Oh for fucks sake:
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, the Arizona Democrat-turned-independent, hasn't publicly announced whether she's running for re-election next year. But privately, her political team has been mapping out a campaign strategy, pitching donors and potential supporters on how she can win the marquee Senate race.
In a two-page prospectus obtained by NBC News, Sinema charts out a path to victory as an independent candidate in Arizona, with a glimpse of her possible campaign message and new details about the unique cross-party coalition she would seek to build in the competitive state.
Under the banner “Kyrsten’s Path to Victory,” the document says Sinema can win by attracting 10% to 20% of Democrats, 60% to 70% of independents and 25% to 35% of Republicans.
Alongside a headshot of her and a section titled “Kyrsten Will Win Arizona,” the document says: “If the parties nominate extremists, as expected, Kyrsten will win a majority of IND, at least a third of REP and a percentage of DEM voters — making her the first Independent to win a three-way statewide race in American history.” A source shared the document, which has circulated among Arizona political operatives in recent days.
Yeah, right. After voting to impeach Trump and pissing off the Democratic base for the past few years, she thinks she’s going to win over GOP voters who were already go vote for this lunatic loser:
Republican Kari Lake, who lost the 2022 race for Arizona governor and has closely aligned herself with former President Donald Trump, is expected to announce a Senate bid as early as next month, two sources familiar with the planning tell CNN.
Lake’s entrance would further scrambles a contest for the seat held by Sen. Kyrsten Sinem, which could end up as a three-way general election. Sinema switched her party affiliation from Democratic to independent in December, and progressive Rep. Ruben Gallego entered the Democratic primary in January. Sinema has not yet publicly said whether she will run for reelection.
A former Arizona television journalist, Lake has built her political image – and her 2022 campaign for governor – around her support for Trump’s false claims about extensive election fraud in the 2020 presidential election. She has become a fixture in Trump’s orbit since losing her gubernatorial bid.
Polling last month may have planted this idea in Sinema’s head that she can win with GOP voters:
PHOENIX (August 3, 2023)- As the 2024 Arizona Senate race looms, recent public opinion polling data fromNoble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) – formerly OH Predictive Insights (OHPI) – latest Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) sheds light on some intriguing dynamics that challenge conventional political wisdom. Contrary to initial assumptions, the potential entry of Senator Kyrsten Sinema as a third-party candidate does not necessarily guarantee a GOP victory. The poll results indicate that Sinema faces challenges within her own party, which might make her path to victory more complex.
This AZPOP, conducted from July 13 – 17, 2023, surveyed 1,000 registered voters in Arizona and had a margin of error of ± 3.1%.
Sinema Re-Election Support
According to the survey, 57% of Arizona voters were at least somewhat willing to support Senator Sinema's re-election bid, while 43% expressed not being very or not at all willing to back her candidacy. Notably, Democrats appeared to be less enthusiastic about supporting her compared to Republicans, with 56% of Democrats expressing reluctance versus 43% of Republicans. Sinema turned off older (73% not very/not at all willing) and female (61% not very/not at all) Democrats in particular. Independents fell in between with 32% expressing hesitation to support Sinema.
But Gallego has an opportunity to not only mobilize Democratic voters but also win over Independent voters. Especially when it comes to the issues:
As Gallego and Sinema circle each other in their distinct styles, the issue of prescription drug reforms could linger as a broader measure of what personal and policy approach Arizona voters want most.
None of the Republicans running or rumored to be considering it indicated they supported the drug-pricing plan, which was tied up in $700 billion of spending, largely around mitigating the effects of climate change.
The prescription drug law involved compromise that is alternately seen as a sellout or realpolitik.
“Ruben’s point is you can always do better,” said Chuck Coughlin, president and CEO of HighGround, a Phoenix-based political consulting firm. “But you can’t always do better if it can’t be done. The Senate is a more integral place in order to craft policy, which has been demonstrated by her ability on a number of issues. His criticism may be valid, but not in a political context.”
Norman Ornstein, the author of books on politics and Congress and a senior fellow emeritus for the American Enterprise Institute, said Gallego never figured to have a leading role in the drug-pricing legislation because he wasn’t on the committee principally shaping the bill in the House. The Senate’s narrow partisan margins meant Sinema always could be, he said.
“Sinema was always going to be a factor, not because she’s a giant in the Senate but because they were going to face the headwinds of a Senate where if you didn’t get every single Democrat, you were going to fail,” he said. “Her vote was a critical one.”
“Put it this way,” Ornstein said, “if the Senate had been 55 Democrats and 45 Republicans, we wouldn’t be looking at her in the same way as a pivotal player.”
Either way, need to get ready to keep Arizona Blue and elect a real Democrat. Click here to donate and get involved with Gallego’s campaign.