Republican Establishment circa 2017.
I realize that the votes won’t be counted for another month yet, but more and more the presidential contest looks to be all but wrapped up in Clinton’s favor.
To me the next question is: what will the composition of the House and Senate be and how will that affect the functions of those bodies in the 115th Congress?
Until this past weekend, the 115th projected to be more of the same as the 114th and 113th: Republicans holding a majority in the House and perhaps retaining control of the Senate. Thus the magic 8 ball says: divided government and much gridlock. However, since Friday’s “grab them by the pu$$y” news the’s been a precipitous drop in support for Trump in the (few) polls, and suspicion that this may mean control of the House may be in play.
Now, I’m a perpetual realist/pessimist so don’t think we’ll be able to pull off retaking a majority in the House. Rather, what I think is more likely is that we go from a 33 seat Republican advantage to something much closer to a 50:50 split — say a 10 seat Republican advantage. (Going with my gut here, not polling as Congressional seats are polled so rarely that I don’t think polling would be much help at this point post-October surprise.)
Pondering this split today got me thinking about what such a slim majority would mean in practical terms. Who would be Speaker? Ostensibly Paul Ryan, but the nihilist clan of the Republican party were already annoyed with him before he, for all intents and purposes, pulled his support from Donald Trump. Would they then turn around and vote for him as Speaker in the next Congress? I find that unlikely, but I also find it unlikely that another Republican would be able to muster the virtually 100% support of their conference to get the Speakership.
Magic 8 ball says: Interesting times ahead!
I certainly hope we grab control of the House, but if not I look forward to the circular firing squad forming in the Republican camp as opposed to it forming in the Democratic one (as I have been unfortunate to witness too many times in my politically active adult life).
