Kentucky House of Representatives Election Preview: part II

GradyDem

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Monday November 05, 2018 · 12:16 PM PST

2018/11/05 · 12:16

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This is part two of my Kentucky State House election preview. You can read Part I (Districts 1-65) here.

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This diary previews elections for State House Districts 66-100. Two years ago, Republicans finally won the State House. They immediately moved on an amibitious agenda, including charter schools, right-to-work, a repeal of the prevailing wage, limits on Planned Parenthood funding, a ban on abortion after the 20thweek of pregnancy, the abolition of the University of Louisville board of trustees, and bible literacy.

But this year, things started to go south for Kentucky Republicans. First, four Republicans, including Speaker Jeff Hoover, were implicated in a sexual harassment scandal. Then, Republicans decided to tackle the pension system, which was quickly running out of money. Governor Bevin proposed a plan that would end guaranteed benefit pension plans and switch workers to a 401(k) type plan while Republican legislators passed a slimmed down proposal that would only affect future workers. Current workers would no longer get a 4% return on retirement savings and changes would be made to how workers could use saved-up sick days. Teachers and state workers were livid, and daily protests at the state capital commenced. After passing the pension bill (which you will see I refer to many times in this article), Republicans agreed to a tax bill that would decrease taxes on the wealthy and corporations and expand consumptive taxes that fall on the middle class. This unleashed a new round of protests. Finally, Bevin criticized educators and said that their protests had allowed their students to get raped.

Democrats went into 2018 thinking they would have a difficult time holding their own seats, let alone gaining new seats. But Matt Bevin has become extremely toxic in urban areas, suburban areas, small towns, and rural areas. No longer is the debate about coal or the EPA or liberal values. Almost every election has revolved around pensions, public sector workers, and economic growth. In some cases, that is helping the Republicans. But by in large, that is helping the Democrats. Most experts think the Democrats will gain between 5 and 7 seats tomorrow, enough to break the supermajority of the Republicans.

Read on to hear what I think about each race…

KY-HD-66…Bevin 66-30, Knipper 67-33, Westerfield 62-38, Trump 68-25. This district is located in northwestern Boone County in northern Kentucky. This district consists of areas that remain rural (even with the rapid growth of the Cincinnati suburbs) with a few towns like Burlington, Petersburg, and Idlewild. Republican incumbent Addia Wuchner announced retirement just hours before the filing deadline, allowing her preferred replacement to file without primary challengers. That preferred replacement was attorney C. Ed Massey, who has been running to the left of most Republicans. He opposes charter schools and Bevin’s pension bill and has received the support of the Kentucky Education Association, though he is pro-life and pro-2^ndAmendment. Massey’s opposition to Bevin has resulted in a split in the Republican Party. While legislative Republicans are backing Massey, Bevin is actually backing an Independent, named Stacie Earl. Earl is running as a true conservative, with an emphasis on reducing “oppressive taxes,” red tape, and government regulations. There is also a Democrat in this race, Roberto Henriquez, who is running on a platform of increasing financial literacy education, investment in renewable energy, and new funding for infrastructure. And to make matters even more confusing, there are two minor party candidates: Libertarian Lex Hannan and Write-In Brett Wesseling. Massey has raised $22K, Henriquez has raised $4K and Earl has raised $6K. Considering Bevin is probably underwater in the district, I expect Massey to win, though even a surprise win by Henriquez (if Earl and Massey split the conservative vote) wouldn’t be too surprising. Safe R.

KY-HD-67…Conway 51-44, Grimes 54-46, Beshear 59-41, Trump 49-44. This district is located at the northern tip of Campbell County in northern Kentucky. Campbell County is the Ohio River County that has best retained its pre-suburban character. The suburban parts of Campbell County, located in this district, have become the “entertainment center” of northern Kentucky. Historically, the district was known for its casinos and gambling. Incumbent Democrat Dennis Keene, the Minority Caucus Chair, is seeking reelection. Keene is highly regarded as a prodigious fundraiser and could be an effective candidate for statewide office. Keene is running on opposition to the Bevin tax bill, investing in prevention services to combat the opioid epidemic, and legislation to eliminate wasteful boards and commissions. Keene faces Bob Schrage, a businessman and professor. Schrage has emphasized the need to invest in treatment and outpatient services with a goal of decreasing recidivism. He also says he opposes tolls for the Brent Spence Bridge replacement. Keene has raised $117K while Schrage has raised $27K. Keene’s name ID might be a bit low, since he has been unchallenged the last few cycles. But this district is still Democratic downballot, and I think he’ll take it. Likely D.

KY-HD-68…Bevin 59-37, Knipper 62-38, Westerfield 56-44, Trump 64-29. We continue our tour of Northern Kentucky, staying in Campbell County. This district incorporates the outer suburbs of Cincinnati and then drifts south to pickup rural agricultural areas. The district’s main town, Alexandria, has the perfect motto: “Where city meets country.” Incumbent Republican Joe Fischer is seeking another term. Fischer is running on his support for right-to-work, his vote to repeal prevailing wage, income tax cuts passed during the last session, and the pension bill. In the next session, he wants to work on reducing regulations, reform the civil justice system, and build a new school in Grant’s Lick. Fischer faces businessman Jason Kilmer, a Democrat, in the general election. Kilmer has criticized Fischer for “undermining” public schools, taxing working families, not doing enough to solve the opioid epidemic, and not seriously considering medical marijuana or sports betting. Fischer has raised $40K while Kilmer has raised $18K. Kilmer’s fundraising is pretty good since Democrats normally don’t put up a candidate here. This area continues to be very Republican, even downballot. Safe R.

KY-HD-69…Bevin 57-38, Knipper 58-42, Westerfield 53-47, Trump 59-34. This district is located in parts of Boone and Kenton County in northern Kentucky. This area has seen a rapid explosion in population over the last decade and consists of automobile manufacturing, retail, and suburban homes. Republican incumbent Adam Koenig is running for reelection. Like Fischer, Koenig is embracing the Bevin agenda, particularly his vote to reform the tax code, his vote for right-to-work, and his vote to reform worker compensation. Koenig wants to work on improving infrastructure in the future, especially as Amazon has recently announced a new cargo hub at the Northern Kentucky International Airport in his district. Koenig’s challenger is Col Owens, a professor and former member of the Covington Board of Education. Owens has argued that Koenig has opposed the interests of working people and educators. He wants to ensure universal healthcare access, expand infrastructure funding, and establish incentives for renewable energy. Koenig has raised $93K while Owens has raised $68K. Owens’ fundraising is amazing considering this is one of the most solidly Republican areas of Kentucky downballot. Koenig should win, but it will be interesting to see if Owens can get to 40 or 45%.

KY-HD-70…Bevin 55-42, Grimes 52-48, Westerfield 51-49, Trump 73-24. This district is located in rural northeastern Kentucky, in the Bluegrass region. The area is known for its farms and its wide-open fields. Manufacturing and distribution centers are mostly in the small towns of the district like Maysville. In somewhat of an embarrassment for Republicans, Democratic incumbent John Sims Jr. is unchallenged for reelection.

KY-HD-71…Bevin 68-28, Knipper 61-39, Westerfield 66-34, Trump 77-19. This district is located where the Bluegrass region, the Mississippi Plateau and the Cumberland Plateau come together. It encompasses Garrard County, Rockcastle County, and the parts of Madison County west of Richmond. The region is home to outdoor recreational opportunities and the Kentucky Music Hall of Fame. Powerful House Majority Leader Jonathan Shell was defeated in a major upset in the primary. Republicans instead nominated Travis Brenda, a local teacher. Brenda is campaigning as an outright liberal on economic issues. He opposes Bevin’s tax cuts and the pension bill, and has the support of unions that would normally back Democrats. On other issues like the 2^ndAmendment, abortion, and regulations, Brenda is a typical conservative. Democrats have nominated Mary Renfro, a member of the Madison County School Board. Like Brenda, Renfro is concerned about pensions and the opioid crisis. Brenda has raised $16K and Renfro has raised $4K. This is a heavily Republican district and Brenda should easily win. Safe R.

KY-HD-72…Conway 52-44, Grimes 61-39, Beshear 57-43, Trump 63-32. This district is located just northeast of Lexington, in the heart of Bluegrass Country. Most of the region is known for its horse farms, its hemp, and its historic small towns. Democratic incumbent Sannie Overly is retiring. Democrats have nominated Emily Ferguson, a legislative staffer who grew up in the area. Ferguson is campaigning on repealing the pension bill and the charter schools bill, expanding broadband internet access, and focusing on prevention and treatment in fighting the opioid epidemic. Ferguson has been attacked by outside Republican groups for not really living in the district. Ferguson faces Republican Matt Koch. Koch is a local business owner and former marine officer who wants to promote the future of agriculture, improve local infrastructure, and alive by faith, integrity, and compassion. Koch is well known for attracting businesses to Bourbon County, and for his work with the University of Kentucky Ag Equine Programs. Ferguson is young and not as rooted in the community as most Kentucky House candidates. However, she has connections to Overly, a proven vote getter and powerful member of the Democratic caucus, and Adkins, the current House Minority Leader. She is also helped by the presence of a Libretarian candidate, Ann Cormican. Ferguson has raised $69K while Koch has raised $57K. Because this district still leans Democratic on the local level, I’m going to give the edge to Ferguson, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Koch wins. Lean D.

KY-HD-73…Bevin 56-40, Grimes 51-49, Westerfield 53-47, Trump 67-28. This district takes in Clark County and the northern areas of Madison County (in the Bluegrass region) This district is primarily agricultural, growing hemp and even some tobacco, though areas of Winchester, the county seat, have an industrial base. Republican incumbent Donna Mayfield grew so disgusted with the divisiveness of politics that she has chosen to retire. Republicans have nominated businessman Les Yates. Yates entered the race because he believes taxpayer dollars are being wasted on unnecessary regulations. He opposes a prevailing wage, but supports a “decent wage.” Democrats have nominated Pat Banks, an artist, and business owner. Banks supports restoring the prevailing wage, wants to focus on environmental issues, and like Yates, is not ready to support medical marijuana and industrial hemp, but wants to do more research on both issues. Democrats had high hopes for a surprise win here in 2016, but the red wave was too much to overcome. The pension issue has been resonating in smaller cities, and Winchester is in this district, so it is one too watch. Banks has outraised Yates, $15K to $12K. Likely R.

KY-HD-74…Bevin 54-42, Grimes 57-43, Beshear 50-50, Trump 70-27. This district is located east of Lexington in Montgomery, Menifee, and Powell County. The area has a lot of conservative Democrats, who have historically supported unions. Republican David Hale is seeking reelection to a third term. Hale is a fiscally liberal Republican, and joined with Democrats to oppose the repeal of prevailing wage, anti-union “paycheck protection” legislation, telephone deregulation, home school student rights, charter schools, income tax cuts and more. Hale did support the pension bill earlier this year and on other issues he has backed Republicans (e.g. the “Blue Lives Matter” bill). He faces a rematch with James Davis, an attorney from Montgomery County. Davis lost the 2016 race by 15 points, despite high hopes from Democrats. This year, he will need a large margin out of Montgomery County (the largest county by population) to offset Hale’s support in tiny Menifee County. Hale has raised $59K while Davis has raised $22K. Hale has gone up on the air with television ads though both candidates are running relatively low-key campaigns. It seems like Hale will once again manage to outperform, and Democrats will need to look to someone besides Davis to win this seat back. Lean R.

KY-HD-75…Conway 64-30, Grimes 70-30, Beshear 69-31, Clinton 59-32. This district is located in Lexington, contains the University of Kentucky, and some other areas south of downtown. Lexington’s economy remains strong and is anchored by Xerox, Lexmark International, Lockheed-Martin and IBM. Besides from the University of Kentucky, this district has some government employees and other professionals. I believe Rupp Arena is in this district (where the University of Kentucky basketball team plays). Incumbent Democrat Kelly Flood is seeking another term. Flood is a progressive Democrat and has been a vocal supporter of culture and the arts in Lexington and electing more women to state government. She is unchallenged for reelection. Safe D.

KY-HD-76…Conway 66-34, Grimes 65-35, Beshear 65-35, Clinton 55-39. This district is located northeast of downtown and consists of middle class areas of Lexington. Incumbent Democrat Ruth Ann Palumbo is seeking another term. According to the Lexington Herald Leader’s endorsement, Palumbo has focused on Medicaid expansion, lowering costs of payday loans, and opposing anti-abortion bills and Bevin’s pension bill. Palumbo is challenged by Richard Marrs, a Republican businessman. Marrs lost to Palumbo by 18 points in 2010, 9 points in 2012 and by 18 points in 2014. He is conservative on fiscal and social issues. This district is what passes for the hotbed of the resistance in Kentucky, and Palumbo has outraised Marrs $41K to $9K. She should easily win reelection. Safe D.

KY-HD-77…Conway 77-23, Grimes 75-25, Beshear 75-25, Clinton 68-26. This district is located in northwest Lexington and contains the minority areas of the city. The area has seen some more development in recent years, especially as Lexington’s population has moved outward towards the Fayette County line. Incumbent Democrat George Brown is seeking a third term. Brown has focused on supporting the Poor People’s Campaign, gun safety laws, and restoring the right to vote for people convicted of a felony. Brown is challenged by Republican Marianne Weiss, who is running a nearly non-existent campaign. Safe D.

KY-HD-78…Bevin 53-42, Knipper 50-50, Westerfield 51-49, Trump 70-25. This district is located in the northern Bluegrass Region and includes Democratic areas of Georgetown in Scott County, and Harrison and Pendleton Counties. The area is predominantly agricultural and consists of horse farms. Republican incumbent Mark Hart is running for a second term. Hart is focusing on reducing bureaucratic red tape and reforming the tax code to be more consumption-based. Hart is being challenged by Greg Coulson, an attorney from Cynthiana. Coulson is focused on repealing the charter school bill and dealing with opioid addiction in a “more scientific and cost monitored manner.” Coulson has the benefit of being from the populated area of the district, and has amassed quite a following on social media. He has secured the endorsement of the AFL-CIO and other local unions as well. The Kentucky Gazette surprisingly rates this district “Leans Democratic” which suggests that opposition to the pension bill is playing well in small towns like Cynthiana. Hart has raised $31K while Coulson has raised $26K. I’ll say Tossup, but this is one to watch.

KY-HD-79…Conway 57-37, Grimes 64-36, Beshear 62-38, Clinton 54-38. This district is located southeast of downtown Lexington. This district is composed mainly of middle-class residential areas and is the site of most of the city’s current growth. Incumbent Democrat Susan Westrom is seeking reelection. Westrom is the lead author of the state smoking ban, a controversial bill in Kentucky politics. She recently co-sponsored a bill to improve accountability for how area development districts decide where to spend money. Westrom faces Josh Irvin, a Republican, who is focused on Kentucky’s huge debt and the need for medical liability reform. Westrom has raised $97K while Irvin has raised $2K. Westrom should easily win reelection. Safe D.

KY-HD-80…Bevin 67-29, Knipper 58-42, Westerfield 64-36, Trump 77-19. This district takes in Lincoln County and areas northwest of Somerset in Pulaski County. The district is part of deep red south-central Kentucky. Republican David Meade, the Majority Caucus Chair, is seeking another term. He has been working to overhaul the state adoption system. He is unchallenged for reelection. Safe R.

KY-HD-81…Bevin 49-47, Grimes 57-43, Beshear 53-47, Trump 54-39. This district is located east of Lexington, taking in the city of Richmond and surrounding area. Richmond has seen growth in recent years, thanks to a commercial and residential boom in the eastern Bluegrass. Freshman Republican C. Wesley Morgan lost his primary election to Deanna Frazier, a small business owner and audiologist. Frazier is running on a platform of “Family, Faith, and Future” and seems to have the support of some teachers. Democrats have nominated one of their most impressive candidates of the cycle: Morgan Eaves, an attorney, and member of the Richmond City Commission. Eaves is focused on education issues, which resonate deeply in this district thanks to the presence of Berea College and Eastern Kentucky University. Eaves is also highlighting the problem of jail overcrowding, the need to fund rehabilitation programs, and a living wage. Eaves has raised $66K while Frazier has raised $81K. It was a surprise when Democrats lost this seat in 2016, though Rita Smart, the previous incumbent Democrat, did not run a great campaign. Richmond is the kind of place where Bevin’s positions on education should hurt him and Eaves has the name ID to capitalize on that sentiment. But Frazier is definitely managing to keep this race competitive. Lean D pickup.

KY-HD-82…Bevin 70-26, Knipper 65-35, Westerfield 70-30, Trump 82-15. This district is located in Whitley and Laurel County in South-central Kentucky. It is the first district that we come to that is within the Cumberland Plateau. Whitley County is known for its recreational opportunities in the Daniel Boone National Forest. Incumbent Republican Regina Huff is running for reelection. Huff voted against the pension bill (perhaps as a teacher herself) but voted for charter school legislation. The Democratic candidate is Stefanie Kinglsey, an attorney and small business entrepreneur. Kinglsey supports Medicaid expansion, restoring voting rights to felons, providing more treatment options for those addicted to opioids, and wants to reverse the pension bill. Huff appears to be running a minimal campaign (if that). She has raised $0 while Kingsley has raised $13K. But this is south central Kentucky – Republican for generations. Safe R.

KY-HD-83…Bevin 72-24, Knipper 66-34, Westerfield 73-27, Trump 84-13. This district is located in Cumberland, Clinton, Russell, and part of Pulaski County. This district is also part of deep red south-central Kentucky. Incumbent Republican Jeff Hoover is seeking another term. Hoover has had an extraordinary fall from power in Kentucky politics, after he was implicated in a sexual harassment scandal a year ago. He has clashed with Governor Matt Bevin constantly, most recently when Bevin endorsed an Independent over a Republican in House District 66. Hoover is surprisingly unchallenged for reelection and will presumably try to rebuild some good will among voters. Safe R.

KY-HD-84…Bevin 62-34, Knipper 52-48, Westerfield 55-45, Trump 80-18. We move eastward to District 84, which is in the heart of coal country in the Appalachians. This district takes in Perry County and the famous Harlan County. This district is very poor, as are a lot of the mountain areas in East Kentucky. Politically, this district is dominated by conservative, union-friendly Democrats. Republican incumbent Chris Fugate is running for reelection. Fugate has a mixed voting record. While he voted for the pension bill, he has opposed a bill to repeal the construction of nuclear power plants, opposed charter school legislation, and opposed a bill to curtail smoking. Fugate is also leading the charge to re-establish the Kentucky’s Kinship and Fictive Program, which would provide payments to grandparents who have custody over children (which is a frequent occurrence because the parents might be involved with opioids). Fugate’s Democratic challenger is former teacher and former state Representative Tom Pope. Pope has criticized the pension bill and has received the endorsement of various local unions, which are still powerful in the coal fields. Republicans have tried to link Pope to the national Democratic agenda. Fugate has raised $75K while Pope has raised $19K. It seems unlikely that Democrats can get this seat back. Likely R.

KY-HD-85…Bevin 74-22, Knipper 67-33, Westerfield 73-27, Trump 83-13. This district is located in the Cumberland Plateau and includes eastern Pulaski and western Laurel County. The area is extremely rural and heavily forested. The economy is dominated by outdoor recreation. Incumbent Republican Tommy Turner is seeking reelection. No Democrat filed for the ballot, and his only challenger is a write-in candidate named Mona Hampton-Eldridge. Safe R.

KY-HD-86…Bevin 70-27, Knipper 63-37, Westerfield 68-32, Trump 82-15. This district is located in Knox County and part of Laurel County in east central Kentucky. The area is known for its coal mining and outdoor recreation. Republican incumbent Jim Stewart is seeking reelection. Stewart opposed both the pension bill and the charter school bill, though he has generally voted for all of the big conservative policies. Stewart recently came under controversy for sexual harassment in 2015. Stewart faces retired teacher Deb Payne, who is campaigning on an agenda of supporting addiction treatment, supporting foster care help for noncustodial help and working on bail and prison reform. Payne is also a supporter of union jobs. Both Stewart and Payne have raised $4K. This seat is heavily Republican downballot and Stewart should easily win again. Safe R.

KY-HD-87…Bevin 59-37, Knipper 56-44, Westerfield 54-46, Trump 82-16. This district is located in Bell County and parts of Harlan County in southeastern Kentucky. This is coal country, which means there are a lot of fiscally liberal, socially conservative Democrats. The biggest city, Middlesboro, is built entirely within a crater (the only city to claim this title!). In the late 19^thcentury and early 20^thcentury, Middlesboro was considered the gateway to the “Appalachian backcountry.” People came to Middlesboro to trade and connect with the outside world. Democratic incumbent Rick Nelson is retiring to run for Mayor of Middlesboro. Businessman Adam Bowling is running as the Republican, while Democrats have nominated teacher Dustin Allen. Allen is campaigning on an agenda of protecting public pensions and combatting the opioid epidemic through treatment and education. Bowling’s dad was a well-known state Representative back in the 1990s, so he should have some residual name recognition. Bowling has raised $41K while Allen has raised $0. Rick Nelson barely won this seat in 2016 and it seems like without an incumbent Democrat running, this seat should finally flip. Allen’s only hope is that voters pay attention to groups like the AFL-CIO and the United Auto Workers, which have both endorsed the Democrat. Likely R pickup.

KY-HD-88…Bevin 49-46, Grimes 53-47, Beshear 51-49, Trump 51-42. This district is located east of Lexington, and includes some suburbs, exurbs, and some areas that are still primarily rural. Republican incumbent Robert Benvenunti is retiring. The Republicans nominated Bill Farmer, a former state Representative. Farmer is campaigning on replacing the income tax with sales and service taxes, is against the Bevin pension bill, and is willing to consider legalizing marijuana. He is also highlighting his record of developing relationships across the aisle. Democrats are running Cherlynn Stevenson, a community volunteer and businesswoman. Stevenson is opposed to the Bevin pension bill, supports single-payer, wants to invest in renewable energy, and is for legalizing marijuana and expanded gaming to increase revenue. Stevenson has received endorsements from Adam Edelen and unions and is running a close GOTV operation with Amy McGrath. Stevenson has raised $46K while Farmer has raised $41K. This district is used to electing Republicans and Farmer should have residual name recognition from earlier campaigns. However, this district is in the suburbs of Lexington, which is the heart of the resistance. And Amy McGrath looks likely to come close district-wide, which means she will need to be winning this district. I think the energy is with the Democrats here. Tilt D pickup.

KY-HD-89…Bevin 71-25, Knipper 65-35, Westerfield 69-31, Trump 79-17. This district covers the lower third of Madison County, all of Jackson County, and parts of Laurel County in east-central Kentucky. The district is primarily rural and is home to parts of the Daniel Boone National Forest. Republican incumbent Robert Goforth is seeking reelection to his first full term. Goforth first won a special election in March to replace retiring Republican Marie Rader. Democrats are running Kelly Smith, a librarian. Goforth and Smith both have campaigned on opposing charter schools, the pension bill, and cuts to school family resource and youth service center budgets. Goforth has highlighted his support for substance abuse education programs and his support for school prayer as well. Goforth has raised $59K while Smith has raised $13K. Smith only lost 59-41 in the special election earlier this year, which was held with low turnout. If she can keep Goforth to a 20 point margin ahead, that will be considered a success in this deep red seat. Safe R.

KY-HD-90…Bevin 74-24, Knipper 70-30, Westerfield 74-26, Trump 86-12. This district is located in Leslie, Clay, and part of Laurel County in southeast Kentucky. Like every other district in this region, the main economic drivers are coal and outdoor recreation. This district is incredibly poor and is one of the most Republican seats in Kentucky (even downballot). Republican incumbent Tim Couch lost his primary to Derek Lewis, a small business owner and entrepreneur who primaried Couch from the right. No Democrat ran for this seat, so Lewis will become State Representative in January. Safe R.

KY-HD-91…Bevin 61-35, Knipper 53-47, Westerfield 58-42, Trump 76-21. This district is located in the heart of coal country. It begins in coal-dominated, conservative Democrat Breathitt County and moves west to pick up historically Republican areas of impoverished central Kentucky: Lee, Owsley, and Estill. Like most Appalachian districts, this area is known for its outdoor recreation, its drug epidemic and its political corruption. Republican incumbent Gary Herald is running against former state Representative Cluster Howard, who held this seat from 2015-2017. Herald recently supported a measure to combine counties and school districts to reduce government spending. Herald has supported most big conservative policy agenda items, including charter schools and the pension bill. A third party group called Kentucky Family Values is criticizing Herald for supporting new sales and service taxes that will hurt working Kentuckians. Howard has also been attacked by outside groups who are trying to link him to the national democratic agenda. For Howard to win, he will have to get a large margin out of Breathitt County to offset the other Republican counties. He was able to do that in 2014, but not in 2016. Herald will be helped by a district that still likes President Trump but he is known as a lazy campaigner. He has raised $13K while Howard has raised $21K. Leans R because of district fundamentals.

KY-HD-92…Bevin 55-42, Grimes 52-48, Beshear 51-49, Trump 77-20. This district is located in coal country in eastern Kentucky. The district includes all of Magoffin and Knott County and parts of Pike County. The district is primarily rural and has fallen on hard times with the collapse of the coal industry (coal is now non-existent in Magoffin County). Republican incumbent John Blanton is seeking reelection to a 2^ndterm. Blanton is a fiscally moderate, socially conservative Republican, who opposed the Bevin pension bill and has even introduced a bill to increase the pensions of state workers. Because of that vote, he has received some support from local teachers and unions. Blanton has been active in trying to recruit businesses to come to his economically depressed district, and has also supported legislation to increase funding to school districts that are on the verge of bankruptcy (due to the decline in the coal severance tax). Blanton’s opponent is Ryan Mosley, a lawyer. Mosley is emphasizing his opposition to a new law that would make it harder for coal miners to obtain black lung benefits (a big issue in this district). Mosley has refused to take corporate PAC money and wants to help diversify the economy in his district. Blanton has raised $84K while Mosley has raised $16K. In the 2016 red wave, Blanton had an underwhelming victory against corrupt Democratic incumbent John Short, 52-48. This district is moving to the right, so I think he is likely to win, but it is one to watch. Likely R.

KY-HD-93…Bevin 58-39, Knipper 53-47, Beshear 51-49, Trump 83-15. This district is located in rural impoverished Martin County (where LBJ announced a War on Poverty) and Pike County, the largest county in the Appalachian Mountains. Pike County was one of two sites for the Hatfield-McCoy dispute of the 19^thcentury. Both counties have historically been reliant on coal but Pike County is big enough that it has other industries. Among them is a substantial banking sector. Democrat Chris Harris is seeking a third term. His opponent is Norma Kirk-McCormick, a Republican from Inez, who lost a 2016 bid by less than 3%. Harris is considered to have one of the best constituent services in the state and is considered a future contender for statewide office. He was at the forefront of teacher-led protests this winter against the pension bill. After the Parkland shooting, he even went out on a limb, and said he wanted to look at banning assault weapons, an unpopular position in rural eastern Kentucky. His son, Corbin, fell off an apartment balcony at the University of Kentucky at the start of the school year, and has been in a coma. Harris has spent time dealing with Corbin’s medical care around clock, which means he has been notably absent from the campaign trail. Thankfully, Kirk-McCormick is not a strong candidate. Harris has raised $56K while she has only raised $9K. But it is essentially impossible for a Democrat to win Martin County these days, so Harris has to run up the margins in Pike County to win. Can he do that if he has outsourced all campaign activities to staff? We’ll see. Tilt D.

KY-HD-94…Bevin 56-40, Knipper 51-49, Beshear 50-50, Trump 79-18. This district is located in the heart of coal country, taking in Letcher County and parts of Pike County. Like the other coal seats, this area has historically been pro-union and impoverished. Democratic incumbent Angie Hatton is running for a second term. Republicans failed to find a challenger to her. Safe D.

KY-HD-95…Conway 53-44, Grimes 61-39, Beshear 61-39, Trump 73-24. We now come to the most Democratic district in coal country – the only eastern KY seat that Jack Conway actually won. This seat takes in Floyd County. Its county seat, Prestonsburg, is known for its Mountain Arts Center, The Country Music Highway, and a technologically advanced planetarium. Like the rest of Eastern Kentucky, it has a heritage connected to coal and unions. Republican incumbent Larry Brown is seeking reelection to a second term. Brown unseated former House Speaker Greg Stumbo in the red wave of 2016. Stumbo was universally seen as someone who had lost interest in his district, and spent more time in Lexington. Brown now faces Democratic attorney Ashley Tackett Laferty. Laferty is campaigning with the endorsements of the United Mine Workers and the Kentucky Education Association, which are powerful in this working-class district. Brown voted for the tax cuts bill, though he opposed charter schools, pension reform, and a bill to repeal the ban on nuclear energy. Brown has also opposed a minimum wage increase, which is probably not popular in this poor district. Brown has raised $35K while Laferty has raised $23K. The question is here is whether conservative Democrats are more concerned about opposing Governor Bevin or supporting President Trump. I really do think Democrats would have held this seat with anyone besides Greg Stumbo in 2016, so I’m going to give a slight advantage to Laferty. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see Brown win again. Tilt D.

KY-HD-96…Bevin 55-41, Knipper 52-48, Westerfield 51-49, Trump 76-20. This district is located in Carter and Lawrence County. Coal mining used to be a huge industry here, but Carter is far enough north that it is not as prominent as in other districts. Republican incumbent Jill York is running for reelection. York is fiscally liberal, and has been a big supporter of minimum wage increases and an opponent of right-to-work legislation (which hurts union voters in this district). Several major unions have previously endorsed York, including the AFL-CIO. Since the Republicans took control of the majority, York has opposed the pension bill, the tax bill, prevailing wage repeal, pro-smoking legislation, charter schools, and other key legislation. Democrats have nominated Kathy Hinkle, a political activist in Lawrence County. Hinkle agrees with York on many of the big issues, especially on education. Hinkle is one of the few Democrats not endorsed by the Kentucky Education Association. York has raised $45K while Hinkle has raised $29K. York was the first Republican to win a seat in Eastern Kentucky, and has managed to hold down her seat cycle after cycle. Democrats are having a difficult time distinguishing themselves from York, especially on fiscal issues. Likely R.

KY-HD-97…Bevin 59-37, Knipper 54-46, Westerfield 56-44, Trump 79-18. This district takes in Johnson, Morgan, and Wolfe County, all part of the coal country. Like other coal seats, this area has a fiscally liberal, socially conservative, pro-union history. Incumbent Republican William Scott Wells is retiring after just one term. The Republican nominee is former teacher Bobby McCool. McCool is campaigning against cuts to education, but has little online presence. Democrats have nominated Craig Lindon, a retired state employee. Lindon is focused on expanding infrastructure, high speed internet and reliable cell phone service in Eastern Kentucky. Lindon has vowed to support an increase in the minimum wage and opposes right-to-work. This district has attracted outside Democratic groups, who believe Lindon has a chance to win. Lindon has raised $31K while McCool has raised $30K. McCool has the benefit of geography – he lives in the most populated and most Republican county in this district. Lindon will need large margins out of Morgan and Wolfe if he wants to pull this off. Lean R.

KY-HD-98…Bevin 57-40, Grimes 51-49, Beshear 51-49, Trump 71-25. This district is located in Eastern Kentucky, and includes all of Greenup County and a few precincts in Boyd County. Greenup County is far enough north that it is not part of Eastern Kentucky’s Coal Country. Despite this, the area shares some of the same characteristics as coal country: poverty, a mountain-based topography, heavy union presence (because of steel production in nearby Ashland) and local politics run almost exclusively by the Democratic Party. Republican incumbent Danny Bentley is seeking reelection. Bentley has been a moderate in the State House. He opposed prevailing wage repeal, right-to-work, paycheck protection (a bill to allow workers to not send dues to unions), and a repeal of the ban on nuclear energy. However, he did vote for the tax bill and the pension bill this year and has voted for all pro-life legislation. Bentley faces R.B. McKenzie, a financial advisor. McKenzie is emphasizing his support for the 2^ndAmendment, his opposition to charter schools, and his opposition to the tax bill that shifted the burden to the middle class. McKenzie has the support of a variety of unions and the Kentucky Education Association. Bentley has raised $66K while McKenzie has raised $34K. Democrats won this seat as recently as a March 2016 special election and they think that highlighting issues like education can help them win. But Bentley has certainly prepared well – better than I would have expected since he wasn’t expected to win in 2016. Leans R.

KY-HD-99…Bevin 54-43, Grimes 52-48, Westerfield 52-48, Trump 68-28. This district is located in eastern Kentucky and is a little bit north of the prime coal mining area. It includes Elliott County, one of the most Democratic counties in Kentucky, Rowan County (home of Kim Davis), and conservative Lewis County. The area is known for its outdoor recreation, Morehead State University, country music, and some logging. The area is known for its heavy union support and its poverty. The district’s representative is House Majority Leader Rocky Adkins. Adkins has achieved an almost saint-like status in Eastern Kentucky. He is unchallenged for reelection, which was a serious error by Republicans. Adkins has been able to spend his time traveling around the state helping other Democrats raise money (he is the best fundraiser for Democrats) and spreading his name ID for a possible run for governor. Safe D.

KY-HD-100…Bevin 51-45, Grimes 55-45, Beshear 55-45, Trump 66-30. This district is located in Ashland, Kentucky, one of the largest areas in northeast Kentucky. Historically, Ashland has had a thriving manufacturing center – the 20^thcentury Ashland played host to oil, steel, chemical, and dyes. Today, AK Steel remains a big employer as does King Daughters Medical Center. A new aluminum mill that will be built by Braidy Industries is expected to be opened in 2020, a huge win for the region. Democratic incumbent Kevin Sinnette is retiring to run for a local judicial position. Businesswoman Terri Clark is the Democratic candidate. Clark is emphasizing her opposition to the Republican pension plan and the need to invest in easy river and rail access to attract more businesses to Ashland. Clark has received the support of the KEA and the AFL-CIO, both powerful interests in this area. Republicans have nominated Ashland Police Sgt. Brian Clark. Clark is concerned with restructuring the tax code and working to find solutions to the opioid crisis. Clark says that the recent increase in jobs can help people turn away from opioids. Ashland is another small city that should be ground zero for anti-Bevin sentiment. Terri Clark has raised $38K while Brian Clark has raised $28K. Sinnette barely won his final term in 2016, which shows that this district is moving to the right. Kentucky Family Values, a Democratic superpac, is advertising in this district suggesting Democrats still see a path to victory. And with public education at the forefront this year, I’ll say Democrats narrowly hold on. Tilt D.

Kentucky House of Representatives Election Preview: Part I

GradyDem

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Sunday November 04, 2018 · 11:56 PM PST

2018/11/04 · 23:56

This diary previews all 100 State House districts that are on the ballot on Tuesday in Kentucky. Two years ago, Republicans finally won the State House. They immediately moved on an amibitious agenda, including charter schools, right-to-work, a repeal of the prevailing wage, limits on Planned Parenthood funding, a ban on abortion after the 20^thweek of pregnancy, the abolition of the University of Louisville board of trustees, and bible literacy.

Read on to hear what I think about each race…

KY-HD-1….Bevin 61-36, Knipper 53-47, Westerfield 56-44, Trump 76-21. This district is in the far western part of the state, known as the Jackson Purchase, and is primarily geared towards agriculture. The incumbent Republican is Steven Jack Rudy, a local agribusiness owner. Rudy is chairman of the powerful Appropriations and Revenue Committee and is widely regarded as one of the most anti-union legislators in Kentucky politics. He was a vocal advocate of pension reform and the Republican tax cuts, though he has also led an effort to tax opioid does and increase the cigarette tax. Rudy faces Democrat Desiree Owen, a local businesswoman, who has made opposition to pension reform and support for public sector employees a key component of her campaign. This is rural Kentucky, Trump is popular, and the Democratic brand has been collapsing here for the past decades. Rudy has raised $60K. Owen has raised $13K, which is not enough to overcome the Republican nature of the district and Rudy’s name recognition. Safe R.

KY-HD-2…Bevin 61-36, Knipper 57-43, Westerfield 59-41, Trump 77-20. This district is located in Graves County and is also known for its rural and agricultural feel. The incumbent is three-term Republican Richard Heath, a local businessman. Heath has been a down-the-line conservative in the state legislature, with the exception of a vote to create new regulations for recreational therapists. Heath is being challenged by Democrat Charlotte Goddard, a 3^rdgrade teacher. Goddard is focused on reversing the pension bill, and bringing industrial jobs to the distric,t which recently lost the Continental General Tire Factory. Like HD-1, this district continues to zoom to the right, even though most of the voters here are still registered Democrats. Heath “only” won by 20 points (underperforming Trump by 37 points) in 2016, so Goddard may have a chance if voters are upset about Trump’s tariffs and the state pension plan. But Heath has done well in fundraising, taking in $54K while Goddard has only raised $15K. Safe R.

KY-HD-3…Bevin 53-44, Knipper 51-49, Westerfield 50-50, Trump 59-36. This district is located in Paducah, a small town known for its craft art and the site of a uranium enrichment plant. It used to be a distribution point where farmers from rural Kentucky would come to sell their crops. Incumbent Gerald Watkins, a conservative Democrat, is retiring to run for local office. Democrats are running businesswoman Martha Emmons, who runs a bicycle shop and coaches the local high school debate team. Emmons opposes the Republican pension and tax bill, efforts to cut unemployment insurance programs, wants to bring back prevailing wage, and wants to repeal right-to-work. The Republican is realtor Randy Bridges. Bridges is running as a supporter of the Bevin agenda (both on economic issues and social issues), and has the support of the Kentucky Chamber Commerce. Emmons should win downtown Paducah, which has a substantial non-white population. But the areas surrounding the city tend to be blood red, and without a well-known quantity like Watkins on the ballot, they can easily “come through” for Republicans. Bridges also has name recognition from his run against Watkins in 2014, and has a fundraising advantage: he has raised $88K, while Emmons has raised only $40K. Tossup.

KY-HD-4…Bevin 62-35, Knipper 58-42, Westerfield 62-38, Trump 77-20. This district is located in western Kentucky, and has historically had an economy rooted in both agriculture and industry. The area used to have a substantial iron mining industry and tobacco industry. Republican incumbent Lynn Bechler is seeking reelection. He Is opposed by Livingston lawyer and Democrat Abigail Barnes. The race is breaking down along conventional lines, with Bechler supporting most conservative policies coming from Matt Bevin and Barnes opposing them. Barnes has even said she supports a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, which is generally not seen as popular in rural Kentucky. The two agree that the smoking ban should be a decision. Despite being a three-term incumbent, Bechler only won his primary by 7 points. This wasn’t the only election where he has underperformed. In 2014, he won the general by ten points, despite McConnell winning his district by 32. He and Barnes have raised the same amount of money: $19K. This is rural Kentucky so the fundamentals favor the Republicans. But if voters are upset about pensions, this could be an upset. Likely R.

KY-HD-5…Bevin 55-42, Knipper 52-48, Westerfield 53-47, Trump 67-28. This district is located in Calloway County and Trigg County. The district is anchored by the town of Murray and Murray State University (and various cultural institutions associated with the university). Republican incumbent Kenneth Imes is retiring to run for local office. The Republican candidate is Larry Elkins, the Calloway County Judge Executive, who is well known for paying off much of the county’s debt and increasing transparency in local government. The Democrat is David Ramey, who wants to repeal the pension bill and charter school legislation. Both candidates want to change the service tax, support a local options sales tax, and want to attract more investment to Murray State (which generally loses out on funds to the University of Kentucky). Ramey has attacked Elkins for opposing the expansion of the county library and not standing up to Matt Bevin on education and healthcare. Elkins has also come under fire for using his county office to help his election campaign. This area is more receptive to downballot Democrats than other parts of rural Kentucky (thanks to the university). But Elkins has high name recognition and when Ramey ran for the seat in 2016, he lost by 38 points. Ramey has raised $27K and Elkins has raised $18K. Likely R.

KY-HD-6…Bevin 54-43, Knipper 51-49, Beshear 50-50, Trump 73-23. This district includes Benton County, Lyon County, and one precinct in McCracken County. This district is primarily agricultural and has a strong Democratic heritage. Benton is widely known for its Big Singing Day, which is considered the oldest indigenous musical tradition in the United States. The incumbent is Democrat Will R. Coursey, who is retiring to run for local office. The Democratic candidate is Linda Edwards, a retired educator. The Republican candidate is media businessman Chris Freeland. Both candidates are running on their usual platforms, and know each other, so this race has been fairly civil. Edwards has raised $17K while Freeland has raised $18K. Coursey survived several tough cycles in this seat, but as rural Kentucky zooms to the right, it is going to be difficult for the Democrats to win here. Lean R flip.

KY-HD-7…Bevin 54-43, Grimes 52-48, Beshear 54-46, Trump 70-26. This district encompasses Union County, and parts of Daviess and Henderson County. Daviess includes agricultural areas and exurbs of Ownesboro, while Union County is known for coal mining. The incumbent is Republican Suzanne Miles, the former district director for Congressman Brett Guthrie. Miles has supported much of Governor Bevin’s agenda. She faces retired teacher and Democrat Joy Gray. Gray is campaigning on a similar pro-union, pro-public education platform, but she has also noted that Miles opposed a workers compensation bill, which could hurt coal miners in Union County. Gray ran against Miles and lost 63-37 in 2016. Miles has raised $96K and Gray has raised $25K. Miles certainly has the advantage, but if voters are still upset about the pension bill, this district could be one to watch. Likely R.

KY-HD-8…Bevin 49-48, Grimes 53-47, Westerfield 60-40, Trump 56-40. This district is located in eastern Trigg County and Christian County. It includes the industrial city of Hopkinsville, known for its production of bowling balls. Hopkinsville has a substantial minority population, but it often does not turnout in elections. In March 2016, Democrat Jeff Taylor won a special election in this seat by 18 points (59-41). Thus, it was surprise when Walker Thomas returned in November to defeat Taylor 52-48. Taylor is running on repealing the pension bill, addressing the opioid crisis, and providing sexual harassment training to legislators. Thomas has voted for most of Governor Bevin’s agenda, despite representing a more moderate district. This race will probably come down to turnout. If minorities in Hopkinsville vote, and Taylor can regain some whites who are angry over Bevin’s pension bill, I can see this seat flipping back. Taylor has raised $42K while Thomas has raised $74K. Tossup.

KY-HD-9…Bevin 62-35, Knipper 59-41, Westerfield 62-38, Trump 73-23. Incumbent Republican Myron Dossett has served in the legislature for 12 years. He represents a seat that is dominated by small towns and farms. Dossett faces Baptist minister William Coleman, a Democrat. Coleman lost a local race in 2016. Dossett has become entrenched in this district, and Coleman has only raised $1K. Dossett should win easily. Safe R.

KY-HD-10…Bevin 54-43, Grimes 51-49, Beshear 50-50, Trump 66-29. This district includes Breckinridge County, Hancock County, and parts of Hardin County. This district’s economy is based around manufacturing and agriculture. The incumbent is two-term Democrat Dean Schamore, a relatively low-profile member of the minority. Schamore has opposed the high profile Republican bills passed through the legislature (e.g. right-to-work, prevailing wage) but he has supported some other conservative priorities like the fetal heartbeat bill, a bill to reduce regulations on recreational therapists, and a bill to ease regulations on alcohol use. Schamore’s opponent is Republican Josh Calloway, who has career experience in manufacturing and consulting. Calloway is highlighting his pro-life views as well as his support for less regulations. Schamore managed to win this rural seat by 10 points during the Republican wave year of 2016, so he has some staying power. He has raised $86K while Calloway has raised $25K. Likely D.

KY-HD-11…Conway 50-48, Grimes 57-43, Beshear 59-41, Trump 61-35. This district encompasses the historic Ohio River town of Henderson, Kentucky and surrounding communities. Historically, this district produced a lot of tobacco, but today, the economy is focused around aluminum production, food processing, and automobile parts. The Democrats have historically done well here, thanks to high unionization. First-term incumbent Robby Mills is retiring to run for the State Senate. The Democrats have one of their best legislative candidates here, former Henderson County Judge Rob Wiederstein. Wiederstein is running on a platform of repealing right-to-work and prevailing wage. He is also concerned about companies that get state incentives to create jobs, but never actually follow through. He faces James Buckmaster, a physician, perennial candidate, and former Democrat in the general election. Buckmaster is running as a down-the-line conservative on most issues, and is highlighting his support for further tax cuts. Widerstein has raised $60K and Buckmaster has raised $11K. Wiederstein has previously name recognition from serving as a Judge and has a decent following (for a non-incumbent) on social media. And if any area is going to reject the anti-union legislation coming out of Frankfort, it will be here. Lean D pickup.

KY-HD-12…Bevin 59-38, Knipper 52-48, Westerfield 50-50, Trump 75-21. This district is located in Webster County, McLean County and part of Hopkins and Daviess County. This district encompasses the heart of the western coalfields, an area that has been hit hard (but not as hard as Eastern Kentucky) by declining coal reserves and the natural gas boom. The area also has ties to agriculture. The incumbent representative in Jim Gooch, a Republican, who switched parties in 2015. Gooch has been an active supporter of conservative priorities in the state legislature, and has secured the support of Americans for Prosperity. In the most recent legislative session, Gooch failed to eliminate net metering subsidies for private homeowners who instill solar panels, part of a larger opposition to renewables. Gooch faces Bruce Kunze, a retired educator and former Daviess County Commissioner. Kunze supports term limits for legislators and is advocating for the repeal of the Bevin tax bill and pension bill. Gooch has raised $47K, while Kunze has raised $31K. Gooch faced a strong Democratic opponent in his first election as a Republican, but he won 61-39. This area is rural, and President Trump is still popular because of his support for the coal industry. Likely R.

KY-HD-13…Conway 49-48, Grimes 58-42, Beshear 59-41, Trump 54-39. This district is located in Owensboro. Known as the BBQ Capital of the World, Owensboro was historically a manufacturing town. Today, the city’s economy continues to include manufacturing as well as banking and healthcare. Owensboro has a substantial minority population. Incumbent Republican D.J. Johnson is running for his second term against the man he defeated in 2016: former state Representative Jim Glenn, who held the seat from 2009 to 2017. Money has poured into this seat, in a sign that both parties believe this race is competitive. Glenn has received support from the United Steel Workers and Kentucky Family Values, while Johnson has received support from Kentucky Credit Union League, the Kentucky Realtors PAC, and Americans for Prosperity. The combination of higher #resistance turnout and a general dislike of Matt Bevin’s education policies should make this seat a prime target for the Democrats. The big question is whether Johnson can drive Republicans outside Owensboro proper to the polls. Johnson has raised $124 while Glenn has raised $69K. Tilt D takeover.

KY-HD-14…Bevin 59-38, Knipper 52-48, Westerfield 52-48, Trump 73-22. This district takes in the outer areas of Owensboro, rural eastern Daviess County and rural Ohio County. Ohio County is home to some coal mining. Republican State Representative Matt Castlen is retiring after one term to run for the State Senate. The Republican candidate is Scott Lewis, the superintendent of Ohio County Schools. Lewis is conservative on social issues, but has called himself a big advocate of public education, raising questions about his support for the Bevin pension bill. He has also been endorsed by the Untied Mine Workers of America, a Democratic leaning group. Lewis faces Democrat Elizabeth Belcher, who is a former nurse and medical officer for the city of Owensboro. Belcher wants to reverse the repeal of prevailing wage, and is concerned about the reduction in benefits for public employees and those with black lung. She faces long odds in a district that has zoomed to the right, thanks to the supposed “war on coal.” On the other hand, she should be able to do well in Daviess County (the populated area of the district), while Lewis should have high name recognition and do well in Ohio County. Both candidates have struggled with fundraising, with Belcher raising $12K and Lewis raising $9K. Likely R.

KY-HD-15…Bevin 52-45, Grimes 54-46, Beshear 55-45, Trump 73-24. This district is located in Muhlenberg County and eastern Hopkins County. The area is known for its coal reserves, its tobacco production, and Dyno Mobel (which manufactures explosives). The incumbent Republican is first-term representative Melinda Gibbons Prunty. Prunty has been a reliable conservative vote in the legislature, though she did vote against the repeal of prevailing wage. Prunty faces former state Representative Brent Yonts, who she beat in 2016. Yonts is highlighting Prunty’s vote for a worker compensation bill that he says will make healthcare more expensive for workers with black lung disease. The Democratic Party has filed an ethics complaint against Prunty for using her government email account to send a newsletter. Prunty has raised $99K while Yonts has raised $43K. This area is moving to the right, but Prunty’s win in 2016 was considered a huge upset against a twenty-year incumbent. This could come down to whichever force is bigger: the pro-Trump leanings of the electorate or the anti-Bevin leanings of the electorate. Tossup/Tilt R.

KY-HD-16…Bevin 60-37, Knipper 56-44, Westerfield 64-36, Trump 73-24. This district is located in south-central Kentucky and includes Logan County, Todd County, and several precincts in Warren County. This district is primarily agricultural and includes several towns. Republican incumbent Jason Petrie is seeking a second term. Petrie beat Democratic incumbent Martha Jane King in 2016. He is the only first-term Republican who lucked out and is not running against a Democrat this year. He faces write-in Robert Nelson, who managed to raise around $2K. Safe R.

KY-HD-17…Bevin 63-35, Knipper 59-41, Westerfield 60-40, Trump 68-27. This district covers Butler County and areas west of Bowling Green in Warren County. This area has historically been one of the few places open to electing downballot Republicans in western Kentucky. Incumbent Republican Jim DeCesare is retiring after being implicated in a sexual harassment scandal. Republicans have nominated Bowling Green Businessman Steve Sheldon, who will face businessman and 2006 nominee Malcom Cherry. Sheldon has raised $68K while Cherry has raised $14K. This area is generally not receptive to downballot Democrats and I don’t expect 2018 to change that. Safe R.

KY-HD-18…Bevin 62-34, Knipper 58-42, Westerfield 59-41, Trump 74-22. This district is located in Grayson and parts of Hardin County. The area is primarily agricultural and is represented by military veteran and Republican Tim Moore. Moore is being challenged by Western Kentucky University Professor Donnie Lovell. Beyond the pension bill, both candidates are talking about workforce participation and the opioid epidemic. Moore has raised $21K while Lovell has raised $18K. It is hard to see this area ousting an uncontroversial Republican incumbent. Safe R.

KY-HD-19…Bevin 58-39, Knipper 56-44, Westerfield 56-44, Trump 68-28. This district encompasses Edmonson County and areas east and north of Bowling Green in Warren County. Incumbent Michael Meredith, a Republican, is seeking another term. Last December, Meredith became embroiled in a sexual harassment scandal (the same one as DeCesare and former Speaker Hoover). Meredith lost his position as Chair of the Local Government Committee but decided to run for reelection anyway. He faces Democrat William Fishback, a retired Warren County Sheriff’s Deputy. Fishback is a self-described “conservative Democrat” who is focused on improving the business climate of the region. Meredith has underperformed in prior elections in Warren County (even against corrupt Democrat John Wayne Smith) but he should be saved by Edmonson County, which is a deep red county, even at the local level. Meredith has raised $53K while Fishback has only raised $3K, showing that he is not serious about increasing his name recognition in Edmondson. Safe R.

KY-HD-20…Conway 50-47, Grimes 56-44, Beshear 55-45, Clinton 47-46. This district is centered on Bowling Green, known for Western Kentucky University, its Green Assembly plant (that manufactures Chevrolet Cars), and its historic downtown area. The area is known for its high income and low cost of doing business, and also has a thriving industrial and healthcare sector. Jody Richards, a Democrat and former Speaker of the House, has represented Bowling Green since 1976 and has finally decided to retire. The Democrats have nominated Patti Minter, a history professor. Minter is unusually liberal for the district, and has been active in the Bowling Green Fairness Movement (a pro-LGBT campaign). Republicans are running Ben Lawson, a local businessman running on a platform of transparency and fiscal conservatism. Richard has held down this seat with ease for the last 42 years, but it looks like the race is competitive this year. Minter has raised $57K while Lawson has raised $50K. The Kentucky Republican Party is spending money on this race, suggesting they think it is competitive. They have attacked Minter for spending public money on travel outside the U.S and for supporting tuition hikes at WKU. The fundamentals suggest that Democrats should hold this, but can Lawson claim the independent mantle that was so successful for Richards? Perhaps he can, as Lawson has argued he would have voted against the Bevin pension bill, despite general support for moving away from a defined pension plan. More importantly, can low turnout African Americans show up to vote for Minter, despite no top of the ticket race? Lean D.

KY-HD-21…Bevin 61-36, Knipper 58-42, Westerfield 59-41, Trump 78-20. This district starts along the Tennessee-Kentucky border in Monroe County and then moves north through Metcalfe, Hart, and parts of Hardin County. The area is primarily agricultural and is heavily Republican up and downballot. Incumbent Republican Bart Rowland is seeking another term and has been a staunch conservative in the legislature. He faces Jarrett Cox, a student at the Elizabethtown Community and Technical College, who wants to reverse right-to-work and is concerned about Governor Bevin’s proposed cuts to transportation. Rowland should get another term. Safe R.

KY-HD-22….Bevin 64-33, Knipper 60-40, Westerfield 62-38, Trump 74-22. This district covers two agricultural counties along the Kentucky-Tennessee border: Simpson and Allen County. Simpson County is a county dominated by conservative Democrats, while Allen County is dark red up and down the ballot. Incumbent Democrat and Minority Whip Wilson Stone is running for another term. Stone has gotten exceptionally lucky the last few cycles and has been unchallenged, as the area has zoomed to the right, and local Democrats have lost their reelections by double digits. This year, he faces retired state trooper and Republican Brian Gann. Stone attracted negative press last month when Republicans alleged he had violated ethics and campaign finance laws when he used official state resources for his campaign. Stone also took time off from the campaign earlier this month, when he discovered that he had a brain tumor. Gann is using his background as a trooper to focus on drug abuse and pubiic safety while Stone is using his background as a school board member to focus on reversing Bevin’s education policies. Stone has raised $52K while Gann has raised $10K. Martha Jane King, the incumbent just to the west of Stone, lost by 30 points in 2016. But Stone may have lucked out by running in a year where voters are angry with Matt Bevin. He also has the benefit of geography: he lives in Allen County, so he could hold down Gann’s margins in what is normally the Republican base. Tossup-Tilt R.

KY-HD-23…Bevin 65-35, Knipper 52-48, Westerfield 54-46, Trump 73-23. This district is centered on Barren County in the south central part of the state. Barren County has been named one of the top rural places to live in the country. Glasgow, the county seat, plays host to the Scottish Highland Games every year. Incumbent Republican Steve Riley is seeking a second term. Riley’s challenger is LaToya Drake, a nutrition and food educator. Riley has highlighted his support for telemedicine and a bill streamlining the adoption process for foster children while Drake has criticized Riley for increasing the sales tax on a variety of products as well as supporting charter schools. Riley has raised $29K, while Drake has raised $12K. This district is in rural Kentucky, and shows no signs of returning to the Democrats. Likely R.

KY-HD-24…Bevin 56-41, Grimes 51-49, Westerfield 52-48, Trump 72-24. This district is located in central Kentucky and includes Marion, Larue and Green Counties. Marion County is known for its bourbon whiskey, its Civil War landmarks and bluegrass music and leans Democrat at the local level (thanks to Catholic Democrats). Larue County is primarily rural and known for being the birthplace of Abraham Lincoln. Green County is also rural and is known for its recreation. Green and Larue lean Republican on the local level. Incumbent Republican Brandon Reed is running for his second term against the man he defeated in 2016, former state Representative Terry Mills. Outside groups have been spending significantly in this race, with flyers warning that Mills has voted to suspend the death penalty, is anti-gun, and voted for bills allowing Muslim refugees to enroll in high school with Kentucky children. Mills has criticized Reed for backing charter schools and for his support for the pension bill. Mills has raised $41K while Reed has raised $89K. When he was the incumbent, Mills was reliant on getting a huge margin out of Marion County (>80%) to offset huge losses in Larue and Green Counties, which are extremely Republican. Even if Marion backs Mills, Reed’s incumbency should mean that he can cut into the margins in Marion, which handedly winning Larue and Green. Likely R.

KY-HD-25…Bevin 58-38, Knipper 52-48, Westerfield 53-47, Trump 65-30. This district takes in the southern third of Hardin County. The area includes rural agricultural areas, and town of Elizabethtown. Elizabethtown has a substantial commercial and manufacturing sector and continues to be a hotbed of growth. Sophomore Republican Jim Duplessis is seeking reelection and faces retired teacher and Democrat Tom Williamson. Duplessis has focused on increasing penalties for opioid theft, as well as financial literacy. Williamson is advocating for the repeal of right-to-work, a return to the prevailing wage, and an end to the Bevin pension reform passed earlier this year. Duplessis has raised $54K while Williamson has raised $19K. Duplessis quickly became entrenched, winning his 2016 race by 45 points. This area is taking on a more exurban character as the Louisville Metropolitan area moves south. But Duplessis is well regarded for his community work, and most of the voters coming into this district are replacing rural Blue Dog Democrats. Duplessis should remain in a strong position moving forward. Safe R.

KY-HD-26…Bevin 58-38, Knipper 54-46, Weasterfield 54-46, Trump 71-25. This district is located in Hardin County and Bullitt County, just south of Louisville. This district is economically dominated by Fort Knox in Hardin County and the exurbs of Louisville in Bullitt County. Some of the rural areas include agriculture, but those farms are disappearing because of urban sprawl. This area has a high quality of life compared to other places in Kentucky and has an influential and active Republican Party. Incumbent Republican Russell Webber faces a write-in candidate, Scott Hrebick. Safe R.

KY-HD-27…Bevin 50-45, Grimes 54-46, Beshear 54-46, Trump 65-31. This district encompasses Meade County and parts of Hardin County. Meade County is known for its recreation opportunities along the Ohio River, and the historic downtown of Brandenburg. The area is connected economically with the Fort Knox area. Incumbent Democrat Jeff Greer is running for reelection. Greer is known as a fiscal liberal and a social conservative, especially on abortion and gun rights. In the state legislature, Greer opposed Bevin’s tax bill and pension bill, but he has backed some major conservative priorities, like the deregulation of telephone service in rural areas. Greer faces UPS employee Nancy Tate, who is concerned with destigmatizing mental health, substance abuse disorder, and support for military, veterans, and law enforcement. Greer’s affable nature should get him reelected once again. Even in the 2016 wave, he managed to win by a surprisingly strong eight points. He has raised $88K compared to Tate’s $65K. Likely D.

KY-HD-28…Conway 51-45, Grimes 57-43, Beshear 57-43, Trump 58-38. This district is located in the southern tip of Jefferson County and includes various suburban and exurban neighborhoods. The population tends to be white working class, the kind of people who moved to Trump in 2016. Incumbent Democrat Charles Miller had a relatively close call in 2016, winning by just six points. But he is unchallenged this time around. Safe D.

KY-HD-29…Bevin 53-44, Grimes 50-50, Beshear 50-50, Trump 57-38. This district is located in southern Jefferson County, and includes the Fern Creek area and some areas that are still rural. The expansion of Louisville (suburban growth) has made this district one of the fastest growing areas in the state, and one that leans Republican, even downballot. The representative is Kevin Bratcher, who has represented this seat since 1997. Bratcher has been a big supporter of Governor Bevin, and helped round up votes for the controversial pension bill. This has earned him the support of Americans for Prosperity. He was also the lead sponsor of an anti-gang bill and a “Blue Lives Matter” bill. Bratcher faces Ronel Brown, a firefighter and teacher. Brown has centered his campaign around opposing charter schools, raising the minimum wage, repealing right-to-work and returning to the prevailing wage. Brown has criticized Bratcher for his support of a bill to decrease citywide busing, an issue that has been contentious in Louisville for decades. Bratcher has criticized Brown for his ties to anti-gun groups and Planned Parenthood. Bratcher struggled in the last midterm, winning by just 6 points in 2014, before being unchallenged in 2016. This year, he has raised $55K while Brown has raised $47K. There has been enormous backlash to Bevin among the Jefferson County Public Schools in particular, and the Kentucky Education Association would love to see Bratcher lose. But the district is fundamentally Republican and Bratcher has high Name ID. Tilt R.

KY-HD-30…Conway 70-26, Grimes 76-24, Beshear 76-24, Clinton 70-26. This district is located in urban Louisville and contains the neighborhoods of Watterson Park, West Buechel, and Poplar Hills. The representative here is Democrat Tom Burch. Burch has served in the State House since 1978. Burch’s opponent is Christina O’Connor, an accounting manager at a commercial construction and management company. Burch will turn 88 next year, and with the retirement of Jody Richards, will become the longest serving member of the state legislature. He faces Christina O’Connor, an accounting manager at a commercial construction company. The district is deep blue – Safe D.

KY-HD-31…Conway 56-41, Grimes 61-39, Beshear 62-38, Clinton 51-43. This district is located east of downtown and covers Louisville, Jeffersontown, Houston Acres, and parts of St. Regis Park and St. Matthews. The district is mainly middle class and residential. Incumbent Democrat Steve Riggs is retiring, Democrats have nominated Josie Raymond, a student success coach at the University of Louisville. Raymond is running as a progressive, with an emphasis on increasing the state’s minimum wage, expanding early voting, and expanding Medicaid. Raymond faces Republican Leigh Jones, who is a nurse. Her campaign has been close to nonexistent as she has spent $0. Safe D.

KY-HD-32…Conway 49-48, Grimes 54-46, Beshear 55-45, Clinton 47-47. This district is located east of Louisville and includes middle class and wealthy areas of the city. Incumbent Republican Phil Moffett is seeking a third term, and is the only Republican sitting in a seat that Hillary Clinton won. Moffett is known as one of the most conservative members of the State House, especially on economic issues. He is one of the leading advocates of ending the income tax but has opposed Bevin’s pension bill and his tax reform bill (from the “libertarian right). Moffett faces Democrat Tina Bojanowski, a special-education teacher, who has secured the support of liberal outside groups. Bojanowski wants to expand casino gambling, introduce medical marijuana, and repeal the pension bill and charter schools bill. Democrats have attacked Moffett for tweets supporting a white supremacist. Bojanowski has raised $76K while Moffett has struggled with fundraising, only raising $35K. This district is the closest thing you can get in Kentucky to the wealthy suburban seat that has been turned off by Republicans and is embracing fiscally moderate socially liberal Democrats this cycle. Bojanowski is a good recruit and if Democrats want to make gains on Tuesday, it starts here. Tilt D takeover.

KY-HD-33…Bevin 52-45, Grimes 51-49, Beshear 51-49, Trump 50-44. This district is located in the northern areas of Louisville, Kentucky, and also includes suburban areas of Oldham County. This area tends to be upper income and is home to a sizable percentage of Eastern European immigrants. The suburban areas of Oldham County have some of the most educated people in Kentucky. The Republican is Jason Michael Nemes, whose dad is Bevin’s Deputy Labor Secretary. Nemes is in a rematch with Democrat Rob Walker, who lost by 12 points in 2016. Nemes is focusing on local issues, mainly his effort to prevent the merging of the Anchorage School System with Jefferson County Public Schools. Nemes has received the endorsements of two liberal groups, including the Fairness Campaign (a pro-LGBT group) and the Jefferson County Teachers Association (despite voting for the pension bill). Walker has focused on repealing right-to-work, the charter school bill, and the pension bill. Like HD-32, this district is upper-income, full of professionals and socially moderate voters. Nemes is a good fundraiser and has raised $93K while Walker has only raised $44K. If the Bevin backlash occurs, it could hit here hard. Tossup.

KY-HD-34…Conway 69-28, Grimes 73-27, Beshear 73-27, Clinton 65-28. This district is located in the Highlands area of Kentucky. The area is known for its slogan “Keep Louisville weird,” its nightclubs, and its restaurants. The area continues to go through gentrification, which has brought many young liberal professionals into the district. If there is one area in Kentucky with bold progressives, then this is it. The representative is Democrat Mary Lou Marzian, who has served since 1995. Marzian is one of the few bold progressives in the state legislature, particularly on women’s health and unions. She faces Robert Douglas, an assistant starter, who is advocating for medical marijuana and casino gambling. Douglas has raised no money for his campaign. Marzian should easily win. Safe D.

KY-HD-35…Conway 63-33, Grimes 68-32, Beshear 68-32, Clinton 54-40. This district is located in urban Louisville, south of downtown. The district contains working class neighborhoods and the airport. Incumbent Democrat Jim Wayne is retiring, after spending 28 years in the state legislature. Democrats have nominated Lisa Wilner, the Jefferson County Board of Education Vice Chair while Republicans have nominated retired teacher Donna Lawlor. Both candidates come from an education background, but Lawlor has aligned herself with Bevin, while Wilner has aligned herself with the Kentucky Education Association. Wilner was praised for making Jefferson County Public Schools a safe haven for immigrants, advocating for restorative justice in schools, and lobbying for transgender inclusion. Wilner has raised $58K, while Lawlor has raised no money, and this district maintains a very Democratic DNA. Safe D.

KY-HD-36…Bevin 60-38, Knipper 56-44, Westerfield 57-43, Trump 59-36. This district is located in the dark red suburbs of east Louisville – Eastwood, Fisherville, and Lake Forest. The district also includes some areas in wealthy Oldham County, near Pewee Valley. The incumbent Republican is Jerry Miller. Miller has focused on reducing traffic is this rapidly growing area, reducing regulations, increasing transparency in government, and increasing funding for students with dyslexia. Miller faces businessman and Democrat Maurice Sweeney. Sweeney has criticized Miller for his support of a bill that toughens penalties for being in a gang, arguing that the legislation was too vague. Sweeney is also concerned with ending gerrymandering, introducing casino gambling for revenue, and supporting unions. Miller has raised $59K while Sweeney has raised $11K. In another decade, this district could trend blue, as Democrats arrive here from inner-city Louisville. But for now, Miller should be fine. Safe R.

KY-HD-37…Conway 54-43, Grimes 60-40, Beshear 60-40, Trump 50-45. This district is located directly west of the Louisville airport, and includes industrial white-working class areas and areas near Churchill Downs. Incumbent Democrat Jeff Donohue is seeking reelection, as a pro-union, pro-gun Democrat. Donohue is focusing on local issues, particularly the funds he has secured for roads and drainage systems, as well as the Jefferson County Schools South Park. Donohue has also advocated for la living wage, a bill that would alter the selection process for principals in certain school districts and legislation that would change work schedules for emergency responders. He faces army veteran Katharine Sweeton-Windsor, who has run a non-existent campaign. It was somewhat of a surprise when Trump won this district in 2016 and Donohue had a relatively close call, winning by just four points. But the tables have turned, and Democratic enthusiasm should be higher in this district in 2018. Safe D.

KY-HD-38…Conway 56-40, Grimes 61-39, Beshear 62-38, Clinton 49-46. This district is located just west of District 37 and stretches from the urban business center south to suburban areas near the Bullitt County line. Democrat McKenzie Cantrell is running for her second term. Cantrell is one of the more liberal members of the Democratic caucus. She is highlighting her efforts to give benefits to spouses and children of fallen officers, keep control of Jefferson County Public Schools at the local level, and make it easier to become adoptive parents. Her Republican opponent is Karl Licht, an actor and healthcare analyst. Licht’s campaign has been nonexistent. After barely squeaking by against longtime institution Denny Butler in 2016, Cantrell should easily win this time around. Safe D.

KY-HD-39…Bevin 57-38, Knipper 51-49, Westerfield 55-45, Trump 64-30. This district encompasses the eastern half of Jessamine County. For years, wine, agriculture and horse rearing were key themes in Jessamine County. As the suburbs of Lexington have crept south, this area has taken on a more exurban character, with new retail. As the district has become more suburban, the area has also taken on a more Republican character. The area is Safe R up-ballot, and in 2014, the county elected a Republican Judge Executive. But one thing has not changed – this district still sends a Democrat to the State House. And that Democrat is Russ Meyer, who is seeking a third term. Meyer’s record was very liberal in his 1^stterm in office, but he has moderated with the new Republican majority. While opposing most of the big conservative priorities, he has supported less contentious ones: reducing regulations on barbers and cosmetologists, allowing students to bring religious literature to class, and increasing the use of nuclear energy. Despite being one of Governor Bevin’s least favorite Democrats, no Republican managed to file here. Meyer can now help turnout the vote for Amy McGrath and think about running statewide (he will be formidable) in 2019. Safe D.

KY-HD-40…Conway 69-28, Grimes 74-26, Beshear 75-25, Clinton 64-31. This district is located in the working class areas of west and southwest Louisville. Incumbent Democrat Dennis Horlander lost in the primary to immigration lawyer Nima Kulkarni. Kulkarni was considered more liberal than Horlander, and is likely to be an advocate of public sector unions in the legislature. She faces unknown Republican Josh Neubert in the general, and should easily win in this safely blue seat. Safe D.

KY-HD-41…Conway 75-22, Grimes 79-21, Beshear 79-21, Clinton 75-19. his district is majority-minority and stretches from Louisville’s African-American west-end through gentrifying neighborhoods with younger liberal voters and eastward to Republican areas of Mockingbird Valley and St. Matthews. Democrat Attica Scott is seeking her second term in this seat. Scott is one of the most progressive members of the state legislature, and has criticized comments from Republicans that she views are racist, sexist, and homophobic. She is considering running for governor in 2019, and says she might be able to relate to Kentuckians since she grew up in poverty herself. But it seems unlikely she can expand her name ID to win outside minority areas of metro Louisville. There is no Republican on the ballot. Safe D.

KY-HD-42…Conway 85-11, Grimes 90-10, Beshear 90-10, Clinton 84-11. This district stretches from West End, a poor minority area of Louisville, through areas directly east of downtown. Democrat Reginald Meeks is seeking his tenth term in the State House. Meeks has been one of the few vocal advocates of gun control in the state legislature, and has also supported a more equitable tax system. He faces businesswoman Judy Stallard, who is highlighting the lack of transparency around pensions in state government. Stallard has actually almost outraised Meeks, but will have no hope of winning in this safely blue seat. Safe D.

KY-HD-43…Conway 72-25, Grimes 77-23, Beshear 78-22, Clinton 74-22. This district begins in Louisville’s African American West End and goes east along the Ohio River to take in the areas of downtown, areas around KFC Stadium, and some white (conservative) areas east of downtown. Incumbent Democrat Darryl Owens is set to retire after 40 years of public service in January. Policy analyst Charles Booker is running for the Democrats, and faces Republican Everett Corley in the general election. Corley has been disowned by the state party for various racist remarks. Booker’s campaign is centered around criminal justice reform, a living wage, civil rights legislation, and medical marijuana. He should easily win the general. Safe D.

KY-HD-44….Conway 65-32, Grimes 70-30, Beshear 70-30, Clinton 55-41. This district is located in Shively, a suburb of Louisville, and blue collar, working-class areas of Louisville. Shively is known for its historical segregation, its prostitution, and its ties to the bourbon industry. Incumbent Democrat Joni Jenkins is running for reelection. Jenkins has led efforts to reform the adoption system in the state, and is also focused on reforming gun laws and addressing the state’s opioid epidemic. She faces Republican Margaret Adkins, a nurse. Jenkins should easily win reelection, though it is interesting that in this Safe D working class seat, Clinton was held to just a 14-point victory in 2016.

KY-HD-45…Bevin 49-46, Grimes 53-47, Westerfield 50-50, Trump 52-41. This district is located in Southwest Lexington. The area is home to mainly suburban subdivisions. The representative is Republican Stan Lee. Lee is extremely conservative, particularly on social issues like gay marriage and school prayer. Lee’s track record as a state legislator has been poor, as he did not get one bill passed through the state legislature between 2004 and 2017. Last year, he was the lead author of a bill to protect landlords from legal liability if a renter’s dog were to bite someone. Lee faces attorney and Democrat Josh Hicks in the general election. Hicks has centered his campaign around campaign finance reform, opposition to the Bevin pension bill, and the need to address the opioid epidemic. Hicks has been endorsed by the Lexington Herald Leader. Lee has raised $63K while Hicks has raised $27K. Lee also has experience defeating Democrats, winning by 20% against a competitive challenger in 2016. But this district is suburban in nature, Lee doesn’t have a great track record, and if teacher backlash to Bevin hits anywhere, it will be here. Tossup.

KY-HD-46…Conway 57-40, Grimes 62-38, Beshear 62-38, Clinton 50-45. This district is located in the southern area of Louisville and is home to the suburban sprawl that dominates southern Jefferson County. Incumbent Democrat Alan Gentry is seeking a second term. Gentry has been a vocal supporter of the Kentucky Education Association and public sector unions. He also has highlighted his vote against a bill that would reduce workers compensation benefits, something that is personal for him (he lost an arm in an accident). Gentry faces Republican James Stansbury, the head of the Jefferson County Republican Party. Stansbury wants to engage in further tax reform and has suggested eliminating the income tax. Gentry has raised $57K while Stansbury has only raised $9K. Gentry won in a red year (2016) by 10 points, and he should be able to win again in a much more favorable environment. Safe D.

KY-HD-47…Bevin 52-44, Grimes 53-47, Beshear 52-48, Trump 70-25. We move out of Louisville towards Northern Kentucky. This district encompasses Henry, Trimble, Carroll and Gallatin County along the Ohio River. The area is known for its manufacturing (some that is environmentally-friendly!) and its tobacco markets. Incumbent Democrat Rick Rand is seeking reelection. Rand was the former chair of the Appropriations and Revenue Committee, and is focusing his campaign on the money he has brought back to the district to fund infrastructure and institutions like the Community & Technical College in Carrollton. Rand also wants to continue to promote the Agriculture Development Fund to help farmers in the area. Rand faces real estate broker and Republican Mark Gilkison. Gilkison is campaigning on term limits, a constitutional convention, gun rights, pro-life views, and lower taxes. Rand has raised $66K while Gilkison has raised $13K. Rand was luckily unchallenged during the Republican wave of 2016, so we don’t have a good understanding of how strong his support is. But he almost certainly has higher name ID than Gilkison and his track record of delivering for constituents should put him over the top. Likely D.

KY-HD-48…Bevin 49-48, Grimes 52-48, Beshear 53-47, Trump 48-46. This district is located in some of the wealthiest and most educated areas of the Louisville Metro area. The wealth in this area dates back to the 19^thcentury, when wealthy Louisvillians would come here for the summer. Incumbent Republican Ken Fleming is seeking a second term. Fleming faces attorney and part-time teacher Maria Sorolis, in a rematch of the 2016 contest. Sorolis opposes charter schools, wants to increase transparency in government, and address traffic and congestion. Fleming has emphasized his vote for tax cuts and proposed legislation to push tax incentives for businesses to economically depressed rural counties, and has said he supports tort reform and finding a solution to public school safety. Fleming beat Sorolis by 14 points in 2016, and he probably has the upper hand again this time. He has raised $106K, while Sorolis has raised $21K. But if the suburbs are moving to the left, this seat could fall. Lean R.

KY-HD-49…Bevin 57-39, Knipper 54-46, Westerfield 54-46, Trump 72-23. This district is located just outside Jefferson County in rapidly exurbanizing-Bullitt County. Bullitt has been a haven for new businesses in recent years and has become a major distribution center. The biggest employer is Zappos, an online shoe and clothing shop. Despite suburbanization and the growth of new businesses, the district remains poor, with low education rates like much of rural Kentucky. Democrat Linda Belcher won this seat in a special election earlier this year. Belcher has been aggressive in attacking Governor Bevin and has said she wants to reverse his pension bill and tax bill. Belcher faces local car dealer Thomas Huff. Huff is emphasizing his business experience and wants to focus on the infrastructure and the opioid crisis. In a sign that Republicans smell blood here, a national group, Kentuckians for Strong Leadership, has run an ad criticizing Belcher for not solving the pension crisis when she was previously in the legislature. Belcher won the special by 50 points, but that was against an extremely flawed Republican opponent. The fact that a national group is involved here means this race could flip. Tossup.

KY-HD-50…Bevin 48-48, Grimes 56-44, Beshear 54-46, Trump 65-31. This district is located in Nelson County, Kentucky. The county seat is Bardstown, which is known for its Catholic heritage, its historic district, its distilleries, and its agricultural industry. This race is a rematch of 2016: Republican incumbent Chad McCoy is running against Democrat James DeWeese, a business agent for a local union. The 2016 campaign focused on issues like abortion, religion, and environmental problems, where both candidates had similar positions. But this time around, DeWeese is focusing on his opposition to the tax bill and the pension bill, while McCoy is arguing that both bills have spurred economic growth. DeWeese also wants to expand programs that allow students to go to trade schools. This district has a lot of conservative Democrats, and it will be interesting to see which is more important to them: opposing Bevin or supporting Trump. McCoy has raised $140K and DeWeese has raised $59K. McCoy won by 28 points in 2016. He should win again, but probably not by that margin. Lean R.

KY-HD-51…Bevin 63-34, Knipper 57-43, Westerfield 61-39, Trump 77-20. This district is located in South Central Kentucky and includes Taylor and Adair County. Historically, textiles, wood milling, and oil dominated the economy of this district. Today, the area is known for its healthcare, education, and tourism. Republican Bam Carney is running for reelection and faces a write-in candidate. Safe R.

KY-HD-52…Bevin 66-31, Knipper 59-41, Westerfield 66-34, Trump 82-15. This district is located in rural central Kentucky, and includes Wayne, McReary and part of Pulaski County. The area is known for its houseboat manufacturing and recreational and tourist traffic. Republican Ken Upchurch is seeking reelection. Upchurch is emphasizing the fact that he is chair of the Transportation Committee, which has allowed him to secure road funding for the district. Democrats usually let Upchurch go unchallenged in this deep red area of Kentucky, but this year, they have a candidate, teacher Dean Sumpter. Sumpter is running on reversing the pension bill and right-to-work. Upchurch has raised $50K while Sumpter has raised $12K. This district is too red to support a Democrat. Safe R.

KY-HD-53…Bevin 59-36, Knipper 55-45, Westerfield 58-42, Trump 74-22. This district is located between Lexington and Louisville, in Anderson, Spencer and Bullitt Counties. In the last few years, the area has seen rapid exurban growth from the expansion of both cities. The area also retains some of its agricultural and horse farm heritage. Republican incumbent James Tipton is running for another term. Tipton is focused on easing traffic congestion, and increasing drug addiction education programs. Tipton has the support of the Kentucky Chamber of Commerce. He faces Dustin Burley, a childcare worker. Burley is campaigning on paid family leave, addiction education, a reversal of the Bevin pension bill, a fairness ordinance, and expansion of rural broadband. Tipton has raised $28K while Burley has raised just $1K. Tipton should easily win. Safe R.

KY-HD-54…Bevin 63-33, Knipper 55-45, Westerfield 60-40, Trump 70-26. This district is located in Central Kentucky, and takes in all of Boyle and Casey County. The biggest city in this district is Danville, considered the “Birthplace of Bluegrass.” Danville is home to Centre College, a manufacturing sector, and is a manufacturing and service center for Central Kentucky. Casey County is primarily rural and is known for its metalworking industry, its Amish community and its topographical features – “The Knobs.” Republican incumbent Daniel Elliott first won this seat in a special election in March 2016. Elliott has highlighted the funding he secured for Boyle County Middle School, as well as legislation to overhaul the adoption system and increase the number of mental health professionals in the community. He faces write-in candidate Lydia Coffey in the general election. Coffey is campaigning against the pension bill and highlighting the need for more drug addiction treatment facilities. Coffey lives in the more Republican Casey County, which could help her avoid getting blown out. She has also outraised Elliott $24K to $13K. But it is hard to see a write-in winning an election. Safe R.

KY-HD-55…Bevin 62-34, Knipper 57-43, Westerfield 60-40, Trump 71-23. This district is located in Central Kentucky and contains Washington County, Mercer County, and rural areas of Jessamine County. This district is primarily agricultural and sits on the southern edge of the Bluegrass. Harrodsburg, in Mercer County, was the first permanent settlement west of the Allegheny Mountains and is home to outdoor recreation opportunities and the state’s oldest family-operated country inn (which has won numerous awards!). Republican incumbent Kim King is seeking reelection. King’s campaign slogan is that she is data-driven, not drama-driven. She has been a down the line conservative in the state legislature, though she has opposed telephone deregulation. King’s challenger is retired schoolteacher and Democrat Cathy Carter. Carter seems to be running on a single issue: support for public education and by default, opposition to the Bevin pension bill. King has raised $46K while Carter has raised $18K. Unless something strange happens, King should win. Safe R.

KY-HD-56…Conway 50-44, Grimes 58-42, Beshear 54-46, Trump 53-41. This district is located in Woodford County, Franklin County, and includes a sliver of Fayette County (Lexington). Woodford County is known for its bluegrass, its horse farms, and its bourbon. Development bans have allowed Woodford County to maintain its rural nature, while being extremely close to Lexington. The Lexington sliver is designed to add more Democratic voters to the district. The Franklin County portion of this district includes a lot of state employees living in eastern Frankfort. Incumbent Democrat James Kay is retiring to run for local office. The Democrats have nominated Joe Graviss, a McDonald’s franchisee. Graviss wants to reduce corporate tax loopholes to help fund pensions, expand sports betting, legalize medical marijuana, and reverse the Bevin tax bill. Graviss faces Republican Dan Fister, who ran for this seat against Kay in 2016. Fister wants to increase government transparency, broaden the tax base to fund pensions, opposes sports betting and legalizing marijuana, and is concerned that Woodford County is becoming a satellite (i.e. not self-sufficient) of Lexington and Fayette County. Graviss has raised $72K while Fister has raised $17K. Kay held down this seat comfortably for several terms, winning by 20% in 2014 and 2016. Fister may have residual name recognition from his 2016 run, but even in rural Woodford County, voters are still very much open to Democrats. Likely D.

KY-HD-57…Conway 59-34, Grimes 67-33, Beshear 63-37, Trump 49-45. This district is centered on the state capitol of Frankfort. Today, Frankfort is home to many state workers and government agencies. Incumbent Democrat Derrick Graham is seeking another term. Graham is highlighting his constituent services, his opposition to the Bevin pension bill, and his support for tax modernization. Republicans are running Calen Studler, a real estate agent. Studler wants to add more certification programs at the high school level, decrease tax-exempt properties in Frankfort so the school district can capitalize on property taxes, and enact pro-life legislation. This is the capital and was the hotbed of education protests against Bevin earlier this year. With the exception of the presidential race, Democrats still easily win this district. Safe D.

KY-HD-58…Bevin 57-39, Knipper 53-47, Westerfield 54-46, Trump 64-30. This district is located just east of Louisville, and encompasses all of Shelby County. Historically, Shelby County has been primarily agricultural, growing crops like tobacco, hemp, and wheat. Following World War II, this area started to industrialize. The growth of Louisville has started to encroach upon the western areas of the county. The area is also known as the Saddlebred Capital of the World for its horse farms. Incumbent Republican Rob Rothenburger is seeking reelection. There doesn’t seem to be a lot of information available on Rothenburger. He faces Democrat Bobby Lacer, an insurance agent and adjunct professor. Lacer is criticizing Rothenburger for his support for right-to-work, the Bevin pension bill, and the repeal of the prevailing wage. Rothenburger has raised $14K while Lacer has raised only $3K. Rothenburger has high name ID from his career as county judge executive in Shelby County, where he was popular. He should win reelection. Safe R.

KY-HD-59…Bevin 61-35, Knipper 59-41, Westerfield 59-41, Trump 63-31. This district is located in Oldham County, one of the wealthiest and most educated areas of Kentucky. Years ago, Oldham was full of country estates used by wealthy residents of Louisville, when they wanted to escape the summer heat. Incumbent Republican David Osborne is seeking reelection. Osborne became Speaker of the House after Jeff Hoover was forced to resign amidst a sexual harassment scandal. Osborne faces Diane Seaman, who has held various executive positions with Anthem Blue Cross Blue Shield. Seaman has raised $227K (she is independently wealthy) while Osborne has raised only $32K. Seaman has aired television advertisements attacking Osborne for not raising the age to buy AR-15s. She has also criticized him for supporting charter schools and the pension bill and not considering potential revenue raisers like expanding gambling, legalizing medical marijuana or eliminating film industry tax credits. Osborne is emphasizing Kentucky’s growing economy, which he says is a result of Republicans passing pro-business legislation. He is also campaigning on his efforts to ease congestion by expanding Interstate 71 and Highway 42. This race has recently attracted the attention of the Kentucky Democratic Party, which is spending here, and would love to defeat a House speaker. While Oldham County is wealthy and educated, it still also has a rural “country” feeling (it isn’t just Louisville suburbs) that helps Republicans (there is no Democratic DNA downballot). Can Seaman’s money overcome the built in advantages Republicans have? I don’t think so. Likely R.

KY-HD-60…Bevin 68-29, Knipper 68-32, Westerfield 63-37, Trump 69-25. We now head north to the Ohio River counties, one of the most Republican areas in the state of Kentucky. This district is located in Boone County, the home of several large aerospace businesses and DHL Express, a large German logistics company. Incumbent Republican Sal Santoro is seeking reelection and is being challenged by Boone County sales manager Jesse Parks, who is running as a Democrat. Santoro has been a strong conservative, though he did oppose a home school student rights bill. He has most recently focused on finding a revenue source for improving transportation projects. Parks is focusing on supporting public employees expanding voting rights to formerly incarcerated people, supporting a Fairness law, and protecting the environment. Santoro has raised $62K while Parks has raised $9K. Boone County has a well-established Republican Party and Santoro has proven popular. He should easily win reelection. Safe R.

KY-HD-61…Bevin 62-34, Knipper 61-39, Westerfield 59-41, Trump 74-22. This district is in part of the Bluegrass region in rural northern Kentucky. The district is mainly agricultural, and includes Ark Encounter, a Christian fundamentalist theme park. Incumbent Republican Brian Linder is retiring after being implicated in a sexual harassment scandal. The Republican nominee is Savannah Maddox, who is chair of the Grant County Republican Party. Maddox is focusing on being pro-life, pro-2^ndamendment and the need for a balanced budget and holistic rehabilitation for drug addiction. Democrats are running former Grant County Judge Executive Darrell Link. Link has the backing of most unions. He is highlighting his record at the county level, namely balancing the budget without tax increases and getting funding for a new animal shelter and new parks. However, Link was criticized in 2014 for exhibiting aggressive behavior at a fiscal court meeting. Ten years ago, this election would have been competitive. Now, the question is whether conservative Democrats in rural Grant County can come home andoutvote the Republicans in rural Kenton County (which is becoming more exurban as the Cincinnati suburbs creep south). Link may have some residual name recognition and popularity in Grant County too, but he only won by 2 points when he was last on the ballot in 2010. The two of them have each raised about $37K for the election. The fundamentals favor the Republicans and so will I. Likely R.

KY-HD-62…Bevin 62-43, Grimes 51-49, Westerfield 50-50, Trump 64-31. This district is located northwest of Lexington, stretching from some exurban areas in Fayette County through the town of Georgetown and rural horse farms in the “Bluegrass region.” This area has seen incredible economic (and population) growth over the past few decades, largely thanks to the Toyota Motor Manufacturing Factory in Georgetown. Scott County is a mix of Republicans and Democrats, while Owen County is a traditional rural county controlled by Democrats. The two Fayette County precincts have a slight lean towards the Democrats. Incumbent Republican Phil Pratt is running for a second term against teacher and Democrat Jennifer Urie. Pratt has highlighted manufacturing and auto jobs coming into his district, as well as money for infrastructure projects, and clean air bus transportation. Urie has highlighted her opposition to charter schools and the pension bill, as well as her support from local unions and the powerful Kentucky Education Association. The economy in this district is doing very well, and that should help a businessman like Pratt. But if teachers are angry, this is another district that could conceivably flip. In March 2016, Pratt actually lost a special election by four points thanks to low Republican turnout. This time, Pratt has a geographic advantage, as he is from populated Scott County. Urie will need a large margin out of Owen if she wants to win. Pratt has raised $55K while Urie has raised $34K. Likely R.

KY-HD-63…Bevin 62-35, Knipper 63-37, Westerfield 58-42, Trump 62-32. This district is located in northern Kentucky and includes parts of Boone and Kenton County. The district is mainly middle class and includes suburban subdivisions south of Cincinnati. Republican Diane St. Onge is seeking reelection. Onge’s opponent is professor and Democrat Josh Blair. Blair’s platform aims to provide research-based solutions to combat the opioid epidemic, reverse the charter school legislation, reduce college tuition, and enact animal welfare legislation. Onge has campaigned on her support for small businesses and community development, and recent legislation cracking down on revenge porn. She will likely be involved in determining the future of medical marijuana and sports betting in the state in 2019. This is northern Kentucky and it is a miracle that there is even a Democrat on the ballot. She has raised $44K while Blair has raised $14K. She should easily win reelection. Safe R.

KY-HD-64…Bevin 61-35, Knipper 64-36, Westerfield 58-42, Trump 67-27. This district is located in Northern Kentucky – the heart of local Republican strength in Kentucky. This area is fairly densely populated, thanks to suburbs connected to Cincinnati. Some of the employers in this district include Cengage, Mazak and Rotek. Incumbent Republican Kim Moser is seeking another term. She has been a big supporter of using Volkswagen Settlement Funds to get school buses that use cleaner fuel. She faces Democrat Larry Varney, who is running a non-exitstent campaign. Safe R.

KY-HD-65…Conway 56-40, Grimes 59-41, Beshear 64-36, Clinton 50-43. This district is located in Covington in Northern Kentucky, directly across from Cincinnati. The area was the historic home of Stewart Iron Works, the largest iron fence maker in the world. The area was hit hard in the economic recession. Downtown rejuvenation along the riverfront has come at a slow pace, and has mostly centered on healthcare and financial investment. Democrat Arnold Simpson is retiring after 24 years as a state legislator. Democrats have nominated former Covington fire chief Charles Wheatley, while Republicans have nominated Covington City Commissioner Jordan Huizenga. Despite this district being fairly Democratic downballot, turnout can often be low here. The campaign has become nasty, with Democrats arguing that Huizenga has violated campaign finance law. Wheatley has focused on investing in public education, expanding Medicaid, a toll-free solution for the Brent Spence bridge, easing traffic congestion, and emphasizing treatment and prevention to stop the opioid epidemic. Huizenga wants to create innovation grant programs for public schools, invest in workforce development, deal with vacant lots, and provide a pathway to work for people with criminal records. This district has a Democratic DNA but Huizenga is not going quietly – he has raised $77K while Wheatley has only raised $42K. I’ll put this at Lean D, but in a low turnout situation Huizenga could surprise.

Arkansas State Senate Primary Preview

GradyDem

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Monday May 21, 2018 · 7:39 PM PDT

2018/05/21 · 19:39

On Tuesday, voters will go to the polls for primary elections in six State Senate districts. The key issues this year are:

Arkansas Works – Arkansas Works is the state version of expanded Medicaid. Arkansas Works has its roots in the Beebe administration. Beebe expanded Obamacare, but to appease Republican state legislators, Medicaid money was used to get people to buy private insurance (the so-called “private option.”) Hutchinson renamed the program “Arkansas Works” and has continued funding it, despite the criticism of conservatives who say that Republicans should not be embracing Obamacare in any fashion.
Government Spending – Many conservative Republicans are angry that Governor Hutchinson continues to increase government spending, especially in the healthcare sector.
Tax Reform – Governor Hutchinson and establishment conservatives are running on “pro-growth tax relief” that has been passed in the past few legislative sessions. Tax reform plus a booming economy will allow Arkansas to end the upcoming fiscal year with a surplus. Democrats have criticized the tax bill for favoring the wealthy.
Tort Reform – A 2018 ballot initiative will cap attorney fees and non-economic damages awards as part of a broader tort reform amendment. The amendment has the support of the state chamber of commerce and Governor Hutchinson but is opposed by trial lawyers.

In a perfect situation, Democrats might be able to pickup 1 or 2 seats in the Arkansas State Senate. But the body as a whole is Safe R.

Now onto the primary races:

Arkansas State Senate District 5

Romney 67%, Obama 30%

This district includes parts of Carroll County, Washington County, Crawford County, Sebastian County, Franklin County, and Johnson County and all of Madison County. It includes very conservative small towns in the Ozarks (this district is very forested!) as well as the liberal resort town of Eurkea Springs. The area is known for small manufacturing, forestry, hunting, fishing, and recreation.

The incumbent is Republican State Senator Bryan King, who faces state Representative Bob Ballinger in the primary. King has campaigned as the anti-establishment candidate. He has opposed Governor Hutchinson’s efforts to increase spending and expand Obamacare (under the private option known as Arkansas Works). He is considered very close with Jan Morgan, who is running to Hutchinson’s right in the gubernatorial primary. Ballinger has campaigned as a supporter of Hutchinson, decided to support the private option (as long as the scope is narrowed), and is considered more willing to compromise.

The two candidates have also sparred over some state and local issues. King opposes a constitutional amendment on the ballot that will limit the recovery of noneconomic damages in litigation to $500,000 while Ballinger supports this amendment. King and Ballinger have also sparred over the decision made by a Pulaski County Circuit judge to impose an $18 fee on property owners in Northwest Arkansas to clean up a landfill.

Ballinger and King agree on most social issues. Both are pro-life and anti-gay marriage, and both want to ban transgender people from using restrooms that correspond with their gender identity. Ballinger is well known for shepherding the Religious Freedom and Restoration Act through the state government, that would have allowed businesses to refuse to do things against their own beliefs. The law drew major criticism from Wal-Mart, which has a foothold in the district and had to be rewritten to conform with federal law. King has highlighted his support for Voter ID as well.

In recent days, the campaign has taken on a more negative turn. King has alleged that Ballinger is connected to the Ecclesia College kickback case, which ended in former State Senator Jon Woods pleading guilty to fraud.

King expected to retire and decided to run again at the last minute. He has only raised $8K, whereas Ballinger has raised $44K. Ballinger and King are both from Carroll County. In a low-turnout primary, King’s name recognition in other parts of the district could prove to help him. However, Ballinger’s money could also help. I lean towards King for now, but anything could happen.

Whoever advances to the general election will face Democrat Jim Wallace and Libertarian Lee Evans. Wallace is a firefighter and businessman. This district was represented by Democrat Randy Laverty as recently as 2010, but it is hard to see a new Democrat getting elected here. Safe R.

Arkansas State Senate District 8

Romney 69%, Obama 29%

This district takes in most of Fort Smith, except the minority (Democratic Party-friendly areas) at the tip of Sebastian County. Fort Smith has historically been a regional manufacturing center, though corporations including OK Foods and Baldor Electric Company have also been an integral part of the economy. Fort Smith has historically been Republican (at least compared to the rest of the state), because it has less of an agricultural legacy than southern Arkansas or the Delta.

The incumbent Republican Jake Files resigned after pleading guilty to federal charges including bank fraud. The seat is currently open.

There are three Republicans running for the seat: State Representative Mat Pitsch, former State Representative and former State Senator Denny Altes, and former state Representative Frank Glidewell.

Glidewell is running against Arkansas Works and Governor Asa Hutchinson and has said he will back Jan Morgan for Governor. Glidewell has also declared his opposition to expanding the sales tax to cover internet purchases and says he is opposed to the tort reform ballot initiative that would cap punitive damages. Glidewell has come under controversy for accepting $63,000 per diem as a State Representative

Pitsch has been a strong supporter of Governor Hutchinson, particularly on tax reform and Arkansas Works. Pitsch supports the ballot initiative to cap punitive damages and has highlighted the need to expand maintain transportation infrastructure in Fort Smith. He also opposes medical marijuana, a big issue for the region.

Altes has campaigned on his record as state drug czar as well as his experience as state Representative and State Senator. Altes said that he would support legalizing medical marijuana if it was non-smoking. Altes supports the tort reform ballot initiative and wants to “starve” the government by getting rid of 20% of each agency’s budget. Altes said that he supports Governor Hutchinson, but noted that Hutchinson is not as conservative as he would like.

This race is completely up for grabs. Pitsch has raised $69K and spent $16K. Altes has raised $5K and spent $30K. Glidewell has raised $0 and spent $7K. Pitsch is probably most prominent, so I will go with him, but a low turnout could mean anything.

Arkansas State Senate District 15

Romney 66%, Obama 32%

This district takes in a few exurban precincts in Northern Pulaski County, before moving through rural Perry County, rural Conway County, rural Van Buren County, and rural Faulkner County. It was originally drawn as a Democratic gerrymander, but has rapidly moved to the right over the past eight years. The district’s economy is based on agriculture (cattle and hogs), small manufacturing, forestry, tourism, and timber.

Incumbent State Senator David Sanders is set to retire in January 2019, though he will continue his work as Director of Winrock International’s Innovate Arkansas, the statewide initiative that helps startups and other technology ventures reach their potential.

Two Republicans are running in the primary to succeed Sanders. Dillards lobbyist and former state representative Dean Elliott is running as the self-described pro-Trump insurgent candidate. He has been criticized for missing votes in the State House and for allowing illegals to get drivers licenses. Charity consultant Mark Johnson is running on a self-described “Christian, conservative” platform and has focused on social issues. Johnson has been endorsed by Mike Huckabee and state Representative Mark Lowery.

Both candidates are from Pulaski County, leaving the vast rural reaches of this district open to either candidate. Johnson has raised $60K and spent $16K while Elliott has raised $36K and spent $9K. Advantage to Johnson.

Whoever wins the Republican primary will be unopposed in the general election.

Arkansas State Senate District 19

Romney 68%, Obama 28%

This district is located northeastern Arkansas, home of the old school conservative Democrat. It takes in Independence County, Izard County, Sharp County, and Randolph County. The district includes scenic hills known for tourism and rafting as well as construction, mining, and small manufacturing.

The incumbent Senator is Republican Linda Collins-Smith. Collins-Smith has opposed Hutchinson’s Arkansas Works Program, though did back his tax cut plan. Collins-Smith has also supported school choice (in contrast to Sturch), and enhanced carry, a longtime priority of Gun Owners of America. Collins-Smith also introduced a “bathroom” bill in the last session.

Collins-Smith faces a primary challenge from State Representative James Sturch. Sturch supported the Hutchinson tax cut and also supported Arkansas Works. He has opposed school choice legislation and has criticized Collins-Smith for voting present on a measure to cut taxes on military retirees.

Collins-Smith is from Pocahantas, where there are still a lot of conservative Democrats (the only remaining rural Blue Dog Democrat in the legislature is from Pocahantas). Sturch is from an area with more people identifying as Republicans. Collins-Smith has raised $25K and spent $16K while Sturch has raised $40K and spent $28K. Slight advantage to Collins-Smith for incumbency, but Sturch could upset.

Arkansas State Senate District 24

Obama 62%, Romney 37%

This district is a minority-majority district located in the Delta. The rural areas of this district are agricultural (a lot of corporate beef and hog farms). The district is also home to West Memphis. Like the rest of the Delta, this district remains mired in poverty, and has been hard by the drug crisis.

The incumbent State Senator is white Democrat and State Senate Minority Leader Keith Ingram. Ingram has connections to the previously powerful Democrats in the state: Mike Beebe, Mike Ross, Mark Pryor, Blanche Lincoln etc. Since he is in the minority, Ingram has focused more on constituent services. He secured grants to keep the I-55 bridge open in Memphis, has secured funding for the Port of West Memphis, and has introduced legislation to provide tax credits for poor rural communities in the Delta.

Ingram faces Turrell mayor Dorothy Cooper in the primary. Cooper is highlighting her work rebuilding libraries, streets, and the water system in her town. She wants to focus on education and economic systems, especially in the proverbial dying towns of the Delta. Cooper is black, and will likely do well among the black population. However, blacks have historically voted at low rates in the primary, which is why Ingram was elected in the first place.

The primary has been very quiet and has not turned negative. Ingram has raised $80K and spent $21K. Cooper has raised $1K and spent $5K. Ingram should win, thanks to his name recognition advantage.

Arkansas State Senate District 30

Obama 75%, Romney 23%

This district is a minority-majority seat containing exurban areas southeast of Little Rock, some areas that seem very rural (with fields) southeast of Little Rock, very poor areas of eastern Little Rock, upper middle class areas of North Little Rock, and a variety of suburbs and unincorporated area in northeast Pulaski County.

The incumbent Democrat is Linda Chesterfield. Chesterfield is being challenged by businessman and state farm insurance agent Andre Pendleton.

Chesterfield has come under fire from the media for earmarking her General Improvement Fund funds to a Missouri-based healthcare company. The company has come under federal scrutiny because its lobbyist, Rusty Cranford was charged in connection with a scheme to obtain state and federal funds in exchange for bribes and kickbacks. Chesterfield is highlighting her support for public education and Medicaid and says she wants to expand internet access to her residents. She also wants to make sure that the Board of Education gives control of the Little Rock School District back to local officials (control of school districts has been a complicated issue in Little Rock since the 1957 integration of Central High).

Chesterfield has raised $11K and spent $14K while Pendleton does not appear to have raised any money. In a low-turnout election, Chesterfield should win, though if corruption allegations swirl around her, she could be vulnerable with a better opponent in 4 years.

2018 Kentucky House Primary Preview

GradyDem

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Monday May 21, 2018 · 6:47 PM PDT

2018/05/21 · 18:47

N.B. – The first part of this is a wrap-up of the 2017 and 2018 legislative session. This is mostly policy-related, but it is super important to understanding Kentucky elections in 2018.

Overview of the 2017-2018 Legislative Session: Part I

On November 8, 2016, the Kentucky House Republican Party won the State House for the first time since 1921. While many politicos expected the party to do well in the 2016 election, the scale of victory was surprising to both Republicans and Democrats. State House Republicans knocked off Democratic incumbents who had been in office for thirty years, doing extremely well across rural Kentucky.

The State House Republican Caucus unanimously elected Jeff Hoover, from Russell County, to be Speaker of the House of Representatives. Republicans moved many of their long-stalled priorities in the 2017 legislative session, including charter schools, right-to-work, a repeal of the prevailing wage, limits on Planned Parenthood funding, a ban on abortion after the 20^th week of pregnancy, the abolition of the University of Louisville board of trustees, and bible literacy. By all accounts, it was a stunning success. Some conservative Democrats joined Republicans while more liberal Democrats could do nothing except hope that Andy Beshear would sue the legislature or Matt Bevin to prevent enforcement of various conservative laws.

But then things started to go south. In November, the Courier Journal reported that Speaker Hoover reached a confidential settlement over sexual harassment allegations by a woman who works on his legislative staff. The controversy continued for three months as Hoover hemmed and hawed about whether to resign as Speaker. While that drama was playing out, the media confirmed that campaign donors funded the settlement while lawsuits were filed alleging that a woman suffered retribution for disclosing workplace harassment in Hoover’s office.

The next big shoe to drop was a bombshell report on State Representative Dan Johnson, a Republican of Bullitt County. Among the many interesting parts of Johnson’s past: he molested a 17-year old girl on New Year’s Eve in 2012, committed arson to collect insurance, was possibly involved in another arson case with his church, was cited at least three times by Alcohol Beverage Control officers, and was involved in a number of different lies, including that he had served as a United Nations ambassador and White House chaplain to three presidents. He was also the pastor who had given last rites for people who died at the World Trade Center on September 11^th. Johnson quickly killed himself even though he denied the allegations.

When the legislature reconvened in January, the Hoover scandal continued. Despite saying he would resign, Hoover decided to remain de facto Speaker, while he turned over floor management to Speaker Pro Tempore David Osborne. Meanwhile, 8 Republicans decided they would try to expel Hoover from the body. This caused Osborne to form a special investigative committee to investigative Hoover. The committee promptly dissolved in a week. Hoover delivered several angry speeches from the House floor, demanding that the House require the loser pay for any special investigative committee. He finally resigned from the Speakership, but only after wasting several weeks of precious legislative time. (In April, Hoover admitted he violated ethics rules and was fined $1000).

The disarray continued, but this time on the policy side.

The pension system in Kentucky has been ailing for some years, but the Republican controlled Senate and the Democratic controlled House had not been able to work out an acceptable compromise to solve the problem. The problem has become more severe in recent years – the main fund for state employees has only 14% of the money to pay retirees.

With the State House now under Republican control, there was an expectation that pensions would be one of the top issues dealt with in the 2018 legislative session. In October 2017, Matt Bevin introduced a bill that would end guaranteed benefit pension plans and switch workers to 401(k) type plans. Bevin also proposed that current workers pay 3% of their salaries to retiree health and proposed that teachers’ cost of living adjustments be frozen over the next few years.

Bevin’s bill sparked outrage among public employees and teachers. The Kentucky Educational Association organized town halls and protests, which prompted more fiscally liberal State House Republicans to decide they couldn’t back Bevin’s bill. Bevin criticized opponents for lacking the sophistication to understand what was in his bill.

By 2018, it had become clear that Bevin could not pass his bill. Many people thought pension reform would be dead. But at the last minute, Republican leaders jammed through a new bill. Changes to pension plans would now only affect future workers, but the bill changed how current workers could use saved-up sick days. State workers would no longer get a 4% return on retirement savings. Most Republicans in Eastern Kentucky joined a unified Democratic caucus in voting no.

Teachers and state workers were livid. Daily protests at the state capital commenced, while schools closed around the state.

But Republicans weren’t done. Kentucky has not only had a pension problem over the past two decades. The state also has a revenue problem. State House and State Senate Republicans agreed to a tax bill that would have decreased taxes on wealthy and corporations, expanded the sales tax and cigarette tax, and increased spending on public education. Matt Bevin promptly vetoed the bill, which was followed by additional protests. The veto was overturned by the state legislature.

Right after the state legislature overturned the veto, Bevin emerged from the governor’s mansion and announced that because teachers had taken off work to protest, a child in Kentucky had been sexually assaulted. Bevin’s comment drew widespread condemnation from members of both parties. In an unusual move, the State House of Representatives unanimously passed a resolution formally condemning Bevin for his comments. Bevin ultimately apologized for his comments.

Onto the Races: Part II

Why does all of this matter? The 2018 State Legislative session has exposed huge cleavages in the House Republican Caucus. The relationship between Matt Bevin, Robert Stivers, Jeff Hoover, and David Osborne is probably beyond broken. Bevin’s approval rating has collapsed, and there is some suggestion that he may decide to retire. If he does run in 2019, Bevin is almost certain to face a strong challenge from Rocky Adkins to Andy Beshear.

The protests have reinvigorated the state Democratic Party. Women and teachers have gotten off the sidelines to run for political office, many for the first time. Despite a disastrous 2016, Democrats actually did far better in candidate recruitment this time around, running candidates in 92 State House seats and 14 of 16 State Senate races. In other southern Democratic states, Democrats had fought hard during the cycle they lost the state legislature and then essentially given up and stopped fielding candidates. The Kentucky Democratic Party does not appear to have given up just yet.

The KYDP is also using a different legislative strategy than in the past. When Greg Stumbo and Jody Richards controlled the party, candidates for State House seats generally tended to be fairly popular county or city officials. Under Ben Self and Rocky Adkins, the party has recruited everyday people – businessmen, teachers etc. to run for office.

The Kentucky Republican Party did decently in candidate recruitment. 2 out of 3 vulnerable Democrats in the State House will have Republican challengers. In the State House, Republicans have candidates for 29 out of 36 seats, though embarrassingly failed to find candidates for several seats that Trump won by 50+ points.

However, getting candidates to file is only one part of the process. The KYDP is in horrendous financial shape while the KYGOP is for the first time doing reasonably well. Republicans are likely to have the support of Mitch McConnell and wealthy donors while most outside Democrats are likely to spend time investing in winning more competitive state legislatures.

Moreover, Donald Trump remains popular in Kentucky. His policies (tax cuts, reduction in regulations, support for coal) play well across the state, especially in rural areas. There is a strong cultural dislike of coastal elite Democrats. Democrats are hurt by the fact that they are defending 11 open seats, of which 4 could seem likely to flip (1 other incumbent, Wilson Stone, is likely to lose reelection).

So will the Kentucky House races be nationalized or localized? Nationalizing the races favors the Republicans. Localizing the races favors the Democrats.

With that, let us look at the 35 key primaries.

Kentucky State House District 3

2012 President: Romney 58%, Obama 42%
2014 Senate: McConnell 56%, Grimes 42%
2015 Governor: Bevin 53%, Conway 44%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 51%, Grimes 49%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 50%, Beshear 50%
2016 President: Trump 59%, Clinton 36%

This district is located in urban Paducah, the largest town in the Jackson Purchase. Paducah is known for its craft art (including quilts) and is also the site of a uranium enrichment plant. Long ago, it served as a distribution point where farmers from rural western Kentucky would come to sell their crops.

Conservative Democrat Gerald Watkins is retiring to run for local office. There is a Republican primary between Joni Hogancamp (who lost to Watkins in 2016) and Randy Bridges (who lost to Watkins in 2014). Bridges did a bit better than Hogancamp in their races against Watkins.

Hogancamp is a businesswoman, who is focusing on healthcare and attracting industry to western Kentucky. Kentucky Right to Life has endorsed Hogancamp. Bridges is a realtor and is focused on tackling the drug epidemic through education and incarceration, promoting a business-friendly tax plan, and promoting a balanced budget.

Both candidates are fairly generic conservatives. Bridges has raised $t0K and spent $24K while Hogancamp has raised $20K and spent $1K. Perhaps a slight tilt toward Bridges.

Whoever wins will face Democrat Martha Emmons in the general election. Emmons is a Paducah businesswoman who owns a bicycle shop. She is likely to follow in Watkins’ footsteps as a strong supporter of unions.

This district contains urban Paducah, so the Democratic floor is higher than other west Kentucky seats. But the suburbs are blood red. Tossup in the general.

Kentucky State House District 4

2012 President: Romney 70%, Obama 29%
2014 Senate: McConnell 64%, Grimes 32%
2015 Governor: Bevin 62%, Conway 35%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 58%, Grimes 42%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 62%, Beshear 38%
2016 President: Trump 77%, Clinton 20%

This district is located in western Kentucky, and includes Livingston, Crittenden, Caldwell, and parts of Christian County. Historically, this district’s economy has consisted of a mix of agriculture and industry. Like other areas in Western Kentucky, tobacco has been a big part of this district’s heritage. Until the middle of the 20^th century, Crittenden County was home to an iron mining industry. This region also has a few coal mines. Today, the district is primarily agricultural.

There is a Republican primary between three-term incumbent Lynn Belcher and farmer Fred Stubblefield.

Both candidates have remarkably similar campaign platforms, though with different focuses. Belcher is campaigning on eliminating the state income tax, investigating Kentucky Wired (a Beshear-era program to bring broadband to the rest of the state that is over budget), and reducing state spending. Stubblefield is campaigning on investing in infrastructure and reducing taxes.

Both Belcher and Stubblefield share the same opinions on education (focus is on public education but charter schools are fine), the minimum wage (opposed to an increase), medical marijuana (opposed to legalization), smoking ban (opposed), and Internet voting (opposed).

It is worth noting that Lynn Belcher did not vote on the pension reform bill.

Belcher has raised $12K and spent $1K while Stubblefield has raised $4K and spent $3K. Belcher has been a relatively non-controversial incumbent and should be able to win.

Whoever advances to the general will face Emerge Kentucky graduate and lawyer Abigail C. Barnes. Barnes is running against the Republican pension reform bill as well as Belcher’s support for prevailing wage repeal and right-to-work. This race will be tough for Democrats, though Belcher did underperform Mitch McConnell by 18 points in 2014 (winning 55-45). A Democratic wave could put Barnes on top, but I wouldn’t bet on it. Likely R.

Kentucky State House District 6

2012 President: Romney 66%, Obama 37%
2014 Senate: McConnell 60%, Grimes 37%
2015 Governor: Bevin 54%, Conway 43%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 51%, Grimes 49%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 50%, Beshear 50%
2016 President: Trump 73%, Clinton 23%

This district includes Benton County, Lyon County, and one precinct in McCracken County. This district is primarily agricultural and has a strong Democratic heritage. Benton is widely known for its Big Singing Day, which is considered the oldest indigenous musical tradition in the United States.

The incumbent Democrat is Will Coursey. Coursey is the last Democrat to represent rural agricultural Western Kentucky in the State House. He will not be seeking reelection, creating a primary on both the Democratic and the Republican side.

The Democratic primary is between Al Cunningham, Linda Edwards, and Drew Williams, all from Benton. Cunningham is a former union representative with strong connections to the AFL-CIO. Edwards is a retail business owner and former elementary teacher. Williams is an environmental activist and campaign volunteer, and is probably the most liberal of all three candidates. All of the Democrats are running against the Republican pension bill and as supporters of unions.

Cunningham has raised $15K and spent $7K while Edwards has raised $1K and spent $1K. Williams has raised $4K and spent $4K. It is anybody’s guess who wins in a low turnout primary.

The Republican primary is between Randall Fox and Chris Freeland. Fox is a business owner and has served on the Bluegrass State Skills Corporation Board. Freeland is the owner of a broadcasting company and is focusing on infrastructure and attracting businesses to western Kentucky. Fox appears to be a more eccentric Republican, running on a balanced budget amendment, support for a Medicaid expansion, and support for finding more revenue to send to the pension system (rather than changing the structure of the pensions themselves). Freeland has raised $14K, and spent $3K while Fox has raised $11K and spent $10K. There will be very few votes cast in the Republican primary, so it is anybody’s guess who wins the primary.

The general election will be competitive. Republicans have captured every other rural west Kentucky seat but the 6^th has doggedly held out. Coursey was one of two rural Democratic incumbents with challengers in 2016 to win by double digits. Was it Coursey’s popularity or are the voters here willing to accept conservative Democrats? Can teachers propel the Democrats to victory here? We shall see. Tossup.

Kentucky State House District 14

2012 President: Romney 66%, Obama 32%
2014 Senate: McConnell 60%, Grimes 37%
2015 Governor: Bevin 59%, Conway 38%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 52%, Grimes 48%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 52%, Beshear 48%
2016 President: Trump 73%, Clinton 22%

This district takes in the outer areas of Owensboro, rural eastern Daviess County and rural Ohio County. Ohio County is home to some coal mining.

Freshman Republican Matt Castlen is already trying to move up to the State Senate, and is leaving this seat vacant. The two Republicans running to replace him are Jordan Lanham, a coal mine operator and Ohio County Schools Superintendent Scott Lewis. Lanham is endorsed by Castlen. Overall, both candidates seem to be fairly conservative.

Lanham has a geographic advantage. More Republican votes will be cast in Daviess County than in conservative Democratic areas of Ohio County. But Lewis probably has higher name recognition in the district.

But in a low turnout primary, either of them could prevail. Lanham has raised $25K and spent $23K while Lewis has raised $12K and spent $9K.

Whoever wins the primary will face community activist and Democrat Elizabeth Belcher in November. This district flipped to Republicans for the first time in 2016 and has probably flipped for good. We will call it Likely R for now, but bordering on Safe R.

Kentucky State House District 17

2012 President: Romney 69%, Obama 30%
2014 Senate: McConnell 66%, Grimes 31%
2015 Governor: Bevin 63%, Conway 35%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 59%, Grimes 41%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 60%, Beshear 40%
2016 President: Trump 68%, Clinton 27%

This district covers Butler County and areas west of Bowling Green in Warren County. This area is agricultural and is considered a center of downballot power for the Kentucky Republican Party. In other words, conservative Democrats do not win here.

Incumbent Republican Jim DeCesare is retiring after being named in the sexual harassment case that caused the Jeff Hoover scandal. The Republican candidates are business owner Joey Franzell, Pharmacy CEO Steve Sheldon, Warren County Republican Chair David Graham, and school administrator Mike Wilson. None of the candidates are running on particularly different platforms.

In terms of fundraising, Sheldon has raised $54K and spent $54K, Wilson has raised $6K and spent $4K, Graham has raised $12K and spent $5K and Franzell has not raised or spent any money.

Sheldon is probably the likeliest candidate to win, though in a low turnout primary, Franzell could theoretically win by virtue of being the only candidate from Butler County.

Whoever advances to the general election will face businessman and Democrat Malcom Cherry, who almost beat DeCesare twelve years ago. Cherry has no chance to win. Safe R.

Kentucky State House District 19

2012 President: Romney 62%, Obama 37%
2014 Senate: McConnell 59%, Grimes 38%
2015 Governor: Bevin58%, Conway 38%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 56%, Grimes 44%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 56%, Beshear 44%
2016 President: Trump 68%, Clinton 28%

This district encompasses Edmonson County and areas east and north of Bowling Green in Warren County.

Michael Lee Meredith is the incumbent Republican. Meredith is running for reelection despite being named in the same sexual harassment case as Jeff Hoover. Meredith will face professor and former Bowling Green City Councilman Brian Kent Strow in the Republican primary, who appears to be running as a standard conservative with libertarian tendencies. Meredith has raised $49K and spent $21K while Strow has raised $6K and spent $4K. I’m going to go advantage Meredith unless the harassment scandal has sunk in deeper than I can tell.

There is also a Democratic primary. The candidates are retired deputy sheriff and conservative Democrat Bill Fishback, veteran Daniel Wayne Johnson, and warehouse worker Jacob Moore. Johnson and Moore are more liberal than Fishback. Fishback has raised $1K and spent $1K, Johnson has raised $0 and Moore has raised $0. It is anybody’s guess who wins the primary.

The Republicans should be favored in the general election. Safe R.

Kentucky State House District 20

2012 President: Romney 50%, Obama 48%
2014 Senate: McConnell 52%, Grimes 46%
2015 Governor: Conway 50%, Bevin 47%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 56%, Knipper 44%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 55%, Westerfield 45%
2016 President: Clinton 47%, Trump 46%

This district is centered on Bowling Green. Bowling Green is known for Western Kentucky University, its Green Assembly plant (that manufactures Chevrolet Cars), and its historic downtown area. The area is known for its high income and low cost of doing business, and also has a thriving industrial and healthcare sector.

The representative for this district is powerful Democrat Jody Richards, who was first elected to the State House in 1976, and then served as Speaker from 1995 to 2009 and then served as Speaker Pro Tempore from 2015-2017. In January 2018, Richards announced he would retire from politics in January 2019.

The retirement of Richards left a big hole in this district. Five Democrats have jumped in to the race: former Western Kentucky Vice President for Alumni Relations Rick DuBose, history professor Patti Minter, Bowling Green City Commissioner Brian Nash, attorney Ashlea Porter, and former Bowling Green Mayor Eldon Renaud.

All of the Democratic candidates are campaigning to increase spending on K-12 education and public education, reverse the Republican pension bill, and create a culture that encourages respect for teachers. Minter wants to close corporate loopholes to get more revenue to spend on education while Nash imagines taxing medical marijuana and making the tax system for 1099 employees more efficient. Both Minter and Nash are both very close with the LGBT community. Local unions back Renaud while Dubose has emphasized his belief that healthcare is a right, not a privilege. Porter is focusing on infrastructure investment and investing in new economic and industrial opportunity.

Dubose has raised $19K and spent $5K. Minter has raised $33K and spent $15K. Nash has raised $3K and spent $3K. Porter has raised $10K and spent $9K and Renaud has raised $13K and spent $11K. Any of the candidates could conceivably win, though I would watch Minter, Dubose, and Renaud.

There is also a Republican primary between business consultant Troy Brooks, businessman Ben Lawson, and JROTC instructor Todd Alcott. Brooks has previously been indicted on theft charges in Tennessee thanks to a Nigerian get-rich-quick scheme. Alcott is the only Republican to support the Bevin pension bill. All three Republicans supported the Republican tax bill.

Alcott has raised $20K and spent $15K. Brooks has raised $24K and spent $23K and Lawson has raised $28K and spent $19K. Republican turnout should be very low on Tuesday. I have no idea who wins, though I am going hazard a guess and say Lawson.

This district is likely to stay Democratic in the general election. The presence of Western Kentucky University makes this district the heart of resistance to Matt Bevin’s pension legislation and his comments about teachers. Hillary Clinton beat Trump here and Democrats do well downballot. However, Democrats will have to spend money to make sure minority voters in Bowling Green (historically low turnout in midterms) actually come out to vote.

Likely D.

Kentucky State House District 25

2012 President: Romney 62%, Obama 36%
2014 Senate: McConnell 59%, Grimes 37%
2015 Governor: Bevin 58%, Conway 38%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 52%, Grimes 48%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 53%, Beshear 47%
2016 President: Trump 65%, Clinton 30%

This district takes in the southern third of Hardin County. The area includes rural agricultural areas, and town of Elizabethtown. Today, Elizabethtown has a substantial commercial and manufacturing sector and is becoming more integrated with Louisville.

There is a Democratic primary for this seat. The candidates are retired educator Tom Williamson and school board member Matt Wyatt. Wyatt is opposed to Bevin’s cuts to public schools, supports Medicaid expansion, and wants to improve workforce development initiatives. Wyatt is highlighting his work on the school board, especially because he presided over a period of improved test scores and increased teacher salaries. Williamson is focusing on Bevin’s war “against public education” and is also against the Republican pension plan.

Williamson has raised $9K and spent $6K while Wyatt has raised $2K and spent $2K. I think Wililamson has a better chance to win.

The winner of the primary will face sophomore Republican Jim DuPlessis. DuPlessis is a standard conservative on both fiscal and social issues and has focused on financial literacy in the State House. DuPlessis won by 50 points over an underwhelming Democrat in 2016. He is likely favored again, but this kind of district could turn into ground zero for the anti-Bevin protests is likely favored in the general election but this could be ground zero for the anti-Bevin, pro-union protests that have been roiling the state. Likely R.

Kentucky State House District 27

2012 President: Romney 56%, Obama 42%
2014 Senate: McConnell 53%, Grimes 44%
2015 Governor: Bevin 50%, Conway 45%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 54%, Knipper 46%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 54%, Westerfield 46%
2016 President: Trump 65%, Clinton 31%

This district encompasses Meade County and parts of Hardin County. Meade County is known for its recreation opportunities along the Ohio River, and the historic downtown of Brandenburg. The area is connected economically with the Fort Knox area.

The representative here is Democrat Jeff Greer. Greer is chair of the Banking and Insurance Committee and has attracted criticism in the past for writing bills that would help banks over consumers. Greer has been an outspoken proponent of the prevailing wage and an opponent of right-to-work.

There is a Republican primary between Rachelle Frazier and Nancy Tate. Frazier, the Director of Life Transformation Ministries, faced Greer in 2014 and got 43% and faced Greer in 2016 and got 46%. Tate is a UPS employee.

Frazier has raised $3K and spent $1K while Tate has raised $20K and spent $18K. This district has a lot of conservative Democrats, so turnout in the republican primary will be low. Frazier has the name recognition but Tate has the money. Either of the two could win.

Whoever advances to the general will face Greer. The seat is a potential pickup for Republicans, but Greer has managed to hold it down without much stress. It is the kind of place that can easily support fiscally liberal socially conservative Democrats like Greer, especially after the legislative policies pushed by Bevin and House Republicans. Lean D.

Kentucky State House District 30

2012 President: Obama 72%, Romney 27%
2014 Senate: Grimes 72%, McConnell 27%
2015 Governor: Conway 70%, Bevin 26%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 76%, Knipper 24%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 76%, Westerfield 24%
2016 President: Clinton 70%, Trump 26%

This district is located in urban Louisville and contains the neighborhoods of Watterson Park, West Buechel, and Poplar Hills.

The representative here is Democrat Tom Burch. Burch has served in the State House since 1978, and has focused on legislation having to do with early childhood development, homelessness, and healthcare. Burch is very liberal.

Burch faces a Democratic primary against historian and business manager Warren Greer and James Penny.

Greer wants to focus on improving infrastructure, reducing crime and fighting back against bigotry. He is a strong opponent of Bevin’s pension bill, wants to increase teacher pay, and expand outdoor recreation opportunities. Greer has hit Burch for serving as Chair of the House health and Welfare Committee at a time when the opioid crisis exploded, diabetes exploded, and cancer rates in Kentucky increased. Greer has also pointed out Burch’s connections with pharmaceutical companies and the health insurance industry.

Penny is focused on investing in STEM jobs, fighting the opioid crisis, combating homelessness, increasing the amount of money budgeted for education, and legalizing medical marijuana and gambling.

Burch has raised $73K, while Greer has raised $6K and Penny has raised $5K. In a low-turnout primary, Burch’s name recognition, deep community roots, and popularity carries the way.

In the general, Burch will face Republican Christine O’Connor. Safe D.

Kentucky State House District 32

2012 President: Romney 55%, Obama 43%
2014 Senate: McConnell 54%, Grimes 44%
2015 Governor: Conway 49%, Bevin 48%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 54%, Knipper 46%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 55%, Westerfield 45%
2016 President: Clinton 47%, Trump 47%

This district is located east of Louisville and includes middle class and wealthy areas of the city.

The incumbent is sophomore Republican Phil Moffett. Moffett came to the House as a well-known fiscal conservative, campaigning on cutting spending and eliminating the state income tax. However, Moffett notably opposed the pension reform bill. I’m not exactly sure why, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it was from the right. He faces businessman Alan Steiden in the primary, who does not appear to be making much of an effort.

Democrats will be gunning for Moffett in the general election. Moffett’s seat is the closet thing you can get in Kentucky to a wealthy suburban seat that has been turned off by Trump and is considering embracing fiscally moderate socially liberal Democrats (that analogy doesn’t quite work because local conservative Democrats running statewide still do well here, but it is the best I can do).

Tina Bojanowski is the Democratic candidate. She is an Emerge Kentucky graduate, and has the strong support of various labor groups and education groups. She is particularly concerned about investing in education for students with disabilities, and wants to focus on mental healthcare. I can almost guarantee that statewide Democrats like Andy Beshear, Alison Lundergan Grimes, and Steve Beshear will help Bojanowski in November.

It will be a close race. Moffett is decently popular, and in nearby (and more Democratic) HD-38, Republican Incumbent Denny Butler lost by just two points in 2016. Tossup.

Moffett has raised $5K and spent $200 while Bojanowski has raised $25K and spent $8K. Steiden has raised no money and spent no money.

Kentucky State House District 33

2012 President: Romney 57%, Obama 41%
2014 Senate: McConnell 55%, Grimes 43%
2015 Governor: Bevin 52%, Conway 45%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 51%, Knipper 49%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 51%, Westerfield 49%
2016 President: Trump 50%, Clinton 44%

This district is located in the northern areas of Louisville, Kentucky, and also includes suburban areas of Oldham County. This area tends to be upper income and is home to a sizable percentage of Eastern European immigrants. The suburban areas of Oldham County have some of the most educated people in Kentucky.

The incumbent is Republican Jason Michael Nemes. Nemes was against the more extreme Bevin pension bill but supported the compromise that came out of the legislature.

The Democratic primary is between 2016 candidate and lawyer Rob Walker and lawyer Ashley Nash.

Walker is campaigning on opposing charter schools, funding pensions for state workers, expanding gaming, legalizing medicinal marijuana, repealing right to work, banning discrimination, imposing term limits, ending gerrymandering, and treating drug addiction as an illness and not a crime.

Nash is campaigning on many similar themes. She wants to stop public education from being attacked, support universal pre-K, repeal right-to-work, support universal healthcare coverage, legalize medical marijuana, support public financing of elections, and stop the recent Republican pension bill.

Walker has raised $26K and spent $16K while Nash has raised $10K and spent $2K. I favor Walker in a low-turnout primary, partly because of high name recognition.

This district will be competitive. It is like HD-32: upper income, full of professionals, and socially moderate voters. Nemes won by 12 points in 2016 and is a good fundraiser, suggesting that he can out perform the top of the ticket. But if Bevin backlash hits here, it will hit strong.

Lean R.

Kentucky State House District 35

2012 President: Obama 56%, Romney 42%
2014 Senate: Grimes 59%, McConnell 38%
2015 Governor: Conway 63%, Bevin 33%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 68%, Knipper 32%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 68%, Westerfield 32%
2016 President: Clinton 54%, Trump 40%

This district is located in urban Louisville, south of downtown. The district contains working class neighborhoods and the airport.

Incumbent Democrat Jim Wayne is retiring. Wayne is one of the liberal stalwarts in the state legislature. The candidates to replace him include union organizer Richard Becker, campaign consultant Jack Walker, and Lisa Wilner, the Jefferson County Public Schools board vice chair. All three candidates are running as progressives.

Wilner was credited with making Jefferson County Public Schools a safe haven for immigrants, advocating for restorative justice in schools, and lobbying for transgender inclusion.

Walker is focused on his experience as a Frankfort insider. He supports equal pay for equal work, as well as the “Living Room Project,” which can identify at-risk individuals and prevent the further spread of the opioid crisis. He also highlights the need to legalize cannabis, endorse labor unions, and support LGBTQ rights.

Finally, Becker is running on a campaign of single-payer healthcare, a $15 minimum wage, green jobs, an end to private prisons, and the legalization of cannabis.

The race has been defined by which elected officials are endorsing which candidates. Rep. Mary Lou Marzian, perhaps the most progressive member of the House caucus, is backing Wilner. Rep. Attica Scott, Al Gentry, and Jeff Donohue are backing Becker. Meanwhile, Walker has received endorsements from the Democratic State Senators from Louisville.

Becker has raised $53K and spent $44K. Wilner has spent $57K and spent $28K and Walker has raised $19K and spent $9K. Small advantage to Wilner.

Whoever wins the Democratic primary will be favored over Republican Donna Lawlor in the general election.

Likely D.

Kentucky State House District 36

2012 President: Romney 67%, Obama 32%
2014 Senate: McConnell 64%, Grimes 34%
2015 Governor: Bevin 60%, Conway 38%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 56%, Grimes 44%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 57%, Beshear 43%
2016 President: Trump 59%, Clinton 36%

This district is located in the dark red suburbs of east Louisville – Eastwood, Fisherville, and Lake Forest. The district also includes some areas in wealthy Oldham County, near Pewee Valley.

The incumbent Republican is Jerry T. Miller. Miller has been a solid fiscal conservative issues, supporting right-to-work, pension reform, and governmental accountability.

There is a Democratic primary between engineer Jeff Grammer, John Thomas Miller Jr., and businessman and former state official Maurice Sweeney.

Grammer is focusing on better funding for infrastructure and green spaces, new revenue streams for pensions, pay equity for women, and initiatives to support clean air. The AFL-CIO has endorsed Grammer.

Sweeney is focusing on investing in better infrastructure, finding new sources of revenue to fund teacher salaries, ending gerrymandering, letting voters decide on marijuana legalization, making unions more inclusive, and enacting reasonable gun restrictions.

Grammer has raised $3K and spent $2K, Miller has raised and spent nothing, and Sweeney has raised $4K and spent $2K.

As voters move out of urban Lexington and into suburban and exurban areas, this district will continue to grow. In another decade or so, it could become more Democratic like the rest of Louisville, but for now, Miller should be fine. Likely R.

Kentucky State House District 40

2012 President: Obama 68%, Romney 31%
2014 Senate: Grimes 68%, McConnell 29%
2015 Governor: Conway 69%, Bevin 28%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 74%, Knipper 26%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 75%, Westerfield 25%
2016 President: Clinton 64%, Trump 31%

This district is located in the working class areas of west and southwest Louisville. The representative is liberal Democrat Dennis Horlander. Horlander has focused on election reform, consumer protection, and child support in the state legislature.

Horlander faces a primary from businessman Logan Gatti, union president Kelly Gibson, and Nina Kulkarni, an immigration and employment law attorney.

Horlander has had several back surgeries, so has not been able to campaign at all over the past few weeks. That has allowed his opponents, particularly Gibson, to argue that the district needs someone new.

Kulkarni is focusing on her role as a lawyer for immigrants and disadvantaged individuals while Gatti is emphasizing how the skills that he has learned as a businessman can be applicable to politics. Gatti supports organized labor, wants to expand Medicaid, and wants to expand renewable energy projects. Kulkarni also supports comprehensive healthcare and a living wage.

Horlander has raised $24K and spent $25K. Kulkarni has raised $40K and spent $11K. Gibson has raised $0 and spent $0 and Gatti has raised $14K and spent $12K. Because Horlander has been off the campaign trail, this might be a race where the incumbent goes down on election night. However, in a low-turnout primary, Horlander’s name recognition could carry the day.

Republican Josh Neubert awaits in the general election. He stands no chance in this Safe D seat.

Kentucky State House District 42

2012 President: Obama 86%, Romney 13%
2014 Senate: Grimes 87%, McConnell 11%
2015 Governor: Conway 85%, Bevin 11%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 90%, Knipper 10%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 90%, Westerfield 10%
2016 President: Clinton 84%, Trump 11%

This district stretches from West End through areas directly east of downtown. It is the most Democratic district in the state.

Reginald Meeks, one of the most liberal members of the State House, is seeking reelection. He faces unknown Democrat Matt Osborne in the primary. Meeks should easily dispatch Osborne, and then dispatch businesswoman, community activist and Republican Judy Stallard in the general.. Safe D.

Kentucky State House District 43

2012 President: Obama 76%, Romney 23%
2014 Senate: Grimes 73%, McConnell 26%
2015 Governor: Conway 72%, Bevin 25%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 77%, Knipper 23%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 78%, Westerfield 22%
2016 President: Clinton 74%, Trump 22%

This district begins in Louisville’s African American West End and goes east along the Ohio River to take in the areas of downtown, areas around KFC Stadium, and some white (conservative) areas east of downtown.

Incumbent Democrat Darryl Owens, a beloved member of the black community in Kentucky, is retiring after 7 terms. Owens was the first black man elected to county office in Jefferson County all the way back in 1983. Owens spent most of his career focused on voting rights, criminal justice reform, and public education.

The retirement of Owens has left local politicians excited about filling a rare open State House seat. There are no less than seven Democrats in contention to replace Owens: real estate agent Phil Baker, policy analyst Charles Booker, attorney Jackson Andrews, martial arts instructor Dre Dawson, attorney Mark Mitchell, civil rights activist Kathleen Parks, and attorney Pamela Stevenson. It isn’t worth discussing the policy differences between the seven – they all are running as liberal Democrats.

There is some concern among black politicians that the black vote in West Louisville could be split among six black candidates allowing Andrews, the one white Democrat to win. This race is too complicated to even guess who might win.

Republicans have a primary between Everett Corley and Denise Raine. Corley is known for opposing the removal of confederate statues.

This district is one of the safest in the state for Democrats, and whoever wins the Democratic primary should be favored in November. Safe D.

Kentucky State House District 50

2012 President: Romney 58%, Obama 41%
2014 Senate: McConnell 51%, Grimes 46%
2015 Governor: Bevin 48%, Conway 48%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 56%, Knipper 44%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 54%, Westerfield 46%
2016 President: Trump 65%, Clinton 31%

This district is located in Nelson County, Kentucky. The county seat is Bardstown, which is known for its Catholic heritage, its historic district, its distilleries, and its agricultural industry.

Republican Chad McCoy is in his first term. McCoy has had an unremarkable, but conservative first term, with the exception of when he broke from the rest of his caucus and opposed a bill to make it harder to sue doctors and hospitals (because It would create another government agency). McCoy also spearheaded the charge to allow licensed retailers to sell vintage distilled spirits.

There is a Democratic primary to take on McCoy. The candidates are 2016 candidate James DeWeese and project engineer Kory Miller. Miller is running on a progressive platform, which seems to not be a good idea in this district (though there are a lot of economically liberal, pro-union, socially conservative Democrats here). The two disagree on cigarette taxes (DeWeese against, Miller for), gambling (DeWeese for, Miller against), abortion (DeWeese against, Miller for), and marijuana (Miller supports legalizing recreational marijuana; DeWeese says he wants to study it more).

Miller has not raised a single dime while DeWeese has raised $24K and spent $1K, outraising even McCoy. Advantage DeWeese.

General election: Despite being a district where Democrats can do very well (see 2015 SoS and AG), McCoy easily beat DeWeese by 28 points in 2016. Can anti-Bevin backlash and teachers protests bring voters back to the Democrartic Party? We will have to see.

For now, Lean R.

Kentucky State House District 60

2012 President: Romney 71%, Obama 27%
2014 Senate: McConnell 69%, Grimes 27%
2015 Governor: Bevin 68%, Conway 29%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 68%, Grimes 32%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 63%, Beshear 37%
2016 President: Trump 69%, Clinton 25%

We now head north to the Ohio River counties, one of the most Republican areas in the state of Kentucky. This district is located in Boone County, the home of several large aerospace businesses and DHL Express, a large German logistics company.

The representative here is Republican Sal Santoro, who is very conservative.

There is a Democratic primary between retired special education teacher Roger Rankin and sales manager Jesse Parks. Rankin is campaigning against charter schools and right-to-work while Parks is campaigning on keeping promises to public employees, and other liberal causes.

Parks has raised $4K while Rankin has raised nothing. Advantage Parks.

Either one is pretty much guaranteed to lose to Santoro come November.

Safe R.

Kentucky State House District 61

2012 President: Romney 68%, Obama 30%
2014 Senate: McConnell 66%, Grimes 30%
2015 Governor: Bevin 62%, Conway 34%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 61%, Grimes 39%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 59%, Beshear 41%
2016 President: Trump 74%, Clinton 22%

This district is in part of the Bluegrass region in rural northern Kentucky. The district is mainly agricultural, and includes Ark Encounter, a Christian fundamentalist theme park.

The incumbent Republican is Brian Linder. Linder was one of the Republicans named in the sexual harassment case involving former Speaker Hoover last year. He chose to retire.

There is a Republican primary between Dr. Michael Fletcher and political organizer Savannah Maddox. Maddox is running as a Thomas Massie style candidate and has been endorsed by the NRA. Maddox emphasizes being pro-life, pro-2^nd amendment and supporter of religious liberty on her campaign page. She appears to be behind the Bevin pension bill and also wants to reduce government spending. Fletcher is emphasizing his local roots as a small business owner and a teacher and has been endorsed by Kentucky Right to Life.

Fletcher has raised $23K and spent nearly all of it. Maddox has raised $15K and spent $8K. Fletcher comes from Kenton County, which has more registered Republicans than Grant County (still has a lot of conservative Democrats). But Kenton County often has horrible turnout. I wouldn’t be surprised if either candidate wins.

There is a Democratic primary between high school guidance counselor Susan Back and former Grant County Judge-Executive Darrell Link. Link is union-backed and is highlighting his track record of balancing budgets at the county level without tax increases. He was criticized in 2014 for exhibiting aggressive behavior at a fiscal court meeting. Back is emphasizing the need to find new revenue sources to fund public education.

Link has high enough name recognition that I would be very surprised if he does not win. He has raised $19K and spent $14K while Back has only raised $3K and spent $2K. Link also comes from Grant County, where there are more conservative Democrats. Back comes from Kenton, where there are more registered Republicans. Advantage Link.

Ten years ago, this election would have been competitive. It would have been a question whether conservative Democrats in rural Grant County would outvote Republicans in rural Kenton County (which every year is becoming more exurban as the Cincinnati suburbs creep south). Nowadays, Republicans tend to dominate in this region. Link may have some residual name recognition and popularity in Grant County, but he was only able to win by 2 points when he was last on the ballot for Judge Executive in 2010. And a Democrat needs to win by a lot more to offset the huge margins Republicans will get out of Kenton.

Likely R, bordering on Safe R.

Kentucky State House District 62

2012 President: Romney 61%, Obama 37%
2014 Senate: McConnell 56%, Grimes 40%
2015 Governor: Bevin 52%, Conway 43%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 51%, Knipper 49%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 50%, Beshear 50%
2016 President: Trump 64%, Clinton 31%

This district is located northwest of Lexington, stretching from some exurban areas in Fayette County through the town of Georgetown and rural horse farms in the “Bluegrass region.” This area has seen incredible economic (and population) growth over the past few decades, largely thanks to the Toyota Motor Manufacturing Factory in Georgetown.

Scott County is a mix of Republicans and Democrats, while Owen County is a traditional rural county controlled by Democrats. The two Fayette County precincts have a slight lean towards the Democrats.

Republican Phil Pratt is the representative for this district. Pratt is a well known landscaper in the area and has assembled a very conservative record throughout his first term in the State House. As a small businessman, Pratt is particularly interested in reducing regulations and government bureaucracy.

Two Democrats are fighting for the right to take on Pratt in the general election. They are Jennifer Urie and Adam Sovkoplas. Urie is a social studies teacher while there is very little information available on Sovkoplas. Urie should take her native Owen County while Sovkoplas will take the few precincts located in Lexington. The real question is who will win Scott County. For now, I give a slight advantage to Urie, who has raised $8K compared to Sovkoplas who has raised $4K.

The general election will be tough for Democrats. Agriculture Commissioner Ryan Quarles held this seat through 2015. Democrat Chuck Tackett briefly held this seat in 2016, but Tackett won with extremely low turnout in a March special election. This area is very focused on economic issues, and so I guess it is a possible candidate for Bevin backlash.

But I’d still bet my money on Pratt. Likely R.

Kentucky House District 69

2012 President: Romney 59%, Obama 39%
2014 Senate: McConnell 59%, Grimes 37%
2015 Governor: Bevin 57%, Conway 38%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 58%, Grimes 42%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 53%, Beshear 47%
2016 President: Trump 59%, Clinton 34%

This district is located in parts of Boone and Kenton County in northern Kentucky. This area has seen a rapid explosion in population over the last decade and consists of automobile manufacturing, retail, and suburban homes.

The representative is Republican Adam Koenig. Koenig has compiled a very conservative voting record in the House, and received criticism last year when he introduced legislation to strip first responders of worker compensation benefits. Koenig has also been a supporter of legalizing casinos to provide revenue for Kentucky’s pension system.

There is a Democratic primary for the right to take on Koenig. The choices are teacher and track coach Ryan Neaves and former Kenton County Democratic Chairman Col Owens. Neaves is emphasizing his newness to politics while Owens is focused on repealing the charter school law, maintaining the current pension plan, continuing the expansion of Medicaid, and expanding apprenticeship programs. Owens has raised $27K and spent $14K while Neaves has raised and spent no money.

The winner of the Democratic primary will have a difficult time defeating Koenig in November. This is a Republican district and substantial number of GOP voters would need to stay home for the Democrat to win. Safe R.

Kentucky House District 71

2012 President: Romney 76%, Obama 23%
2014 Senate: McConnell 69%, Grimes 27%
2015 Governor: Bevin 68%, Conway 28%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 61%, Grimes 39%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 66%, Beshear 34%
2016 President: Trump 77%, Clinton 19%

This district is located where the Bluegrass region, the Mississippi Plateau and the Cumberland Plateau come together. It encompasses Garrard County, Rockcastle County, and the parts of Madison County west of Richmond. The region is home to outdoor recreational opportunities and the Kentucky Music Hall of Fame.

The incumbent Republican is House Majority Leader Jonathan Shell. Shell obtained his position by running the 2016 campaign to capture the House majority. He has amassed a very conservative voting record and is widely regarded by Mitch McConnell and state Republican leaders.

Shell does face a primary from Rockcastle County High School math teacher R. Travis Brenda. Brenda is angry about Shell’s vote for the pension bill and Shell’s vote for tax reform, specifically the new 6% sales tax applied to various services. Shell has raised $131K, allowing him to spend money on tv ads. Brenda does not have money for tv ads, but has amassed a following on social media.

Shell has high name recognition and works his district well so I expect him to win on Tuesday. He will face real estate agent and Madison County Schools Board member Mary Renfro in the general election. Renfro is exceedingly unlikely to win in this Safe R seat.

Kentucky House District 73

2012 President: Romney 65%, Obama 33%
2014 Senate: McConnell 58%, Grimes 38%
2015 Governor: Bevin 56%, Conway 40%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 51%, Knipper 49%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 53%, Beshear 47%
2016 President: Trump 67%, Clinton 28%

This district takes in Clark County and the northern areas of Madison County (in the Bluegrass region) This district is primarily agricultural, growing hemp and even some tobacco, though areas of Winchester, the county seat, have an industrial base.

Incumbent Republican Donna Mayfield is retiring, leaving business owner Les Yates as the only Republican on the ticket.

There is a Democratic primary between artist and environmental activist Pat Banks and 2016 U.S. Senate candidate Rory Houlihan. Banks wants to invest in teachers, focus on the arts community in the region, and support family farmers working ot achieve farm to table. She also wants to put more emphasis on the first steps of seeking treatment for the opioid crisis. Houlihan wants to repeal right-to-work, reinstate prevailing wage, and implement campaign finance reform.

Banks has raised $2K and spent $1K while Houlihan has raised nothing and spent nothing. Advantage Banks.

This is a tough seat for Democrats, and would likely be competitive if everything goes wrong for Republicans. Likely R.

Kentucky House District 74

2012 President: Romney 61%, Obama 37%
2014 Senate: McConnell 51%, Grimes 45%
2015 Governor: Bevin 54%, Conway 42%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 57%, Knipper 43%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 50%, Westerfield 50%
2016 President: Trump 70%, Clinton 27%

This district is located east of Lexington in Montgomery, Menifee, and Powell County. The area has a lot of conservative Democrats, who have historically supported unions.

The incumbent is sophomore Republican David Hale. Hale has been a moderate Republican, and has been especially pro-union. He opposed prevailing wage repeal, opposed telephone deregulation, opposed the recent tax bill, opposed charter school legislation promoted by the Republican leadership, but did back the recent pension bill that has sparked so much controversy.

There is a Democratic primary to oppose Hale. 2016 candidate and lawyer James Davis will face off against businessman Brian Derickson. Davis comes from a more populated county and likely has higher name recognition than Derickson. Both candidates are running on fiscally liberal platforms, which is common for this area of rural Kentucky that is full of old school Democrats. The two have raised about $4K each. Advantage Davis.

The general will be tough. Hale has proven to be very popular in his home county of Menifee, meaning Davis or Derickson will need to run up the margin in the rest of the district. Hale has also been able to set himself apart from other more conservative Republicans in the state legislature and focus on constituent services. However, voters could be willing to come to Democrats if Davis or Derickson can make the argument that Republicans abandoned the working class with pension legislation, right-to-work and a repeal of the prevailing wage. In other words, the Bevin backlash could hit if the conditions are right.

Tilt R.

Kentucky House District 81

2012 President: Romney 56%, Obama 42%
2014 Senate: McConnell 51%, Grimes 45%
2015 Governor: Bevin 49%, Conway 47%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 57%, Knipper 43%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 53%, Westerfield 47%
2016 President: Trump 54%, Clinton 39%

This district is located east of Lexington, taking in the city of Richmond and surrounding area. Richmond has seen growth in recent years, thanks to a commercial and residential boom in the eastern Bluegrass.

The incumbent Republican is C. Wesley Morgan. Morgan has a horrible relationship with state party leaders, after being one of the first members to call on Speaker Hoover to resign. Morgan has also attracted criticism for introducing liquor bills that may benefit his own business. Morgan is running for reelection on the theme of trying to clean up corruption and defeat the “good old boys” that run Frankfort. Morgan voted for almost all conservative legislation in 2017, including repeal of prevailing wage, right-to-work, pro-life bills, and charter schools. He did vote against tax reform and the pension bill this year.

Morgan faces a Republican primary challenge from audiologist Deanna Frazier. Frazier is campaigning on the idea that Morgan’s opposition to GOP leadership in Frankfort has impeded his ability to do good things for the district (Republican leadership routinely refuses to allow votes on Morgan’s bills).

Morgan has raised $19K and Frazier has raised $18K. This primary could go either way and state Republicans will not be unhappy if Morgan loses.

Richmond City Commissioner and Democrat Morgan Eaves awaits in the general election. Eaves has already raised $48K and is an Emerge Kentucky graduate. She wants to find new revenue streams to fund pensions. She wants to invest in Berea College and Eastern Kentucky University in Madison County, and has highlighted her local work advocating for new community buildings.

Morgan’s win in 2016 was a surprise. Eaves is one of the strongest Democratic challengers, and if she continues to beat the Republican in money raised, she stands a good chance at winning. The educational institutions in the district also makes this area a prime area for backlash against Republican bills on pensions, taxes, and right-to-work. If Democrats can’t win here, they won’t be gaining seats on election night.

Tossup.

Kentucky House District 82

2012 President: Romney 79%, Obama 20%
2014 Senate: McConnell 71%, Grimes 26%
2015 Governor: Bevin 70%, Conway 26%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 65%, Grimes 35%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 70%, Beshear 30%
2016 President: Trump 82%, Clinton 15%

This district is located in Whitley and Laurel County in South-central Kentucky. It is the first district that we come to that is within the Cumberland Plateau. Whitley County is known for its recreational opportunities in the Daniel Boone National Forest.

The incumbent is Republican Regina Bunch Huff. Huff has amassed a very conservative voting record in the House, but did vote against the pension bill (perhaps because she is a teacher). She did vote for the charter schools legislation, which is what caused teacher Matthew Anderson to announce his candidacy for the Republican nomination. Besides from education, the opioid crisis has been a big issue in this district. Huff has highlighted her support for wrap-around services for substance abuse programs

Huff has raised $12K while Anderson has raised $11K. Advantage to Huff in a low-turnout primary, but anything is possible.

Whoever wins the Republican primary will easily defeat Democrat Stefanie Kingsley in November.

Safe R.

Kentucky House District 86

2012 President: Romney 78%, Obama 21%
2014 Senate: McConnell 70%, Grimes 28%
2015 Governor: Bevin 70%, Conway 27%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 63%, Grimes 37%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 68%, Beshear 32%
2016 President: Trump 82%, Clinton 15%

This district is located in Knox County and part of Laurel County in east central Kentucky. The area is known for its coal mining and outdoor recreation.

The Republican is incumbent Jim Stewart, who has served since 1997. Stewart came under scrutiny a few months ago for sexual harassment (something he denied) in 2015. Stewart voted against the controversial pension bill. He faces Don Rose in the primary. Stewart has raised $6K and spent $3K while Rose has raised nothing and spent nothing.

This is a Safe R seat. Stewart should easily beat Debra Payne in November.

Kentucky State House District 88

2012 President: Romney 60%, Obama 38%
2014 Senate: McConnell 56%, Grimes 41%
2015 Governor: Bevin 49%, Conway 46%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 53%, Knipper 47%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 51%, Westerfield 49%
2016 President: Trump 51%, Clinton 42%

This district is located east of Lexington, and includes some suburbs, exurbs, and some areas that are still primarily rural.

Republican Robert Benvenuti is retiring. Three Republicans are running to capture the nomination, including former State Representative Bill Farmer, Lexington attorney Jennifer McVay Martin and Lexington businesswoman Ashley Bruggerman.

Farmer is highlighting his extensive background in developing bipartisan relationships. Farmer is also concerned about Kentucky’s outdated tax system.

Martin is highlighting the need for transparent government. She supports inter-state health insurance, the promotion of nonprofit healthcare solutions, the 2^nd amendment, cutting spending through eliminating waste, enhancing roads and bridges, and promoting the film industry.

Bruggerman is highlighting her record as a businesswoman. She is pro-life, focused on reducing government spending, and supportive of targeted prosecutions for pill mills, efforts to destigmatize drug abuse, and attempts to beat back the secret club of the Kentucky legislature.

Farmer has raised $3K and spent $195. Martin has raised $36K and spent $23K. Bruggerman has raised $26K and spent $4K. In a three-way race, anybody could win. It is notable that Farmer, who may have high name recognition, has not run a strong campaign.

There is also a Democratic primary for this seat. The candidates are Lexington Fairness Chair and small business owner Josh Mers, businesswoman Cherlynn Stevenson, and community activist and professor Gail Swanson.

Mers is a progressive Democrat who entered the race because of assaults on working families and public education. Stevenson has focused on her work with community service while Swanson is concerned about anti-public school legislation coming from the legislature. All three Democrats are running against the tax bill, the pension bill, for expanded Medicaid and renewable energy alternatives. Mers has the advantage as he has raised $34K and is extremely well connected. Stevenson has raised $24K and Swanson has raised $3K.

The general election will be competitive. This area moved away from Republicans in 2016 as socially moderate Republicans were repulsed by Trump. A lot of teachers in this district might be prone to Bevin backlash. If Democrats want to unseat Andy Barr (especially if Jim Gray in the ballot), they will need to win this State House seat. Expect a lot of resources to be put into this race. Tossup, but Democrats have to like their chances.

Kentucky State House District 89

2012 President: Romney 77%, Obama 21%
2014 Senate: McConnell 70%, Grimes 27%
2015 Governor: Bevin 71%, Conway 25%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 65%, Grimes 35%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 69%, Beshear 31%
2016 President: Trump 79%, Clinton 17%

This district covers the lower third of Madison County, all of Jackson County, and parts of Laurel County in east-central Kentucky. The district is primarily rural and is home to parts of the Daniel Boone National Forest.

Incumbent Robert Goforth won a special election in February. He faces Keith Hays, a principal in a Jackson County High School. Goforth has focused a lot of his attention on the drug epidemic, which has devastated his district. He wants to improve infrastructure, find corporations willing to come to the mountains and support public education. Goforth voted against the Republican pension bill. Hays wants to increase treatment facilities and invest in infrastructure.

Goforth has raised $100K while Hays has raised $11K. How entrenched in Goforth? He will do well in Laurel County but Hays should do well in Jackson County. The winner came down to Madison or who is doing better in their home county.

Whoever wins the Republican primary will face Democrat Kelly Smith in November and will easily win. Safe R.

Kentucky State House District 90

2012 President: Romney 84%, Obama 14%
2014 Senate: McConnell 76%, Grimes 21%
2015 Governor: Bevin 74%, Conway 24%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 70%, Grimes 30%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 74%, Beshear 26%
2016 President: Trump 86%, Clinton 12%

This district is located in Leslie, Clay, and part of Laurel County in southeast Kentucky. Like every other district in this region, the main economic drivers are coal and outdoor recreation. This district is incredibly poor and is one of the most Republican seats in Kentucky (even downballot).

The incumbent is Republican Tim Couch. Couch has compiled a very conservative voting record, but he notably voted against the pension reform bill.

Couch is being primaried by Derek Lewis, a small-business owner and entrepreneur. Lewis is a supporter of reduced government spending, fighting against EPA restrictions, diversifying the local economy, promoting tourism, and fiber-optic internet, and expanding drug and alcohol recovery programs and options. Lewis appears to be campaigning hard on the ground.

Lewis has raised $41K and spent $33K while Couch has raised $28K and spent $15K. Lewis should do well in native Laurel County, while Couch will do well in Leslie County. The winner may be decided in Clay County. Advantage to the incumbent Couch, but he could easily lose.

Whoever wins the Republican primary will win the general election. No Democrat filed here.

Kentucky State House District 91

2012 President: Romney 72%, Obama 26%
2014 Senate: McConnell 61%, Grimes 35%
2015 Governor: Bevin 61%, Conway 35%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 53%, Grimes 47%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 58%, Beshear 42%
2016 President: Trump 76%, Clinton 21%

This district is located in the heart of coal country. It begins in coal-dominated, conservative Democrat Breathitt County and moves west to pick up historically Republican areas of impoverished central Kentucky: Lee, Owsley, and Estill. Like most Appalachian districts, this area is known for its outdoor recreation, its drug epidemic and its political corruption.

The incumbent Republican is Toby Herald. Herald represented this district from 2013-2015, and then reclaimed his seat in 2017. He is pro-life and pro-second amendment, and has demonstrated a very conservative voting record in the legislature. Herald recently supported a measure to combine counties and school districts to reduce government spending.

Herald faces a primary challenger from Robert Goe. Goe does not seem to be running a strong campaign and has said he will not be a “yes man” to leadership.

Strong advantage to Herald.

The Democratic primary is between former state Representative Cluster Howard (2015-2017) and Bruce Shouse. Howard is campaigning to repeal right-to-work and charter schools and is against the tax bill and pension bill from earlier this year. His views should play well in this union-heavy district. Howard has also focused on local issues, including the dumping of illegal waste in landfills in Estill County. Howard has raised $16K. Shouse does not appear to be running a campaign.

The general election will be tough. Breathitt County continues to be home to fiscally liberal, conservative Democrats. But the other counties do not have the union or Democratic heritage, meaning they are Republican downballot.

To win, Howard will need everything to go right: he will need a monster margin out of Breathitt, and he will need to cut his losses elswhere in the district. Herald is a notoriously poor incumbent, and so Howard might be able to do just that (especially if he can attack Herald’s support for the pension slide). But on the flip side, Trump is popular here, and voters might be done with the Republican Party.

Lean R.

Kentucky State House District 96

2012 President: Romney 64%, Obama 34%
2014 Senate: McConnell 55%, Grimes 41%
2015 Governor: Bevin 55%, Conway 41%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 52%, Grimes 48%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 51%, Beshear 49%
2016 President: Trump 76%, Clinton 20%

This district is located in Carter and Lawrence County. Coal mining used to be a huge industry here, but Carter is far enough north that it is not as prominent as in other districts.

The representative here is Republican Jill York, the only Republican from rural eastern Kentucky. Democrats tried to redistrict out York in 2013, but she lucked out and got a weak challenger in 2014. York is fiscally liberal, and has been a big supporter of minimum wage increases and an opponent of right-to-work legislation (which hurts union voters in this district). Several major unions have previously endorsed York, including the AFL-CIO. Since the Republicans took control of the majority, York has opposed the pension bill, the tax bill, prevailing wage repeal, pro-smoking legislation, charter schools, and other key legislation.

York faces a primary from school principal Charles Clark, who is also running as a liberal Republican.

York has raised $16K while Clark has not raised or spent any money. Strong Advantage to York.

York is very well entrenched in this seat. She faces political activist Kathy Hinkle in the general election. Hinkle’s husband is well-connected in the Lawrence County Democratic Party. But will that help? Can Hinkle get conservative Democrats to return to the fold? I am doubtful, especially since York is very independent and fiscally liberal (like many of these voters). But if people here decide they are done with Republicans as a whole, they could design to support Hinkle. Lean R.

Kentucky State House District 97

2012 President: Romney 73%, Obama 25%
2014 Senate: McConnell 61%, Grimes 35%
2015 Governor: Bevin 59%, Conway 37%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 54%, Grimes 46%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 56%, Beshear 44%
2016 President: Trump 79%, Clinton 18%

This district takes in Johnson, Morgan, and Wolfe County, all part of the coal country. Like other coal seats, this area has a fiscally liberal, socially conservative, pro-union history.

One-term incumbent William Scott Wells, a Republican, is retiring. The Republican primary is between Bobby McCool and Russell Halsey. McCool is a teacher and administrator who was the Republican nominee for this seat in 2014 and lost 63-37 and the nominee in 2012 and lost 59-41. Halsey is a teacher and administrator and is a strong supporter of public schools. He also wants to prepare rural communities for new jobs, reform the tax code, invest in telecom, water, and other infrastructure and increase funding for the state police.

Halsey has raised $8K and McCool has raised $4K. McCool is from vote rich Johnson County, and may have residual name recognition from past runs. Halsey appears to be running a serious campaign but is from Wolfe County, which is still Democratic downballot. Slight advantage to McCool.

There is also a Democratic primary for this seat between Isaac Allen and Craig Lindon. Allen runs a general contracting business in the construction industry. He is campaigning for term limits, the full funding of public education, and an increase in competition in the rural health insurance market. He is against the Republican pension bill.

Lindon is a retired State employee. He is focused on investing high speed internet and cell phone service, which can help expand the economy in eastern Kentucky.

Allen has raised $8K while Lindon has raised $13K. Lindon should do well in his native Wolfe County while Allen should do well in his native Morgan County. Who gets the bigger margin? Who can get the small amount of Democrats in Johnson County? That will decide who wins.

The general election could be competitive. Democrat Hubert Collins held this seat for thirty years until losing in the 2016 wave. This district is very pro-union and was likely upset by some of the legislation pushed by Matt Bevin (pensions, taxes, charter school legislation etc.) However, voters here continue to be repulsed by the national Democratic Party (this is coal country after all) and like Trump. Likely R. In the outside chance that Democrats can reclaim the majority, look for a victory here.

Kentucky State House District 100

2012 President: Romney 57%, Obama 41%
2014 Senate: McConnell 49%, Grimes 47%
2015 Governor: Bevin 51%, Conway 45%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 55%, Knipper 45%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 55%, Westerfield 45%
2016 President: Trump 66%, Clinton 30%

This district is located in Ashland, Kentucky, one of the largest areas in northeast Kentucky. Historically, Ashland has had a thriving manufacturing center – the 20^th century Ashland played host to oil, steel, chemical, and dyes. Today, AK Steel remains a big employer as does King Daughters Medical Center. Healthcare, in particular, is a growing industry in northeast Kentucky.

Democratic incumbent Kevin Sinnette is retiring to run for a Court of Appeals position. There is a Democratic primary to replace him. The candidates are Terri Branham Clark, a businesswoman and fundraiser, and Ann Brown Perkins, a businesswoman.

Clark is emphasizing her opposition to the Republican pension plan and the need to invest in easy river and rail access to attract more businesses to Ashland. Perkins is emphasizing her ties to community leaders, her support for public education and opposition to the Republican pension bill, the need to invest in infrastructure, the need to provide long-term facilities to deal with opioid addiction, and the need to subsidize fresh, local food.

Clark has raised $18K and spent $15K while Perkins has raised $20K and spent $10K. Either candidate could win.

Whoever wins the Democratic primary will face Ashland Police Sgt. Brian Clark in the general election.

Sinnette won by less than 200 votes in 2016, suggesting that this area (which had previously avoided the realignment seen in coal country) was beginning to realign to Republicans. However, there is still a deep base of union and public education support in this district, and voters here might be upset with the legislation Matt Bevin has pursued over the last two years. Ultimately, whoever works hardest in the community is likely to win.

Tossup.

Kentucky State House District 49 Special Election, 2018

GradyDem

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Saturday February 17, 2018 · 7:32 PM PST

2018/02/17 · 19:32

KY_House_District_49(1).jpg — Outline of Kentucky's 49th State House District. Scroll below for more information about the district and the special election.

Kentucky’s 49^th State House District Special Election

2016 President: Trump 72%, Clinton 23%
2015 Governor: Bevin 56%, Conway 39%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 53%, Grimes 47%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 54%, Beshear 46%
2015 Auditor: Harmon 55%, Edelen 45%
2014 Senate: McConnell 59%, Grimes 38%
2012 President: Romney 66%, Obama 33%

This Tuesday, voters in Kentucky’s 49^th State House District will go to the polls to elect their new state Representative.

The district is located in Bullitt County, just south of Louisville. Bullitt is in the process of transitioning from a predominantly rural agricultural economy to an exurban/suburban economy that is part of the greater Louisville area. In recent years, the district has become a major distribution center. The largest employer is Zappos, an online shoe and clothing shop.

Despite some suburbanization, the district remains poor (when you think of wealthy suburbs in Louisville, think of Oldham County, not Bullitt). As the Kentucky Center for Investigative Reporting (KYCIR) explained, “the percentage of adults with a college degree is less than half the national average.” The KYCIR also noted that “it is not uncommon to see Confederate flags hanging from poles, porches and barns” in the county.

The seat is vacant because of the suicide of former Representative Dan Johnson.

Johnson was first elected in November 2016, as Kentucky Republicans were claiming the majority of the State House for the first time in 95 years. Johnson’s campaign against incumbent Democrat Linda Belcher was extremely nasty. Johnson claimed that Belcher had sent Chicago thugs after him and had road blocked and ambushed his truck. Johnson also said that Belcher had personally killed 80,000 babies. Mac Brown, the chair of the state party, disowned Johnson, and refused to support him after it was revealed that he had compared a photo of President Obama to a chimpanzee.

Belcher tried to focus on her positive attributes, especially her history of bringing money back into the community. Her website noted her extensive community service work as well.

In the end, Belcher’s attempts to localize the race were not enough. The Republican wave arrived in Kentucky, and Belcher lost 50.4%-49.6%.

In the state legislature, Johnson developed a close relationship with C. Wesley Morgan, a Republican from Madison County. Like Johnson, Morgan had been elected without a lot of interest from the state Republican Party. Johnson also developed a conservative voting record, as Republicans, led by Jeff Hoover, began enacting an agenda they had long sought: charter schools, right-to-work, prevailing wage repeal, abortion restrictions etc.

Then, in December 2017, the KYCIR released a bombshell report about Johnson. Among the many interesting parts of Johnson’s past: he molested a 17-year old girl on New Year’s Eve in 2012, committed arson to collect insurance, was possibly involved in another arson case with his church, was cited at least three times by Alcohol Beverage Control officers, and was involved in a number of different lies, including that he had served as a United Nations ambassador and White House chaplain to three presidents. He was also the pastor who had gave last rites for people who died at the World Trade Center on September 11^th.

Johnson gave a press conference a day after the article came out and denied all of the allegations. But a day after that, he committed suicide with a gun. The state party never endorsed Johnson in 2016. Matt Bevin called Johnson an embarrassment to the state, but notably was not as direct about asking him to resign as he was for four other state House Republicans accused of sexual harassment (notably former Speaker Jeff Hoover).

After Johnson’s death, his wife, Rebecca, stepped in to be a candidate, with the intent of carrying on her husband’s legacy. Johnson has made controversial remarks in the same manner as her husband. She has made light of drug use and domestic violence, used profanity to describe refugees, and lied about how many employees she managed at a job at Louisville Airport. But she has promised to continue to vote for conservative legislation, which has earned her donations from powerful Louisville State Senator Dan Seum and House Speaker Pro Tempore (and de facto Speaker) David Osborne. Her campaign is also being run by David Adams, who led Rand Paul’s primary campaign in 2010.

Johnson’s campaign has been fairly low key, with an emphasis on getting her message out via Facebook. She’s skipped several debates and has focused on one of her husband’s main issues, which was a bill to make it illegal for computers to be sold without a pornography blocker. Johnson has taken a few other notable positions: she is opposed to Governor Bevin’s pension reform plan (discussed a little bit more below) and has expressed support for medical marijuana as a way to end the opioid crisis.

On the Democratic side, former State Representative and teacher Linda Belcher is back for another run. Belcher was first elected to the State House in 2008 after the incumbent (her husband), Larry Belcher, died in a car accident. During the Obama administration, rural Kentucky voters gradually realigned to the Republican Party. As Bullitt County became more exurban, the region started to lose its rural Democratic heritage. Belcher managed to win her first regular election in 2008 with 54%, her second election in 2010 with 50.3%, lost her third election in 2012 with 47%, won her fourth election in 2014 with 53%, and lost her fifth election in 2016 with 49.6%.

After trying to ignore Johnson’s history of controversial comments, Belcher has been more open to criticizing her opponent this time around. She is counting on name recognition and has also built a robust GOTV operation. Belcher has received help from Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes and Steve Beshear and will receive help from Minority Leader Rocky Adkins in the closing days of the campaign.

On the policy front, Belcher has highlighted her support for abortion rights as well as the need to invest in infrastructure and opioid addiction treatment programs. She has also talked about previous legislation she sponsored to rework wastewater treatment plant regulations and give students suicide prevention information.

Belcher is also hoping that a backlash against the KY-GOP will help her. While the state continues to trend to the right, the State House Republicans have had a very difficult beginning to the 2018 session. During the first few weeks, the caucus was bogged down trying to decide what to do about the Jeff Hoover sexual harassment scandal. The caucus has also struggled to come up with a pension reform bill that they have been promising for some time (the bill has already created a lot of opposition among teachers, who are running as both Democrats and Republicans in record numbers). Matt Bevin’s budget cuts (especially to education) have also sparked some criticism across the state.

So who wins?

Special elections are inherently low turnout affairs. And sometimes the most committed partisans in this state are Democrats. In March 2016, Kentucky hosted 4 State House specials. The State House was teetering on the edge, with 50 Democrats and 46 Republicans. In a huge shock (only predicted by Greg Stumbo), Democrats held onto their two open seats by comfortable margins and actually picked up a Republican seat. Democrats used those victories as rationales for why they would ultimately keep the State House in November (of course, that didn’t happen).

Belcher is also very well known in the district, since she’s been on the ballot since 2008. But there could also be some sympathy votes for Rebecca Johnson, especially considering the libertarian-conservative orientation of this district. Johnson may win simply because rural Kentucky continues to trend towards the Republican Party.

Belcher has raised $36,000 and spent $6,000 while Johnson has raised $7,000 and spent $3,000 (though all of these numbers are from January, and don’t reflect recent donations).

It is unclear whether the Secretary of State will be reporting the results by precinct on Tuesday. If they are, here’s what to watch for:

Johnson needs to do well in Mount Washington and the rural areas east of Hebron Estates and Hillview.
Belcher’s strength will come in Shepherdsville, the main town in this district, which is actually divided into two. Belcher will do well in the northern part of Shepherdsville (the area closer to Louisville). If she wants to win, she’ll need to do well in the southern portion of the district (A111, D104, A101, D113, D114). She’ll also need to win the rural areas directly south of Shepherdsville.

To follow along, it might be helpful to look at DKE’s interactive KY House map from a few years ago.

Kentucky House Preview: A Swan Song for the Democratic Party?

GradyDem

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Wednesday November 02, 2016 · 9:15 AM PDT

2016/11/02 · 09:15

Kentucky House District Ratings. Dark Red = Safe R, Red/Pink = Likely R, Light Pink = Lean R, Gray = Tossup, Aqua = Lean D, Medium Blue = Likely D, Dark Blue = Safe D

In a few weeks, voters will go to the polls to determine which party will control the Kentucky House of Representatives. The Democrats have controlled the chamber since 1921, and are clinging to a 53-47 majority over the Republicans.

The stakes for this election could not be higher. If Republicans gain the chamber, experts predict that they will pass a number of anti-abortion bills, repeal the prevailing wage, implement right to work and implement Matt Bevin’s conservative budget reforms (including cuts to education and changes to the state pension system). Republicans are hoping that their massive candidate recruitment process, better fundraising, and the presence of Donald Trump at the top of the ballot (who is very popular in the rural areas) will result in them being able to claim the majority.

Democrats are hoping to maintain their majority. Despite a massive swing to the right in Appalachia, Democrats have only lost 5 seats in the Kentucky State House since 2010. Democrats are also riding high after 3 unexpectedly large wins in special State House elections earlier this year. Democrats have a well-oiled party machine run by Greg Stumbo and Sannie Overly, get perennially lucky from weak Republican recruits and know their districts and constituents well.

Most Kentucky journalists believe that this is finally the year where Republicans will win the House. In private, Republicans are extremely enthusiastic about their candidates in Eastern Kentucky (less so, elsewhere). Both parties acknowledge that many State House races won’t be decided until the final weekend of the campaign and some even think that voters lie to pollsters on local races because they worry that who they are voting for will get back to their neighbors.

This diary previews all 100 races, noting specific seats to watch on both the Democratic and Republican sides. As of now, there appears to be:

23 Safe D
11 Likely D
6 Lean D
16 Tossup
2 Lean R
9 Likely R
33 Safe R

The map above gives an overview of where each race is rated. Gray is Tossup. The darker the blue or red, the safer for the respective party.

Kentucky State House District 1

Candidates: Incumbent Steven Jack Rudy (R-Paducah) vs. Michael R. Murphy (D-Paducah)

2012 President: Romney 70%, Obama 28%
2014 Senate: McConnell 66%, Grimes 32%
2015 Governor: Bevin 61%, Conway 36%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 57%, Grimes 43%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 56%, Beshear 44%

We start in the far western part of the Kentucky, also known as Jackson Purchase. This area’s economy is connected mainly to agriculture and to Kentucky Lake. In the 19^th and early 20^th century, this region of Kentucky was closely connected with the rest of the South – cotton plantations dominated the economy and there were attempts at secession, lynchings and racial violence.

For years, the area has been home to one of the strongest local Democratic Parties in the nation. Kentucky Democrats used to know this area as the “Gibraltar of Democracy” and the local newspaper was regularly labeled the Paducah Sun-Democrat for its endorsement of Democratic causes.

That Democratic legacy has broken apart in the last ten to fifteen years, as Republicans have assumed the mantle of the more conservative party, especially on social issues. In recent years, Democratic Party strength has begun to break apart, even at the local level.

The representative here is Republican Steven Jack Rudy, a 38-year old agribusiness owner. Rudy is a fairly standard conservative: pro-gun, pro-life, against raising the minimum wage, against increasing the sales tax, and against instituting a smoking ban. He has supported conforming to Obama’s “Race to the Top” program, has supported felony record expungement, and has opposed increasing campaign donation limits. His lifetime ACU rating is only 50%.

Rudy has had his fair share of luck in the last few cycles. He has not faced a Democratic candidate since 2010, despite his district remaining deep blue downballot. This year, Greg Stumbo is targeting Rudy for defeat. The Democrat here is former McCracken County Attorney Mike Murphy. Murphy’s campaign is focused on jobs, education and veteran affairs.

Geographically, this district is broken down between the four Mississippi River counties and more exurban McCracken County. Rudy’s home base has always been in McCracken, but Murphy is from there too. If Murphy can hold down Rudy’s margins there and also do well in the rural Mississippi River counties, he could pull off an upset.

Murphy has raised $40K, spent $29K and has $11K in the bank. Rudy has raised $45K, spent $36K and has $10K in the bank.

Can Murphy beat the fundamentals, which are tilting further and further to the Republicans? We will see. Likely R.

Kentucky State House District 2

Candidates: Incumbent Richard Heath (R-Mayfield) vs. Jesse Wright (D-Mayfield)

2012 President: Romney 70%, Obama 28%
2014 Senate: McConnell 65%, Grimes 32%
2015 Governor: Bevin 61%, Conway 36%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 57%, Grimes 43%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 59%, Beshear 41%

This district is located in Graves County, Kentucky and is home to the yearly Fancy Farm Picnic. Like State House District 1, this area has a long history of supporting Democrats, is slowly moving towards Republicans even at the downballot level and is primarily rural and agricultural.

The representative is Republican Richard Heath. Heath ran and failed to win the nomination for Kentucky Agriculture Commissioner in 2015. He is very popular among both Democrats and Republicans in his district. Politically, Heath is a fairly standard conservative on big issues. However, he only has an ACU rating of 58%, in part because of his votes to increase the sales tax, comply with Race to the Top, and prohibit brewers from owning a distributorship.

Jesse Wright is the Democrat here. He is campaigning on the need to change Kentucky’s political leaders and to prevent the implementation of right to work (which Heath supports). Wright faced Heath in 2014 and lost 59-41. There is no reason to think he’ll do any better as this district continues to zoom to the right.

Safe R.

Kentucky State House District 3

Candidates: Incumbent Gerald Watkins (D-Paducah) vs. Joni Hogancamp (R-Paducah)

2012 President: Romney 58%, Obama 42%
2014 Senate: McConnell 56%, Grimes 42%
2015 Governor: Bevin 53%, Conway 44%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 51%, Grimes 49%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 50%, Beshear 50%

The representative is Gerald Watkins, a Democrat. Watkins is a fiscally moderate, socially conservative Democrat. He is pro-gun and pro-life but supports in-person absentee voting, increasing the minimum wage, and union-backed legislation.

The Republican here is Businesswoman Joni Hogancamp. Hogancamp has extensive community involvement like Watkins and is running on a platform of opposing government regulations, and supporting pro-growth policies.

Watkins is known as a poor fundraiser, which is not a good quality to have since this district is very competitive. Watkins won 54-46 in 2014. This time around, Senator McConnell has already endorsed Joni Hogancamp.

Can Watkins win? His latest financial report has not been posted. But as of early October, he had raised $41K, spent $6K and has $34K left in the bank. Hogancamp has not reported since early October, but earlier this months he had raised 442K, spent $26K and had $16K in the bank.

Geographically, Watkins should carry the “urban” part of Paducah while Hogancamp should win the blood red exurbs of Paducah. Republicans view this race as a major target, but enthusiasm here has declined as Republicans have moved towards targeting Eastern Kentucky races. Tossup.

Kentucky State House District 4

Candidates: Incumbent Lynn Belcher (R-Marion)

2012 President: Romney 70%, Obama 29%
2014 Senate: McConnell 64%, Grimes 32%
2015 Governor: Bevin 62%, Conway 35%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 58%, Grimes 42%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 62%, Beshear 38%

The incumbent, Lynn Belcher, was first elected in 2012. Historically, this seat has been Democratic, but Belcher has become entrenched pretty quickly. He is unchallenged this year.

Kentucky State House District 5

Candidates: Incumbent Kenneth Churchill Imes (R-Murray) vs. David Ramey (D-Murray)

2012 President: Romney 64%, Obama 35%
2014 Senate: McConnell 60%, Grimes 37%
2015 Governor: Bevin 55%, Conway 42%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 52%, Grimes 48%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 53%, Beshear 47%

This district is located in Calloway County and Trigg County. The big “town” here is Murray, which is anchored by Murray State University (and various cultural institutions associated with the university) Historically, the rural areas of the district had a tobacco-based economy.

The representative here is Kenneth Churchill Imes, a Republican who ran for Treasurer in 2015. Imes served one term as a Democrat back in the 1970s and is widely popular because of his work within the community.

The Democrat is David Ramey, a businessman who owns an insurance agency and also works at Murray State University. He has been active in local politics and has led the county party.

Both candidates are running on pretty standard platforms for rural Kentucky. Ramey is making his opposition to right-to-work and his support for the prevailing wage a central part of his campaign. Imes has highlighted his interest in financial issues and the need to reform the pension system. He is a pretty standard conservative.

Imes has raised $78K, spent $65K and has $13K left in the bank. Ramey has raised $23K, spent $21K and has $1K in the bank.

Because of rural Kentucky’s move away from Democrats and Imes’ popularity, I put this race at Likely R.

Kentucky State House District 6

Candidates: Incumbent Will Coursey (D-Symsonia) vs. Paula Robinson (R-Benton)

2012 President: Romney 66%, Obama 32%
2014 Senate: McConnell 60%, Grimes 37%
2015 Governor: Bevin 54%, Conway 43%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 51%, Grimes 49%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 50%, Westerfield 50%

Will Coursey is the last Democrat to represent rural agricultural Western Kentucky. He has served in his seat since 2008.

After a string of successes in Western Kentucky in 2010 and 2012, Republicans turned to Coursey in 2014. They believed he was uniquely vulnerable because of a sex scandal. So Republicans recruited hospital administrator Keith Travis. But Coursey was a workhorse, raising tons of money, airing tv aids, crisscrossing his district and touting endorsements from Steve Beshear and others. Every conservative group who was playing in the Kentucky House races tried to help Travis, and hit Coursey on the gas tax, Obamacare and the state pension crisis.

In the end, this race was a statewide embarrassment for the Republican Party. Coursey won in a landslide (by 13 points).

This year, Coursey faces teacher Paula Robinson, who is running on a pretty standard conservative platform and has been endorsed by Mitch McConnell and Rand Paul.

Coursey’s campaign has been a little slow to start, but he is likely to spend time emphasizing the fact that he is now chair of the Veterans Committee in Frankfort. Coursey has raised $39K, spent $2K and has $47K in the bank. Robinson has raised $6K, spent $3K and has $3K in the bank.

Where does this race stand? Coursey is running in an area that continues to trend towards the Republican Party. For the first time in history, Marshall County elected a Republican County Judge Executive in 2015. But Coursey remains popular and his 2014 victory shows he is not going to go away quietly. Moreover, when Republicans announced their list of most competitive races for the fall, this one was not present. No outside groups have gotten involved in this race, even though fundamentals suggest this one will be close. Tossup.

Kentucky State House District 7

Candidates: Incumbent Suzanne Miles (R-Owensboro) vs. Joy Gray (D-Owensboro)

2012 President: Romney 64%, Obama 35%
2014 Senate: McConnell 61%, Grimes 37%
2015 Governor: Bevin 54%, Conway 43%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 52%, Knipper 48%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 54%, Westerfield 46%

This district is noted for its bipolar economy. Union County is primarily coal mining, while Daviess County is split between agriculture and some exurbs of Owensboro. This district also includes small portions of Henderson County. Union County is one of the most Democratic areas in western Kentucky, while Daviess County is pretty Republican (even downballot).

The incumbent is Suzanne Miles, who is a former district director for Brett Guthrie (KY-02). Miles managed to beat a strong rural Democrat by 7% in 2014. This year, she faces teacher Joy Gray, who is primarily running on educational issues. Gray is a “graduate” of the Emerge Kentucky program, which is a group trying to get more women elected to public office (and has done extremely poorly, at least at the State House level).

This district continues to trend towards the Republicans, especially as the center of population shifts from Union County to the Owensboro suburbs. Miles has raised $36K and spent nothing (as of early October). Gray has raised $12K, spent $11K and has $11K in the bank.

Democrats are going after Miles, but they will need to resurrect some of their old magic to win back some of the rural areas in Daviess County. Since Gray is not from Union, she can’t even count on a large lead out of that county.

The fundamentals favor Miles, but Gray has local institutional support (and there has been some reference to the fact that she is leading Miles in internals).

Tossup.

Kentucky State House District 8

Candidates: Incumbent Jeffery Taylor (D-Hopkinsville) vs. Walker Wood Thomas (R-Hopkinsville)

2012 President: Romney 54%, Obama 45%
2014 Senate: McConnell 54%, Grimes 44%
2015 Governor: Bevin 49%, Conway 48%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 53%, Knipper 47%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 60%, Beshear 40% (Westerfield’s home)

This district takes in the eastern portions of Trigg County and parts of Christian County, including the city of Hopkinsville. Throughout the 20^th century, Hopkinsville was a primarily agricultural town, growing crops like tobacco, soybeans, and wheat. Today, Hopkinsville has become more industrial, and is known for its production of bowling balls. There is a substantial minority population in Hopkinsville.

For most of the last century, the Democratic Party controlled county politics across rural western Kentucky. Since 1980, both Christian and Trigg County have moved to the right. Today, minorities make up a big portion of the Democratic base in Hopkinsville. These minorities have some of the lowest turnout numbers in the state, especially during midterms and special elections (This explains why Grimes could not do better than Obama here, which is a rarity in rural Kentucky).

After Matt Bevin’s victory in the 2015 gubernatorial race, Democratic State Representative John Tilley resigned to accept a position in the cabinet. Speaker Greg Stumbo complained that Tilley had not given him proper notification and that he was disrespecting his voters by going to work in a cabinet of someone in the opposite party.

A special election was held in March, and Democrat Jeff Taylor won the seat. Taylor has campaigned against repealing the prevailing wage and against right to work legislation. Taylor is black, which is important in an area where many blacks do not get out to the polls.

Taylor won the special election against Walker Wood Thomas, the Republican, by an 18-point margin. Thomas is back for another round.

The Republicans will have a very difficult time winning here. The Democratic base is high, and this year, there should be relatively high minority turnout, which will boost the Democrats. Taylor has raised $79K, spent $42K and has $37K in the bank. Thomas has raised $13K, spent $4K and has $9K in the bank.

This race is Safe D.

Kentucky State House District 9

Candidates: Incumbent Myron Dossett (R-Pembroke)

2012 President: Romney 69%, Obama 29%
2014 Senate: McConnell 67%, Grimes 30%
2015 Governor: Bevin 62%, Conway 35%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 59%, Grimes 41%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 62%, Beshear 38%

Incumbent Republican Myron Dossett has held this Christian County based seat since 2006. The economy here is mostly agricultural and dominated by small towns. Dossett is a pretty conservative and is unchallenged this election. Safe R.

Kentucky State House District 10

Candidates: Incumbent Dean Schamore (D-Hardinsburg) vs TW Shortt (R-Radcliff)

2012 President: Romney 58%, Obama 40%
2014 Senate: McConnell 54%, Grimes 42%
2015 Governor: Bevin 54%, Conway 43%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 51%, Knipper 49%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 50%, Westerfield 50%

This district includes Breckinridge County, Hancock County, and parts of Hardin County. This district’s economy is based around manufacturing and agriculture.

The Democrat is freshman Dean Schamore, an information technology businessman from Breckinridge County. Schamore has made tax incentives for infrastructure, veterans’ affairs and education cornerstones of his platform. Schamore has been relatively low-key in his first term. He faces Republican TW Shortt, who is campaigning on running government like a business.

Schamore has deep roots in the largest county, Breckinridge. Hancock is still fairly Democratic downballot, so will go for Schamore. The question: Can Shortt get a large enough lead out of Hardin to win?

Schamore has raised $80K, spent $25K and has $56K in the bank. Shortt has raised $23K, spent $9K and has $13K in the bank.

Likely D.

Kentucky State House District 11

Candidates: Incumbent David Watkins (D-Henderson) vs. Robby Mills (R-Henderson)

2012 President: Romney 55%, Obama 44%
2014 Senate: McConnell 51%, Grimes 47%
2015 Governor: Conway 50%, Bevin 48%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 57%, Knipper 43%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 59%, Westerfield 41%

This district encompasses the historic Ohio River town of Henderson, Kentucky and surrounding communities. Back in the 19^th century, this area was one of the largest producers of tobacco and produced considerable wealth for the city. In the later part of the 20^th century, tariffs and the declining usage of tobacco caused Henderson’s economy to tank. Today, the economy has diversified and is home to industries like aluminum production, food processing, automobile parts, and die making. Coal is also a common (but slowly dying) industry in Henderson County, and the rural areas grow a lot of corn and soybean.

Thanks to high rates of unionization, Henderson County has remained solidly in Democratic hands for a generation. This county actually flipped from George W. Bush in 2004 to Barack Obama in 2008, but flipped strongly in favor of Mitt Romney in 2012 as Democrats began to be perceived as the party against coal.

Locally, the district is deep blue, with a Democratic State Senator, Dorsey Ridley, and a Democratic State Representative, David Watkins. Watkins has served in the State House for 9 years and prior to that served as a doctor in the community. Watkins is a fairly low profile member of the chamber. He has been a supporter of minimum wage increases, tax credits to small businesses and criminal justice reform. He has a mixed record on gun rights, abortion, and gay marriage. He has won his last three elections with between 60 and 65% of the vote.

The Republican candidate is City Commissioner Robby Mills, who is the strongest Republican to run for this seat in years. Mills is a well-known small businessman (he runs a dry cleaning business) and is running on a typical small government, traditional values platform. As a city commissioner, Mills has worked on the city’s financial issues and on infrastructure investment.

Watkins has raised $60K, spent $22K and has $38K in the bank. Mills has raised $64K, spent $60K and has $4K in the bank.

Likely D.

Kentucky State House District 12

Candidates: Incumbent Jim Gooch (R-Providence) vs. James Townsend (D-Dixon)

2012 President: Romney 67%, Obama 31%
2014 Senate: McConnell 64%, Grimes 34%
2015 Governor: Bevin 59%, Conway 38%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 52%, Grimes 48%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 50%, Beshear 50%

This district is located in Webster County, McLean County and part of Hopkins and Daviess County. This district encompasses the heart of the western coalfields, an area that has been hit hard (but not as hard as Eastern Kentucky) by declining coal reserves and the natural gas boom. The area also has ties to agriculture.

The representative here is Representative Jim Gooch. Gooch was first elected in 1995 as an extremely conservative Democrat, who regularly broke with his party. Of note, he has routinely attacked the national party’s position of climate change.

Gooch went unchallenged until 2014, when Republicans recruited Diane Burns Mackey, a member of the Daviess County Board of Education. The Republican Party ran an extremely nasty campaign against Gooch. They tried to connect him to a sex scandal that had taken down another Democratic Representative and tried to connect his support for allowing driver’s licenses to illegal immigrants to how the 9/11 hijackers got their pilot licenses. Gooch won by 20 points and claimed that the Republican Party was so nasty that he would never switch parties.

In December 2015, Gooch decided he was done with Greg Stumbo and the Democratic Party. He announced his switch to the Republican Party and said that the state party had become too close to the national party. Since his switch, Gooch has been a reliable vote for conservative priorities. Gooch is focused on infrastructure, education, and energy.

Democrats are trying to win this seat back. They argue that the seat still retains its Democratic heritage (around 70% of voters are registered Democrats), and is still interested in Democratic candidates.

Stumbo recruited Webster County Judge Executive James Townsend to run against Gooch. Townsend has served for over 20 years and is widely respected in Webster County. He is focusing on increasing trade schools and investing in infrastructure. However, Webster County is also Gooch’s base. Townsend is not known outside of his home county, while Gooch is.

The big question, then: Are voters more concerned about supporting a pro-union Democrat or are they more likely to vote for a candidate that is very popular in all parts of the district? Townsend is betting on voters wanting a check on Matt Bevin, while Gooch is betting on the voters in this district realigning with him.

Gooch has raised $81K, spent $89K and has $16K in the bank. Townsend has raised $58K, spent $29K and has $29K in the bank.

Tossup.

Kentucky State House District 13

Candidates: Incumbent Jim Glenn (D-Owensboro) vs. DJ Johnson (R-Owensboro)

2012 President: Romney 52%, Obama 46%
2014 Senate: McConnell 48%, Grimes 48%
2015 Governor: Conway 49%, Bevin 48%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 58%, Knipper 42%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 59%, Westerfield 41%

This district is located in Owensboro. Known as the BBQ Capital of the World, Owensboro was historically a manufacturing town. Today, the city’s economy continues to include manufacturing as well as banking and healthcare. Owensboro has a substantial minority population.

The representative is Jim Glenn, a black Democrat. Locally, Glenn is known for his work as an economics professor and to promote financial literacy. Glenn has been a pretty standard liberal in the State House of Representatives.

Perhaps because of his liberal record, Glenn has always had trouble winning elections. In 2010, Glenn won 50.8% of the vote. In 2012, Glenn won 50.8% of the vote. In 2014, after being given a slightly more liberal district, Glenn only managed 52.3% of the vote.

This year, Glenn faces DJ Johnson, a local businessman who is campaigning on standard conservative principles. Glenn will hope that the minority population in Owensboro will turn out since it is a presidential election year. Johnson hopes to get enough voters in the outlying areas around the city to knock Glenn off.

Jim Glenn has raised $30K, spent $14K and has $42K in the bank. DJ Johnson has raised $31K, spent $12K and has $36K in the bank.

This race will be close, but Glenn is a survivor. Republicans have identified this as a key race in the bid to get the majority. Tossup.

Kentucky State House District 14

Candidates: Incumbent Tommy Thompson (D-Owensboro) vs. Matt Castlen (R-Maceo)

2012 President: Romney 66%, Obama 32%
2014 Senate: McConnell 60%, Grimes 37%
2015 Governor: Bevin 59%, Conway 38%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 52%, Grimes 48%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 52%, Beshear 48%

This district takes in the outer areas of Owensboro, rural eastern Daviess County and rural Ohio County. Ohio County is home to some coal mining.

The representative here is Democrat Tommy Thompson. Thompson is a former majority whip and has done extensive community service work in Owensboro. Thompson has been inducted into the National Housing Hall of Fame for his work as president of Thompson Homes. In the state legislature, Thompson has focused on legislation related to small business and healthcare. Thompson has also worked preventing scams during weather-related emergencies.

This year, he faces a challenge from Matt Castlen, who is fighting to preserve coal jobs, improve education, and support traditional values.

Castlen is from Maceo, a small town east of Owensboro. To win, he will have to try to increase his name recognition in Ohio County, where Thompson is well known and Castlen is not. Another possibility for Castlen is to win Daviess County by such a large margin, but Thompson is well-known enough that I don’t think that will happen.

Thompson is well-funded. He has raised $62K, spent $162K and has $30K in the bank. Castlen has raised $103K, spent $127K and has $11K in the bank. I expect Thompson will win because of his superior name recognition but there is definitely a feeling that this race has gotten closer than Democrats would like. It is worth noting that this district is quickly trending towards the Republican Party and once Thompson retires (he is 67 this year), this seat will probably be lost for the Democrats.

Lean D.

Kentucky State House District 15

Candidates: Incumbent Brent Yonts (D-Greenville) vs. Melinda Gibbons Prunty (R-Belton)

2012 President: Romney 63%, Obama 35%
2014 Senate: McConnell 57%, Grimes 41%
2015 Governor: Bevin 52%, Conway 45%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 54%, Knipper 46%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 55%, Westerfield 45%

This district is located in Muhlenberg County and eastern Hopkins County. The area is known for its coal reserves, its tobacco production, and Dyno Mobel (which manufactures explosives).

The representative here is Brent Yonts. Yonts is the chair of the powerful State Government Committee and is well known for his work as a lawyer in Muhlenberg County. Yonts has been involved in pension issues and criminal justice reform in his time during the legislature. Earlier this year, he made waves when he campaigned against pension transparency and announced that it was “nobody’s business” what was included in the pension.

Melinda Gibbsons Prunty is the Republican running here. Prunty is an educator running on conservative non-career politician values.

Prunty is running up against the incumbent’s years of experience and high name recognition. The district also maintains a pretty high Democratic floor.

Yonts has raised $60K, spent $36K and has $24K in the bank. Prunty has raised $59K, spent $52K and has $7K in the bank.

Prunty has done surprisingly well on the fundraising front but Yonts has name recognition from his years of service. Lean D.

Kentucky State House District 16

Candidates: Incumbent Martha Jane King (D-Lewisburg) vs. Attorney Jason Petrie (R-Elkton)

2012 President: Romney 67%, Obama 32%
2014 Senate: McConnell 63%, Grimes 34%
2015 Governor: Bevin 60%, Conway 37%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 56%, Grimes 44%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 64%, Beshear 36%

This district is located in south-central Kentucky and includes Logan County, Todd County, and several precincts in Warren County. This district is primarily agricultural and includes several towns.

The district has moved to the right over the last decade as Republicans have become the de-facto conservative party in Kentucky politics. In 2011, Steve Beshear actually lost this seat as he was winning in a landslide statewide. This is one of the most Republican seats held by a Democrat.

The representative for this district is Martha Jane King, who has represented this seat since 2009. King was a former transportation agent and has ties to the Logan County Chamber of Commerce. King has focused on education, economic development, and jobs in her career in the State House of Representatives. King is known for her constituent outreach, which has allowed her to get elected in an area where even local Democrats are becoming less popular. She won with 54% in 2008, 61% in 2010, 54% in 2012, and 60% in 2014 (against an Independent).

This year, King’s opponent is Attorney Jason Petrie, who was the Independent candidate in 2014. King has raised $53K, spent $6K and has $46K in the bank. Petrie has raised $31K, spent $28K and has $3K in the bank.

The general election will be close. King is known as a workhorse, but this seat is slipping from the Democratic Party fast. If Republicans can’t win here, they probably can’t take the majority. Tossup.

Kentucky State House District 17

Candidates: Incumbent Jim DeCesare (R-Rockfield)

2012 President: Romney 69%, Obama 30%
2014 Senate: McConnell 66%, Grimes 31%
2015 Governor: Bevin 63%, Conway 35%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 59%, Grimes 41%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 60%, Beshear 40%

This district covers Butler County and areas west of Bowling Green in Warren County. This area is considered a center of downballot power for the Kentucky Republican Party. In other words, conservative Democrats cannot win here.

The representative here is Jim DeCesare. DeCesare is the Minority Whip and is considered one of the most conservative members of the State House. He is unchallenged for reelection.

Kentucky State House District 18

Candidates: Incumbent Tim Moore (R-Elizabethtown)

2012 President: Romney 68%, Obama 31%
2014 Senate: McConnell 64%, Grimes 33%
2015 Governor: Bevin 62%, Conway 34%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 58%, Grimes 42%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 59%, Beshear 41%

This district is located in Grayson and parts of Hardin County. The area is primarily agricultural.

The representative here is Republican Tim Moore. Moore is very conservative and has advocated that creationism be taught in public schools. He is unchallenged for reelection.

Kentucky State House District 19

Candidates: Incumbent Michael Lee Meredith (R-Brownsville) vs. John Wayne Smith (D-Smiths Grove)

2012 President: Romney 62%, Obama 37%
2014 Senate: McConnell 59%, Grimes 38%
2015 Governor: Bevin 58%, Conway 38%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 56%, Grimes 44%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 56%, Beshear 44%

This district encompasses Edmonson County and areas east and north of Bowling Green in Warren County.

The representative is Michael Lee Meredith, who is a pretty standard conservative. Meredith faces Democrat John Wayne Smith, who lost to Meredith in 2014, 62-38.

In February, Smith was found guilty of failing to alert authorities about child abuse occurring at the Bluegrass Challenge Academy in Fort Knox. Smith has said he may remove himself from the ballot after sentencing.

Regardless, Safe R.

Kentucky State House District 20

Candidates: Incumbent Jody Richards (D-Bowling Green) vs. Melinda Hill (R-Bowling Green)

2012 President: Romney 50%, Obama 48%
2014 Senate: McConnell 52%, Grimes 46%
2015 Governor: Conway 50%, Bevin 47%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 56%, Knipper 44%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 55%, Westerfield 45%

The representative for this district is powerful Democrat Jody Richards, who has represented this area since 1976. Richards is well known for his work in education. He served as Speaker of the House from 1995 to 2009, and in 2015, returned to leadership as President Pro Tempore of the Kentucky House of Representatives. Richards was the chief gerrymander for Democrats in 2011. His community work has led to an elementary school being named after him. Politically, Richards is a solid liberal. In 2014, Richards beat now-Lieutenant Governor Jenean Hampton 63%-37%.

This year, Richards faces a challenge from Bowling Green Commissioner Melinda Hill. Hill is advocating for reduced regulations and a fresh start after 40 years of service from Richards. Unlike Richards, Hill supports right-to-work legislation.

Richards is still the overwhelming favorite here. He has built up a tremendous amount of good-will over 40 years and has used his leadership to bring money back to the district. This area also a high Democratic base, as you can see with the Obama numbers. However, Hill is going to have to make Richards work. This is good for Republicans, since Richards would otherwise be fundraising for vulnerable Democrats.

Richards has raised $74K, spent $65K and has $62K in the bank. Hill has raised $52K, spent $35K and has $17K in the bank.

Safe D.

Kentucky State House District 21

Candidates: Incumbent Bart Rowland (R-Tompkinsville)

2012 President: Romney 69%, Obama 30%
2014 Senate: McConnell 63%, Grimes 33%
2015 Governor: Bevin 61%, Conway 36%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 58%, Grimes 42%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 59%, Beshear 41%

This district starts along the Tennessee-Kentucky border in Monroe County and then moves north through Metcalfe, Hart, and parts of Hardin County. The area is primarily agricultural and is heavily Republican up and downballot.

The representative here is Bart Rowland. Rowland is a conservative Republican and faces no challenge.

Kentucky State House District 22

Candidates: Incumbent Wilson Stone (D-Scotsville)

2012 President: Romney 68%, Obama 31%
2014 Senate: McConnell 63%, Grimes 33%
2015 Governor: Bevin 64%, Conway 33%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 60%, Grimes 40%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 62%, Beshear 38%

This district covers two counties along the Kentucky-Tennessee border: Simpson and Allen County. Simpson County is a county dominated by conservative Democrats, while Allen County is dark red up and down the ballot.

The representative here is Democrat Wilson Stone, a farmer and school board member. Stone has focused on educational/STEM issues, and agriculture while in the legislature.

How conservative is this district? In 2011, as Kentucky Democrats were beating their Republican counterparts by landslide margins, Republicans were actually winning this State House seat. Allen County’s Republican DNA goes back generations.

Yet for whatever reason, Republicans have not been able to find a challenger to Stone. This race should be (relatively) easy for Republicans to win if they can get a name on the ballot and make the case that the Democrats are not actually a conservative party. The fact that Stone remains unchallenged is a major red flag for the state party and raises the question of how serious their efforts are to take back the State House.

Safe D.

Kentucky State House District 23

Candidates: Danny Basil (D-Glasgow) vs. Steve Riley (R-Glasgow)

2012 President: Romney 66%, Obama 33%
2014 Senate: McConnell 59%, Grimes 37%
2015 Governor: Bevin 65%, Conway 35%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 52%, Grimes 48%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 54%, Beshear 46%

This district is centered on Barren County in the south central part of the state. Barren County has been named one of the top rural places to live in the country. Glasgow, the county seat, plays host to the Scottish Highland Games every year.

This district is the last outpost of Blue Dog Democrats before we get to deep red central Kentucky. That being said, Barren County has moved far to the right in recent years, and has become increasingly willing to elect Republicans at all levels of government.

The State Representative for this district is Johnny Bell, who is also the Majority Whip for the Democratic Caucus. Bell has a troubled past with the Democratic Party, and was at time rumored to be a party switcher. Bell has also been involved in the LRC-sexual assault investigation (that brought down one other Democrat). Overall, he is very conservative (particularly on social issues), which has allowed him to win a very difficult district for the Democratic Party.

Shortly before the filing deadline, Bell announced his retirement. Democrats nominated Glasgow attorney Danny Basil, who has campaigned on a platform of strengthening the state’s retirement system and improving vocational education.

The Republicans nominated former principal Steve Riley. Riley is focusing on developing the state’s workforce and expanding opportunities to go into skilled trade. Riley supports right-to-work and wants to create a more business-friendly tax policy.

Basil has raised $56K, spent $26K and has $38K in the bank. Riley has raised $73K, spent $57K and has $15K in the bank.

Without a popular Democratic incumbent on the ballot, and with downballot Kentucky slowly moving away from team blue, it seems realistic to start this race as Leans R Takeover. Riley is very well known and is a strong campaigner.

Kentucky State House District 24

Candidates: Terry Mills (D-Lebanon) vs. William Brandon Reed (R-Hodgenville)

2012 President: Romney 63%, Obama 35%
2014 Senate: McConnell 56%, Grimes 41%
2015 Governor: Bevin 56%, Conway 41%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 51%, Knipper 49%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 52%, Beshear 48%

This district is located in central Kentucky and contains Marion, Larue and Green Counties. Marion County is known for its bourbon whiskey, its Civil War landmarks and bluegrass music. Larue County is primarily rural and known for being the birthplace of Abraham Lincoln. Green County is also rural and is known for its recreation.

The district is politically split. Marion County is one of the bluest counties in the state, with local Democrats regularly beating Republicans with 70 or 80% of the vote (even President Obama got 47% of the vote here in 2012). Larue and Green County are very red with Green County being part of the block of deep red counties in South-central Kentucky.

The State Representative for this district is Terry Mills. Mills is pro-second amendment but besides from that is a standard Democrat (such as his support for increasing the minimum wage). Locally, Mills is involved in the Catholic Church.

Politically, Mills is a survivor. Prior to redistricting, Mills’ district took in Marion County and two of the most Republican counties in South-central Kentucky. But owing to his beloved reputation in Marion County (years of charity work), he regularly received over 80% of the vote (which compensated for poor performance elsewhere).

Greg Stumbo made a point of redrawing his district in 2013. But despite having a much safer district, Mills saw his victory margin drop by 12 points from 61-39 to 55-45. So far this year, Mills has raised $26K.

This year, Mills faces William Reed of Hodgenville, Kentucky. Reed is a former Deputy Circuit Clerk and has also served on the Governor’s Commission on Family Farms. Reed is running on a campaign of fiscal conservatism and cutting government waste.

The general election is hard to handicap. The district’s most populated county is deep blue and as long as Terry Mills can get his >75% there, he should be fine. But if Mills only gets 65% or 70% in Marion County, his little support elsewhere in the district might throw this to the Republicans.

Mills has raised $51K, spent $21K and has $31K in the bank. Reed has raised $42K, spent $40K and has $2K in the bank.

As of now, I rank it Lean D.

Kentucky State House District 25

Candidates: Incumbent Jim DuPlessis (R-Elizabethtown) vs. Michael D. Dile (D-Elizabethtown)

2012 President: Romney 62%, Obama 36%
2014 Senate: McConnell 59%, Grimes 37%
2015 Governor: Bevin 58%, Conway 38%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 52%, Grimes 48%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 53%, Beshear 47%

The representative here is Republican Jim DuPlessis, who ran on a pro-life, pro-gun, pro-right-to-work and fiscal conservative platform. DuPlessis was one of two Republicans to actually defeat a Democratic incumbent, Jimmie Lee, in 2014. Lee had served for over 20 years, so this was a huge win for Republicans. This seat is trending more Republican as the area takes on a more exurban character (from the Louisville area moving south).

The Democrat here is Michael Dile, a former district executive at the Boy Scouts of America. Dile seems to be running on a fiscal moderate (protecting the prevailing wage, higher education, equal pay for equal work) and social conservative (pro-2^nd amendment, pro-life) platform.

With the advantage of incumbency and a district moving his way, DuPlessis seems likely to get reelected.

Likely R.

Kentucky State House District 26

Candidates: Incumbent Russell Webber (R-Shepherdsville)

2012 President: Romney 66%, Obama 32%
2014 Senate: McConnell 60%, Grimes 37%
2015 Governor: Bevin 58%, Conway 38%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 54%, Grimes 46%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 54%, Beshear 46%

This district is located in Hardin County and Bullitt County, just south of Louisville. This district is economically dominated by Fort Knox in Hardin County and the exurbs of Louisville in Bullitt County. Some of the rural areas include agriculture, but those farms are disappearing because of urban sprawl. This area has a high quality of life compared to other places in Kentucky and has an influential and active Republican Party.

The Republican incumbent is Russell Webber. Webber is a fairly conservative member of the Republican caucus. He is unchallenged for reelection.

Kentucky State House District 27

Candidates: Incumbent Jeff Greer (D-Brandenburg) vs. Rachelle Frazier (R-Brandenburg)

2012 President: Romney 56%, Obama 42%
2014 Senate: McConnell 53%, Grimes 44%
2015 Governor: Bevin 50%, Conway 45%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 54%, Knipper 46%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 54%, Westerfield 46%

After several difficult election cycles, Greer got a bunch better seat in redistricting. In 2014, he beat Rachelle Frazier 56%-43%. Frazier is back for another try during this cycle. Frazier is currently the Director of Life Transformation Ministries. Apparently, God told Frazier to run and directed her to Proverbs 17:23, ‘A wicked man accepts a bribe behind the back to pervert the ways of justice.’

Frazier has been endorsed by local Tea Party groups and is running on a “caring and common sense conservative” platform.

Greer has raised $69K, spent $85K and has $16K in the bank. Frazier has raised $15K, spent $10K and has $12K in the bank.

Between Greer’s name recognition, his community service, and the high Democratic floor in this district, I rate this Likely D. If Republicans are winning here, it is a disaster of a night for the Democratic Party.

Kentucky State House District 28

Candidates: Incumbent Charles Miller (D-Louisville) vs. Michael Payne (R-Louisville)

2012 President: Romney 54%, Obama 45%
2014 Senate: McConnell 49%, Grimes 48%
2015 Governor: Conway 51%, Bevin 45%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 57%, Knipper 43%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 57%, Westerfield 43%

This district takes in the southern tip of Jefferson County and mainly consists of sprawling suburban and exurban neighborhoods. The population tends to be predominantly working class.

The representative for this district is Charles Miller. Miller has represented this district since 1999, and is considered moderate. Miller supports the smoking ban, an increase in the minimum wage, and felony record expungement. He is pro-union and pro-NRA.

The Republican is engineer Michael Payne. Payne is running on a pro-2^nd amendment platform. He also wants to freeze college tuition rates and invest in infrastructure and tourism. He also likes school vouchers.

Miller has raised $51K, spent $32K and has $19K in the bank. Payne has raised $12K, spent $9K and has $3K in the bank.

The district itself does not have a lot of swing voters. In his past races, Miller has generally won with around 55% of the vote. His district did get bluer after redistricting, so he might be helped that way.

Likely D.

Kentucky State House District 29

Candidates: Incumbent Kevin Bratcher (R-Louisville)

2012 President: Romney 60%, Obama 39%
2014 Senate: McConnell 56%, Grimes 42%
2015 Governor: Bevin 53%, Conway 44%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 50%, Knipper 50%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 50%, Westerfield 50%

This district is located in southern Jefferson County, and includes the Fern Creek area and some areas that are still rural. The expansion of Louisville (suburban growth) has made this district one of the fastest growing areas in the state.

The representative is Kevin Bratcher, who has represented this seat since 1997. Suburban Louisville has some Republican downballot strength. Bratcher is a moderate to conservative. He voted against a sales tax increase and against a minimum wage increase but supported the gas tax and the smoking ban in 2015. Bratcher has a mixed record on labor issues and recently introduced a “Blue Lives Matter” bill.

After an unexpectedly close election in 2014 (when the Democrat who held the seat pre-1997 ran again and lost by 5 points), Bratcher is unchallenged this year.

Kentucky State House District 30

Candidates: Incumbent Tom Burch (D-Louisville) vs. Waymen Eddings (R-Louisville)

2012 President: Obama 72%, Romney 27%
2014 Senate: Grimes 72%, McConnell 27%
2015 Governor: Conway 70%, Bevin 26%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 76%, Knipper 24%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 76%, Westerfield 24%

This district is located in urban Louisville and contains the neighborhoods of Watterson Park, West Buechel, and Poplar Hills.

The representative here is Democrat Tom Burch. Burch has served in the State House since 1978 and has been the Head of the Health and Welfare Committee since 1985. Burch has been involved with legislation having to do with early childhood development, homelessness, and healthcare. Burch entered the headlines a few years ago after the Kentucky Legislative Ethics Commission investigated him for interfering in a child custody case. He has also refused to bring bills to the floor that would require drug testing of welfare recipients.

Burch faces Wayman Eddings, a shipping clerk. Eddings does not think Democrats have done enough to ameliorate poverty in low-income neighborhoods.

Burch is overwhelmingly favored for reelection. If reelected, he will be 87 in 2018.

Safe D.

Kentucky State House District 31

Candidates: Incumbent Steve Riggs (D-Louisville) vs. Sarah Provancher (R-Louisville)

2012 President: Obama 50%, Romney 48%
2014 Senate: Grimes 52%, McConnell 45%
2015 Governor: Conway 56%, Bevin 41%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 61%, Knipper 39%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 62%, Westerfield 38%

This district is located east of downtown and covers Louisville, Jeffersontown, Houston Acres, and parts of St. Regis Park and St. Matthews. The district is mainly middle class and residential.

The representative here is Democrat Steve Riggs, who has served since 1990. Riggs has focused on issues having to do with transportation, education, healthcare, and small business. Riggs is chair of the Local Government Committee, that deals with matters pertaining to cities and county governments. Riggs is regarded as one of the most pragmatic Democrats in the caucus and is willing to work across the aisle with Republicans on a number of issues.

The Republican here is Sarah Provancher, who is the President of Pro Communications.

Provancher has run a very low-key campaign so far. Riggs generally outperforms the top of the ticket. He has raised $54K, spent $25K and has $30K in the bank. Provancher has raised $12K, spent $6K and has $6K in the bank.

Safe D.

Kentucky State House District 32

Candidates: Incumbent Phil Moffett (R-Louisville)

2012 President: Romney 55%, Obama 43%
2014 Senate: McConnell 54%, Grimes 44%
2015 Governor: Conway 49%, Bevin 48%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 54%, Knipper 46%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 55%, Westerfield 45%

This district is located east of Louisville and includes middle class and wealthy areas of the city.

The representative is freshman Republican Phil Moffett. Moffett is a fiscal conservative and has campaigned on cutting spending and eliminating the state income tax. He is rumored to be a potential leadership candidate in the years ahead.

Despite a relatively close election in 2012, Democrats could not get anyone to challenge Moffett. This is significant, as even Jack Conway won this seat in 2015.

Safe R, but Moffett will need to be careful in the years ahead.

Kentucky State House District 33

Candidates: Jason Michael Nemes (R-Louisville) vs. Rob Walker (D-Louisville)

2012 President: Romney 57%, Obama 41%
2014 Senate: McConnell 55%, Grimes 43%
2015 Governor: Bevin 52%, Conway 45%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 51%, Knipper 49%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 51%, Westerfield 49%

The Republican is Jason Michael Nemes, whose dad is Bevin’s Deputy Labor Secretary. Nemes defeated moderate Republican incumbent Ron Crimm in the primary. Nemes seems to be a typical conservative who is running to end lawmakers’ pensions, bring more transparency to government, and fight for socially conservative values. Nemes is also well known from having successfully challenged the House Democratic majority’s first redistricting plan.

The Democrat is Rob Walker. Walker is a conservative Democrat, who is part of Matt Bevin’s transition team. Walker is focused on bringing people together, and bringing small business voices to the legislature.

This is one of the most Republican areas of Louisville. Nemes has raised $121K, spent $4K and has $116K in the bank. Walker has raised $23K, spent $17K and has $5K in the bank. I give the advantage to the Republicans in part because of Nemes’ massive financial advantage. – Likely R.

Kentucky State House District 34

Candidates: Mary Lou Marzian (D-Louisville)

2012 President: Obama 60%, Romney 38%
2014 Senate: Grimes 63%, McConnell 35%
2015 Governor: Conway 69%, Bevin 28%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 73%, Knipper 27%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 73%, Westerfield 27%

This district is located in the Highlands area of Kentucky. The area is known for its slogan “Keep Louisville weird,” its nightclubs, and its restaurants. The area continues to go through gentrification, which has brought many young liberal professionals into the district. If there is one area in Kentucky with bold progressives, then this is it.

The representative is Democrat Mary Lou Marzian, who has served since 1995. True to the district, Marzian is very liberal. In retaliation for pro-life legislation moving through the chamber, Marzian introduced a bill to require men to visit two doctors and have significant permission before obtaining a prescription for Viagra. Marzian has been a strong proponent of increased environmental protection, the continuation of Kynect, and drug reform.

Marzian faces no challenge in the general election.

Kentucky State House District 35

Candidates: Jim Wayne (D-Louisville)

2012 President: Obama 56%, Romney 42%
2014 Senate: Grimes 59%, McConnell 38%
2015 Governor: Conway 63%, Bevin 33%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 68%, Knipper 32%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 68%, Westerfield 32%

This district is located in urban Louisville, south of downtown. The district contains working class neighborhoods and the airport.

The representative here is Democrat Jim Wayne, who has represented the district since 1991. He has spent most of his time working on issues having to do with tax reform, housing, and pension reform. GOP leader Jeff Hoover criticized Wayne’s tax plan as a massive tax increase.

Wayne faces no challenge in his bid for reelection. Safe D.

Kentucky State House District 36

Candidates: Jerry T. Miller (R-Louisville)

2012 President: Romney 67%, Obama 32%
2014 Senate: McConnell 64%, Grimes 34%
2015 Governor: Bevin 60%, Conway 38%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 56%, Grimes 44%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 57%, Beshear 43%

This district is located in the dark red suburbs of east Louisville – Eastwood, Fisherville, and Lake Forest. The district also includes some areas in wealthy Oldham County, near Pewee Valley.

The representative is freshman Republican Jerry T. Miller. Miller is unchallenged in one of the districts where Republicans regularly do well up and down the ballot.

Kentucky State House District 37

Candidates: Incumbent Jeff Donohue (D-Fairdale) vs. Mark Wilson (R-Louisville)

2012 President: Obama 50%, Romney 49%
2014 Senate: Grimes 52%, McConnell 45%
2015 Governor: Conway 54%, Bevin 43%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 60%, Knipper 40%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 60%, Westerfield 40%

This district is located directly west of the Louisville airport, and includes industrial white-working class areas and areas near Churchill Downs.

The representative here is Jeffrey Donohue, a pretty standard liberal Democrat. Donohue is the lead representative of the Louisville delegation. Donohue is pro-union, pro-criminal reform and pro-gun rights.

The Republican running is veteran Mark Wilson, a financial representative.

Wilson faces long odds to defeat Donohue in the general election. Likely D.

Kentucky State House District 38

Candidates: McKenzie Cantrell (D-Louisville) vs. Incumbent Denny Butler (R-Louisville)

2012 President: Obama 54%, Romney 44%
2014 Senate: Grimes 54%, McConnell 43%
2015 Governor: Conway 56%, Bevin 40%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 61%, Knipper 39%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 62%, Westerfield 38%

This district is located just west of District 37 and stretches from the urban business center south to suburban areas near the Bullitt County line.

The representative is Denver Butler. Despite his dad being close with all the powerbrokers in the state when he was a state representative, Denver has always had a contentious issue with former Speaker Pro Tempore Larry Clark and current Speaker Greg Stumbo. In December 2015, Butler switched parties, claiming that Democrats were not interested in facilitating an audit on KLEPF, a restricted fund for police and fire. The real reason, according to insiders, was that the Democratic establishment had decided not to endorse his brother in the open 46^th District in Louisville.

The Democrat is McKenzie Cantrell, who is a graduate of the Emerge Kentucky program, which is dedicated to electing more women to the Kentucky State Legislature. Emerge Kentucky has a pretty horrible record – in 2014, they threw a ton of money at races around the commonwealth and only managed to pull off one victory. Cantrell is a lawyer and has received the endorsement of United Mine Workers. She has focused on raising the wage for working people and providing family care to working families.

This is going to be one of the top Democratic targets in the general election. This seat is pretty overwhelmingly Democratic and Republicans almost never win seats that Obama wins in urban Louisville. Denver Butler will try to ride on his name recognition (his father was a State Representative before him) as well as his strong campaign fundraising.

Butler has raised $33K, spent $47K and has $38K in the bank. Cantrell has raised $72K, spent $31K and has $41K in the bank.

However, fundamentals (Obama won this seat!) suggest that this race starts at Lean D takeover.

Kentucky State House District 39

Candidates: Incumbent Russ Meyer (D-Nicholasville) vs. Robert L. Gullette III (R-Nicholasville)

2012 President: Romney 65%, Obama 33%
2014 Senate: McConnell 59%, Grimes 37%
2015 Governor: Bevin 57%, Conway 38%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 51%, Grimes 49%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 55%, Beshear 45%

This district encompasses the eastern half of Jessamine County. For years, wine, agriculture and horse rearing were key themes in Jessamine County. As the suburbs of Lexington have crept south, this area has taken on a more exurban character, with new retail. As the district has become more suburban, the area has also taken on a more Republican character. The area is Safe R up-ballot, and in 2014, the county elected a Republican Judge Executive (essentially the county leader).

But one thing has not changed. The district still sends a Democrat to the State House. The representative here is Russ Meyer, the former mayor of the biggest city in this district, Nicholasville. For sitting in a district with a sizable percentage of registered Republicans, Meyer is actually quite liberal. The American Conservative Union lumped Meyer in with the Louisville and Lexington liberals: “The Coalition of the Radical Left.” Meyer has focused on investing in jobs, expanding STEM opportunities and watching out for unfunded state mandates. In the legislature, Meyer supported a smoking ban, has supported the 2^nd amendment and is anti-abortion. Meyer is up on the air with ads talking about his support for transparency and government disclosure.

Meyer recently made headlines when he alleged that Matt Bevin threatened him and delayed a transportation project in his district for not switching parties.

He faces a challenge this year from Republican Attorney Rob Gullette. Gullette is focused on reforming the pension system (and the associated investment fees), drug addiction, and fighting against Obamacare. Meyer has raised $144K, spent $97K and has $47K in the bank. Gullette has raised $44K, spent $16K and has $27K in the bank.

Meyer won by a surprisingly large 12 points in 2014 (after Republicans proclaimed this race was in the bag), so he can’t be counted out. Registration numbers favor Republicans, though. If Republicans are making gains, they really need to pick this one up.

Tossup.

Kentucky State House District 40

Candidates: Incumbent Dennis Horlander (D-Louisville) vs. George Demic (R-Louisville)

2012 President: Obama 68%, Romney 31%
2014 Senate: Grimes 68%, McConnell 29%
2015 Governor: Conway 69%, Bevin 28%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 74%, Knipper 26%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 75%, Westerfield 25%

This district is located in the working class areas of west and southwest Louisville. The representative is liberal Democrat Dennis Horlander. Horlander focuses on election reform, consumer protection, and child support.

Horlander faces unknown Republican George Demic in the general election.

Safe D.

Kentucky State House District 41

Candidates: Incumbent Tom Riner (D-Louisville)

2012 President: Obama 77%, Romney 22%
2014 Senate: Grimes 75%, McConnell 23%
2015 Governor: Conway 75%, Bevin 22%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 79%, Knipper 21%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 79%, Westerfield 21%

This district is majority-minority and stretches from Louisville’s African-American west-end through gentrifying neighborhoods with younger liberal voters and eastward to Republican areas of Mockingbird Valley and St. Matthews.

The representative is Thomas Riner, who has served in the State House for 34 years. Riner is white. After being accused of being too conservative and abandoning the Democratic caucus meetings, Riner lost by a significant margin in the 2016 primary.

Thus, the next Representative for this seat will be Metro City Councilwoman Attica Scott, who is black. Scott is running on supporting a statewide Fairness Law, supporting automatic restoration of voting rights for felons and supports increasing the minimum wage.

Safe D.

Kentucky State House District 42

Candidates: Incumbent Reginald Meeks (D-Louisville) vs. James Howland (R)

2012 President: Obama 86%, Romney 13%
2014 Senate: Grimes 87%, McConnell 11%
2015 Governor: Conway 85%, Bevin 11%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 90%, Knipper 10%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 90%, Westerfield 10%

This district stretches from West End through areas directly east of downtown. It is the most Democratic district in the state.

The representative is Reginald Meeks, a Democrat, who has served since 2001. Meeks is chair of the Committee on Elections, Constitutional Amendments and Intergovernmental Affairs.

Meeks is extremely liberal and a supporter of increasing the minimum wage. He faces Republican James Howland in the general election.

Safe D.

Kentucky State House District 43

Candidates: Incumbent Darryl T. Owens (D-Louisville) vs. John Mark Owen (R)

2012 President: Obama 76%, Romney 23%
2014 Senate: Grimes 73%, McConnell 26%
2015 Governor: Conway 72%, Bevin 25%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 77%, Knipper 23%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 78%, Westerfield 22%

The incumbent here is Darryl Owens. Owens is a civil rights lawyer who has worked on issues having to do with economic development, racial and gender equality and criminal justice reform. Owens was the author of a bill to allow expungement of low-level felonies in the last session and now runs the House Judiciary Committee.

Owens faces Republican John Mark Owen in the general election. Safe D.

Kentucky State House District 44

Candidates: Incumbent Joni Jenkins (D-Shively)

2012 President: Obama 61%, Romney 38%
2014 Senate: Grimes 63%, McConnell 35%
2015 Governor: Conway 65%, Bevin 32%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 70%, Knipper 30%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 70%, Westerfield 30%

This district is located in Shively, a suburb of Louisville, and blue collar, working-class areas of Louisville. Shively is known for its historical segregation, its prostitution, and its ties to the bourbon industry.

The representative here is Democrat Joni Jenkins. Jenkins is very liberal and has focused on drug abuse and women’s health issues. She is unchallenged for reelection.

Kentucky State House District 45

Candidates: Incumbent Stan Lee (R-Lexington) vs Pam Sigler (D-Lexington)

2012 President: Romney 61%, Obama 38%
2014 Senate: McConnell 57%, Grimes 41%
2015 Governor: Bevin 49%, Conway 46%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 53%, Knipper 47%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 50%, Beshear 50%

This district is located in Southwest Lexington. The area is home to mainly suburban subdivisions. The representative is Republican Stan Lee. Lee is extremely conservative, particularly on social issues. In 2015, Lee introduced legislation that would protect ministers who don’t want to perform gay marriages. This week, Lee filed legislation to allow home-schooled children to play on public school sports teams. Lee faces Democrat Pam Sigler. Sigler, an Emerge Kentucky graduate, is an extension specialist for the University of Kentucky. At the University of Kentucky, she is tasked with overseeing federal budgets and grants. In the community, Sigler has worked to create a program to link farms to food banks.

Sigler has raised $25K, spent $12K and has $13K in the bank, while Lee has raised $3K, spent $4K and has $79K in the bank. Lee has the name recognition and the lean of his district on his side (this is the only area of Lexington that leans Republican).

Likely R.

Kentucky State House District 46

Candidates: Alan Gentry (D-Louisville) vs. Eric Crump (R-Louisville)

2012 President: Obama 54%, Romney 44%
2014 Senate: Grimes 56%, McConnell 42%
2015 Governor: Conway 57%, Bevin 40%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 62%, Knipper 38%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 62%, Westerfield 38%

This district is located in the southern area of Louisville and is home to the suburban sprawl that dominates southern Jefferson County.

The representative is Larry Clark, who is a retired electrician. Clark has served in the State House for 32 years, and served as Speaker Pro Tempore from 1993-2015. He remains one of the most powerful Democrats in Jefferson County, and is often sought out for fundraising and endorsements. As a legislator, Clark has been involved in education reform, economic development bills, and a bill that saved the state’s unemployment insurance fund. Clark is a member of a union and has also dedicated his time to supporting a key nonprofit, Teenage Parent Program, which works to prevent pregnant teens from dropping out of school. Clark will finally retire from the State Legislature in January 2017.

The Democrat running to replace Clark is Alan Gentry, a scientist and small businessman who spends his time working with athletes with disabilities. Gentry has been endorsed by a number of labor groups and said his top priorities are education reform, and economic growth. Gentry also wants to expand Kynect.

The Republican here is Eric Crump. Crump is a small business owner who is campaigning on fiscal responsibility, quality education, and increasing jobs.

Like other Kentucky seats, Republicans struggle to win anything that Obama won fairly convincingly. Therefore, this race starts out at Safe D, and will probably require a blunder by Gentry to become more competitive.

Kentucky State House District 47

Candidates: Incumbent Rick Rand (D-Bedford)

2012 President: Romney 58%, Obama 40%
2014 Senate: McConnell 54%, Grimes 42%
2015 Governor: Bevin 52%, Conway 44%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 53%, Knipper 47%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 52%, Westerfield 48%

We move out of Louisville towards Northern Kentucky. This district encompasses Henry, Trimble, Carroll and Gallatin County along the Ohio River. The area is known for its manufacturing (some that is environmentally-friendly!) and its tobacco markets.

The representative is Democrat Rick Rand, the chair of the powerful Appropriations and Revenue Committee. Rand has been one of the main voices arguing with Bevin about how to set priorities during the last year.

Rand faces no Republican challenger this cycle.

Kentucky State House District 48

Candidates: Maria Sorolis (D-Louisville) vs. Ken Fleming (R-Louisville)

2012 President: Romney 58%, Obama 41%
2014 Senate: McConnell 56%, Grimes 43%
2015 Governor: Bevin 49%, Conway 48%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 52%, Knipper 48%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 53%, Westerfield 47%

This district is located in some of the wealthiest and most educated areas of the Louisville Metro area. The wealth in this area dates back to the 19^th century, when wealthy Louisvillians would come here for the summer.

The representative here is Bob M. DeWeese. DeWeese is a former surgeon and has served in his seat since 1993. Despite being from a fiscally conservative seat, DeWeese has a lifetime rating from the ACU of 28% (the most liberal Republican in the House). DeWeese has supported increasing the sales tax, supported a smoking ban, and has supported the Obama administration’s education program. By other metrics, DeWeese is more conservative. He is pro-2^nd amendment, has received a 100% rating from the NFIB, is pro-life, and has been endorsed by the Kentucky Chamber of Commerce. DeWeese is considered to be one of the more popular members of the chamber. In January, he announced he would retire when his current term ends.

The Democrat running to replace him is Maria Sorolis. Sorolis is running on infrastructure investment and education reform. Sorolis is a graduate of Emerge Kentucky. Sorolis has raised $14K, spent $5K and has $8K in the bank. Sorolis has focused on investing in education, basic infrastructure, and jobs.

The Republican candidate here is Ken Fleming, a former Metro Councilman. Fleming is in favor of reducing taxes, adopting Right to Work, repealing prevailing wage laws, and decreasing regulations. Fleming has name recognition from prior public service. Fleming has raised $80K, spent $40K and has $40K in the bank.

Who will win the general election? This area has a well-financed Republican Party and tends to like Republicans like Fleming whom are fiscally conservative (and less concerned about social issues). But a Democratic candidate that tries to be fiscally moderate definitely has a chance – Jack Conway came very close to winning this district and Democrats might be willing to actually vote for their party now that the uber-popular DeWeese is not on the ballot. The race will start at Likely R because of fundamentals, Fleming’s name recognition and Fleming’s campaign skills, but this race is definitely an opportunity for Democrats looking to go on offense this fall.

Kentucky State House District 49

Candidates: Linda Howlett Belcher (D-Shepherdsville) vs. Dan Johnson (R-Mount Washington)

2012 President: Romney 65%, Obama 32%
2014 Senate: McConnell 59%, Grimes 38%
2015 Governor: Bevin 57%, Conway 39%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 54%, Grimes 46%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 54%, Beshear 46%

This district is located just outside Jefferson County in rapidly exurbanizing-Bullitt County. Bullitt has been a haven for new businesses in recent years and has become a major distribution center. The biggest employer is Zappos, an online shoe and clothing shop. Politically, the region has a highly functional and active Republican Party. The area tends to be libertarian. Because of that, Greg Stumbo drew of one the most gerrymandered districts in Bullitt County, literally connecting every somewhat Democratic precinct to create the 49^th district.

Two Republicans originally filed from the ballot: County Judge Executive Jennifer Roberts, who then dropped out and Jennifer Stepp, who illegally made her way onto the ballot (she didn’t get the required signatures). When the Court removed Stepp from the ballot, they ordered another Republican to be put on the ballot. The local party picked Dan Johnson. Johnson has been disowned by the Kentucky Republican Party for Facebook posts linking President Obama to a photo of a chimpanzee. Johnson also called “RealID” (a form of ID to track down terrorists) “Hitleristic.”

Democrats feel comfortable with Belcher’s campaign, but this district leans Republican enough that Johnson could theoretically come back and win with minimal effort. Lean D.

Kentucky State House District 50

Candidates: James DeWeese (D-Bardstown) vs. D. Chad McCoy (R-Bardstown)

2012 President: Romney 58%, Obama 41%
2014 Senate: McConnell 51%, Grimes 46%
2015 Governor: Bevin 48%, Conway 48%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 56%, Knipper 44%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 54%, Westerfield 46

This district is located in Nelson County, Kentucky. The county seat is Bardstown, which is known for its Catholic heritage, its historic district, its distilleries, and its agricultural industry.

The representative is Republican David Floyd. Floyd has managed to hold this seat even with a sizable number of economically liberal Democrats. Floyd is the sponsor of a bill to end the death penalty and has focused on military voting during his time in office. Earlier this year, Floyd announced he would retire at the end of his term.

The Democrat running for this seat is James DeWeese, an elections and business agent at Teamsters Local 89. DeWeese is running on opposing right-to-work. DeWeese also favors Obama’s overtime rule and other measures to improve income.

The Republican is Chad McCoy, a trial lawyer and family farmer. McCoy is campaigning on increasing government transparency, being against abortion, investing in infrastructure and protecting the 2^nd amendment.

DeWeese has raised $31K, spent $31K and has $18K in the bank. McCoy has raised $102K, spent $100K and has $2K in the bank.

This district will be competitive. It is one of the few seats that Republicans hold where they are spending money. There are enough conservative Democrats here (and a high enough Obama base) that DeWeese could easily win. Democratic leadership is also actively spending here, suggesting that they want this seat as insurance against losses in redder seats.

Could go either way. Tossup.

Kentucky State House District 51

Candidates: John “Bam” Carney (R-Campbellsville)

2012 President: Romney 72%, Obama 27%
2014 Senate: McConnell 65%, Grimes 31%
2015 Governor: Bevin 63%, Conway 34%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 57%, Grimes 43%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 61%, Beshear 39%

This district is located in South Central Kentucky and includes Taylor and Adair County. Historically, textiles, wood milling, and oil dominated the economy of this district. Today, the area is known for its healthcare, education, and tourism.

The representative here is Republican Bam Carney. This year, Carney introduced a bill to ban social media posts after injury-causing events. Carney is a pretty generic conservative. He is unopposed for reelection.

Kentucky State House District 52

Candidates: Ken Upchurch (R-Monticello)

2012 President: Romney 77%, Obama 22%
2014 Senate: McConnell 66%, Grimes 30%
2015 Governor: Bevin 66%, Conway 31%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 59%, Grimes 41%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 66%, Beshear 34%

This district is located in rural central Kentucky, and includes Wayne, McReary and part of Pulaski County. The area is known for its houseboat manufacturing and recreational and tourist traffic.

The representative is Republican Ken Upchurch, who served from 1999 to 2010 and then returned in 2013. Upchurch is unchallenged for reelection.

Kentucky State House District 53

Candidates: Incumbent James Tipton (R-Taylorsville) vs. James Sargent (D-Lawrenceburg)

2012 President: Romney 67%, Obama 31%
2014 Senate: McConnell 62%, Grimes 34%
2015 Governor: Bevin 59%, Conway 36%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 55%, Grimes 45%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 58%, Beshear 42%

This district is located between Lexington and Louisville, in Anderson, Spencer and Bullitt Counties. In the last few years, the area has seen rapid exurban growth from the expansion of both cities. The area also retains some of its agricultural and horse farm heritage.

The Republican here is freshman James Tipton. Democrats had high hopes of winning the open seat in 2014, but ended up losing it by 16 points. Tipton is a pretty standard conservative and should be a favorite for reelection, as he becomes entrenched.

Tipton has raised $16K, spent $2K and has $21K in the bank. His Democratic opponent is farmer and volunteer James Sargent, who has raised $10K, spent $7K and has $3K in the bank.

Sargent is unlikely to win as downballot exurban Republicans begin to fill this district. Safe R.

Kentucky State House District 54

Candidates: Incumbent Daniel B. Elliott (R-Danville) vs. Bill Noelker (D-Danville)

2012 President: Romney 68%, Obama 30%
2014 Senate: McConnell 62%, Grimes 35%
2015 Governor: Bevin 63%, Conway 33%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 55%, Grimes 45%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 60%, Beshear 40%

This district is located in Central Kentucky, and takes in all of Boyle and Casey County. The biggest city in this district is Danville, considered the “Birthplace of Bluegrass.” Danville is home to Centre College, a manufacturing sector, and is a manufacturing and service center for Central Kentucky. Casey County is primarily rural and is known for its metalworking industry, its Amish community and its topographical features – “The Knobs.”

Boyle County is more Democratic on the local level, while Casey County is part of the Republican base (that is opposed to voting for even downballot Democrats) in South Central Kentucky. Because of the relatively large margin that Casey County gives Republicans, it is incredibly hard for Democrats to win here.

The winner of the primary will take on Attorney Bill Noelker. Noelker is a good campaigner, but this seat (Casey County) is too Republican for him to have a chance. Safe R.

Kentucky State House District 55

Candidates: Incumbent Kim King (R-Harrodsburg) vs. Tobie C. Brown (D-Harrodsburg)

2012 President: Romney 70%, Obama 28%
2014 Senate: McConnell 64%, Grimes 32%
2015 Governor: Bevin 62%, Conway 34%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 57%, Grimes 43%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 60%, Beshear 40%

This district is located in Central Kentucky and contains Washington County, Mercer County, and rural areas of Jessamine County. This district is primarily agricultural and sits on the southern edge of the Bluegrass. Harrodsburg, in Mercer County, was the first permanent settlement west of the Allegheny Mountains and is home to outdoor recreation opportunities and the state’s oldest family-operated country inn (which has won numerous awards!).

Politically, the region has many conservative Democrats, who have slowly drifted towards the Republican Party over the last decade. The Jessamine part of this district is solidly Republican.

In 2014, Emerge Kentucky poured tens of thousands of dollars down the drain in this district in support of Jacqueline Coleman. King beat Coleman by thirty points. Emerge clearly didn’t learn the lesson, as they recruited Tobie C. Brown to be the candidate. Brown’s biography says that she has “over 20 years of pageant experience” and “is now a sought out pageant consultant and judge.” She is a former television host and is a motivational speaker. It doesn’t really matter, though. There is no way King loses here, so I hope Emerge doesn’t waste time investing in Brown’s campaign. Safe R.

Kentucky State House District 56

Candidates: Incumbent James Kay (D-Versailles) vs. Daniel Fister (R-Versailles)

2012 President: Romney 56%, Obama 42%
2014 Senate: McConnell 50%, Grimes 46%
2015 Governor: Conway 50%, Bevin 44%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 58%, Knipper 42%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 54%, Westerfield 46%

This district is located in Woodford County, Franklin County, and includes a sliver of Fayette County (Lexington). Woodford County is known for its bluegrass, its horse farms, and its bourbon. Development bans have allowed Woodford County to maintain its rural nature, while being extremely close to Lexington. The Lexington sliver is designed to add more Democratic voters to the district. The Franklin County portion of this district includes a lot of state employees living in eastern Frankfort.

The representative here is Democrat James Kay. Kay was first elected in a special election in 2013. Kay is young and is known as a workhorse within the caucus. In his first reelection in 2014, he managed to hold off personal friend and Republican Ryan Schwartz by 20 points. Kay has mainly been a liberal in the State House.

This year, Kay faces Republican Daniel Fister, a farmer, property manager and retired general contractor. Fister wants to “take back our future,” limit debt, listen to people, decrease taxes, and invest in jobs measures.

Kay has raised $76K, and spent almost nothing so far while Fister has raised $23K, spent $15K and has $13K in the bank. Kay’s popularity and his landslide 2014 win, as well as the high base for Democrats, suggests that he should win easily again in 2016. Likely D.

Kentucky State House District 57

Candidates: Incumbent Derrick Graham (D-Frankfort)

2012 President: Obama 51%, Romney 47%
2014 Senate: Grimes 54%, McConnell 41%
2015 Governor: Conway 59%, Bevin 34%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 67%, Knipper 33%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 63%, Westerfield 37%

This district is centered on the state capitol of Frankfort. Today, Frankfort houses a number of government agencies and a vibrant downtown.

The representative is black Democrat Derrick Graham. Graham has served since 2003 and serves as the chair of the Education Committee. He has a mostly liberal voting record and is unchallenged for reelection.

Kentucky State House District 58

Candidates: Rob Rothenburger (R-Shelbyville) vs. Cyndi Powell Skellie (D-Shelbyville)

2012 President: Romney 63%, Obama 36%
2014 Senate: McConnell 61%, Grimes 37%
2015 Governor: Bevin 57%, Conway 39%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 53%, Grimes 47%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 54%, Beshear 46%

This district is located just east of Louisville, and encompasses all of Shelby County. Historically, Shelby County has been primarily agricultural, growing crops like tobacco, hemp, and wheat. Following World War II, this area started to industrialize. The growth of Louisville has started to encroach upon the western areas of the county. The area is also known as the Saddlebred Capital of the World for its horse farms.

The representative here is Republican Brad Montell, whose two biggest accomplishment include prohibiting 16 and 17 year olds from driving if they have not achieved passing grades and reforming the pension system in 2013. Montell is considered a moderate Republican and is retiring at the end of this year.

The Republican running to replace Montell is County Judge Executive Rob Rothenburger. Rothenburger seems to be running as a generic conservative.

The Democrat running is teacher and Emerge Kentucky graduate Cyndi Powell Skellie.

Skellie has raised $24K, spent $8K and has $16K in the bank. Rothenburger has raised $22K, spent $9K and has $13K in the bank. This seat does not easily elect Democrats and Skellie will need Rothenburger to make several mistakes to win.

Likely R.

Kentucky State House District 59

Candidates: David Osborne (R-Prospect)

2012 President: Romney 68%, Obama 30%
2014 Senate: McConnell 65%, Grimes 33%
2015 Governor: Bevin 61%, Conway 35%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 59%, Grimes 41%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 59%, Beshear 41%

This district is located in Oldham County, one of the wealthiest and most educated areas of Kentucky. Years ago, Oldham was where wealthy residents of Louisville went to escape the summer heat.

The representative here is Republican David Osborne, a very conservative Republican on fiscal and economic issues. Interestingly, Osborne was the only Republican in the lower chamber who did not support signing onto the gay marriage ban.

Osborne is unchallenged for reelection.

Kentucky State House District 60

Candidates: Sal Santoro (R-Florence)

2012 President: Romney 71%, Obama 27%
2014 Senate: McConnell 69%, Grimes 27%
2015 Governor: Bevin 68%, Conway 29%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 68%, Grimes 32%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 63%, Beshear 37%

The representative here is Republican Sal Santoro, who is a very conservative Republican. Santoro is unchallenged for reelection.

Kentucky State House District 61

Candidates: Incumbent Brian Linder (R-Dry Ridge) vs. Kevin Napier (D-Georgetown)

2012 President: Romney 68%, Obama 30%
2014 Senate: McConnell 66%, Grimes 30%
2015 Governor: Bevin 62%, Conway 34%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 61%, Grimes 39%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 59%, Beshear 41%

This district is in part of the Bluegrass region in rural northern Kentucky. The district is mainly agricultural, and includes Ark Encounter, a Christian fundamentalist theme park.

The representative here is Republican Brian Linder. Linder is very conservative.

He is being challenged by Kevin Napier, an entrepreneur in Georgetown, who has focused on drug addiction issues. Napier’s work on drug addiction issues has attracted some attention, but he is fighting an uphill battle in a seat that is moving towards the right. Napier has not reported any financial reports. Linder has raised $18K, spent $2K and has $16K in the bank.

Safe R.

Kentucky State House District 62

Candidates: Incumbent Chuck Tackett (D-Georgetown) vs. Phil Pratt (R-Georgetown)

2012 President: Romney 61%, Obama 37%
2014 Senate: McConnell 56%, Grimes 40%
2015 Governor: Bevin 52%, Conway 43%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 51%, Knipper 49%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 50%, Beshear 50%

Scott County is a mix of Republicans and Democrats, while Owen County is a traditional rural county controlled by Democrats. The two Fayette County precincts have a slight lean towards the Democrats.

The candidates are incumbent Democrat Chuck Tackett (who surprisingly won a special election in March), and Phil Pratt, a businessman. Tackett has tried to avoid calling himself a typical Democrat, instead saying that he is “pro-family” and “pro-business.” He opposes Bevin’s budget. Tackett has received the endorsement of the Lexington-Herald Leader. Pratt has campaigned with popular State Agriculture Commissioner Ryan Quarles (who held the seat before running in 2015) and has campaigned on typical conservative principles: reducing government regulations, pro-NRA, and pro-life. Pratt has secured the endorsement of Damon Thayer, the popular State Senate Majority Leader from the region.

Tackett ran in 2014 and has name recognition as the incumbent. But this area has continued to realign to the Republican Party over the past few years and Pratt has several big popular names supporting him. Pratt is also doing well financially: He has raised $147K, spent $136K and has $10K in the bank. Tackett has raised $59K, spent $56K and has $16K in the bank.

Pure Tossup right now. This is a big one to watch on election night.

Kentucky State House District 63

Candidates: Incumbent Diane St. Onge (R-Lakeside Park)

This district is also located in northern Kentucky and includes parts of Boone and Kenton County. The district is mainly middle class and includes suburban subdivisions south of Cincinnati.

The representative is Republican Diane St. Onge, who is a lawyer. St. Onge has prioritized decreasing taxes, pension reform, getting rid of Obamacare, and fighting for transparent government.

St. Onge is unchallenged for reelection.

Kentucky State House District 64

Candidates: Kimberly Poser (R-Taylor Mill) vs. Lucas Deaton (D-Independence)

2012 President: Romney 67%, Obama 31%
2014 Senate: McConnell 66%, Grimes 31%
2015 Governor: Bevin 61%, Conway 35%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 64%, Grimes 36%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 58%, Beshear 42%

This district is located in Northern Kentucky – the heart of local Republican strength in Kentucky. This area is fairly densely populated with most of the towns being medium-sized. The area’s economy is connected to Cincinnati, which is just over the river. Some of the employers in this district include Cengage, Mazak and Rotek.

The incumbent Republican, Tom Kerr, has announced his retirement. Republicans have selected Kim Moser to run in Kerr’s place. Moser is the director of the Northern Kentucky Office of Drug Control Policy, who has spent the last few years fighting the heroin epidemic (a big issue in Kentucky). Moser has also said she wants to be involved in tort reform registration. Kerr has endorsed Moser.

Democrats have nominated Independence City Councilman Lucas Deaton. Deaton claims some of his top values include “Family First,” “Faith in God,” and “Justice will prevail.”

Moser has a major money advantage.

Safe R in the general. This is one of the few areas that Republicans can count on downballot.

Kentucky State House District 65

Candidates: Arnold Simpson (D-Covington)

2012 President: Obama 56%, Romney 41%
2014 Senate: Grimes 55%, McConnell 41%
2015 Governor: Conway 56%, Bevin 40%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 59%, Knipper 41%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 64%, Westerfield 36%

This district is located in Covington in Northern Kentucky, directly across from Cincinnati. The area was the historic home of Stewart Iron Works, the largest iron fence maker in the world. The area was hit hard in the economic recession. Downtown rejuvenation along the riverfront has come at a slow pace, and has mostly centered on healthcare and financial investment.

The representative is black Democrat Arnold Simpson. Simpson has served in the State House for 21 years and is the Vice Chair of the powerful Appropriations Committee. Most of his legislative work revolves around criminal justice, sexual assault, and taxes.

Simpson is unchallenged for reelection.

Kentucky State House District 66

Candidates: Addia Kathryn Wuncher (R-Burlington)

2012 President: Romney 70%, Obama 29%
2014 Senate: McConnell 69%, Grimes 28%
2015 Governor: Bevin 66%, Conway 30%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 67%, Grimes 33%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 62%, Beshear 38%

This district is located in northwestern Boone County in northern Kentucky. This district consists of areas that remain rural (even with the rapid growth of the Cincinnati suburbs) with a few towns like Burlington, Petersburg, and Idlewild.

The representative is Republican Addia Kathryn Wuncher. Wuncher is very conservative and has received the “Defender of Economic Freedom Award” from Kentucky Club for Growth. She has worked to increase physical education in schools, increase child pornography from a misdemeanor to a felony, and increase education opportunities.

Outside of politics, Wuncher is a registered nurse and health professional. Wuncher is unchallenged for reelection.

Kentucky State House District 67

Candidates: Dennis Keene (D-Wilder)

2012 President: Romney 49%, Obama 48%
2014 Senate: McConnell 49%, Grimes 47%
2015 Governor: Conway 51%, Bevin 44%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 54%, Knipper 46%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 59%, Westerfield 41%

This district is located at the northern tip of Campbell County in northern Kentucky. Campbell County is the Ohio River County that has best retained its pre-suburban character. The suburban parts of Campbell County, located in this district, have become the “entertainment center” of northern Kentucky. Historically, the district was known for its casinos and gambling.

The representative here is Dennis Keene, a moderate Democrat who has served since 2005. Keene lists his priorities as economic development, job growth, and healthcare reform. Keene co-chairs the Licensing and Occupations Committee.

Keene is widely regarded as a prodigious fundraiser. Should the Democrats lose the minority, watch him as a possible candidate to replace some of the current Democrats to bring some new blood into the leadership.

He is unchallenged for reelection.

Kentucky State House District 68

Candidates: Joe Fischer (R-Fort Thomas)

2012 President: Romney 67%, Obama 31%
2014 Senate: McConnell 65%, Grimes 32%
2015 Governor: Bevin 59%, Conway 37%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 62%, Grimes 38%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 56%, Beshear 44%

We continue our tour of Northern Kentucky, staying in Campbell County. This district incorporates the outer suburbs of Cincinnati and then drifts south to pickup rural agricultural areas. The district’s main town, Alexandria, has the perfect motto: “Where city meets country.”

The district’s representative is Joe Fischer, a Tea Party Republican. Fischer has focused on raising the sales tax and on opposing abortion and gay marriage.

He is unchallenged for reelection.

Kentucky State House District 69

Candidates: Adam Koenig (R-Erlanger)

2012 President: Romney 59%, Obama 39%
2014 Senate: McConnell 59%, Grimes 37%
2015 Governor: Bevin 57%, Conway 38%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 58%, Grimes 42%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 53%, Beshear 47%

The district’s representative is Republican Adam Koenig. Koenig believes Kentucky’s tax system is designed for an agrarian economy rather than a dynamic service-based economy, wants to expand gambling, and adopt right-to-work.

He is unchallenged for reelection.

Kentucky State House District 70

Candidates: John VanMeter (R-Maysville) vs. John Sims (D-Flemingsburg)

2012 President: Romney 63%, Obama 36%
2014 Senate: McConnell 59%, Grimes 38%
2015 Governor: Bevin 55%, Conway 42%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 52%, Knipper 48%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 51%, Beshear 49%

This district is located in rural northeastern Kentucky, in the Bluegrass region. The area is known for its farms and its wide-open fields. Manufacturing and distribution centers are mostly in the small towns of the district like Maysville.

The current representative is Democrat Michael Denham. Denham has been a low-key representative since he first entered the legislature in 2000. In December 2015, Denham announced he would retire because of health reasons.

The Democratic candidate is John Sims Jr, a Fleming County Fiscal Magistrate and owner of a local Dairy Queen. The Republican is John VanMeter, a Maysville lawyer.

VanMeter got into the race because of concerns about debt and the pension system and is also concerned about overhauling the tax code. He is for repealing the prevailing wage and establishing right-to-work, which is not a popular position in this part of Kentucky. VanMeter has worked for former Senator Wayne Allard in Washington DC and is highlighting that experience. Sims is concerned about pensions, jobs, education and drug policy reform. Sims is highlighting his real world experience.

VanMeter has constantly turned in extremely strong fundraising reports. So far, he has raised $100K, spent $73K and has $27K still left in the bank. Sims has raised $66K, spent $41K and has $25K still left in the bank.

Vote patterns are likely to break down by geography in this district. VanMeter is from the biggest city in the district, Maysville. This city leans Democrat, so VanMeter might be able to neutralize this. Sims will probably win Fleming County meaning the winner of the district might come down to who wins Bracken and tiny Robertson County.

Right now, the district is a pure tossup and it is probably the most likely Democratic-held open seat to not switch hands.

Kentucky State House District 71

Candidates: Jonathan Shell (R-Lancaster)

2012 President: Romney 76%, Obama 23%
2014 Senate: McConnell 69%, Grimes 27%
2015 Governor: Bevin 68%, Conway 28%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 61%, Grimes 39%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 66%, Beshear 34%

The representative is Republican Jonathan Shell. Shell is considered an up and coming Republican and was tapped by Jeff Hoover to lead efforts to retake the House this year. Shell was widely lauded for his ability to recruit candidates in over 90 districts, something that hasn’t been done (ever?).

Shell is unchallenged for reelection.

Kentucky State House District 72

Candidates: Incumbent Sannie Overly (D-Paris) vs. Curtis Kenimer (R-Paris)

2012 President: Romney 58%, Obama 40%
2014 Senate: McConnell 49%, Grimes 47%
2015 Governor: Conway 52%, Bevin 44%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 61%, Knipper 39%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 57%, Westerfield 43%

This district is located just northeast of Lexington, in the heart of Bluegrass Country. Most of the region is known for its horse farms, its hemp, and its historic small towns.

The representative for this district is Sannie Overly, the Caucus Chair of the State House Democrats and the leader of the Kentucky Democratic Party. Overly was also Jack Conway’s running mate in 2015. As state representative, Overly has chaired a subcommittee that authorizes road construction projects and has also passed bills combatting human trafficking.

Overly is being challenged by horse farmer and 2014 congressional candidate Curtis Kenimer. Kenimer is likely on the ballot to prevent Overly from focusing solely on other races. Kenimer has raised $25K, spent $25K and has $684 in the bank. Overly has raised $58K, spent $52K and has $5K in the bank.

Safe D.

Kentucky State House District 73

Candidates: Incumbent Donna Mayfield (R-Winchster) vs. John Hendricks (D-Winchester)

2012 President: Romney 65%, Obama 33%
2014 Senate: McConnell 58%, Grimes 38%
2015 Governor: Bevin 56%, Conway 40%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 51%, Knipper 49%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 53%, Beshear 47%

The representative here is Republican Donna Mayfield. Mayfield is a pretty typical conservative Republican. Mayfield has raised $50K, spent $1K and has $49K in the bank.

The Democratic candidate is well-connected attorney John Hendricks. Hendricks attracted some attention during the primary, but seems to have faded over time. Hendricks is running on the need to create a fresh start in Winchester, Kentucky. Hendricks has raised $29K, spent $14K and has $16K in the bank.

Hendricks may do well in the city of Winchester, but Mayfield should crush him outside of the city and in the rural parts of Madison County.

Likely R.

Kentucky State House District 74

Candidates: Incumbent David Hale (R-Wellington) vs. James Davis (D-Mount Sterling)

2012 President: Romney 61%, Obama 37%
2014 Senate: McConnell 51%, Grimes 45%
2015 Governor: Bevin 54%, Conway 42%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 57%, Knipper 43%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 50%, Westerfield 50%

This district is located east of Lexington in Montgomery, Menifee, and Powell County. The area has a lot of conservative Democrats, who have historically supported unions.

Freshman Republican David Hale knocked off Democrat Richard Henderson in 2014, after it was revealed that Henderson had been to a cockfighting rally.

Because this district remains Democrat downballot, the state party is spending a lot of money to defeat Hale. Hale has realized that he is vulnerable and has voted accordingly – in fact he has a 13% (!) rating from the American Conservative Union. He supported the minimum wage increase, the sales tax increase, and the smoking ban. Hale recently sparked controversy when it was reported that he used state postage to solicit votes.

The Democratic candidate is Attorney James Davis.

Davis has a strong chance to win as he comes from the most populated county in the district (Montgomery). He will need to win a solid majority of the vote in that county to offset Hale’s expected monster showing in his small home county of Menifee.

Davis raised $54K, spent $52K and has $904 in the bank. Hale has raised $58K, spent $24K and has $33K in the bank.

Democrats really need to win this race to offset other expected losses elsewhere. If Republicans hold it on election night, it probably means they are having a good night.

Tossup.

Kentucky State House District 75

Candidates: Incumbent Kelly Flood (D-Lexington) vs. Gary McCollum (R-Lexington)

2012 President: Obama 56%, Romney 40%
2014 Senate: Grimes 60%, McConnell 37%
2015 Governor: Conway 64%, Bevin 30%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 70%, Knipper 30%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 69%, Westerfield 31%

This district is located in Lexington, contains the University of Kentucky, and some other areas south of downtown. Lexington’s economy remains strong and is anchored by Xerox, Lexmark International, Lockheed-Martin and IBM. Besides from the University of Kentucky, this district has some government employees and other professionals. I believe Rupp Arena is in this district (where the University of Kentucky basketball team plays).

The representative here is Democrat Kelly Flood, who is one of the three “Lexington Liberals.” Flood has focused on implementing Obamacare, preventing Governor Bevin from taking money from the University of Kentucky, investing in the arts, and protecting the environment.

Flood faces a rare challenge from Republican Gary McCollum, Assistant General Counsel to Alliance Coal. McCollum has proven a decent fundraiser, but his background is more suited for a rural district than an urban district.

I expect Trump to perform particularly poorly in the district as this is one of the wealthiest districts in Lexington. Hillary Clinton will win this seat and Jim Gray (who is mayor of Lexington) will likely win this district in a landslide. No chance for McCollum to win.

Safe D.

Kentucky State House District 76

Candidates: Incumbent Ruth Ann Palumbo (D-Lexington)

2012 President: Obama 54%, Romney 43%
2014 Senate: Grimes 57%, McConnell 40%
2015 Governor: Conway 66%, Bevin 34%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 65%, Knipper 35%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 65%, Westerfield 35%

This district is located northeast of downtown and consists of a lot of middle class residences.

The representative is Ruth Ann Palumbo, a Democrat, who has served since 1991. Palumbo is the longest serving woman in the Kentucky legislature. She is chair of the Economic Development Committee. Palumbo received some negative press in 2012 for letting her house (which she does not live in) become rundown.

She has a fairly liberal voting record and is unchallenged for reelection.

Kentucky State House District 77

Candidates: Incumbent George Brown (D-Lexington)

2012 President: Obama 71%, Romney 27%
2014 Senate: Grimes 73%, McConnell 25%
2015 Governor: Conway 77%, Bevin 23%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 75%, Knipper 25%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 75%, Westerfield 25%

This district is located in northwest Lexington and contains the minority areas of the city. The area has seen some more development in recent years, especially as Lexington’s population has moved outward towards the Fayette County line.

The representative here is Democrat George Brown, a former councilman working on issues of infrastructure, economic development, and investment in affordable housing. Brown is very liberal. He is unchallenged for reelection.

Kentucky State House District 78

Candidates: Incumbent Tom McKee (D-Cynthiana) vs. Mark Hart (R-Falmouth)

2012 President: Romney 63%, Obama 35%
2014 Senate: McConnell 57%, Grimes 37%
2015 Governor: Bevin 53%, Conway 42%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 50%, Grimes 50%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 51%, Behsear 49%

This district is located in the northern Bluegrass Region and includes Democratic areas of Georgetown in Scott County, and Harrison and Pendleton Counties. The area is predominantly agricultural and consists of horse farms.

The representative here is Democrat Tom McKee, who is Chairman of the Agriculture Committee. McKee has served in the State House since 1997 and has served in local elected office in Harrison County since 1978. His main goal is investing in rural communities and funding education and infrastructure projects. He is highlighting his seniority.

Despite McKee’s long career of service and high name recognition, this district is not exactly safe for Democrats. McKee has faced a Republican opponent each of the last three cycles, winning with 54%, 56%, and 54%. In 2014, he faced Falmouth Mayor and Republican Mark Hart. Hart’s lack of name recognition really hurt him, particularly in Harrison County.

Almost immediately after the 2014 election, Hart announced he would run again, hoping to build his name recognition and finally defeat McKee. Hart is focusing on the pension problem, this year. This seat has seen some funding from outside groups, suggesting it is competitive.

The question here is whether McKee can continue to run up by the margins in Harrison County. If he can, McKee will win again. If McKee’s margin comes down a bit, then Hart could win.

McKee has raised $39K, spent $16K and has $22K in the bank. Hart has raised $21K, spent $22K and has $-1K in the bank.

Tossup.

Looking down the road: McKee is now 75 and has had some health problems. When he does retire, this seat will likely flip to the GOP.

Kentucky State House District 79

Candidates: Incumbent Susan Westrom (D-Lexington) vs. Ken Kearns (R-Lexington)

2012 President: Obama 53%, Romney 45%
2014 Senate: Grimes 55%, McConnell 43%
2015 Governor: Conway 57%, Bevin 37%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 64%, Knipper 36%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 62%, Westerfield 38%

This district is located southeast of downtown Lexington. This district is composed mostly of middle class residential areas and is the site of most of the city’s current growth.

The representative here is Democrat Susan Westrom. Westrom is the lead author of the state smoking ban, a controversial bill in Kentucky politics. She has also worked on policies to improve the state’s child-protection system and worked to reform the Legislative Research Commission. She has received recognition from the Chamber of Commerce for her work to improve local economic growth.

She faces 1990, 2012, and 2014 candidate Ken Kearns in the general election. Kearns is involved in local politics in Fayette County.

Westrom should easily win in November. Safe D.

Kentucky State House District 80

Candidates: Incumbent David Meade (R-Stanford)

2012 President: Romney 73%, Obama 25%
2014 Senate: McConnell 65%, Grimes 31%
2015 Governor: Bevin 67%, Conway 29%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 58%, Grimes 42%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 64%, Beshear 36%

This district takes in Lincoln County and areas northwest of Somerset in Pulaski County. The district is part of deep red south-central Kentucky.

The representative is Republican David Meade, a realtor, who has served since 2013. He is unchallenged for reelection.

Kentucky State House District 81

Candidates: Incumbent Rita Smart (D-Richmond) vs. C. Wesley Morgan (R-Richmond)

2012 President: Romney 56%, Obama 42%
2014 Senate: McConnell 51%, Grimes 45%
2015 Governor: Bevin 49%, Conway 47%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 57%, Knipper 43%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 53%, Westerfield 47%

Businesswoman and Democrat Rita Smart is the representative for this district. Smart has focused on legislation for abused children and has also sponsored a bill to restore police power to arrest for misdemeanors. On other more national issues (i.e. minimum wage), Smart is a pretty standard liberal Democrat.

The Republican is 2014 candidate C. Wesley Morgan. Morgan is for eliminating the income tax, eliminating classes that are not critical to a degree, and is pro-gun and pro-right-to-work.

Richmond still likes its moderate Democrats, especially those that have a long history in the community. Smart fits the bill, and won her last two elections with 55 and 58% of the vote.

Smart has raised $70K, spent $28K and has $41K in the bank. Morgan has not submitted financial numbers.

Safe D.

Kentucky State House District 82

Candidates: Incumbent Regina Bunch (R-Williamsburg) vs. Bill Conn (D-Williamsburg)

2012 President: Romney 79%, Obama 20%
2014 Senate: McConnell 71%, Grimes 26%
2015 Governor: Bevin 70%, Conway 26%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 65%, Grimes 35%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 70%, Beshear 30%

Politically, the area is very Republican and has been extremely Republican for the last century (like the rest of south central Kentucky). The representative is Republican Regina Bunch. Bunch is a fairly standard conservative. Bunch has raised $5K and spent all of that.

Surprisingly for south-central Kentucky, the Democrats actually have a candidate. Teacher Bill Conn has filed here. He was last seen losing a State Senate seat in this area 81-19.

Safe R.

Kentucky State House District 83

Candidates: Incumbent Jeff Hoover (R-Jamestown)

2012 President: Romney 80%, Obama 18%
2014 Senate: McConnell 73%, Grimes 24%
2015 Governor: Bevin 72%, Conway 24%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 66%, Grimes 34%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 73%, Beshear 27%

This district is located in Cumberland, Clinton, Russell, and part of Pulaski County. This district is also part of deep red south-central Kentucky.

The representative here is Minority Leader Jeff Hoover. Hoover has served as State House leader since 2001, has been predicting that his party would take the chamber every year, and is the longest serving Republican leader in state history.

Hoover has received some flack from outside groups for poor leadership and political strategy (or lack of strategy?) but remains popular within the party conference. Politically, he is very conservative but is generally not seen as divisive as Democratic leader Greg Stumbo.

Hoover is unchallenged for reelection. He has announced he will step down as Republican leader if he remains in the minority after the November elections. I would not be surprised if he steps down from his seat, too.

Kentucky State House District 84

Candidates: Incumbent Fitz Steele (D-Hazard) vs. Chris Fugate (R-Chavies)

2012 President: Romney 79%, Obama 19%
2014 Senate: McConnell 67%, Grimes 30%
2015 Governor: Bevin 62%, Conway 34%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 52%, Grimes 48%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 55%, Beshear 45%

We move eastward to District 84, which is in the heart of coal country in the Appalachians. This district takes in Perry County and the famous Harlan County. This district is very poor, as are a lot of the mountain areas in East Kentucky.

Politically, this district is dominated by conservative, union-friendly Democrats. The representative is Democrat Fitz Steele. Steele is one of the most conservative, if not the most conservative member of the caucus, and has been rumored to be a party switcher. Steele now heads the powerful Natural Resources Committee in the State House, where he is focused on returning coal severance funds to Eastern Kentucky and to reforming education.

Pastor Chris Fugate is the Republican candidate. Fugate is concerned about coal, pensions, and abortion. This is a seat that should be a gimme for Republicans, especially if they can use the War on Coal to their advantage. Fugate has run a very strong campaign, and has been up on the radio airing ads. Third party groups have recently realized that this race is competitive and have begun directing money into this race.

Is this district ready for a Republican who supports coal or is it still willing to support Democrats because of its union heritage? That is the big question.

Trump will do very well here (can he beat Romney’s 19%?). This district seems to be trending in the wrong direction for Democrats, but Steele is popular enough that he could win.

Steele has raised $28K, spent $5K and has $23K in the bank, though his numbers have not been updated since early October. Fugate has raised $85K, spent $59K and has $33K in the bank.

Tossup.

Kentucky State House District 85

Candidates: Incumbent Tommy Turner (R-Somerset)

2012 President: Romney 82%, Obama 17%
2014 Senate: McConnell 74%, Grimes 23%
2015 Governor: Bevin 74%, Conway 22%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 67%, Grimes 33%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 73%, Beshear 27%

This district is located in the Cumberland Plateau and includes eastern Pulaski and western Laurel County. The area is extremely rural and heavily forested. The economy is dominated by outdoor recreation.

The representative is Republican Tommy Turner. Turner is an outdoorsmen who focuses on pension reform and infrastructure. Turner has served in the House since 1997 and is unchallenged for reelection.

Kentucky State House District 86

Candidates: Incumbent Jim Stewart (R-Flat Lick)

2012 President: Romney 78%, Obama 21%
2014 Senate: McConnell 70%, Grimes 28%
2015 Governor: Bevin 70%, Conway 27%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 63%, Grimes 37%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 68%, Beshear 32%

This district is located in Knox County and part of Laurel County in east central Kentucky. The area is known for its coal mining and outdoor recreation.

The representative here is Republican Jim Stewart, who has served since 1997. Stewart is unchallenged for reelection.

Kentucky State House District 87

Candidates: Incumbent Rick Nelson (D-Middlesboro) vs. Chad Shannon (R-Middlesboro)

2012 President: Romney 77%, Obama 22%
2014 Senate: McConnell 70%, Grimes 26%
2015 Governor: Bevin 59%, Conway 37%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 56%, Grimes 44%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 54%, Beshear 46%
2015 Treasurer: Nelson 73%, Ball 27%

This district is located in Bell County and parts of Harlan County in southeastern Kentucky. This is coal country, which means there are a lot of fiscally liberal, socially conservative Democrats. The biggest city, Middlesboro, is built entirely within a crater (the only city to claim this title!). In the late 19^th century and early 20^th century, Middlesboro was considered the gateway to the “Appalachian backcountry.” People came to Middlesboro to trade and connect with the outside world.

The representative is Democrat Rick Nelson, who has served since 2001. Nelson comes from a coal family and is one of the most conservative Democrats in the House. He chairs the Labor and Industry Committee. Nelson has focused on rebuilding from devastating floods that hit his district in 2011 and has wanted to increase financial literacy to underserved communities.

The Republican is Chad Shannon. Shannon is a very conservative businessman, who has done a strong job getting grassroots support in the district.

Nelson ran a disastrous statewide campaign for Treasurer in 2015. He lost statewide by 20 points, but still won his district by 46 points. This makes me confident that he can win, even as Eastern Kentucky zooms to the right. He remains incredibly popular and performed 95 points better than Barack Obama in 2012 (he beat Republican Josh Howard by 40 points while Obama lost by 55 points).

However, Donald Trump should do well here. And if Eastern Kentucky voters have decided to finally kick the Democrats out, Nelson’s popularity might not be able to protect him.

Nelson has raised $50K, spent $29K and has $21K in the bank. Shannon has raised $15K, spent $14K and has $1K in the bank.

Lean D, but Shannon can certainly win.

Kentucky State House District 88

Candidates: Incumbent Robert J. Benvenuti (R-Lexington)

2012 President: Romney 60%, Obama 38%
2014 Senate: McConnell 56%, Grimes 41%
2015 Governor: Bevin 49%, Conway 46%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 53%, Knipper 47%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 51%, Westerfield 49%

This district is located east of Lexington, and includes some suburbs, exurbs, and some areas that are still primarily rural.

The representative is Republican Robert Benvenuti, a local lawyer. Benvenuti has focused on what he calls “incoherent, illogical, unsustainable and irresponsible” policies of the Democratic Party. He wants to reduce the size of government, invest in education reform, and make government more transparent.

Benvenuti is unchallenged for reelection. Note that Grimes and Beshear won this seat in 2015, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Jim Gray wins this seat in 2016 (as he is mayor of Lexington). While Benvenuti has always overperformed, the Democrats probably should have recruited a challenger here.

Kentucky State House District 89

Candidates: Incumbent Marie Rader (R-McKee)

2012 President: Romney 77%, Obama 21%
2014 Senate: McConnell 70%, Grimes 27%
2015 Governor: Bevin 71%, Conway 25%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 65%, Grimes 35%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 69%, Beshear 31%

The representative is Republican Marie Rader. Rader is a pretty standard conservative Republican. She is unchallenged for reelection.

Kentucky State House District 90

Candidates: Incumbent Tim Couch (R-Hyden)

2012 President: Romney 84%, Obama 14%
2014 Senate: McConnell 76%, Grimes 21%
2015 Governor: Bevin 74%, Conway 24%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 70%, Grimes 30%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 74%, Beshear 26%

The representative here is conservative Republican Tim Couch. In 2008, Couch introduced a bill to ban anonymous posts on internet websites. He is unchallenged for reelection.

Kentucky State House District 91

Candidates: Incumbent Cluster Howard (R-Jackson) vs. Toby Herald (R-Beattyville)

2012 President: Romney 72%, Obama 26%
2014 Senate: McConnell 61%, Grimes 35%
2015 Governor: Bevin 61%, Conway 35%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 53%, Grimes 47%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 58%, Beshear 42%

The representative from 2003 to 2013 was Democrat Ted Edmonds, who relied on large margins out of Breathitt County, while the rest of the district went Republican. But population shifts and conservative Democrats switching to Republicans have put this seat in play in recent years. In a huge shock, Edmonds was ousted in 2012. The Republican replacing Edmonds was Gary Herald. Herald was conservative on almost every issue in the state legislature.

In 2014, Democrats recruited educational dean Cluster Howard to run. Howard was able to resurrect the old Edmonds coalition – with a huge win in Breathitt County, but poor showings everywhere else. He beat Gary Herald won by 13 votes total. Howard has been a pretty low-key member of the legislature, and notably authored a bill this year to investigate the illegal dumping of illegal waste in landfills in his district.

Howard is seeking reelection in 2016, and he has to try to resurrect his 2014 magic again. Essentially, he has to hope everything goes right in Breathitt County (>70% win in that county) to compensate for a poor showing elsewhere. But with Eastern Kentucky becoming more Republican by the month, it seems like Howard will have his work cut out for him.

Former Representative Herald is back for another campaign. Herald’s campaign is unique in that he seems to have no specific priorities for the district and instead believes that enacting national Republican priorities will trickle down (in a positive fashion) to his district. Whether you agree with him or not, it seems like an odd position to have. Howard has campaigned on this point, as he tries to aggressively localize the race.

Both campaigns do agree on some issue: the need for more investment in infrastructure in this historically impoverished district.

Both state parties believe this race will be competitive and have been spending money on negative ads while the candidates go positive.

Who wins? Donald Trump is undoubtedly very popular here and this district continues to move away from the Democratic Party. However, Howard showed he could win in 2014.

Howard has raised $46K, spent $11K and has $35K in the bank. Herald has raised $37K, spent $20K and has $17K in the bank.

Tossup, though if I was asked to pick a winner, I’d go for Herald.

Kentucky State House District 92

Candidates: Incumbent John Short (D-Hindman) vs. John C. Blanton (R-Salyersville)

2012 President: Romney 72%, Obama 26%
2014 Senate: McConnell 59%, Grimes 38%
2015 Governor: Bevin 55%, Conway 42%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 52%, Knipper 48%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 51%, Westerfield 49%

This district is located in coal country in eastern Kentucky. The district includes all of Magoffin and Knott County and parts of Pike County. The district is primarily rural and has fallen on hard times with the collapse of the coal industry (coal is now non-existent in Magoffin County).

The representative here is Democrat John Short. Short is the owner of a gun store in Hindman. Short was on nobody’s radar until earlier this year, when his name came up in a vote-buying scheme. Several local politicians were indicted. Short has never actually been accused of wrongdoing, but his name has been connected to this issue, which is not a good thing.

Short has focused on his community work, particularly his work in establishing an industrial park in Pike County. Short also wants to expand the Mountain Parkway as a tool of economic development. Short advocates taxing corporations to pay for the massive pension problem in Kentucky and wants to prohibit cuts to education spending. Short said he will vote for State Senator Ray Jones for President, rather than Hillary Clinton.

The Republican is John Blanton, a retired Kentucky State Police major. Blanton is campaigning on increasing economic development in the region by eliminating EPA regulations. He does admit that training former miners for new jobs is also important. Blanton says he will opt out of his legislative pension, if elected, and believes the government (and not the private sector) needs to solve the pension problem. Blanton has been quiet on the voter-buying allegations but has hit Short on his voting in lockstep with divisive House Speaker Greg Stumbo.

Who will win? Short will run up the vote totals in his home county of Knott, and Blanton may do the same in Magoffin. The question will be who wins Pike County, an area that Short has only represented since 2013.

Like the rest of coal country, Donald Trump is popular here, and he may carry Blanton to victory. On the other hand, Short has the name recognition and the experience.

Short has raised $76K, spent $58K and has $15K in the bank. Blanton has raised $102K, spent $90K and has $11K in the bank.

Tossup.

Kentucky State House District 93

Candidates: Incumbent Chris Harris (D-Forest Hills) vs. Norma Kirk-McCormick (R-Inez)

2012 President: Romney 76%, Obama 23%
2014 Senate: McConnell 64%, Grimes 33%
2015 Governor: Bevin 58%, Conway 39%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 53%, Grimes 47%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 51%, Westerfield 49%

This district is located in rural impoverished Martin County (where LBJ announced a War on Poverty) and Pike County, the largest county in the Appalachian Mountains. Pike County was one of two sites for the Hatfield-McCoy dispute of the 19^th century. Both counties have historically been reliant on coal but Pike County is big enough that it has other industries. Among them is a substantial banking sector.

Chris Harris, a Democrat, represents this district. Before winning this seat, Harris was an attorney and a county government official. In 2014, he beat Democrat Keith Hall in an extremely nasty primary (Hall, a coal operator, has since been convicted of bribing mine regulators). As a Representative, Harris has focused on expanding the Open Records Act to private utilities. Other than that, he has been a pretty standard rural Kentucky Democrat. In his campaign, Harris has focused on his experience bringing projects to the district and has been up on the air with television ads.

The Republican running against Harris is ex-vocational counselor and Republican Norma Kirk-McCormick. McCormick is running an ad claiming that Harris is waging a war on coal. McCormick is also focusing on economic recovery through things like high speed internet and infrastructure, and drug rehabilitation.

The race will be close. Harris is popular after serving in county government in Pike County but Pike has been trending to the right because of economic diversification (new industries with non-unionized employees) and the supposed War on Coal. Martin County is one of three counties in eastern Kentucky that is straight Republican downballot, so Harris is going to have to get a big margin out of Pike to win. Harris has raised $45K, spent $5K and has $40K in the bank. Kirk-McCormick has raised $40K, spent $38K and has $2K in the bank.

Tossup/Tilt D.

Kentucky State House District 94

Candidates: Incumbent Angie Hatton (D-Whitesburg) vs. Frank Justice II (R-Pikeville)

2012 President: Romney 77%, Obama 21%
2014 Senate: McConnell 65%, Grimes 32%
2015 Governor: Bevin 56%, Conway 40%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 51%, Grimes 49%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 50%, Westerfield 50%

This district is located in the heart of coal country, taking in Letcher County and parts of Pike County. Like the other coal seats, this area has historically been pro-union and impoverished.

The representative for this district is Democrat Leslie Combs. Combs has been a very vocal member during her time in the state legislature. She has been a leading advocate of the need to diversify the economy, in contrast to the coal obsession that some politicians have. Combs has also chaired the budget transportation committee, which has allowed her to take charge on expanding the Mountain Parkway. She has also sponsored legislation to expand public-private partnerships to boost economic development in Eastern Kentucky. On the final day of filing in 2016, Combs announced she would retire at the end of her term.

The Democratic candidate is Letcher County attorney Angie Hatton. Hatton is a moderate Democrat and a strong campaigner.

The Republican candidate is Pikeville Mayor Frank Justice II. Justice is an extremely strong fundraiser.

Who will win? Justice has the money, but Hatton is probably a stronger campaigner. Justice will run up the score in Pike County but Hatton will run up the score in Letcher County. Justice may get a bigger margin if he can make it about coal. Hatton may get a bigger margin if she can make the race as a referendum on Matt Bevin and talk about Justice’s support for getting rid of prevailing wage and for enacting right to work. Justice may get a bigger margin if he can tie Hatton to Obama and Clinton.

Hatton has raised $46K in the bank, spent $17K and has $29K in the bank. Justice has raised $142K (!), spent $134K and has $8K in the bank.

I’m going to go out a limb and say that Republicans are likely to pick this seat up. Lean R, though Hatton could win.

Kentucky State House District 95

Candidates: Incumbent Greg Stumbo (D-Prestonsburg) vs. Larry Brown (R-Prestonsburg)

2012 President: Romney 67%, Obama 31%
2014 Senate: McConnell 54%, Grimes 43%
2015 Governor: Conway 53%, Bevin 44%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 61%, Knipper 39%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 61%, Westerfield 39%

We now come to the most Democratic district in coal country – the only eastern KY seat that Jack Conway actually won. This seat takes in Floyd County. Its county seat, Prestonsburg, is known for its Mountain Arts Center, The Country Music Highway, and a technologically advanced planetarium. Like the rest of Eastern Kentucky, it has a heritage connected to coal and unions.

The representative for this district is Speaker of the House of Representatives Greg Stumbo. Except for a short period where he was Attorney General, Stumbo has represented this seat since 1980. Stumbo is known as a populist back home, but he is also somewhat of a politically divisive figure in Frankfort.

Stumbo has had a strange few months, to say the least. On Election Night 2015, Stumbo gave a bizarre sermon-like speech (YouTube: “Greg Stumbo meltdown”). He then publicly debated suing Democrats who had switched parties. But around March, things started to look up for him. He helped three Democratic candidates pull off wins in competitive state House races, watched as Matt Bevin embarrassed himself over the budget, fought for minimum wage increases, and became the voice of voters who opposed the Bevin education cuts. Recently, Stumbo announced he was setting up a committee to investigate whether Matt Bevin delayed infrastructure projects in districts where Democrats refused to switch parties. Some political observers consider it the first path on the road to impeachment.

Stumbo faces Attorney Larry Brown in the general election. Originally, many people expected Brown being on the ballot was the Republican way of preventing Stumbo from campaigning for other Democrats.

But there’s also been a dawning realization among the political class that Stumbo may lose. The Republican State Leadership Committee has begun to air ads criticizing Stumbo for getting rich by increasing state legislative pensions while Eastern Kentucky jobs disappeared. The Republicans have also tried to link Stumbo to Hillary Clinton’s comments about putting coal miners out of work.

Stumbo has hit back with ads from his wife, arguing that special interests from Louisville are trying to buy a House seat. Stumbo has also highlighted his seniority, and his opposition to Matt Bevin’s draconian education and budget cuts.

Stumbo has a huge financial advantage over Brown, as we move into the final week of the campaign. So far, Brown has raised $20K, spent $12K and has $12K in the bank. Stumbo has raised $139K, spent $110K and has $29K in the bank. Stumbo is also known for his connections all over Floyd County.

But Eastern Kentucky might have decided that this time, there is no difference between Stumbo and Clinton. In the 2016 primary, Stumbo beat generic Democrat James Rose by only 8 points, despite outspending him $171K to $34K. Additionally, every Republican wants to see Stumbo defeated. Watch for the Republican Party to pull out all the stops to defeat him in the coming days.

I put this race at Lean D, and it would certainly make the Republican victory a lot sweeter on election night if it meant defeating Bevin’s arch nemesis.

Kentucky State House District 95

Candidates: Incumbent Jill York (R-Grayson) vs. Josh McGuire (D-Grayson)

2012 President: Romney 64%, Obama 34%
2014 Senate: McConnell 55%, Grimes 41%
2015 Governor: Bevin 55%, Conway 41%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 52%, Grimes 48%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 51%, Beshear 49%

This district is located in Carter and Lawrence County. Coal mining used to be a huge industry here, but Carter is far enough north that it is not as prominent as in other districts.

This year, York faces small businessman and Democrat Josh McGuire, who seems to be running a low-key campaign. York’s base is in Grayson, and she should do well in the more Republican-leaning Lawrence County. York has raised $21k, spent $6K and has $21K in the bank. McGuire has raised $11K, spent $6K and has $4K in the bank.

Likely R.

Kentucky State House District 97

Candidates: Incumbent Hubert Collins (D-Wittensville) vs. William Scott Wells (R-West Liberty)

2012 President: Romney 73%, Obama 25%
2014 Senate: McConnell 61%, Grimes 35%
2015 Governor: Bevin 59%, Conway 37%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 54%, Grimes 46%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 56%, Beshear 44%

This district takes in Johnson, Morgan, and Wolfe County, all part of the coal country. Like other coal seats, this area has a fiscally liberal, socially conservative, pro-union history.

The representative for this district is Hubert Collins, who has served in the state legislature for 25 years. Collins is a typical eastern Kentucky Democrat - liberal to moderate on fiscal issues and conservative on social issues. Collins has also focused on combatting the drug epidemic in eastern Kentucky.

What might be most notable about Collins is his likability. Unlike other eastern Kentucky seats which Republicans have usually left unchallenged, Collins regularly faces competitive elections. He routinely wins by large margins, including in Johnson County, one of three eastern Kentucky counties that votes Republican even downballot.

The Republican is Scott Wells who is running on a pretty standard conservative platform. Wells has raised $9K, spent $3K and has $6K in the bank. Collins has not done well on the fundraising front – he has only raised $11K, spent $9K and has $41K in the bank (he raised over $100K in 2014).

That said, Hubert Collins is popular in the mountains and so he starts out as the overwhelming favorite in the general election. The only reason this isn’t Safe D is that district fundamentals would support a Republican. Collins will turn 80 this year, so Republicans may have a shot to pickup this seat in a few years. Likely D.

Kentucky House District 98

Candidates: Incumbent Lew Nicholls (D-Greenup) vs. Danny Bentley (R-Russell)

2012 President: Romney 59%, Obama 40%
2014 Senate: McConnell 51%, Grimes 45%
2015 Governor: Bevin 57%, Conway 40%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 51%, Knipper 49%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 51%, Westerfield 49%

This district is located in Eastern Kentucky, and includes all of Greenup County and a few precincts in Boyd County. Greenup County is far enough north that it is not part of Eastern Kentucky’s Coal Country. Despite this, the area shares some of the same characteristics as coal country: poverty, a mountain-based topography, heavy union presence (because of steel production in nearby Ashland) and local politics run almost exclusively by the Democratic Party.

The incumbent Democrat is Lew Nicholls, who beat the only countywide elected Republican 57-43 in a special election in March. Nicholls performed much better than most people expected in that election. Nicholls has received endorsements from most labor-affiliated groups in the county and has played up his opposition to Bevin’s budget.

He faces pharmacist and Republican Danny Bentley in the general election. Bentley has spent most of his campaign focused on the drug addiction that is hurting Eastern Kentucky. He is undecided on right-to-work.

Nicholls has raised $48K, spent $16K and has $32K left in the bank. Bentley has raised $37K, spent $25K and has $19K left in the bank.

My guess is that Nicholls will end up winning – his strong showing in March showed he connects well with the district and neither state party has taken any interest in the campaign here.

Likely D.

Kentucky State House District 99

Candidates: Incumbent Rocky Adkins (D-Sandy Hook) vs. Wendy Fletcher (R-Morehead)

2012 President: Romney 57%, Obama 40%
2014 Senate: McConnell 52%, Grimes 44%
2015 Governor: Bevin 54%, Conway 43%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 52%, Knipper 48%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 52%, Beshear 48%

This district is located in eastern Kentucky and is a little bit north of the prime coal mining area. It includes Elliott County, one of the most Democratic counties in Kentucky, Rowan County (home of Kim Davis), and conservative Lewis County. The area is known for its outdoor recreation, Morehead State University, country music, and some logging. The area is known for its heavy union support and its poverty.

The district’s representative is House Majority Leader Rocky Adkins. Adkins has achieved an almost saint-like status in Eastern Kentucky. Back in the 1970s, Adkins was a star basketball player at Elliott County High School and Morehead State University. In his 30 years in the state legislature, Adkins has earmarked millions of dollars for his district to improve infrastructure. He has focused a lot of time on issues of energy (where he advocates for renewable energy), healthcare (he holds a major fundraiser every year for cancer research), and education. The Huffington Post describes him as pursuing an “aggressive form of retail politics” that has allowed him to amass tremendous loyalty in the mountain region. I have heard a few people call him quite literally, the “king of the mountains.”

For the first time in recent memory, Adkins will face a challenge in the general election. The Republican running is nurse practitioner Wendy Fletcher, who is angry at the over-regulation from the Obama administration. She believes “God, health, family, and liberty” are keys to succeed in a free society and wants to increase government transparency.

Adkins has raised $130K, spent $149K and has an extraordinary $264K remaining in the bank. Fletcher has raised $14K, spent $7K and has $10K remaining in the bank. Both candidates have run positive campaigns.

The election results should be interesting. Adkins should easily sweep Elliott County (where he may get more than 85% of the vote) and Rowan County. But how big will his margins be there? The most populated county in the district is Lewis County, which never votes for Democrats, even at the local level. Additionally, this is the first time Adkins will be on the ballot in Lewis County. While Adkins is doing extensive outreach there, he is going to need good turnout and large margins out of Rowan and Elliott to win. Likely D, but district geography could create a possibility for a huge upset.

Kentucky State House District 100

Candidates: Incumbent Kevin Sinnette (D-Ashland) vs. Eric Chaney (R-Ashland)

2012 President: Romney 57%, Obama 41%
2014 Senate: McConnell 49%, Grimes 47%
2015 Governor: Bevin 51%, Conway 45%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 55%, Knipper 45%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 55%, Westerfield 45%

The representative is Democrat Kevin Sinnette. In the legislature, Sinnette has focused on sexual assault, sewer overflows, automobile insurance and the transportation of steel. The NRA and most unions have endorsed Sinnette.

He faces Republican Eric Chaney in the general election. Chaney is worried about over-regulation and is pro-life and pro-gun.

Sinnette has raised $32K, spent $1K and has $30K in the bank. Chaney has not filed campaign finance reports.

Ashland has always had a high Democratic base, and the state parties and outside groups have not gotten involved in this race. This leads me to believe that Sinnette is the heavy favorite for re-election. It is worth noting that Sinnette has considered retiring before, so I can see him making this his last election, especially if he finds himself in the minority next year.

Likely D.

Kentucky State House Primary Preview

GradyDem

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Saturday May 14, 2016 · 7:39 PM PDT

2016/05/14 · 19:39

On Tuesday, there will be primaries for 32 of the 100 seats in the Kentucky State House of Representatives. These elections will play a major role in determining the key fall battleground states.

The Kentucky State House of Representatives is the last chamber in the south controlled by Democrats, currently at 53D-47R. Republicans are aiming to become the majority party for the first time in over 90 years so that they can pass anti-abortion bills, right to work, and enact fiscally conservative budget reforms (including massive cuts to education and changes to the state pension system). Republicans are hoping that their massive candidate recruitment process and their better fundraising will result in them being able to do what they haven’t done despite much hype in the last few election cycles.

Democrats are hoping to maintain their majority. Despite a massive swing to the right in Appalachia, Democrats have only lost 5 seats in the Kentucky State House since 2010. Democrats are also riding high after 3 unexpectedly large wins in special State House elections earlier this year. Democrats have a well-oiled party machine run by Greg Stumbo and Sannie Overly, and have also gotten lucky from several Republican recruits dropping out of their races (once you drop out, you can’t be replaced on the ballot). Most Democratic incumbents are also entrenched in their respective districts.

The outcomes of several primaries could have major impacts on who wins.

Kentucky State House District 11

2012 President: Romney 55%, Obama 44%
2014 Senate: McConnell 51%, Grimes 47%
2015 Governor: Conway 50%, Bevin 48%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 57%, Knipper 43%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 59%, Westerfield 41%

This year, two Republicans are facing off for the right to take Watkins on in the general election. The first is James Buckmaster, a doctor and former Democrat (he won 39% in a Democratic primary against Watkins in 2014). Buckmaster has been overshadowed by City Commissioner Robby Mills, who is the strongest Republican to run for this seat in years. Mills is a well-known small businessman (he runs a dry cleaning business) and is running on a typical small government, traditional values platform. As a city commissioner, Mills has worked on the city’s financial issues and on infrastructure investment.

Buckmaster has raised $6K and spent $5K. Mills has raised $31K and spent $4K. I would expect Mills to win this race fairly easily, especially because of his name recognition and his longstanding commitment to the Republican Party.

This seat is still blue enough that it is going to be hard for Mills to knock Watkins off in the general election. It is worth noting that so far Watkins has mailed it in – raising only $2,300 (other Democratic incumbents are busy building up their warchests, regardless of what seat they are in). But for now, the general election is Likely D.

Kentucky State House District 16

2012 President: Romney 67%, Obama 32%
2014 Senate: McConnell 63%, Grimes 34%
2015 Governor: Bevin 60%, Conway 37%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 56%, Grimes 44%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 64%, Beshear 36%

This district is located in south-central Kentucky and includes Logan County, Todd County, and several precincts in Warren County. This district is primarily agricultural and includes several towns.

This year, two Republicans are running for the right to face King in the general election. Attorney Ami Brooks has much of the establishment support and is running on a campaign of cutting government spending and reforming the state’s juvenile code to protect dependent, neglected and abused children. Brooks faces Attorney Jason Petrie, who ran as an Independent against King in 2014. Brooks has raised $4K and spent $1K, while Petrie has raised $12K.

If I had to guess, I would say that Petrie is slightly favored in the primary, because of name recognition. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see Brooks win. She lives in the part of the district that has the highest amount of Republicans eligible to vote in the primary.

The general election is expected to be extremely close. If Republicans can’t win here, they probably can’t take the majority. Tossup.

Kentucky State House District 23

2012 President: Romney 66%, Obama 33%
2014 Senate: McConnell 59%, Grimes 37%
2015 Governor: Bevin 65%, Conway 35%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 52%, Grimes 48%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 54%, Beshear 46%

Shortly before the filing deadline, Bell announced his retirement. Both parties will hold a primary. The Democratic primary is between Glasgow City Councilman Joe Trigg, who was a former Sergeant in the Air Force and formed a non-profit to feed low-income families in Louisville with produce from farms in Barren County. Trigg wants to focus on infrastructure and a balanced budget if he gets elected. He is African American and was recruited to run by Bell and State House Speaker Greg Stumbo. Trigg claims to be a moderate and has raised just $2K.

Trigg faces Glasgow attorney Danny Basil, who has campaigned on a platform of strengthening the state’s retirement system. Basil has raised $21K and spent $14K.

Who has the edge here? It is hard to say. Trigg has the name recognition and the support of the Democratic establishment but Basil has run a far better campaign. It will be very embarrassing for the party machine if Trigg loses (since they specifically recruited him). I will go with Basil.

The Republican primary is a race between former principal Steve Riley, and former member of the Army National Guard Freddie Joe Wilkerson. Riley is focusing on developing the state’s workforce and expanding opportunities to go into skilled trade. Wilkerson wants to promote transparency and reduce bureaucracy. Riley has way outraised Wilkerson, $33K to $3K. I give the edge to Riley, though low Republican turnout could make things interesting.

Kentucky State House District 24

2012 President: Romney 63%, Obama 35%
2014 Senate: McConnell 56%, Grimes 41%
2015 Governor: Bevin 56%, Conway 41%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 51%, Knipper 49%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 52%, Beshear 48%

This year, two Republicans are running for the right to take on Mills. Richard Treitz ran in 2014, and this year has been endorsed by the libertarian oriented Take Back Kentucky. Treitz is pro-industrial hemp, pro-2^nd amendment and pro-life. Treitz faces William Reed of Hodgenville, Kentucky. Reed is a former Deputy Circuit Clerk and has also served on the Governor’s Commission on Family Farms. Reed is running on a campaign of fiscal conservatism and cutting government waste.

It is hard to know who is going to win here. Reed has raised $6K and Treitz has raised $10K. A majority of the voters come from Treitz’s Green County, but Reed’s name recognition in LaRue may give him a boost.

Kentucky State House District 26

2012 President: Romney 66%, Obama 32%
2014 Senate: McConnell 60%, Grimes 37%
2015 Governor: Bevin 58%, Conway 38%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 54%, Grimes 46%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 54%, Beshear 46%

The Republican primary here is between incumbent Russell Webber and former State Senate candidate (and Trump supporter) Brenda Board. Webber is conservative, though not overwhelmingly so. He has a 70% rating from the American Conservative Union. He has opposed the minimum wage increase and opposed banning smoking in public places but has supported the Obama administration’s education program and limiting the maximum contribution to a candidate. Webber has raised $3K and spent $7K. Board is unknown, and has raised $0 and spent $0.

Webber should easily win the primary and will have no opposition in the general election.

Kentucky State House District 28

2012 President: Romney 54%, Obama 45%
2014 Senate: McConnell 49%, Grimes 48%
2015 Governor: Conway 51%, Bevin 45%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 57%, Knipper 43%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 57%, Westerfield 43%

This district takes in the southern tip of Jefferson County and mainly consists of sprawling suburban and exurban neighborhoods. The population tends to be predominantly working class.

The two Republicans running here are Don Dolson and Michael Payne. Dolson is a member of the Jefferson County Republican Party State Committee. Dolson is endorsed by the Kentucky Right to Life Association. He faces Michael Payne, who is an engineer. Payne is running on a pro-2^nd amendment platform. He also wants to freeze college tuition rates and invest in infrastructure and tourism. Dolson has raised $750 while Payne has raised $5K. Payne should have the slight edge, though Dolson may have some support among establishment Republicans.

The general election will be competitive. The district itself does not have a lot of swing voters. In his past races, Miller has generally won with around 55% of the vote. His district did get bluer after redistricting, so he might be helped that way. This race starts out at Likely D and may change based on Miller’s performance during the campaign as well as how strong a campaign the Republican runs.

Kentucky State House District 33

2012 President: Romney 57%, Obama 41%
2014 Senate: McConnell 55%, Grimes 43%
2015 Governor: Bevin 52%, Conway 45%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 51%, Knipper 49%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 51%, Westerfield 49%

The Republican here is Ron Crimm, who was first elected in 1996. Crimm is considered a moderate Republican and actually has a lifetime rating of only 46% from the American Conservative Union. Just this last year, he voted for the smoking ban, voted for the sales tax and voted for Obama’s “Race to the Top.” Crimm is opposed to increasing the minimum wage and is pro-life and pro-2^nd amendment. Crimm has raised a surprisingly small amount of money, $12K. He has spent $9K.

2016 might be the year that the music finally dies for Crimm. He faces a vigorous challenge from Jason Michael Nemes, whose dad is Bevin’s Deputy Labor Secretary. Nemes has raised an eyepopping $89,000 and has spent $12,000. He has supposedly made it to most homes in the district, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes on the air with ads. Nemes seems to be a typical conservative who is running to end lawmakers’ pensions (contrary to what Crimm is doing), bring more transparency to government, and fight for socially conservative values. Nemes also criticizes Crimm’s length of service in Frankfurt. Nemes is also well known from having successfully challenged the House Democratic majority’s first redistricting plan.

Adding intrigue to this race is the presence of a third candidate, who is running well to the right of Crimm and Nemes: Andrew Schachtner. Schachtner is the former Head of the Louisville Tea Party, who is fighting to reform pensions, get rid of Kynect and defund Planned Parenthood. Schachtner has raised $6K and spent $1K. Schachtner has also said that new blood is important in Frankfurt.

Who will win? Crimm has the name recognition after years of service, but Nemes has the money, and as the Courier Journal op-ed said, the passion and confidence. I will give the narrow edge to Crimm since the non-incumbent vote is likely to be split between Schachtner and Nemes. But I would not be surprised to see a nice Nemes win too.

Whoever wins the Republican primary will face small business owner Rob Walker. Walker is a conservative Democrat, who is part of Matt Bevin’s transition team. Walker has raised $24K. That suggests that he will give Crimm the toughest fight he’s had in a long time. But this is still one of the most Republican areas of Louisville, so I give the advantage to the Republicans. Likely R.

Kentucky State House District 37

2012 President: Obama 50%, Romney 49%
2014 Senate: Grimes 52%, McConnell 45%
2015 Governor: Conway 54%, Bevin 43%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 60%, Knipper 40%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 60%, Westerfield 40%

This district is located directly west of the Louisville airport, and includes industrial white-working class areas and areas near Churchill Downs.

Two Republicans are running for the right to take on Donohue: Kurt Enger who is a self-described “liberal Republican” running to fix the heroin epidemic and Mark Wilson, who is a veteran. Wilson has raised $4K while Enger has barely raised anything. Advantage Wilson.

Either Republican faces long odds to defeat Donohue in the general election. Likely D.

Kentucky State House District 38

2012 President: Obama 54%, Romney 44%
2014 Senate: Grimes 54%, McConnell 43%
2015 Governor: Conway 56%, Bevin 40%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 61%, Knipper 39%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 62%, Westerfield 38%

This district is located just west of District 37 and stretches from the urban business center south to suburban areas near the Bullitt County line.

The representative is Denver Butler. Despite his dad being close with all the powerbrokers in the state when he was a state representative, Denver has always had a contentious issue with former Speaker Pro Tempore Larry Clark and current Speaker Greg Stumbo. In December 2015, Butler switched parties, claiming that Democrats were not interested in passing bills focusing on his top priorities. The real reason, according to insiders, was that the Democratic establishment had decided not to endorse his brother in the open 46^th District in Louisville.

Two Democrats are running to take back this seat. One of them is McKenzie Cantrell, who is a graduate of the Emerge Kentucky program, which is dedicated to electing more women to the Kentucky State Legislature. Emerge Kentucky has a pretty horrible record – in 2014, they threw a ton of money at races around the commonwealth and only managed to pull off one victory. Cantrell is a lawyer and has received the endorsement of United Mine Workers. She has focused on raising the wage for working people and providing family care to working families. Cantrell has raised $25K and spent $12K.

Her opponent is Metro Councilman Dan Johnson, whose district only partially overlaps with this seat. Johnson has had a long history in south Louisville and has served in elected office in since 1992. It is worth noting that his district only partially overlaps with this seat, so he has a lot of new voters to get to know. Johnson is also not the most ethical person. Several stories have been written over the last few years alleging that Johnson owes a considerable amount of debt. Questions have also been raised about improper campaign payments and purchases of jewelry. His legislative assistant has faced a misdemeanor charge of theft. In 2015, foreclosure was filed on Johnson’s home. Johnson has raised only $5K and spent $4K, which is extremely embarrassing considering the entire state Democratic Party is behind him.

Who will win the primary? I’m really not sure. I guess I’ll give the edge to Johnson based on establishment backing, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Cantrell win either. This is going to be one of the top Democratic targets in the general election. This seat is pretty overwhelmingly Democratic and Republicans almost never win seats that Obama wins in urban Louisville. Denver Butler will try to ride on his name recognition (his father was a State Representative before him) as well as his well financed campaign account (he has raised $44K so far).

However, fundamentals suggest that this race starts at Likely D takeover.

Kentucky State House District 41

2012 President: Obama 77%, Romney 22%
2014 Senate: Grimes 75%, McConnell 23%
2015 Governor: Conway 75%, Bevin 22%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 79%, Knipper 21%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 79%, Westerfield 21%

The representative is Thomas Riner, who has served in the State House for 34 years. Riner is white. Riner is a pastor and has a terrible relationship with the state Democratic Party. In 2015, he brought to light a sexual assault scandal that implicated several of his fellow representatives. Riner then recruited Liberty Counsel to assist with Rowan County Clerk Kim Davis’s legal defense. He has now stopped attending Democratic caucus meetings. Fellow State Representatives from Louisville have taken the unusual decision of lobbying for his defeat, saying he does not represent his district on issues ranging from choice to privacy to treating all people fairly regardless of sexual orientation. Riner has refused to raise money for his race.

Riner’s opponent is former Metro City Councilwoman Attica Scott, who is black. Scott is running on supporting a statewide fairness law, supporting automatic restoration of voting rights for felons and supports increasing the minimum wage. Scott has raised $21K and spent $22K.

A third Democrat, Phil Barker, is an insurance executive, campaigning on education, job creation and public safety. Barker has raised $4K and spent all of that.

It is hard to know who will win this race. Riner has years and years of built in name-recognition and is popular for his anti-corruption crusade in both the black areas and the white areas of this seat. But by not fundraising, he is also giving an opening to Attica Scott. Another issue might be that Riner might be able to squeak by because of split opposition.

I will give the edge to Riner for now.

No Republican filed for the general election. Safe Democratic.

Kentucky State House District 43

2012 President: Obama 76%, Romney 23%
2014 Senate: Grimes 73%, McConnell 26%
2015 Governor: Conway 72%, Bevin 25%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 77%, Knipper 23%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 78%, Westerfield 22%

Owens faces perennial candidate Ray Barker in the primary, and should easily win. One Republican has filed for this race: John Mark Owen. The Democrat will easily win here in November.

Kentucky State House District 46

2012 President: Obama 54%, Romney 44%
2014 Senate: Grimes 56%, McConnell 42%
2015 Governor: Conway 57%, Bevin 40%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 62%, Knipper 38%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 62%, Westerfield 38%

This district is located in the southern area of Louisville and is home to the suburban sprawl that dominates southern Jefferson County.

Both sides have primaries here. The Democratic primary is between Clark-endorsed Allen Gentry, who is a scientist, small businessman and spends his time working with athletes with disabilities. Gentry has been endorsed by a number of labor groups and said his top priorities are education reform, and economic growth. Gentry also wants to expand Kynect. Gentry has raised $28K and spent $14K.

Gentry faces retired teacher Allen Schuler, whose goal is to reform education, enact tax reform and stop right to work. Schuler also takes a nuanced approach to some of the more contentious social issues. Schuler has raised $2K and spent almost all of that money.

Alan Gentry is the favorite to win the primary.

The Republican side is a battle between Eric Crump and Bill Dudley. Dudley is a former union member and worker in the manufacturing industry and is pro-life, against right-to-work, supports gun rights, and wants to fight corporate greed and consumer fraud. Dudley wants to reinstate the estate tax, tax other luxury services, and close loopholes on big corporations. Dudley has raised $1.7K and spent about half of that.

Eric Crump is a small business owner who is campaigning on fiscal responsibility, quality education, and increasing jobs. Crump has raised $5K and spent $3K. I give the slightest of advantages to him.

Like other Kentucky seats, Republicans struggle to win anything that Obama won fairly convincingly. Therefore, this race starts out at Likely D, and will probably require a blunder by Gentry to become more competitive.

Kentucky State House District 48

2012 President: Romney 58%, Obama 41%
2014 Senate: McConnell 56%, Grimes 43%
2015 Governor: Bevin 49%, Conway 48%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 52%, Knipper 48%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 53%, Westerfield 47%

Both parties have primaries here. On the Democratic side, attorney and teacher Maria Sorolis is running on infrastructure investment and education reform that will foster investment. Steve Sturdevant is a small businessman and engineer who wants to reduce regulatory red tape, rebuild infrastructure and invest in education. Sorolis has raised $4K and spent $1K. Sturdevant has raised nothing and spent nothing. Advantage Sorolis.

Who will win the general election? This area has a well-financed Republican Party and tends to like Republicans like Fleming who are fiscally conservative (and less concerned about social issues). But a Democratic candidate that tries to be fiscally moderate definitely has a chance – Jack Conway came very close to winning this district and Democrats might be willing to actually vote for their party now that the uber-popular DeWeese is not on the ballot. The race will start at Likely R because of fundamentals, Fleming’s name recognition and Fleming’s campaign skills, but this race is definitely an opportunity for Democrats looking to go on offense this fall.

Kentucky State House District 49

2012 President: Romney 65%, Obama 32%
2014 Senate: McConnell 59%, Grimes 38%
2015 Governor: Bevin 57%, Conway 39%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 54%, Grimes 46%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 54%, Beshear 46%

The representative for this district is Linda Howlett Belcher. Belcher has bragged about her ability to bring money into the district to address the region’s rapidly growing transportation needs. Belcher is in her second term (though non-consecutive) and faces Jonathan Cacciatore in the Democratic primary. Cacciatore does not seem to be running any kind of campaign. Belcher beat Cacciatore in the 2014 primary 83-17. Belcher is the odds on favorite this year as well.

Politically, the general election should lean towards Republicans, especially as Kentucky continues to realign. The state party recruited popular County Judge Executive Melanie Roberts to face Belcher in the general election. This race looked like it would be very difficult for Democrats until last week, when Roberts dropped out of the race. Belcher now faces a challenge from Jennifer Stepp, a Republican who has raised no money, spent money, and has no campaign infrastructure in place. I think Stepp is a member of the Opioid Addiction Team in Bullitt County, but I’m not sure. The race begins as a Tossup, because of fundamentals. But if Stepp does not literally step it up after the primary, this race looks like it could move towards Team Blue.

Kentucky State House District 54

2012 President: Romney 68%, Obama 30%
2014 Senate: McConnell 62%, Grimes 35%
2015 Governor: Bevin 63%, Conway 33%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 55%, Grimes 45%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 60%, Beshear 40%

The representative here is Republican Daniel B. Elliott, who won his first term in a special election in March, 58-41. Elliott has been a consistent conservative in the State House, and has been endorsed by various pro-life and pro-gun groups. Elliott is working on economic development and a bill to stop flooding, which is a severe problem in Casey County. Elliott faces Stephen Evans, a former principal from Danville and Chris Pennington, a civil engineer. Evans has publicly criticized Elliott for supporting education cuts. Pennington is pro-life and wants to protect pensions and cut tax and registration costs for truck drivers.

All three Republicans are from Boyle County, meaning nobody can claim Casey County as their “homefield.” I think Elliott wins, because of name recognition. He is also the only candidate to have raised any kind of money in the race. But in a low turnout primary, I wouldn’t be surprised if he loses.

The winner of the primary will take on Attorney Bill Noelker. Noelker is a good campaigner, but this seat (Casey County) is too Republican for him to have a chance. Safe R.

Kentucky State House District 55

2012 President: Romney 70%, Obama 28%
2014 Senate: McConnell 64%, Grimes 32%
2015 Governor: Bevin 62%, Conway 34%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 57%, Grimes 43%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 60%, Beshear 40%

Politically, the region has many conservative Democrats, who have slowly drifted towards the Republican Party over the last decade. The Jessamine part of this district is solidly Republican.

The representative here is Kim King. King is very conservative, pro-gun, and is fiscally conservative. She has a 71% lifetime rating from the American Conservative Union, and notably broke with them over enforcing Obama’s education standards. King is receiving a primary challenge from Bradley Vaughan of Washington County (King is from Mercer County). Vaughan has raised no money and does not seem to be a serious candidate. Advantage King.

Kentucky State House District 58

2012 President: Romney 63%, Obama 36%
2014 Senate: McConnell 61%, Grimes 37%
2015 Governor: Bevin 57%, Conway 39%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 53%, Grimes 47%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 54%, Beshear 46%

The candidates for the Republican primary are County Judge Executive Rob Rothenburger and businessman Kendall Law. Law is campaigning on a platform of reducing waste, fraud, and abuse, modernizing Medicaid, and conducting performance-based budgeting. Rothenburger seems to be running as a generic conservative. Amazingly, both Rothenburger and Law have raised no money. I would give the edge to Rothenburger, only because of name recognition on Tuesday.

Whoever wins the Republican primary will face teacher and Emerge Kentucky Democrat Cyndi Powell Skellie in the general election. Skellie has raised $12K, and has the backing of State Democratic Party Chair Sannie Overly. However, this seat does not easily elect Democrats, and Skellie will need Rothenburger or Law to make several mistakes to win. Safe R.

Kentucky State House District 64

2012 President: Romney 67%, Obama 31%
2014 Senate: McConnell 66%, Grimes 31%
2015 Governor: Bevin 61%, Conway 35%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 64%, Grimes 36%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 58%, Beshear 42%

The representative for this district is Tom Kerr, who was a Democrat from 1985 to 2004 and has been a Republican since then. Kerr is a generic conservative. He will retire at the end of the session.

Several Republicans are running in Kerr’s place. Kim Moser is the director of the Northern Kentucky Office of Drug Control Policy, who has spent the last few years fighting the heroin epidemic (a big issue in Kentucky). Moser has also said she wants to be involved in tort reform registration. Kerr has endorsed Moser.

Moser faces a primary with Sean P. Fitzgerald who is a businessman and lawyer fighting against government outreach on economic issues. Moser has raised $53K and spent $25K, while Fitzgerald has raised $5K and spent $4K.

Advantage Moser.

The Democratic contest is between unknown Democrat Larry Varney and Independence City Councilman Lucas Deaton. Deaton claims some of his top values include “Family First,” “Faith in God,” and “Justice will prevail.” Deaton and Varney have raised no money and spent no money. Lean Deaton because of his name recognition.

Safe R in the general. This is one of the few areas that Republicans can count on downballot.

Kentucky State House District 70

2012 President: Romney 63%, Obama 36%
2014 Senate: McConnell 59%, Grimes 38%
2015 Governor: Bevin 55%, Conway 42%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 52%, Knipper 48%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 51%, Beshear 49%

Democrats promptly selected John Sims Jr, a Fleming County Fiscal Magistrate, to be their candidate. Sims has raised $25K and spent $8K.

Republicans have a primary between John VanMeter, a Maysville lawyer and James E. Johnson, a small farmer. Both candidates are running on similar conservative platforms. Johnson has raised no money, while VanMeter has raised $57,150 and spent $34,394. VanMeter has the advantage.

The general election will be competitive. Republicans need to win here if they want to win the State House (winning open seats is easier than beating incumbents). This is an area that really likes its homefield candidates, and VanMeter could get an advantage out of Mason County, which is a fairly Democratic leaning area in the district. Tossup for now, and will change later, as the candidates change.

Kentucky State House District 71

2012 President: Romney 76%, Obama 23%
2014 Senate: McConnell 69%, Grimes 27%
2015 Governor: Bevin 68%, Conway 28%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 61%, Grimes 39%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 66%, Beshear 34%

Shell faces an interesting challenge from Buzz Carloftis, the former County Judge Executive of Rockcastle County. Carloftis may have an edge up in that he has name recognition there and most of the Republican primary voters come from Rockcastle County. Carloftis has only raised $4K for the campaign though. Shell has the financial advantage and is known as a tenacious campaigner.

I think I will give the edge to Shell, but I wouldn’t be totally shocked if Carloftis wins. Needless to say, Democrats would love to have the representative who is trying to defeat them lose his race in the primary and not even make it to a possible Republican majority next year.

Kentucky State House District 72

2012 President: Romney 58%, Obama 40%
2014 Senate: McConnell 49%, Grimes 47%
2015 Governor: Conway 52%, Bevin 44%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 61%, Knipper 39%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 57%, Westerfield 43%

This district is located just northeast of Lexington, in the heart of Bluegrass Country. Most of the region is known for its horse farms, its hemp, and its historic small towns.

Horse farmer and 2014 congressional candidate Curtis Kenimer is challenging Overly. Kenimer faces a primary challenge from Phil D. Copher. Kenimer has raised $16K and spent $8K while Copher has not raised or spent any money.

Advantage Kenimer.

Sannie Overly should easily hold this seat in the general election (Safe D), though Kenimer’s presence will prevent her from investing time into helping other Democrats.

Kentucky State House District 73

2012 President: Romney 65%, Obama 33%
2014 Senate: McConnell 58%, Grimes 38%
2015 Governor: Bevin 56%, Conway 40%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 51%, Knipper 49%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 53%, Beshear 47%

The representative here is Republican Donna Mayfield. Mayfield is a pretty typical conservative Republican. Local businessman Les Yates is challenging Mayfield. Yates says he will stand up for the constitution if elected to office. Mayfield has raised $15K; Yates has raised $3K. Advantage Mayfield because of name recognition.

The Democratic primary is interesting here. Well-connected attorney John Hendricks filed for this seat way back in August of last year and was joined by Greg Stumbo, which many thought was a indicator that Democrats were serious about winning back this seat. Hendricks then managed to double Mayfield’s fundraising, bringing in $31K. Hendricks faces unknown Democrat Kenneth Blair in the primary. Advantage Hendricks.

While it is a difficult seat for Democrats, Mayfield could definitely lose with a strong campaign to bring conservative Democrats back into the fold. Likely R for now, but bares watching as the year evolves.

Kentucky State House District 81

2012 President: Romney 56%, Obama 42%
2014 Senate: McConnell 51%, Grimes 45%
2015 Governor: Bevin 49%, Conway 47%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 57%, Knipper 43%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 53%, Westerfield 47%

The Republican primary here is between veteran and community activist Gus LaFontaine and businessman and 2014 candidate C. Wesley Morgan. LaFontaine is emphasizing right to work, substance abuse, veterans issues, and burdensome government regulations. Morgan is for eliminating the income tax, eliminating classes that are not critical to a degree, and is pro-gun and pro-right-to-work. Morgan has raised $4K and spent $2K while LaFontaine has spent $4K and spent $1K.

My best guess is that Morgan wins, because of his name recognition.

The general election will not be easy for the Republican. Richmond still likes its moderate Democrats, especially those that have a long history in the community. Smart fits the bill, and won her last two elections with 55 and 58% of the vote. Likely D.

Kentucky State House District 82

2012 President: Romney 79%, Obama 20%
2014 Senate: McConnell 71%, Grimes 26%
2015 Governor: Bevin 70%, Conway 26%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 65%, Grimes 35%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 70%, Beshear 30%

This district is located in Whitley and Laurel County in South-central Kentucky. It is the first district that we come to that is within the Cumberland Plateau and the Appalachian mountain region. Whitley County is known for its recreational opportunities in the Daniel Boone National Forest.

She faces Republican farmer Alex Patrick in the primary. Patrick is the grandson of a former Whitley County Sheriff. Patrick is in favor of drug law reform and term limits. Patrick has raised no money and spent no money for his campaign.

Advantage Bunch.

Surprisingly for south-central Kentucky, the Democrats actually have a candidate. Teacher Bill Conn has filed here. He was last seen losing a State Senate seat in this area 81-19. Safe R in the general.

Kentucky State House District 84

2012 President: Romney 79%, Obama 19%
2014 Senate: McConnell 67%, Grimes 30%
2015 Governor: Bevin 62%, Conway 34%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 52%, Grimes 48%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 55%, Beshear 45%

Steele faces Kenneth Hall, the head of the Perry County Cemetery Board of Directors. Hall is campaigning on a platform of investing in infrastructure and expanding tourism, two ways he thinks Eastern Kentucky can recover from falling coal jobs. Hall has raised no money and spent no money for his election.

Pastor Chris Fugate is the Republican candidate. This is a seat that should be a gimme for Republicans, especially if they can use the War on Coal to their advantage. But Fugate does not appear to have an active campaign (though he has raised $5K). Steele is popular, but might be rusty from not having faced a Republican in a few cycles. Lean D, with the potential to change.

Kentucky State House District 91

2012 President: Romney 72%, Obama 26%
2014 Senate: McConnell 61%, Grimes 35%
2015 Governor: Bevin 61%, Conway 35%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 53%, Grimes 47%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 58%, Beshear 42%

In 2014, Democrats recruited educational dean Cluster Howard to run. Howard was able to resurrect the old Edmonds coalition – with a huge win in Breathitt County, but poor showings everywhere else. He won by 13 votes total. Howard has been a pretty low-key member of the legislature, and notably authored a bill this year to investigate the illegal dumping of illegal waste in landfills in his district.

In 2016, Howard must try to resurrect his 2014 victory again. Essentially, he has to hope everything goes right in Breathitt County (>70% win in that county) to compensate for a poor showing elsewhere. But with Eastern Kentucky becoming more Republican by the month, it seems like Howard will have his work cut out for him. Herald has only raised $5K for reelection, which is less than impressive. Tossup in the general election.

Who will face him? There is a Republican primary between former Representative Gary Herald and Estill County Schools Superintendent Randall Christopher. Both seem to be standard conservative Republicans. Herald has raised $5K while Christopher has raised $16K. Herald has the name recognition but Christopher comes from a more populated county and has more money. Anybody’s guess who wins, but I lean towards Christopher.

Kentucky State House District 93

2012 President: Romney 76%, Obama 23%
2014 Senate: McConnell 64%, Grimes 33%
2015 Governor: Bevin 58%, Conway 39%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 53%, Grimes 47%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 51%, Westerfield 49%

Harris faces a primary challenge from coal miner Douglas Sayers. Sayers has been endorsed by the United Steelworkers, is a member of the NRA, and is pro-life. Sayers has criticized Harris for moving his law office to West Virginia to evade county taxes. Sayers has also campaigned on reforming Martin County’s broken water system.

Harris has raised $55K and spent $10K. Sayers has raised $19K and spent $17K. My guess is that Harris will win the primary.

In the general election, this race could be interesting. Harris is not entrenched and Martin County almost never votes for Democrats. That means Harris will have to count on a large margin out of Pike County, which is possible, but is becoming harder and harder. However, Harris is helped by the fact that Republicans are running Norma Kirk-McCormick, an unknown Republican from Martin County. McCormick has raised $2K and is focusing on economic recovery through things like high speed internet and infrastructure, and drug rehabilitation in her campaign.

Tossup based on district fundamentals, with a potential to reassess as the election season continues.

Kentucky State House District 94

2012 President: Romney 77%, Obama 21%
2014 Senate: McConnell 65%, Grimes 32%
2015 Governor: Bevin 56%, Conway 40%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 51%, Grimes 49%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 50%, Westerfield 50%

This district is located in the heart of coal country, taking in Letcher County and parts of Pike County. Like the other coal seats, this area has historically been pro-union and impoverished.

Democrats have a primary between pharmacist and Pike County Chamber of Commerce member Joel Thornbury and assistant Letcher County attorney Angie Hatton. This district will likely depend on who can get their base out to the polls. Hatton has raised $18K and spent $16K. Thornbury has raised $52K and spent $30K. If Hatton can carry Letcher by a large enough margin, she’ll win. If Thornbury can carry Pike by a large enough margin, he’ll win. Small advantage to Thornbury, but could go either way.

Republicans have a primary between former Pikeville Mayor Frank Justice II, Pikeville trial attorney Philip Wheeler, retired parole officer Wesley Doughman and businessman Colin Fultz. Fultz has been in trouble with the University of Kentucky in the past for pursuing a federal trademark regulation that included the word “Kentucky.” Justice has raised $76K and spent $66K, Fultz has raised $3K and spent $2K, Doughman has raised $1.1K and spent $734 and Wheeler has raised $26K and spent $25K.

Very few Republicans will cast votes in Letcher County, so this race will be decided in Pike County. Both Wheeler and Justice are very well connected. I’d say Justice, based on his name recognition in Pikeville, but would not be surprised if Wheeler won.

The general election will be competitive. Republicans think they can win this seat back, since it is an open seat. Thornbury is a better candidate for Democrats from a fundraising perspective. However, Hatton has the potential to win Letcher County big, which could offset Justice and Wheeler’s lead in Pike County. On the other hand, Thornbury could hold down the Republican lead in Pike County, or even win it. Ultimately, there are too many candidates to reasonably predict what the general election will look like. Tossup, with a race ratings change coming after the primary.

Kentucky State House District 95

2012 President: Romney 67%, Obama 31%
2014 Senate: McConnell 54%, Grimes 43%
2015 Governor: Conway 53%, Bevin 44%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 61%, Knipper 39%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 61%, Westerfield 39%

Stumbo faces former State Representative James “Jimmy” Rose in the Democratic primary. Rose has hit Stumbo on the fact that he is regularly out of the district, while the district remains in poverty (Stumbo spends most of his time in Frankfort). Rose has also said he wants to strengthen veteran programs and claims he is a conservative. Stumbo has campaigned on his experience, his support of the Mountain Parkway, his support of unions, his support of Kynect, and his aim to protect public education from Governor Bevin’s cuts. Just last week, Stumbo announced he would sue Bevin over his veto of a budget that did not cut education as fully as Bevin had hoped.

Stumbo is taking the challenge seriously. He has raised $132K and spent $80K. Rose has raised $29K and spent $26K. Stumbo should be favored to win, but it will be interested to see how many protest votes go to Rose. If Stumbo only barely hangs on, or even if Rose gets 40% or so, questions might arise about whether Stumbo is the appropriate person to lead the House Democrats. Stumbo is also most associated with the national Democratic agenda (even if he is pro-coal), so I would expect Rose would get the votes of some of the more conservative Democrats, particularly coal miners. If Rose gets a substantial percentage of the vote, that could also signal that coal miners are unhappy with Democratic leaders, which could translate into serious losses in Eastern Kentucky at the local level in the fall.

Whoever wins the Democratic primary will face Attorney Larry Brown, a Republican, in the general election. Brown being on the ballot will mean that Stumbo will have to pay attention to his home district. But the likelihood of Stumbo actually losing is extremely low. Safe D in the general.

Kentucky State House District 97

2012 President: Romney 73%, Obama 25%
2014 Senate: McConnell 61%, Grimes 35%
2015 Governor: Bevin 59%, Conway 37%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 54%, Grimes 46%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 56%, Beshear 44%

This district takes in Johnson, Morgan, and Wolfe County, all part of the coal country. Like other coal seats, this area has a fiscally liberal, socially conservative, pro-union history.

The Republican primary here is between William Scott Wells of Morgan County and Frankie Wayne Spencer of Morgan County. Spencer is campaigning on God First, school safety, tourism investment and investment in agriculture (kind of unusual in a mostly mountain-based district). Spencer has also made a point of discussing the War on Coal, which I guess makes sense, but has never worked against Collins before. Scott Wells seems to be a pretty standard conservative.

Spencer has raised $3K and Wells has raised nothing. Wells does have some residual name recognition from being a primary loser in 2014, so either of the two candidates could win this. Slight advantage Spencer, perhaps.

Hubert Collins starts out as the leader in the general election. The only reason this isn’t Safe D is that district fundamentals would support a Republican. Collins will turn 80 this year, so Republicans may have a shot to pickup this seat in a few years. Likely D.

Kentucky State House District 99

2012 President: Romney 57%, Obama 40%
2014 Senate: McConnell 52%, Grimes 44%
2015 Governor: Bevin 54%, Conway 43%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 52%, Knipper 48%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 52%, Beshear 48%

For the first time in recent memory, Adkins will face a challenge in November. The two Republican candidates are nurse practitioner Wendy Fletcher and ordained minister and Kim Davis supporter Randy Smith. Fletcher opposes Kynect and Obamacare while Smith claims our constitution is being shredded to pieces. Fletcher has raised $7K and spent $2K while Smith has raised $1K and spent almost all of that. I’m not really sure who will win. Both candidates are from Rowan County, but the majority of the Republican votes will be cast in Lewis County. Smith has certainly made a name for himself supporting Kim Davis, so that could help him.

The general election will be interesting. Adkins should easily sweep Elliott County (where he may get more than 85% of the vote) and Rowan County. But how big will his margins be there? The most populated county in the district is Lewis County, which never votes for Democrats, even at the local level. While Adkins is doing extensive outreach there, he is going to need good turnout and large margins out of Rowan and Elliott to win. Likely D, but district geography could create a possibility for a huge upset.

Kentucky State House Special Elections

GradyDem

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Sunday March 06, 2016 · 11:02 AM PST

2016/03/06 · 11:02

On Tuesday, voters in 4 State House districts will go to the polls to pick new Representatives. Two seats are vacant after Democratic incumbents left to work in the Bevin administration. The other two seats are open because Republican Ryan Quarles left the State House to become Agricultural Commissioner and Republican Mike Harmon left the State House to become State Auditor.

The State House is currently 50D-46R. If Republicans win all 4 special elections, it would throw the chamber into turmoil. It is unknown what would occur, but it is possible that extremely partisan Democrat Greg Stumbo would be removed from the Speaker’s Chair. It is possible that there would be a power sharing agreement until November. Another issue is that Democrat Tom McKee (D-Cynthiana) is currently away from the State House because he is recovering from heart surgery. It is possible that the State House could be 50R-49D for a week or two, possibly throwing more chaos into the process.

From a policy perspective, these 4 elections could not have a bigger impact. At stake is whether Matt Bevin gets his fiscally conservative budget, whether Kentucky becomes right to work, whether the prevailing wage gets repealed, whether a number of anti-abortion laws get passed, whether various criminal justice reform bills get passed, and whether other conservative bills get passed.

The 4 special elections will set the stage for what is sure to be an extremely nasty campaign season as Democrats try to continue their 90+ year hold on the Kentucky State House. Democrats are openly warning that Republicans want to quote “turn Kentucky into another regressive Southern state” while Republicans are arguing that Democrats do not have new ideas, are holding the state back from true economic growth, and are ethically corrupt.

The special elections will give us context for what will occur in November:

If Democrats win 4 seats and lose 0 seats, they will almost assuredly keep the State House.
If Democrats win 3 and lose 1, they will likely keep the State House.
If Democrats win 2 and lose 2, the State House is 50/50 in November.
If Democrats win 1 and lose 3, they will likely lose the State House.
If Democrats win 0 and lose 4, they are almost assuredly going to lose the State House in November.

Most prognosticators think the end result is likely to be 2R-2D or 3R-1D. Only Greg Stumbo has mentioned the possibility of Democrats winning more than 2 seats, and he said it seemed unlikely. On the flip side, few analysts think Republicans will win all 4 seats.

Follow me below for profiles of individual races.

Kentucky House District 8 – Democratic Open Seat

2012 President: Romney 54%, Obama 45%
2014 Senate: McConnell 54%, Grimes 44%
2015 Governor: Bevin 49%, Conway 48%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 53%, Knipper 47%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 60%, Beshear 40% (Westerfield’s home)

Republican baselines: 56% needed in Trigg County, 48% needed in Christian County.

The Democratic candidate is Jeff Taylor. Taylor is a retired TVA member and the current Chairman of the Christian County Democratic Party. He is black, which could help Democrats get low turn-out voters to the polls. Taylor has campaigned against repealing the prevailing wage and against right to work legislation. Taylor has raised $79K and spent $41K.

The Republican candidate is Walker Wood Thomas. Thomas is a Hopkinsville businessmen and civic leader. Thomas has been endorsed by Matt Bevin and has emphasized his pro-gun and pro-life record. Thomas is for right to work and Matt Bevin’s budget. Thomas has raised $50K and spent $343.

It is hard to know who will win on Tuesday. Of the four special elections, this race has been the most “under the radar.” Taylor has the advantage in that Democrats have a high base in this district (Even Obama received 45% of the vote). On the other hand, minority turnout is expected to be extremely low. It is quite possible that if Taylor loses the special, he could come back and win the general election in 2016 with higher turnout. Thomas, meanwhile, has run a stronger campaign and has been assisted by outside cash.

If I had to pick a winner, I’d probably give the slightest of advantages to Taylor. But it would not surprise me if Republicans can pick this one up on Tuesday.

Kentucky House District 54 – Republican Open Seat

2012 President: Romney 68%, Obama 30%
2014 Senate: McConnell 62%, Grimes 35%
2015 Governor: Bevin 63%, Conway 33%
2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 55%, Grimes 45%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 60%, Beshear 40%

Democratic Baseline: 57% needed in Boyle County, 35% needed in Casey County

The candidates in the special election are two attorneys: Commonwealth Attorney Bill Noelker (D) and Attorney and former Bunning Staffer Daniel Elliott (R).

By all accounts, Noelker has run the better race. He has focused on his role as a “Victims Advocate” and his personal background as a Navy fighter pilot rather than on more divisive issues like right to work or Bevin’s budget. Noelker has been a great fundraiser, raising $94K and spending $66K. He has appeared on TV and has also devoted money to a GOTV effort.

Elliott has run a lower key campaign, focusing on fighting “crippling government overreach” and protecting “Kentucky values.” Elliott has secured the endorsement of Matt Bevin and former Representative (and now State Auditor) Mike Harmon. Elliott has appeared on television and has raised $51K and spent $44K.

Noelker’s great campaign can only carry him so far in this deep red seat. For Noelker to win, he will need a big enough margin in Boyle County to offset the huge Republican margins expected out of Casey County. This is unlikely because Daniel Elliott is from Boyle County (so Noelker will not have a home field advantage in Boyle).

District fundamentals and a strong dislike of Democrats means that Elliott has the clear advantage in this district. This is clearly the least likely seat to go to Democrats on Tuesday. I do expect this race to be closer than fundamentals might suggest.

Kentucky House District 62 – Republican Open Seat

2012 President: Romney 61%, Obama 37%
2014 Senate: McConnell 56%, Grimes 40%
2015 Governor: Bevin 52%, Conway 43%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 51%, Knipper 49%
2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 50%, Beshear 50%

Democratic Baselines: 57% needed in Fayette County, 48% needed in Owen County, 49% needed in Scott County

Scott County is a mix of Republicans and Democrats, while Owen County is a traditional rural county controlled by Democrats. The two Fayette County precincts have a slight lean towards the Democrats.

The candidates are Democrat Chuck Tackett, a former county magistrate and 2014 candidate, and Phil Pratt, a businessman. Tackett has tried to avoid calling himself a typical Democrat, instead saying that he is “pro-family” and “pro-business.” He opposes Bevin’s budget. Pratt has campaigned with popular State Agriculture Commissioner Ryan Quarles (who held the seat before running in 2015) and has campaigned on typical conservative principles: reducing government regulations, pro-NRA, and pro-life. Pratt has secured the endorsement of Damon Thayer, the popular State Senate Majority Leader.

This race has turned nasty in recent weeks as conservative outside groups have run ads accusing Tackett of increasing his salary while in state office.

Pratt has raised $85K and spent $52K, while Tackett has raised $36K and spent $7K.

This is a very hard race to rate. Tackett has been on the ballot before, and in a low-turnout special, that could help him win. But this seat has continued to trend to Republicans. In 2014, Ryan Quarles easily beat Tackett while Democrats were doing well in State House races in other parts of the state. Moreover, the Democratic machine in this area is weaker than it is in the coal country (perhaps because of less union members).

Based on Kentucky’s trend to the right and Pratt’s financial advantage, I give this race to Pratt on Tuesday. However, it wouldn’t surprise me if Tackett manages to win.

Kentucky House District 98 – Democratic Open Seat

2012 President: Romney 59%, Obama 40%
2014 Senate: McConnell 51%, Grimes 45%
2015 Governor: Bevin 57%, Conway 40%
2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 51%, Knipper 49%
2015 Attorney General: Beshear 51%, Westerfield 49%

Baselines: The four precincts in Boyd County are slightly more Democratic than Greenup County

The candidates are Greenup County Commissioner Tony Quillen (R) and retired Judge Lew Nichols (D). Quillen is one of the best candidates Republicans could find in this district. He has been elected countywide since 1998 while Nichols has been out of office for a while and thus may have lower name recognition.

Both candidates have run typical campaigns, though Quillen has aggressively argued that he is against right-to-work (which plays well in this labor-heavy area). Quillen has also emphasized fighting drug abuse (a big issue in the mountains) and his opposition to the so-called “War on Coal.” Nicholls has received endorsements from most labor-affiliated groups in the county and has played up his opposition to Bevin’s budget.

This race has larger ramifications than just who wins. The Democrats have managed to prevent Republicans from winning almost every State House seat in Eastern Kentucky over the last few years, even as coal country has zoomed to the right on the national level. If Republicans win here, it might suggest that the Democratic Party’s “Eastern Kentucky Firewall” is slowly coming apart and that the Republican Party might be able to make gains in rural East Kentucky in November.

The two top Democrats in the State House, Greg Stumbo and Rocky Adkins, are from Eastern Kentucky. They have a personal incentive in continuing the trend of Eastern Kentucky electing Democrats, especially Adkins, who is facing his most competitive election in decades (and who could be exposed as being more vulnerable if Quillen wins this seat). To that end, the entire Democratic machine has spent big on this race. Stumbo, Adkins, Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes, and State Representative Kevin Sinnette (D-Ashland) have all appeared at events for Nichols.

The union-heavy presence in this district as well as the Democratic advantage in registration (D+22) makes me believe that Nichols is narrowly favored on Tuesday. Political prognosticators agree that of all four House races, Democrats are most likely to win HD-98. However, Quillen’s superior name recognition and history of getting elected countywide means he should not be counted out on Tuesday.

Poll

90 votes Show Results

How many seats will Democrats win on Tuesday?

90 votes Vote Now!

How many seats will Democrats win on Tuesday?

1 or 2

66 votes

3 or 4

24 votes

Downballot Kentucky Primary Preview

GradyDem

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Sunday May 17, 2015 · 4:50 PM PDT

2015/05/17 · 16:50

Over the last few weeks, much of the attention in Kentucky has been dedicated to the gubernatorial primary. But there are several downballot elections on both sides of the aisle occurring on Tuesday.

I want to profile them here. Financial numbers are cycle to date.

Before I look at each race (which are below the fold), I want to take a geographic look at what counties primary voters come from.

First, the Republicans:

Now, the Democrats:

GradyDem

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Monday December 08, 2014 · 5:28 PM PST

2014/12/08 · 17:28

It started at the end of 2013. Republicans had picked up a traditionally Democratic seat in the Western Coal Country of Kentucky. Confident party leaders predicted that this was the beginning of the end for Greg Stumbo and the Democratic Party’s long 80+ year control over the State House.

Nearly a year later, as the dust settled on the 2014 election, it became clear that the Republican Party had not met their goal. As Democrats across the South were getting shattered on election night, Kentucky Democrats managed to preserve their majority, without one net loss.

In this diary, I am going to analyze some of the themes I saw in this year’s State House elections. Part I will discuss the overriding trends that led to the Democrats keeping control. The first few themes will look at the shortcomings of the Republican Party and the last few themes will remind Democrats why their time might be limited.

Part II will offer an individual district by district analysis and look to see whether a 2016 takeover by Republicans is possible.

Theme 1: Republicans didn’t try.

Despite State House Minority Leader Jeff Hoover’s confident statements that Republicans were going to take the majority, his actions and his state party’s actions reflected something else.

Republicans left 25 Democratic incumbents completely unchallenged this year! While it would be expected to see some unchallenged seats particularly in safe Democratic areas, most of the unchallenged incumbents were in Tossup or even Lean R seats. Here are some notable facts:

•Republicans left two House seats open (HD-16 and HD-22) that 2011 Democrats running for statewide office could not win, even as they were winning statewide by 20 points. Wilson Stone’s HD-22 includes Allen County, a county that has Republican DNA dating back nearly a century (like most counties in Southern Kentucky)

•Republicans left nearly every seat in Southeastern Kentucky unchallenged (mounting to 9 seats), some of which have zoomed to the right in recent years. They even failed to find a challenge to Democrat Chris Harris who represents one county (Martin) that never became unionized and has thus been Republican for a generation.

•Two other notable misses for Kentucky Republicans were Fitz Steele’s HD-84 (20% Obama, 30% Grimes) and Rick Nelson’s HD-87 (22% Obama, 26% Grimes).

•Republicans left Dennis Keene (HD-67) unchallenged. This is a seat in Northern Kentucky, one of the home bases of the state party that Barack Obama did not win.

•Republicans left John Tilley (HD-8) in Hopkinsville unchallenged. This area has severe midterm election dropoff, particularly among minorities.

Theme 1.1: Republican candidates dropped out

Republicans did have one semi-good thing to say about their candidate recruitment this cycle. Following the filing deadline in January, I was surprised to see that Republicans had managed to field candidates against every single Democrat within Jefferson County (Louisville), including those Democrats in black majority districts.

And then it started to unravel.

Kentucky law says that once a candidate drops out, the state party is not allowed to replace him or her and thus the opposing candidate automatically wins. Over the course of the summer, Republicans watched their candidates drop out in HD-28, HD-30, HD-37, HD-41 and HD-44. HD-28 is a suburban seat that Barack Obama did not win and HD-37 is a seat Obama barely won. While it is unlikely that either seat would have flipped this cycle, you'll never find out if you don't recruit candidates that want to stay in the election until November.

Theme 2: Where Republicans ran strong campaigns, they did surprisingly poorly.

The fact that Kentucky Republicans had conceded about half of their plausible pickup opportunities was well known when filing ended in January 2014. But what was shocking was how poorly candidates did that were supposed to be running great campaigns and were backed up by third party conservative groups.

Why did Democrats running against Republicans in tough seats do so well? They relentlessly nationalized the elections in a way that did not work in West Virginia in 2014 or Arkansas in 2012. They obtained endorsements from union groups, gun rights groups, Chamber of Commerce groups, and other interest groups. And some of them were better funded.

Let’s look at some examples.

•The 3rd State House District covers the city of Paducah, an area famous for its quilt museum and underground music culture. Republicans had managed to win three very downballot-Democratic districts in Western Kentucky for the first time in a generation in 2012, so they thought they would try for this one. The incumbent Gerald Watkins was helped by the fact that his district, unlike the others, included a swath of urban Paducah. But it also included some of the most Republican areas in Western Kentucky (southern McCracken County). He was not a good fundraiser and was outraised early by local Republican and realtor Randy Bridges. But Watkins out-campaigned Bridges, and managed to win by 8 points on Election Night.

•The 6th State House District is the last rural House district held by Democrats in Western Kentucky. The incumbent is Will Coursey. Republicans believed at the start of the campaign season that this would be an easy pickup because Coursey was embroiled in a sex scandal. They recruited Keith Travis, an administrator at a local hospital to challenge Coursey. Coursey took the threat seriously, raising tons of money, airing tv ads, crisscrossing his district and touting endorsements from Steve Beshear and others. Coursey also highlighted his local work bringing jobs to the district and hit Travis on his “job-killing” at a local hospital. Travis hit Coursey on the gas tax, Obamacare, and pledged to resolve the pension crisis. Travis was helped by outside conservative groups. In the end, one of the seats where Republicans spent the most amount of money was not even close. Coursey won by a surprisingly large 12 points.

• The 13th State House District takes in the city of Owensboro, which has gradually become more interested in voting for Republicans in recent years. Republicans noticed that Democrat Jim Glenn had managed to win his last two elections by the skin of his teeth (less than 300 votes.) So they recruited political novice and Businessman Alan Braden to the seat. Braden managed to keep par with Glenn in the money race and in the campaign race. I don’t really understand why Glenn (who is a black liberal Democrat) won here, but he did so by a surprisingly comfortable 5 points. Perhaps it was because Allison Lundergan Grimes topped out at 48%, and Glenn has always managed to overperform the top of the ticket by 2 or 3 percentage points.

•And perhaps the biggest fail of them all was the 39th State House District, which is located south of Lexington. 20 years ago, this district was mainly agricultural but has since become suburban as Lexington has become a magnet for business. Republicans have long bragged that all they would have to do to win this district is have popular Democrat Bob Damron retire. After all, this isn’t a district full of conservative Democrats. Damron decided to retire this cycle and Democrats nominated popular mayor Russ Meyer, who was opposed by real estate agent Jonah Mitchell. Jessamine County has one of the strongest economies in the state, and Meyer, to his advantage, used that. On Election Day, Jonah Mitchell’s campaign could not even get 45% of the vote in a district that should be Safe R (Obama: 33%),

Theme 3: Democrats were helped by redistricting

Because of lawsuits, the Kentucky House map (drawn by Democrats) did not go into place until this cycle. It created a bunch of new open seats and caused other incumbents to retire. In the end, Democrats held on to two open seats (western HD-10 and suburban Louisville HD-49), which helped to pad their majority. Republicans had to spend a lot of time campaigning for open seats rather than focusing on Democratic incumbents.

Theme 4: The War on Coal message didn’t work.

The “War on Coal” message has obviously caught on in national elections, despite the fact that most state leaders (Democrats and Republicans) will tell you that the number one thing Eastern Kentucky needs is economic diversification. They will also tell you that the War on Coal should be more aptly renamed the “War on Appalachia” since Kentucky’s western coalfields (more economically competitive coal here) are still doing just fine. It is interesting to see the contrasting rhetoric at play in state and national elections (with Hal Rogers being the bridge between the two.)

Now, how do we know the War on Coal was a bust in this year's election? In the Democratic primary, coal operator Keith Hall faced Pike Magistrate Chris Harris. Hall tried to run the War on Coal campaign against Harris, who claimed that health and worker safety came first. In the end, Harris beat Hall by three points.

In the general election, Republicans left most seats unchallenged in Eastern Kentucky. But in the counties where there was a Republican on the ballot, he or she relentlessly tried to nationalize the race and talk about the War on Coal. To say it went badly is an understatement.

Republican Bobby McCool got 42% in Johnson County, 28% in Morgan County, and 30% in Wolfe County in his bid to defeat Democrat Hubert Collins. Incumbent Republican Gary Herald tried using the coal message as a reason for why Democrat Cluster Howard should not be elected. In the only coal-mining county in the district, Howard won by nearly 50 points, enough to eek out a 14 vote win district-wide.

Kentucky was certainly unique in its rejection of candidates talking about the War on Coal. Just across the border in West Virginia, thirty two year incumbent and Democrat Truman Chafin lost his reelection bid to Republican who raised almost no money. His loss is almost entirely attributable to the War on Coal.

So if the War on Coal didn't move votes, what did in Eastern Kentucky? To me, the number one indicator of whether a candidate wins in Eastern Kentucky is whether they are willing to be fiscal liberals in an economically depressed area as well as whether they are endorsed by unions. That large part was crucial to the re-election of Republican Jill York of Carter County, the only Republican to represent Eastern Kentucky. York was helped by a weak opponent and union endorsements.

Not-A-Theme 5: Mitch McConnell’s reelection hurt downballot Kentucky Republicans.

This is the statement that has been given by the Kentucky State Republican Party. The logic goes that Mitch McConnell and Rand Paul were focused on the Senate election so they couldn’t spend time knocking off State House Democrats.

This does not take into account the fact that numerous outside conservative groups spent money in State House races, Rand Paul dedicated time and effort to fundraising for local Western Kentucky candidates and McConnell sometimes won by 15 to 20 points while Democratic State House incumbents were on their way to a landslide win.

Despite the fact that the election did not go well for Republicans, there were some issues for Democrats too…

Theme 6: Emerge Kentucky was a failure.

Democrats made a big point of talking up “Emerge Kentucky,” a pro-women interest group that would train local mayors and business owners to run for the State House. They ended up recruiting Ashley Miller (HD-32), Debbie Barber (HD-36), Gretchen Hunt (HD-48), Audrey Haydon (HD-50), Jacqueline Coleman (HD-55), Rita Smart (HD-81) and Creasa Reed (HD-88) to run for State House.

Besides from Smart, who is a popular two-term candidate from Richmond, not one of the Emerge candidates was able to pull of victory. Some of the losses were embarrassing: Debbie Barber lost by 38 points, Gretchen Hunt lost by 16 points, Audrey Haydon and Ashley Miller lost by 7 points, and the much hyped Jacqueline Coleman could barely manage to get 35% of the vote.

Democrats will want to keep expanding the playing field in future elections, but they are not going to do so with Emerge candidates.

Theme 7: Democrats have some incumbents who are due for retirement.

One of the things that few people have talked about is that a lot of incumbent State House Democrats are getting up there in age. It is infinitely easier for Republicans to pickup open seats, and there should be plenty in the years to come:

•Hubert Collins, HD-97, aged 79 (35% Grimes, 25% Obama), eastern KY

•Thomas McKee, HD-78, aged 74 (37% Grimes, 35% Obama), eastern KY

•Charles Miller, HD-28, aged 75 (49% Grimes, 45% Obama), Louisville suburbs

•Terry Mills, HD-24, aged 65 (41% Grimes, 35% Obama), Central Kentucky

•Jody Richards, HD-20, aged 77 (46% Grimes, 48% Obama), Bowling Green

•Tommy Thompson, HD-14, aged 66 (37% Grimes, 32% Obama), rural west KY

•Jim Glenn, HD-13, aged 67 (48% Grimes, 46% Obama), Owensboro

•David Watkins, HD-11, aged 72 (47% Grimes, 44% Obama), rural west KY

Additionally, Democrat Rick Nelson (HD-87) is running for State Treasurer. His seat would likely flip (26% Grimes, 22% Obama.)

Theme 8: Democrats should be worried long term.

It is clear that the state of Kentucky is trending in the wrong direction for Democrats.

What started as a promising possibility to capture a US Senate seat this cycle ended in a 15 point loss. While nobody will be forgetting Allison Lundergan Grimes’s horrendous campaign, the fact that even a local Democrat could barely get 40% of the vote should be concerning to Kentucky Democrats.

One of the positive trends for State House Republicans was their consolidation of gains in Hardin County. They knocked off longtime Democrat Jimmie Lee of Elizabethtown (one of two Democrats to go down on Election Night). Republicans have a stronghold on every area of the state that is growing.

In terms of seats to target, Democrats are also maxed out. They can target some seats in Western Kentucky that are historically Democratic by registration but 1st term and 2nd term Republicans did well there this year. They can target one Louisville seat and maybe try to get Jill York's seat back (the only Republican to represent Eastern Kentucky.) But for the most part, Democrats do not really have anymore offensive opportunities.

Greg Stumbo’s caucus was saved this year partly by luck, partly by help from Republicans and partly by amazing local campaigns. But none of these trends are stopping the fact that Kentucky is reddening and popular Democratic incumbents will eventually leave office. I doubt it will be very long before the State House is in Republican hands. And once it flips, the House will be in Republican hands for a generation.

Poll

172 votes Show Results

How long until the Kentucky House flips?

172 votes Vote Now!

How long until the Kentucky House flips?

Before 2016

7 votes

2016

45 votes

2018

62 votes

2020

20 votes

It will never flip. Greg Stumbo is a genius.

38 votes

Arkansas State Senate District 21 Special Election

GradyDem

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Sunday January 12, 2014 · 12:25 PM PST

2014/01/12 · 12:25

On Tuesday, voters in State Senate District 21 will go to the polls to pick their new State Senator. Last summer, Democratic Senator Paul Bookout abruptly resigned after it was discovered that he had used campaign funds for personal use. The Ethics Committee concluded that he had violated four campaign finance laws.

The Democratic nominee is Steve Rockwell, a businessman and political science professor at Arkansas State University. The Republican nominee is John Cooper, a retired businessman and former candidate for the State House of Representatives.
 Here’s a primer of what to expect.

The District
Senate District 21 encompasses most of Craighead County, which is located in Northeastern Arkansas.

History
In 1859, Senator William A. Jones attempted to create a new county from Greene, Mississippi, and Poinsett counties. Thomas Craighead, who represented the Delta just east of where the new county was to be created, opposed the plan. Craighead believed that the new county would take money away from the Delta and Mississippi County.

In January 1859, Craighead returned to his farm in East Arkansas. Jones used Craighead’s absence to push the bill through the state legislature. As a gesture toward Craighead, Jones amended the resolution to name the county, “Craighead.” When Craighead returned to the Senate, he pushed through a resolution to name the county seat “Jonesboro” in honor of Jones.

In the years following the formation of Craighead County, the population consisted mainly of small farmers and businessmen. Because of the lack of big plantations, the county was less devoted to the ideals of slavery and the Confederacy.

Following the war, the county was the site of rapid Ku Klux Klan (KKK) growth. During the late 19th century, the variety of trees in the rural areas of the county were used to start a thriving lumber and woodworking industry.

During the Great Depression, the largely agricultural Craighead County suffered extreme distress. The legendary Bank of Jonesboro closed during the Depression years. Most farmers had nowhere to sell their crops.

After the war, integration of county schools took place rather peacefully. The integration stood in sharp contrast to the rest of the Delta, which often was the source of most segregationist sentiment.

Today
Today, Craighead County has a fast growing economy. It is one of the best areas of Arkansas to do business and has seen a rapid rise in population over the past few decades.

The city produces bricks, chemicals, electric motors, lumber, wood products, and dairy. The rural areas of the county are home to hundreds of rivers, creeks, and oak, maple, and pine forests. In the fall, these forests are the source of fishing and duck hunting.

Some of the lowland rural areas are also fertile crop land, particularly for rice.

Arkansas State University is also located within Jonesboro. Many businesses in Jonesboro cater to the student population. The university is known for its heritage studies doctorate program as well as an environmental science program.

In the last few decades, Craighead County has attracted big companies, particularly St. Bernards Medical Center. These big companies have helped create bedroom communities, such as Bay, Bono, Brookland, and Lake City.

Today, the county is 81% white and 13% black. 18% of the county is below the poverty line. As of 2009, the median household income is $39,526.

Politics
Craighead County is part of the Delta. As such, it is part of the rural Democratic coalition that dominated state politics for over a century.

Today, county politics are still largely Democratic.

Nationally, the county has drifted toward Republicans. The county is a perfect area for Republicans to begin to make inroads into the Delta. New businesses and new people do not have the “demosaur” roots that other dying Delta counties have. New businesses also means that the Jonesboro community tends to be in favor of lower taxes and fiscal conservatism. (The rest of the Delta tends to be for earmarks, money etc.)

In 2012, Obama won 33% of the county vote. Two years earlier, Blanche Lincoln received 39% of the vote. 2010 Democratic nominee for Lieutenant Governor Shane Broadway (who lost statewide) received 52% of the vote here. And Mike Beebe received 68% of the vote.

Craighead County is represented by Republican Rick Crawford in Congress. In the State Senate, Craighead County is divided between Senate District 21 and 22. Republicans left both districts unchallenged to incumbent Democrats in 2012.

In the State House, Craighead County is split between District 52, District 53, District 58, and District 59.

District 52 only has a few agricultural precincts in the southern part of the county. That district is represented by Republican John Hutchinson, the only Republican to hold a seat east of White County.

District 53 is represented by Democrat Homer Lenderman. Lenderman was left unchallenged in 2012 and is considered fairly popular.

District 58 is represented by Democrat Harold Copenhaver. This seat was a Democratic pickup in the 2012 elections. Former Republican State Representative Jon Hubbard made a huge gaffe a few weeks before the election when he declared that blacks were better under slavery than they are now. Copenhaver will face a tough 2014 election.

District 59 is represented by Democrat Butch Wilkins. This seat was hotly contested in the 2012 elections. Republican John Cooper, the nominee for the current special election, was the nominee in this State House race. Despite massive spending by outside conservative groups, Wilkins defeated Cooper 54-46. Many people attributed Wilkins’s win to the fact that Cooper was considered one of the most conservative Republicans running for state legislature last year.

Locally, all county-wide elected offices are represented by Democrats. These include the County Judge, County Clerk, County Treasurer, County Sheriff, Circuit Clerk, County Collector, County Assessor, and Tax Collector.
 Republicans have two members of the Quorum Court.

The campaign

The campaign has been fairly low profile and has revolved around local issues such as the grocery tax, how to keep Jonesboro as a place to bring business and how to improve the local schools. Cooper has also talked about the fact that he is against gay marriage (a repeal of the gay marriage ban might be on the ballot next year), and that he is pro-gun (the legislature has recently passed bills to loosen up gun restrictions).

The big question in this race is the “private option.” The private option is the Republican alternative to the Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act. The private option says that Medicaid money will be used to buy private insurance for many low-income Arkansans. This idea was the brainchild of House Republican Majority Leader Bruce Westerman, who is now running for the 4th Congressional District. The idea has enraged fiscally conservative Republicans and Tea Party leaders who claim that the gambit will cost the state millions of dollars. John Cooper is against funding for the private option, while Steve Rockwell is for it.

The upcoming budget session is expected to start in February, and it is likely that a vote on the private option will come up again. The Republican leadership will need as many votes as possible for the private option, something that maybe tricky in an election year as Tea Party candidates gear up to challenge incumbents in the primary. If Cooper wins, funding for the private option might as well be dead.

Recently, the campaign has focused on ethics issues, as state leaders have found themselves involved in ethics scandals. Cooper has called on embattled Lieutenant Governor Darr to resign. Rockwell has not. Both have called for stronger and more transparent campaign finance laws as well as reform of the necessary finance forms.

Ramifications
Policy-wise, the private option is probably the biggest ramification for this special election. Most of the current Republican establishment in the state legislature is not as pure conservative on fiscal issues as outside groups would like. A Cooper win could start to turn the tide.

On the politics side of things, this election is huge. Craighead County is a key area of the state for both Mark Pryor and Mike Ross to win (they need to get at minimum 49% of the vote in this county to win the state) If Rockwell can’t put up a decent showing, Democrats are going to have some serious issues going into 2014.

The other big question is whether Republicans will finally be able to win a seat in the legislature in Northeast Arkansas. After tens of thousands of dollars of ads, and support from outside groups, Republicans came up empty here in 2012. They had a 0% success rate at winning seats in Northeastern Arkansas (their only win in the entire Delta was HD-52, a race that had little outside resources dedicated to it.) For Republicans to win in 2014, they will need to do well in Craighead County. They need an elected local official to build up the local party and start convincing Blue Dogs to change their party registration. A competent Craighead Republican Party could knock off 3 Democratic incumbents in the closely divided State House in 2014.

What to look for
The good news for the Republicans is that they beat Democrats in primary turnout back in October. The good news for Democrats is Steve Rockwell is much better financed and has a much better ground game.

Cooper needs a huge lead out of Bono and Greensboro and the precincts north of Jonesboro to win the seat. These precincts are less Democratic downballot.

Rockwell needs to do well in the sparsely populated rural areas (some voting downballot >80% Democratic) west of town.

Rockwell needs to post decent numbers east of town (40-45%).

Within Jonesboro, Rockwell needs to do well in Fowler Center 3 and Parker Park Community Center (the names of precincts.) He needs about 20% margin win out of both these precincts. Rockwell also needs to carry the Earl Bay Community Center Precinct, the Huntington Building, and Allen Park 6. Cooper needs Walnut Street Baptist Church Precinct by a big margin as well as Allen Park 8, YMCA and Fowler Center 9.

Roughly speaking, Rockwell needs to carry Northwest Jonesboro, West Jonesboro, and Southeast Jonesboro. Cooper needs to carry Southwest Jonesboro and Northeast Jonesboro.

This Week in Campaign Spending

GradyDem

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Thursday August 09, 2012 · 8:13 PM PDT

2012/08/09 · 20:13

Republican superpacs continue to dominate Democrats in the spending wars this week.

Ohio
OFA: $1.95 million
Democratic superpacs: $331K
Romney for President: $1.76 million
Republican National Committee: $298K
Republican superpacs: $1.26 million

Advantage: Republicans +$1.04 million (August 7-August 13)
Advantage: Republicans +$2.16 million (July 31-August 6)
Advantage: Democrats +$152K (July 24-July 30)
Advantage: Republicans +$1.52 million (July 17-July 23)

Pennsylvania
OFA: $0
Democratic superpacs: $200K
Romney for President: $0
Republican National Committee: $0
Republican superpacs: $1.10 million

Advantage: Republicans +$906K (August 7-August 13)
Advantage: Republicans +$713K (July 31-August 6)
Advantage: Democrats +$459K (July 24-July 30)
Advantage: Democrats +$415K (July 17-July 23)

Virginia
OFA: $2.26 million
Democratic superpacs: $189K
Romney for President: $1.79 million
Republican National Committee: $281K
Republican superpacs: $931K

Advantage: Republicans +$549K (August 7-August 13)
Advantage: Republicans +$2.96 million (July 31-August 6)
Advantage: Republicans +$707K (July 24-July 30)
Advantage: Republicans +$1.30 million (July 17-July 23)

Wisconsin
OFA: $0
Democratic superpacs: $0
Romney for President: $0
Republican National Committee: $16K
Republican superpacs: $1.41 million

Advantage: Republicans +$1.42 million (August 7-August 13)
Advantage: Republicans +$30K (July 31-August 6)
Advantage: No spending (July 24-July 30)
Advantage: No spending (July 17-July 23)

Colorado
OFA: $843K
Democratic superpacs: $217K
Romney for President: $843K
Republican National Committee: $170K
Republican superpacs: $721K

Advantage: Republicans +$674K (August 7-August 13)
Advantage: Republicans +$1.40 million (July 31-August 6)
Advantage: Democrats +$93K (July 24-July 30)
Advantage: Republicans +$564K (July 17-July 23)

Florida
OFA: $1.68 million
Democratic superpacs: $293K
Romney for President: $1.79 million
Republican National Committee: $0
Republican superpacs: $1.71 million

Advantage: Republicans +$1.70 million (August 7-August 13)
Advantage: Republicans +$3.70 million (July 31-August 6)
Advantage: Republicans +$893K (July 24-July 30)
Advantage: Republicans +$1.14 million (July 17-July 23)

Iowa
OFA: $883K
Democratic superpacs: $0
Romney for President: $777K
Republican National Committee: $147K
Republican superpacs: $645K

Advantage: Republicans +$687K (August 7-August 13)
Advantage: Republicans +$1.72 million (July 31-August 6)
Advantage: Republicans +$251K (July 24-July 30)
Advantage: Republicans +$867K (July 17-July 23)

Michigan
OFA: $0
Democratic superpacs: $0
Romney for President: $0
Republican National Committee: $0
Republican superpacs: $167K

Advantage: Republicans +$167K (August 7-August 13)
Advantage: Republicans +$1.27 million (July 31-August 6)
Advantage: Republicans +$481K (July 24-July 30)
Advantage: Republicans +$468K (July 17-July 23)

Minnesota
OFA: $0
Democratic superpacs: $0
Romney for President: $0
Republican National Committee: $0
Republican superpacs: $0

Advantage: No spending (August 7-August 13)
Advantage: No spending (July 31-August 6)
Advantage: No spending (July 24-July 30)
Advantage: No spending (July 17-July 23)

Nevada
OFA: $817K
Democratic superpacs: $0
Romney for President: $590K
Republican National Committee: $94K
Republican superpacs: $405K

Advantage: Republicans +$405K (August 7-August 13)
Advantage: Republicans +$1.18 million (July 31-August 6)
Advantage: Democrats +$102K (July 24-July 30)
Advantage: Republicans +$420K (July 17-July 23)

New Hampshire
OFA: $523K
Democratic superpacs: $0
Romney for President: $88K
Republican National Committee: $184K
Republican superpacs: $62K

Advantage: Democrats +$188K (August 7-August 13)
Advantage: Republicans +$783K (July 31-August 6)
Advantage: Democrats +$18K (July 24-July 30)
Advantage: Republicans +$777K (July 17-July 23)

New Mexico
OFA: $0
Democratic superpacs: $0
Romney for President: $0
Republican National Committee: $0
Republican superpacs: $0

Advantage: No spending (August 7-August 13)
Advantage: No spending (July 31-August 6)
Advantage: No spending (July 24-July 30)
Advantage: No spending (July 17-July 23)

North Carolina
OFA: $1.21 million
Democratic superpacs: $0
Romney for President: $813K
Republican National Committee: $236K
Republican superpacs: $1.02 million

Advantage: Republicans +$853K (August 7-August 13)
Advantage: Republicans +$1.73 million (July 31-August 6)
Advantage: Republicans +$564K (July 24-July 30)
Advantage: Republicans +1.55 million (July 17-July 23)

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