Election anxiety is real — as is PTSD from 2016.
I’ve been there. I’ve felt it.
This is a close race — there should be no denying that. But despite the closeness, I have confidence that we can pull it off.
Below are 18 reasons that I am confident in our chances in November.
1. Demographics are changing
Trump is a relic of a former age and fewer and fewer people are pining for it. People often talk about the gender gap in terms of how many men are supporting trump, but is is actually WOMEN who have changed to become more liberal. Check it out:
How the Last Eight Years Made Young Women More Liberal
In 2001, young men and women had similar political ideologies. Women were more likely to be liberal than men, but just by a little — and through George W. Bush’s and Barack Obama’s presidencies, that didn’t change much.
Then, around 2016, something shifted, a new analysis shows. Women ages 18 to 29 became significantly more liberal than the previous generation of young women. Today, around 40 percent identify as liberal, compared with just 19 percent who say they’re conservative. The views of young men — who are more likely to be conservative than liberal — have changed little.
It’s hard to say definitively what changed for young women in the last eight years, researchers said. But the rise in liberal identification suggests that for a generation of women who were raised being told they could do anything, the triple punch of Hillary Clinton’s loss to Mr. Trump, the #MeToo movement and the overturning of Roe v. Wade forcefully shaped their political views.
2. The polls look good
Yes, the polls need to be taken with a grain of salt in this era. And the polls are tight. But nonetheless, they look good and I would MUCH rather be in our position than theirs.
New Yahoo News/YouGov poll: After debate, Harris surges to 5-point lead over Trump among registered voters in head-to-head matchup
A strong performance in Tuesday’s debate has boosted Vice President Kamala Harris to her biggest lead yet over former President Donald Trump, according to a new Yahoo News/YouGov poll.
In previous Yahoo News/YouGov polls — one following last month’s Democratic National Convention and one released immediately after the vice president entered the race on July 21 — Harris and Trump were effectively tied. Harris’s best showing was a narrow 47% to 46% edge in August.
But the new poll of 1,755 U.S. adults — one of the first conducted after the Sept. 10 debate — shows Harris (50%) surging to a five-point lead over Trump (45%) among registered voters in a head-to-head matchup. She leads by a similar margin when third-party candidates are included (48% to 44%) and when only likely voters are surveyed (49% to 45%).
To put Harris’s numbers in perspective, President Biden — the man she replaced atop the Democratic ticket — never hit 50% against Trump in any Yahoo News/YouGov poll taken during Biden’s presidency. The last time Biden topped 47% was in May 2023.
Here are polls taken since the debate. The VP leads by an average of 4 points nationally. It’s been the best week of polling for the Vice President so far (all polls via 538):
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Harris 52-46 (+6) ABC News
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Harris 50-45 (+5) Morning Consult
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Harris 47-42 (+5) Ipsos
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Harris 51-47 (+4) RMG
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Harris 50-46 (+4) Data For Progress
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Harris 49-45 (+4) YouG/Yahoo
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Harris 49-45 (+4) YouG/Times
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Harris 47-43 (+4) TIPP
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Harris 50-47 (+3) Leger
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Harris 48-45 (+3) SoCal
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Harris 44-42 (+2) Redfield & Wilton
It isn’t just in national polls — Harris is leading in the places we NEED her to be leading
Harris leads Trump in Pennsylvania — and two bellwether PA counties — exclusive poll finds
3. People Like Harris More
This is huge — this is not a “hold your nose” vote which leads people to, perhaps, not even bother to vote. This is a situation where people actually like and trust her more
Harris favorability up 50-44 in latest AP-NORC poll
- Harris is +6 above water in favorability, while Trump is -20 underwater. That is an astounding favorability gap.
- While I know some people here worry about complacency, it’s actually a big positive that a larger number of voters think that Harris is on track to win. The perception of winning is motivating while thinking one’s candidate is likely to lose is demotivating (to donate, to volunteer, and to get to the polls). This finding might indicate that a larger percentage of Trump supporters will stay home.
- It’s possible that what’s holding back bigger polling leads for Harris lies in question #2 above. While she gets 50% favorability, only 44% say she would make a good president, with 14% being unsure. So people like her, but they aren’t yet sold on her as president. As these folks become more confident about her competence, her lead here will likely grow. The same could happen for Trump, but with only 6% unsure about him, he has much less room to expand his positives.
- Moreover, these numbers are better for Harris compared to Hillary and Biden in the AP-NORC poll. Hillary was underwater at 43%-51% before the election and Biden had a similar favorability numbers to Harris at 48%-45%. This is just one more datapoint indicating that Harris is headed towards a strong finish.
Poll Shows Voters Think Kamala Harris Is Tougher Than Donald Trump
A new poll from the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs (AP-NORC) reveals that voters believe Vice President Kamala Harris has more brains and brawn than GOP nominee Donald Trump. According to the numbers, voters chose Harris 59 percent over Trump’s 57 percent when it came to which candidate they felt was tough enough to be president. As for which candidate would change the country for the better, Harris beat Trump again 55 percent compared to 46 percent. Voters also said Harris was more likely to fight for them than Trump, scoring 54 percent and 43 percent respectively. The Associated Press reported that the poll was conducted prior to the second apparent assassination attempt on Trump’s life at his golf course in Florida on Sunday. Fresh off of her dominate debate performance, Harris jumped to a six-point lead over Trump according to numbers from a Morning Consult poll.
More people trust Harris with the economy
4. Early Voting Looks good so far
There are reasons to be cautious about interpreting 2024 numbers relative to 2020 (the pandemic had more people voting by mail). However, early voting MATTERS and is one predictor of who will win. In 2022 Simon Rosenberg was a lone voice arguing that actual VOTING is a pretty darn good predictor of VOTING. He was laughed at but he was RIGHT!
The first day in Virginia was 🔥🔥🔥and it was GREAT to see!!!
Early voting numbers for Day 1 in Fairfax and other counties in VA impressive!
5. People are expecting a Harris win
Expectations are shifting to a Harris win. As Noelle-Neumann showed decades ago, expectations of a win are a leading indicator of engagement and turn-out.
6. Trump can’t get out of his own way
Trump and Vance live in a right wing bubble. They don’t understand how their (awful) words and actions sound to anyone who isn’t already their voter. Unfortunately, we can expect more craziness from trump as we get closer and he gets more desperate. Fortunately, his crazy statements rub most people the wrong way and really hurt with the suburban women he desperately needs.
Trump’s anti-Haitian lies could cost Republicans the House
The racist lie that Donald Trump and running mate JD Vance have promoted about Haitian immigrants eating people’s pets may motivate enough voters against the Republican Party to flip the House to Democrats.
A new ad from the Congressional Black Caucus Political Action Committee aims to do just that. The ad, titled “Our Unity is Our Strength,” features a Haitian American woman providing narration.
“They want to tear us apart,” she explains as the ad highlights the most recent smear and connects it to Trump’s history of bigoted rhetoric, most notably his 2018 reference to Haiti, El Salvador, and African nations as “shithole” countries.
How Harris could win big: Trump's ongoing failures
Trump’s lack of focus
Donald Trump’s debate performance last week was disqualifying. Out of so many key moments in the debate, likely none was more powerful than when Kamala Harris said about Trump and his rallies, “And I will tell you the one thing you will not hear him talk about is you. You will not hear him talk about your needs, your dreams, and your, your desires. And I'll tell you, I believe you deserve a president who actually puts you first. And I pledge to you that I will.”
Trump lying to his own supporters
One of Trump’s most bizarre and consistent lies is that “everybody” wanted abortion “to be brought back into the states,” which he repeated in last week’s debate.
But why does this one lie matter? Because 40% of Republican women consider themselves to be more pro-choice, according to polling from KFF. And some of them must realize he’s lying to their face about their own beliefs. And if he’s willing to lie about that …
Trump plummeting further into conspiracy land
Last week, Trump brought Laura Loomer, a far-right activist who has promoted 9/11 conspiracies, as his guest to a memorial commemorating the Sept. 11 attacks. And not only have major Republicans have publicly expressed horror at her impact on Trump’s messaging and campaign strategy, but also something is certainly broken when far-right Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene is a voice of reason. She called one of Loomer’s recent racist tweets, well, “extremely racist.”
“She is an extreme liability,” a former Trump campaign staffer told Mediate. (Is that you Kellyanne Conway?) “She has no filter on her mouth and says hateful, racist, judgmental things. ... The fact that Trump had someone with limited education who is a complete grifter on his plane, just proves he doesn’t take this election seriously.”
7. Harris isn’t ceding any ground
They have Doug out campaigning in red areas. They are doing rallies in rural areas. They are going to pockets of PA to meet with Polish American folks worried about Putin. They are getting every vote they can get. Like this:
Kamala’s Splashy Play for Trump Toadies
Kamala Harris is heavily flirting with guys she wants to poach from MAGA World, or at least stop them from swinging that way.
Her wingmen are helping by launching an ad blitz targeting white men that will cost around $10 million, a play for a key demographic that tends to favor Donald Trump.
“White dudes, so, I think we’re all pretty sick of hearing how much we suck,” declares a new 68-second ad from the self-described White Dudes for Harris, which will air on YouTube, streaming, and social media in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
The ad's narrator complains that Trump guys are giving all guys a bad rap.
“Trump and all his MAGA buddies are out there making it worse, shouting nonsense in their stupid red hats and acting like they speak for us when they don’t,” he says. “All they’ve ever done is screw us over.”
The eight-figure push is backed by the Beige Rainbow PAC, which registered with the Federal Election Commission a month ago. The name appears to be a reference to a quip West Wing actor Bradley Whitford made during a “White Dudes for Harris” video call earlier this summer.
and this: Kamala Harris knows where her weaknesses are — and she’s steering her campaign bus straight at them.
The vice president isn’t focusing only on big, Democratic strongholds like Milwaukee, Atlanta and Philadelphia. She’s traveling to smaller cities like Eau Claire, Wisconsin, and Savannah, Georgia, too.
And in Pennsylvania, over the last week alone, Harris has not only attended the debate in Philly but gone to Johnstown, a small city in a deep-red expanse; Wilkes-Barre, in a white working-class county that was once reliably Democratic before flipping to former President Donald Trump; and Pittsburgh, a mostly white city surrounded by GOP-friendly areas.
After Trump’s victory in 2016, Democrats forged a deliberate strategy of trying to limit their losses in Republican-leaning areas. But President Joe Biden strayed from that approach earlier this year, focusing mainly on major cities as he tried to repair his problems with the Democratic base. Now, a POLITICO analysis shows, Harris is returning her attention to a different set of redder areas — in campaign swings and advertising — a shift that underscores her unique strengths
The campaign is less concerned now about locking up the Democratic base, eschewing the need to focus quite as heavily on major liberal cities like Philly. Instead, Harris’ team sees room to grow among many of the types of voters located in the smaller cities, exurban locales and rural areas that she is now visiting: older, mostly non-college-educated, white voters.
8. Trump is hemorrhaging GOP support
“Republicans for Harris” Keeps Expanding With the Help of Ex-Reagan Staffers
Just over a month ago, the Harris-Walz ticket launched what it called “a campaign within a campaign”: an initiative called “Republicans for Harris,” aimed at wooing Trump-skeptical conservatives.
Proof continues to emerge that it’s working. On Sunday, yet another group of influential Republicans—more than a dozen former high-level staffers in former President Ronald Reagan’s administration—voiced their support for Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign and urged other Republicans to follow suit.
In a blistering letter, first reported by CBS, the group invoked the title of Reagan’s famous 1964 speech, “A Time for Choosing,” he delivered on behalf of Republican presidential candidate Barry Goldwater, which wound up putting the future president on the national map.
“The time for choosing we face today is a choice between integrity and demagoguery, and the choice must be Harris-Walz,” the ex-staffers wrote. “The choice between truth and lies demands support for Harris-Walz. The choice between freedom and suppression of freedoms means support for Harris-Walz. The choice between serving the people and serving the few leads us to support Harris-Walz.”
The signatories—who include Ken Adelman, US Ambassador to the United Nations under Reagan; Pete Souza, White House photographer for both Reagan and former President Barack Obama; B. Jay Cooper, deputy assistant to Reagan—also said they “know [Reagan] would join us in supporting the Harris-Walz ticket.” (Former Rep. Adam Kinzinger [R-Ill.] said the same in a post on X this week.)
GOP Mayor to Trump: Don’t Come to Springfield After Your Dog-Eating Slurs
Amid bomb threats to local schools and other city buildings that are leaving residents in fear, the mayor of Springfield, Ohio, says he would prefer Donald Trump didn’t visit the beleaguered city after his inflammatory comments about immigrants eating pets.
“It would be an extreme strain on our resources,” Mayor Rob Rue, a Republican, said on Tuesday, speaking with members of the media at City Hall, reports NBC News.
“So it’d be fine with me if they decided not to make that visit.”
111 Former Republican Officials Endorse Kamala Harris and Denounce Trump as ‘Unfit to Serve’
Over 100 former Republican officials—ex-members of congress, secretaries of defense, directors of the CIA, and national security leaders—endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris in an open letter Wednesday after determining their party’s nominee Donald Trump is “unfit to serve again as president.” Among the more prominent signatories were former defense secretaries William Cohen and Chuck Hagel, who both served as GOP senators before joining the cabinets of Democrat presidents. Former CIA directors Michael Hayden and William Webster also signed the letter which savaged Trump’s presidency. “As president, he promoted daily chaos in government, praised our enemies and undermined our allies, politicized the military and disparaged our veterans, prioritized his personal interest above American interests and betrayed our values,” the letter reads. The signatories wrote they support Harris because she has “consistently championed the rule of law, democracy and our constitutional principles.” Trump, by comparison, they said is susceptible “to flattery and manipulation by Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping” and has an “unusual affinity for other authoritarian leaders” and “contempt for the norms of decent, ethical and lawful behavior.”
9. Vance is a huge liability
dude started off as weird and dislikable and has become weirder and more dislikable over time. Worst VP pick ever. Hands down.
How Is JD Vance So Bad at All of This?
When questioned by CNN’s Dana Bash over the weekend about his baseless claims about Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, the Republican nominee for vice president melted down, calling her a “Democratic propagandist.” He insisted that it was “disgusting” to insinuate that his lies had led to threats against Springfield’s Haitian community, as well as city schools and hospitals.
“Andy, you can’t make this idiot make sense,” Danielle tells co-host Andy Levy. “He is so very bad at this, and by ‘this,’ I mean ‘seeming normal,’ being able to do regular interviews and not get himself caught up in a web of lies.”
10. Kamala has tons of support from influential people
We thought it was a big deal when Swift endorsed. But don’t count out Oprah!
With abortion in focus, Harris’s event with Oprah prompts cheers and tears
A star-studded online rally designed to showcase the enthusiasm and energy behind Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign turned somber as host Oprah Winfrey introduced the mother of a woman who died after waiting for health care in a state that has banned most abortions.
Several people in the live audience were wiping their eyes by the time Thurman’s family members, including two sisters, finished speaking. The emotional moment prompted Harris to deliver some of her most forceful lines of the event — which over nearly 100 minutes turned the vice president’s campaign into a modern-day version of Winfrey’s popular daytime talk show.
Hundreds of thousands of people watched the event, which was an outgrowth of various Zoom meetings that came together in the days after President Joe Biden ended his reelection bid — with groups including Win With Black Women, White Dudes for Harris and Swifties for Kamala gathering by the thousands to show their support for Harris.
The campaign cast the event — which featured a live audience of a few hundred people — as an opportunity to showcase the breadth of support for Harris and as a call to action for those watching online.
“I just want to say, for all of you watching who are still on the fence, you’re in the middle. You’re independent as I am,” Winfrey said, adding that “this is the moment” for such voters to make a choice. “As my friend and mentor Maya Angelou always said, when you know better, you got to do better. … So let’s do better and vote for Kamala Harris.”
11. They have the worst candidates
Mark Robinson did not emerge in a vacuum….
Mark Robinson is a Trump problem of Trump’s own making
Trump has foisted damaging candidates on the GOP for years. They’ve hurt the party more than him personally, but that could be changing in North Carolina.
For years, Donald Trump has directly and indirectly foisted damaging candidates on the GOP, in ways that have obviously cost his party dearly — up to and probably including control of the Senate.
It’s not just his endorsements of several flawed statewide candidates who went on to badly underperform and lose key races; it’s also the ethos he’s created in the party. He’s placed a premium on owning the libs and devotion to Trump, and he’s devalued political bona fides. He has effectively encouraged his party to overlook a Trump-loyal candidate’s very obvious baggage, by dismissing it as lies from the liberal media or even viewing it as an asset.
But if even a small handful of people look at Robinson and it sours them on the GOP ticket as a whole, that could matter greatly. North Carolina was decided by just more than a point in 2020, and it’s been polling very closely in 2024. Not only that, but it appears to be one of three states Trump is emphasizing as his most likely path to victory, with the others being Georgia and Pennsylvania.
This whole thing was also utterly predictable and potentially avoidable, but for Trump. Robinson has been saying highly controversial things for years, but he wound up getting only token opposition in the GOP primary. Trump helped grease the skids by signaling as far back as June 2023 that he would be supporting Robinson.
12. Our ground game is 🔥🔥🔥
I know not everyone agrees with this, but, from day 1, I thought our underperformance (relative to polls) in 2020 was due to our complete lack of ground game. We respected COVID rules and they did not. It was the right thing to do, but it really hurt us.
Now we are WAY ahead on the ground!!
Democrats Are Building the Ground Game They Wish They’d Had in 2020.
Democrats are hoping to tap into every advantage that they didn’t have last time they had to run against Donald Trump, including that they’re not running in a global pandemic.
Kamala Harris’ campaign and an array of liberal groups have built a massive door-to-door canvassing operation, the kind of comprehensive voter-outreach effort they were unable to do in 2020. They hope it can help the party turn out voters — many of them in cities and dismissive of any political communication other than a face-to-face conversation — who didn’t come out to vote four years ago.
“Everything fell short in 2020,” said Joan Kato, a veteran Democratic field organizer. “Nobody was able to register voters as they thought. Nobody was able to knock on as many doors as they wanted. We weren’t able to reach as many communities that needed extra hand-holding and that extra touch to remind them to vote.”
Being able to do so in 2024, she said, could add tens of thousands of votes to Harris’ total in key states.
“We think, when you’re in this super close election, and I think it’ll be closer than it was in 2016 or 2020 in Nevada, we think it absolutely makes the difference,” said Ted Pappageorge, secretary treasurer of the Culinary Workers Union Local 226, which runs the largest field program in the state and forms the backbone of Democratic efforts there.
The debate over whether Democrats’ field program can turn out an extra tranche of voters in November really began after the 2020 election, when some party operatives blamed the weakened ground game for tighter-than-expected results. Officials with the Texas Democratic Party, for instance, highlighted it as a primary reason its candidates didn’t fare better that year.
Inside the Harris campaign's push to get young voters to the polls
The Harris-Walz campaign used Voter Registration Day to launch a “Youth Vote Week of Action” on Wednesday aimed at mobilizing Gen Z to head to the polls. The initiative combines social media outreach with in-person events on college campuses in key swing states such as Georgia, North Carolina, and Nevada.
The team announced an “all-hands-on-deck mobilization” designed to “reach young voters where they are—online and in person, on campuses, and in their communities.”
Since announcing her candidacy, Vice President Kamala Harris has aimed to cut through the crowded online space. The campaign hosted online influencers during the Democratic National Convention to help reach younger voters who primarily gather information through real-time sharing of articles and memes. Harris’ team recognizes that for younger voters, the discourse is taking place on social media.
Now that the campaign has captured Gen Z’s attention, it aims to translate that engagement into solid poll numbers. Democratic vice presidential nominee Tim Walz will travel to college campuses to connect with young voters and collaborate with influencers. The ticket is modernizing traditional, shoe-leather political campaigning methods to hold over 130 events on campuses and at sporting events to register new voters.
13. The Nebraska gambit is a sign of desperation and won’t work
perhaps you are losing sleep about the gambit to take the extra vote away from Nebraska. Not only will it not work (Maine has our backs, see below) but it is another sign that they are panicking!
Why Trump's wild new scheme to win an extra electoral vote won't work
In Nebraska on Tuesday, two dozen state senators met with Gov. Jim Pillen as part of what may be the cycle’s most unlikely scheme to save Donald Trump. The plot drew in Trump’s most sycophantic sycophant, Sen. Lindsey Graham, and is part of a national effort to steal away just one potential electoral vote from Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris.
Now Republicans are trying to change those rules at the last minute in hopes that this will snatch victory from Harris and restore Trump to the White House. But not only is this extremely unlikely to make a difference in the overall race, it would set off a waiting trap that would cost Trump at least as much as he gained.
However, not only is it extremely unlikely the election comes down to one electoral vote, but also all the efforts to change Nebraska’s system are probably pointless in the first place.
That’s because the state senator who brought this idea to Nebraska back in 1991 got the idea from another state that had already split the vote: Maine. And if Nebraska decides to slip their system back to winner-take-all, Maine House Majority Leader Maureen Terry has promised that the Pine Tree State has promised to follow suit.
This matters because Maine has a reliable little red dot—a single rural Maine electoral vote, which Trump picked up in 2016 and 2020.
Flipping Maine to winner-take-all would be more certain to take a point away from Trump than changing Nebraska would be to take a point from Harris. The latest Maine polling shows Trump leading Harris 49% to 42% in Maine’s 2nd District, but Harris with a 50% to 41% advantage statewide.
That Republicans are working so hard to push change in Nebraska is a real sign of Trump's desperation. But it’s not a real threat to Harris’ election.
14. We have the money advantage
How Harris could win big: The numbers
So much money
The Trump campaign was so pleased to announce its August fundraising haul of $130 million, with one senior adviser saying, “These fundraising numbers from August are a reflection of that movement and will propel President Trump’s America First movement back to the White House.”
But just a few days later—bam!—the Harris campaign announced that during the same month, it had raked in $361 million, or nearly three times what Trump raised. And you know what’s crazy? Trump’s fundraising numbers were down from July, when he raised just over $138 million. So much for momentum.
Map Shows 10 States Targeted by Democrats in $25 Million Voter Drive
Democrats are investing $25 million into expanding voter outreach across 10 states in a bid to defend their narrow Senate majority.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee announced on Monday that the money will be distributed across Arizona, Florida, Maryland, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin.
It will go toward efforts to defend five Democratic incumbents and open seats in Michigan, Maryland and Arizona, as well as efforts to unseat Republican incumbents in Florida and Texas, The Associated Press reported.
15. The Roe effect is real
we have overperformed polls and past elections in every election since that awful SCOTUS overturned Roe. Every reason to think that will continue
Democrats target GOP over reproductive rights as election nears
Democrats pushed again this week to spotlight Republicans’ unpopular positions on reproductive rights, slamming Senate Republicans for voting Tuesday to block a bill to expand access to in vitro fertilization and accusing former president Donald Trump of putting women’s lives at risk.
The Senate vote aimed to remind voters two years after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade that Trump appointed the justices who backed that decision, that congressional Republicans could seek to ban abortion nationwide, and that even non-abortion procedures such as IVF could be at risk.
Vice President Kamala Harris on Tuesday called Republicans’ opposition to the bill “extreme, dangerous, and wrong” in a statement after the vote failed. “Our administration will always fight to protect reproductive freedoms, which must include access to IVF.”
16. Lots of good signs on the ground
I, like many other people, thought we would win in 2016. The moment when I realized that we might not was a drive through central PA when we saw SO MANY Trump signs and not one HRC sign. I mean LOTS of Trump signs. Every house. Every corner. Every barn. Big ones. Flags. Etc. I got more and more nervous and I remember saying to my husband “we really might lose this.”
I haven’t seen anything like that this time. Sure there are trump signs. But way less than then. WAY LESS. And I keep seeing people post about similar good signs on the ground. Like this one that was LITERALLY on the ground in ruby red rural NY:
17. Kamala Keeps Expanding our Map
The more paths to 270, the better.
From just this week:
Electoral College Map Hands Kamala Harris Another State
The state of Virginia has moved from a tossup to one which "leans" toward Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 election, according to forecasters.
Virginia is the second state which Real Clear Polling has shifted from tossup to lean Democrat in recent weeks. On July 27, days after President Joe Biden ended his reelection campaign and endorsed Harris in the 2024 race, Real Clear Polling moved Democratic stronghold of Minnesota and its 10 Electoral votes to "lean Harris."
Electoral College Map Hands Kamala Harris Third State in a Row
Apolling aggregator's Electoral College map forecast has moved New Hampshire from a toss-up to one leaning towards Vice President Kamala Harris.
‘It’s such a dramatic contrast’: Harris turns North Carolina into a toss-up
in America’s nail-biting 2024 presidential election, North Carolina is now in play. It rejoins a select list of crucial swing states whose voters will decide if Harris becomes America’s first woman of color to win the White House or if Donald Trump returns to the Oval Office from which he wreaked political chaos for four years.
Biden’s withdrawal and Harris’s ascent scrambled the math. North Carolina’s secretary of state, Elaine Marshall, described the reaction as euphoric.
“It’s such a dramatic contrast from that venom, that poison, that hatred that’s coming from Republican events,” she said. “That contrasts so strongly with the hope and the expectations of the future from Democratic party events.”
The Trump campaign reportedly abandoned its efforts to mount a serious contest in New Hampshire, Minnesota and Virginia recently. That leaves seven states in the political battleground – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and now North Carolina.
A re-energized Democratic electorate has been visible in polling data, which now shows the state as tied. Part of that is the roughly 20% of North Carolinians who are Black; increased African American voter turnout helped Obama win the state in 2008.
If Trump loses North Carolina, it could be an early night — and curtains for GOP
Naturally, most election coverage has focused on the “blue wall” states (Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan), with modest attention to Arizona and Georgia, all of which Joe Biden won in 2020. However, North Carolina is where felon and former president Donald Trump’s political career might end. If so, it might be an early election night, leaving less room for Trump’s election denial shenanigans.
It was no accident that Vice President Kamala Harris’s first two rallies after her smashing debate victory were in North Carolina. Two rallies, with an estimated total of 25,000 people attending, were raucous and enthusiastic affairs, rekindling Democratic prospects of a win in the state.
Democrats hope that momentum determines the presidential winner and even changes the contours of election night. North Carolina polls close early, at 7:30 p.m. Moreover, state law allows processing of mail-in votes well before Election Day, making an early count possible. (Some states, including Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, cannot start processing until Election Day, which could result in delays of several days before a winner is determined.) Should Harris win North Carolina’s 16 electoral votes, Trump’s chances of victory diminish greatly. He would need a virtual sweep of other battleground states (and likely all of the blue-wall states).
Could Harris Take Florida and North Carolina? The Data Suggests She Can.
With fewer than 50 days left until the presidential election, two key states are now in play: Florida and North Carolina. In fact, Kamala Harris’s historic candidacy has galvanized voters across the political spectrum to such an extent that nearly every state Barack Obama won in 2012 is within reach and winnable by Harris. But, surprisingly, you won’t see much mention of this critical development on the electoral landscape.
18. I’d never bet against us
No wins will happen without our hard work. Luckily, I know us, and we work hard!
What can you do to save democracy?
You can donate (please, please pick one and donate):
You can do something else:
there are many things that you can do. Now is the time to do them! Pick something and DO IT!! Seriously. Do something.
On The Lighter Side
What can you do to save democracy?
You can donate (please, please pick one and donate):
You can do something else:
there are many things that you can do. Now is the time to do them! Pick something and DO IT!! Seriously. Do something.
I am so proud and so lucky to be in this with all of you ✊🏼✊🏽✊🏾✊🏿 💙❤️💛💚✊🏼✊🏽✊🏾✊🏿
![Text of Meme: "Voting isn’t marriage. It’s public transport. You’re not waiting for 'the one' who’s absolutely perfect; you’re getting the bus, and if there isn’t one to your destination, you don’t not travel — you take the one going closest." Debbie B. Moon Source: https://medium.com/@vickipps/voting-isnt-marriage-it-s-public-transport-b7630e6b210a](https://cdn.prod.dailykos.com/images/1062901/large/image.png?1650988509 "Text of Meme: "Voting isn’t marriage. It’s public transport. You’re not waiting for 'the one' who’s absolutely perfect; you’re getting the bus, and if there isn’t one to your destination, you don’t not travel — you take the one going closest." Debbie B. Moon Source: https://medium.com/@vickipps/voting-isnt-marriage-it-s-public-transport-b7630e6b210a")
