This is picture is not a politically effective talking point. It won't win us any votes.
I’m talking about trade and tariffs. I’ve heard tariffs described as “explosive lasagna”. I’ve heard how they they will cause job losses and recessions and how they’re bad for “the economy”. I read diaries that quote economic “experts” on how tariffs are bad.
Some of us seem to have had a little too much of that Free Market Kool-Aid.
What’s really scary is that some of us seem to be hoping that the “economic anxiety” that might be caused by these tariffs will give us an electoral payoff. This is a really dangerous idea. (Sort of like burning down your house to make your dinner cook faster).
There are two things we’re missing about Trump’s trade war:
FIRST: Too many of us have swallowed the rightwing / Ayn Rand / University of Chicago / neo-Liberal notion that “Free Trade” is good. Just like “Tax Cuts For The Rich”, “Deregulation”, and “Right-To-Work”, “Free Trade” is another idea that looks good on paper but wrecks middle-class families when applied in the real word.
Remember, a lot of the “economic experts” who love Free Trade are the same ones who think that “Tax Cuts Help The Job Creators” and other rightwing ideas that history has proven wrong. These shills were wrong when their advice gave us the Second Bush Recession. Why are we listening to them now on trade, when they have even fewer data points to back their claims? Have we all forgotten the disaster called NAFTA so soon?
I’m sure that anyone who took freshman Economics will be able to link me dozens of studies showing that Free Trade “helps GDP” or “Increases Economic Output” or “Promotes Innovation”. Some of these studies may be based on empirical data (a rarity for the rightwing school of thought), but most will be theoretical confections with no numbers on the axis of their fancy graphs.
Besides, GDP growth alone doesn’t help working families and it doesn’t win elections. We need growth in wages and employment. Right now the biggest complaints about tariffs are coming from the US Chamber of Commerce and the Heritage Foundation.
Pro Tip for Liberals: When the Heritage Foundation has your back, you’re probably facing in the wrong direction.
Lastly, we should remember that other countries used tariffs to capture our Steel, Auto, Electronics, and Textile industries. I grew up in the rust belt and remember this. And I remember the Republicans (and Democrats) who let it happen because they believed in “free markets”.
SUMMARY: We’re assuming Trump’s tariffs will be bad for workers. Evidence suggests not.
SECOND: Even if the “trade war” is an economic disaster, it still won’t cost Trump very many votes. Think of the average Trump Voter. If he cared about his economic self-interest, he wouldn’t have voted for Trump in the first place, now would he? The key idea we’re missing is that this is a trade war. Remember our Lakoff, people. This is successfully being framed as a national struggle. Any economic pain will be considered “sacrifice” and anyone who whines about the pain will be a quisling traitor. That’s why we keep getting these interviews from the red states on NPR. They go like this (dramatized):
NPR INTERVIEWER: We’re here with Mr. Jefferson Davis Jackson of <small red state town>. He’s the owner of a small business that will get hit with $500 billion in retaliatory French tariffs.
Mr. Jackson, noted University of Chicago economist, Professor Milton Corporateshill says tariffs are bad because they distort the Free Market’s natural ability to solve all human problems. How do you respond?
JEFF DAVIS: I stand with America and our President.
NPR INTERVIEWER: But what about Professor Corporateshill’s (theoretical, not empirical) findings that the velocity of the third derivative of the GDP curve will be negatively impacted and you’ll lose money?
JEFF DAVIS: I’m a simple man with no fancy book learnin’. Besides I saw with my own eyes how those foreigners used tariffs to steal our Steel, Auto, Electronics, and Textile jobs.
NPR INTERVIEWER: Well what about the fact that tariffs have already cost you actual money by raising the price of imported materials your business uses.
JEFF DAVIS: That’s a sacrifice I’m willing to make because I’m a Real American! Do I look like a surrender monkey to you? Now get off my lawn!
SUMMARY: We’re assuming if the Trade War fails, we’ll be rewarded with votes. But we already know that many voters will vote against their economic self-interest. They’ve done it before.
Fellow progressives, Free Trade is not the hill we want to die on.
Trump’s trade policies will probably help workers even if GDP growth suffers. And if they don’t help, there won’t be much political advantage from it. We should stay focused on Trump’s horrible ideas on taxes, healthcare, women’s rights, education, diplomacy, the judiciary, civil rights, decency...etc.
There’s plenty to fight for. Let’s not pick the one attack that will backfire on us.
