mike Coffman, who defeats Democrat Morgan Carroll in this suburban Denver seat.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 4:35:27 AM +00:00 · David Nir

IA-03: GOP Rep. David Young hangs on against Democrat Jim Mowrer, an Iraq vet. Democrats had hoped they had a shot here, but Trump’s strength in Iowa (one of the few swing states we had reason to believe he would do well in, before tonight) suggested this race had moved away from Team Blue.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 4:36:38 AM +00:00 · David Nir

IN-02: This seat was a longshot for Democrats, and they did not succeed. GOP Rep. Jackie Walorski has beaten Democrat Lynn Coleman.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 4:38:23 AM +00:00 · David Nir

MN-07: Even though this district is quite conservative, Republicans didn’t bother seriously targeting Democratic Rep. Collin Peterson this year. But with 50% reporting, Peterson is only up 52-48 on his no-name challenger, Dave Hughes.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 4:38:44 AM +00:00 · Laura Clawson

New thread here.

Daily Kos Elections 2016 downballot liveblog thread #4

Daily Kos Elections

Daily Kos Staff

Tuesday November 08, 2016 · 5:57 PM PST

2016/11/08 · 17:57

PHILADELPHIA, PA - NOVEMBER 8: Philadelphia residents go to the polls on November 8, 2016 at Old First Reformed Church in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Americans across the nation are picking their choice for the next president of the United States. (Photo by Jessica Kourkounis/Getty Images)

Follow: Presidential Liveblog • Daily Kos Elections on Twitter

Results: CNN • New York Times • Politico

Guides: Poll Closing Times • Hour-by-Hour Guide • County Benchmarks

Cheat Sheets: Senate • Governorships • House • Legislatures • Ballot Measures

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 2:00:16 AM +00:00 · David Nir

NC-Sen: With 65% reporting per CNN, GOP Sen. Richard Burr is now up 49-48, while Clinton also leads 49-48.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 2:00:38 AM +00:00 · David Nir

Polls have now closed in Arizona, Colorado, Kansas (the portion in the Mountain Time Zone), Louisiana, Michigan (Central Time Zone), Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota (Mountain Time zone plus areas in the Central Time Zone that didn't close an hour ago), South Dakota (Mountain Time Zone), Texas (Mountain Time Zone), Wisconsin, and Wyoming.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 2:03:24 AM +00:00 · David Nir

FL-07: Another House pickup for Democrats: Stephanie Murphy beats GOP Rep. John Mica in this Orlando-area seat. Check out cheat-sheet (linked above) for a full list of all seats changing hands.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 2:07:48 AM +00:00 · David Nir

AZ-Sen: Unsurprisingly, GOP Sen. John McCain has won another term. Democrats landed an unexpectedly strong recruit in Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, but McCain’s incumbency and Arizona’s red lead appear to have been too strong for her to overcome.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 2:17:32 AM +00:00 · David Nir

IN-Gov: Despite most polls showing him ahead, Democrat John Gregg has lost his bid for governor to Republican Lt. Gov. Eric Holcomb.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 2:20:46 AM +00:00 · David Nir

WV-Gov: Even though Trump is utterly romping in West Virginia (once a Democratic stronghold), Democrat Jim Justice has held the governorship for Team Blue against Republican Bill Cole.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 2:42:39 AM +00:00 · David Nir

A quick tour through various Senate races:

MO-Sen (6% in): Kander (D) 49-47

NH-Sen (26% in): Ayotte (R-inc) 48-47

PA-Sen (22% in, but mostly blue turf): McGinty (D) 57-39

WI-Sen (18% in): Johnson 49-48

NC-Sen (78% in): Burr 51-46

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 2:49:36 AM +00:00 · David Nir

IN-09: Democrats had hoped to put this open but dark red seat in play, thanks to the GOP nominating an unappealing candidate in carpetbagging businessman Trey Hollingsworth. But the AP now declares him the winner over Democrat Shelli Yoder.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 2:52:17 AM +00:00 · David Nir

A bright spot out of North Carolina: We're on track to flip the state Supreme Court. Mike Morgan (the good guy) is beating incumbent Bob Edmunds by over 8% with 81% of precincts reporting. That's crucial for thwarting future legislative gerrymanders

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 2:55:32 AM +00:00 · David Nir

VA-10: CNN is calling this race for GOP Rep. Barbara Comstock, who defeats Democrat LuAnn Bennett. This district, in the NoVA DC suburbs, was supposed to be prime #NeverTrump territory.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 2:57:48 AM +00:00 · Laura Clawson

The liveblog continues here.

Daily Kos Elections 2016 downballot liveblog thread #3

Daily Kos Elections

Daily Kos Staff

Tuesday November 08, 2016 · 5:24 PM PST

2016/11/08 · 17:24

Follow: Presidential Liveblog • Daily Kos Elections on Twitter

Results: CNN • New York Times • Politico

Guides: Poll Closing Times • Hour-by-Hour Guide • County Benchmarks

Cheat Sheets: Senate • Governorships • House • Legislatures • Ballot Measures

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 1:28:48 AM +00:00 · David Nir

IN-Sen: It’s a comeback that’s not to be. NBC is saying that former Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh has lost to GOP Rep. Todd Young. That definitely puts a crimp in Dem chances of retaking the Senate, but it's still possible with wins in other states, including WI, PA, and NH. (IL is already a D pickup.)

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 1:30:18 AM +00:00 · David Nir

Polls have now closed in Arkansas.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 1:32:03 AM +00:00 · David Nir

FL-18: Double-bummer: Democrat Randy Perkins has lost to Republican Brian Mast in the race for the House seat left open by Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy, who unsuccessfully ran for Senate.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 1:33:55 AM +00:00 · David Nir

IN-Gov: Meanwhile, Democrat John Gregg’s chances are not looking a whole lot better than Evan Bayh’s. While the governor’s race hasn’t been called yet, Republican Eric Holcomb is up 55-42 with 42% reporting in the race for Mike Pence’s soon-to-be-old job.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 1:35:40 AM +00:00 · David Nir

FL-13: Woohoo! Charlie Crist has finally won a race! The Republican-turned-independent-turned Democrat who lost a Senate bid in 2010 and a gubernatorial bid in 2014 is the winner over GOP Rep. David Jolly. This district was made considerably bluer earlier this year after court-ordered redistricting.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 1:38:19 AM +00:00 · David Nir

NC-Gov, Sen: Still very early in NC, with 9% counted. Democrat Roy Cooper is ahead 53-45 in the governor’s race and Democrat Deborah Ross is up 49-48 in the Senate race.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 1:39:49 AM +00:00 · David Nir

VA-10: The Northern Virginia suburbs should have been prime #NeverTrump territory, as the polls indicated, but GOP Rep. Barbara Comstock may yet survive. She’s up 56-44 over Democrat LuAnn Bennett with 43% reporting.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 1:44:54 AM +00:00 · David Nir

NC-Gov, Sen: Note that that’s 9% of precincts reporting. According to CNN’s calculations, which attempt to forecast how many totals votes will be cast, 60% of all votes have been counted so far, thanks to the magic of early voting. (Many other sites do not consider early votes to be part of a precinct.)

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 1:47:37 AM +00:00 · David Nir

FL-26: CNN is calling GOP Rep. Carlos Curbelo the winner over Democrat Joe Garcia, the man he unseated two years ago.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 1:55:26 AM +00:00 · David Nir

NH-Sen, Gov: Only 10% is reporting in NH, but interestingly, all the Democrats are at about 52%: Maggie Hassan for Senate, Colin Van Ostern for governor, and Hillary Clinton.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 2:04:48 AM +00:00 · Laura Clawson

The liveblog continues here.

Daily Kos Elections 2016 downballot liveblog thread #2

Daily Kos Elections

Daily Kos Staff

Tuesday November 08, 2016 · 4:32 PM PST

2016/11/08 · 16:32

STATE COLLEGE, PA - NOVEMBER 8: Voters cast their ballots in a polling location inside Mike's TV and Appliance November 8, 2016 in State College, Pennsylvania in the center of the state. Americans across the nation are picking their choice for the next president of the United States. (Photo by Jeff Swensen/Getty Images)

Follow: Presidential Liveblog • Daily Kos Elections on Twitter

Results: CNN • New York Times • Politico

Guides: Poll Closing Times • Hour-by-Hour Guide • County Benchmarks

Cheat Sheets: Senate • Governorships • House • Legislatures • Ballot Measures

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 12:30:39 AM +00:00 · David Nir

Polls have now closed in North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 12:42:38 AM +00:00 · David Nir

OH-Sen: It had fallen off the list of competitive races long ago, but for the sake of completeness, we’ll note that GOP Sen. Rob Portman has won a second term, defeating Democratic ex-Gov. Ted Strickland.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 12:52:03 AM +00:00 · David Nir

A deluge of race calls will be coming our way soon enough, but for those of you following the legislative picture, disappointing news out of Kentucky:

With 91% reporting, KY House Speaker Greg Stumbo (D) trailing GOP opponent 52-48. GOP's gonna win back KY state House with a cherry on top
— Reid Wilson (@PoliticsReid) November 9, 2016

Democrats had an incredible streak: They’d held the state House continuously since 1923—even during the GOP waves of 2010 and 2014. But now that’s coming to an end.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 1:00:13 AM +00:00 · David Nir

Polls have now closed in Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida (the portion in the Central Time Zone), Illinois, Kansas (Central Time Zone), Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan (Eastern Time Zone), Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire (towns that didn't close an hour ago), New Jersey, North Dakota (most of the state that's in the Central Time Zone), Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota (Central Time Zone), Tennessee, Texas (Central Time Zone), and Washington, DC.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 1:04:00 AM +00:00 · David Nir

IN-09, VA-05: Some of the “reach” House seats Democrats were hoping to put in play look, well, out of reach. In IN-09, Democrat Shelli Yoder is down 53-43 to Republican Todd Hollingsworth with 39% reporting. In VA-05, Republican Tom Garrett is up 60-40 on Democrat Jane Dittmar with over half of votes reporting.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 1:05:13 AM +00:00 · David Nir

IL-Sen: Hooray! Our first pickup of the night! Democratic Rep. Tammy Duckworth defeats GOP Sen. Mark Kirk, retaking the seat once held by none other than Barack Obama.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 1:07:46 AM +00:00 · David Nir

FL-Sen: Bummer, but not a shocker: GOP Sen. Marco Rubio has been re-elected in Florida, defeating Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy. Rubio infamously refused to pledge to serve a six-year term, so definitely expect another White House run from him in 2020.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 1:09:30 AM +00:00 · David Nir

MO SEN exits: Blunt +2 among men, Kander +16(!!!) among women. Wow, if these are accurate Kander's margin is gonna be unexpectedly big.
— Reid Wilson (@PoliticsReid) November 9, 2016

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 1:10:35 AM +00:00 · David Nir

VA-05: The AP has called the race for Republican Tom Garrett, who defeats Democrat Jane Dittmar in this red open seat.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 1:19:54 AM +00:00 · David Nir

FL-26: Dems had hoped for a pickup here, and Clinton should be doing wlel in this district, but GOP Rep. Carlos Curbelo is romping 53-41 over badly flawed Democratic ex-Rep. Joe Garcia with 82% reporting.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 1:20:50 AM +00:00 · David Nir

FL-07: Dems with a legit pickup shot here, as Democrat Stephanie Murphy is up 52-48 on GOP Rep. John Mica with 86% reporting.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 1:22:29 AM +00:00 · David Nir

FL-13: Democrats had hoped for a relatively easy pickup in this redrawn (and now bluer) district, but ex-Gov. Charlie Crist is only up 52-48 on GOP Rep. David Jolly. However, 91% is now reporting, so it’ll be very hard for Jolly to make that up.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 1:24:41 AM +00:00 · Laura Clawson

New thread here.

Daily Kos Elections 2016 downballot liveblog thread #1

Daily Kos Elections

Daily Kos Staff

Tuesday November 08, 2016 · 2:56 PM PST

2016/11/08 · 14:56

Follow: Presidential Liveblog • Daily Kos Elections on Twitter

Results: CNN • New York Times • Politico

Guides: Poll Closing Times • Hour-by-Hour Guide • County Benchmarks

Cheat Sheets: Senate • Governorships • House • Legislatures • Ballot Measures

Tuesday, Nov 8, 2016 · 11:01:38 PM +00:00 · David Nir

Here we go! The first polls of the historic Nov. 2016 general election have closed! Polls have now closed in Indiana (the portion in the Eastern Time Zone) and Kentucky (Eastern Time Zone).

Tuesday, Nov 8, 2016 · 11:11:03 PM +00:00 · David Nir

The first trickle of results is showing up in Kentucky. Nothing worth taking note of yet.

Tuesday, Nov 8, 2016 · 11:26:04 PM +00:00 · David Nir

We’re currently relying on CNN for results, since they seem to be the most stable and have the best user interface.

Tuesday, Nov 8, 2016 · 11:27:47 PM +00:00 · David Nir

We're also seeing a few votes in Indiana, which has two competitive statewide races (IN-Sen and IN-Gov) and a couple of competitive House races (IN-02 and IN-09).

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 12:00:20 AM +00:00 · David Nir

Polls have now closed in Florida (the portion in the Eastern Time Zone), Indiana (Central Time Zone), Kentucky (Central Time Zone), Georgia, New Hampshire (most towns), South Carolina, Vermont, and Virginia.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 12:06:26 AM +00:00 · David Nir

KY-Sen: We weren’t expecting anything exciting in Kentucky, and sadly, those expectations were met. The AP has called the Senate race for GOP Sen. Rand Paul, who wins a second six-year term after his failed presidential bid earlier this cycle.

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 · 12:29:19 AM +00:00 · Laura Clawson

The liveblog continues here.

Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version

David Jarman

Community

Tuesday November 08, 2016 · 5:31 AM PST

2016/11/08 · 05:31

It’s Election Day, and that brings the Daily Kos Elections predictive model to a close. We’re going out on a pretty high note! As our chief data guru Drew Linzer wrote on Monday, our final projection is for 323 electoral votes for Hillary Clinton and 215 for Donald Trump. And our model is very confident in that figure; our model doesn’t even have any states in the “Tossup” category at this point. The most competitive state on the red side of the ledger is Ohio, where our model says Clinton has only a 13 percent chance of winning (based on a 45-43 aggregate polling deficit), and the most competitive state on the blue side is Nevada, where we say Clinton has a 71 percent chance (thanks to a 45-44 polling lead). In the real world, her odds are probably much higher than that in Nevada, given Democratic performance in the early vote there … but our model can’t account for early vote details.

Currently, our model gives Clinton 92 percent odds of victory; in other words, it’s not mathematically impossible for Trump to win, but it would require a remarkable run of luck. He’d need to flip not only Iowa and Ohio, but also Florida (88 percent Clinton odds, based on a 46-45 aggregate lead), North Carolina (75 percent Clinton odds, based on a 46-45 aggregate), Nevada (where he’s probably already lost), and finally, one of the many states where Clinton has 99 percent odds and aggregate polling leads of 4 points or more (Colorado? Michigan? New Hampshire? Pennsylvania? doesn’t matter; they’re all the same dead end).

So, unless we’re looking down the barrel of a categorical, industry-wide polling error on the magnitude of Truman vs. Dewey, Hillary Clinton will be the next president. (And keep in mind that in 1948, there were only a few pollsters operating, using terrible methods like quota sampling, and they all stopped polling weeks before the election.) The real question at this point, instead, is: what kind of legislative allies can Clinton count on being elected today, to enact her agenda?

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