Daily Kos: MontoyaInigo

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Tuesday January 08, 2019 · 10:53 AM PST

2019/01/08 · 10:53

I had a "unicorn" event last night: I was actually called by the Rasmussen Polling outfit, the major "robo call" pollster.

I couldn't quite back sight along the questions to see who was commissioning the poll for what purpose. There were expected questions about the country being on the right track/wrong track, approval/disapproval of Trump, and standard demographic questions of age, race, etc. But there were 3-4 questions about Mitt Romney and two weird questions about how did I respond to the word "Socialist" and should the Democratic Party re-label itself the "Democratic Socialist Part."

UPDATE: Senate Science & Technology Committee on Obama and Hillary....

MontoyaInigo

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Friday July 22, 2016 · 12:51 PM PDT

2016/07/22 · 12:51

Republicans on the Senate Science & Technology Committee have voted to name the source of the next unexpected major earthquake Obama’s Fault. UPDATED: After the conclusion of the Republican National Convention, Senate Republicans have pre-designated the cause of the next major seismic event after the one centered on Obama’s Fault as Hillary’s Fault. “We believe in Science,” said a spokesman who declined to be names.

Breaking: Republicans on the Senate Science & Technology Committee have voted...

MontoyaInigo

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Wednesday July 20, 2016 · 11:53 PM PDT

2016/07/20 · 23:53

Republicans go boldly where no one has gone before

Republicans on the Senate Science & Technology Committee have voted to name the source of the next unexpected major earthquake Obama’s Fault.

Voting When You're Not "Inspired"

MontoyaInigo

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Saturday June 25, 2016 · 1:43 PM PDT

2016/06/25 · 13:43

It’s well established that the young, the poor, and minorities don’t vote in off-year (non-Presidential) elections as much as they do in Presidential elections. For example, the 18-30 turnout was 18 and 19 percent of the electorate in 2008 and 2012, only 12 and 13 percent in 2010 and 2014. These demographics also have a lower rate of voting going down the ballot.    If these groups voted as relentlessly as those who are not of those groups do, we would live in a much different, much better world. But they don’t and we don’t.
One of the biggest piles of bullshit emanating from the Bernieverse is that they won’t if not inspired and that somehow it’s the duty of others to inspire them.   No, voting is a job and a you go to work even on the days you’re not inspired. Your job is picking someone to do the job of formulating and executing policy, everything from the President down to the local school board.

The June 27 issue of the New Yorker has an article, “Drawing the Line,” by Elizabeth Kolbert, about the devastating brilliance of the Republican gerrymandering of the House after the 2010 election and census and how it came to pass.   In 2012, Democrats cast 1.7 million more votes for House seats than Republicans...and the Republicans came away with 33 more House seats.
The Republican success came as a result of focusing on dozens of state legislative races in 2010 in chambers where the Democrats had narrow control.   All the races where blocs of voters are sitting on their asses because nobody “inspires” them.

Drawing the Line

I commend it to your attention.

California Caucuses to Elect Delegates Tomorrow For Hillary in the CA-33

MontoyaInigo

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Saturday April 30, 2016 · 12:17 PM PDT

2016/04/30 · 12:17

I’m running to be a delegate from the CA-33 in support of Hillary Clinton. Please come to the Caucus to elect delegates tomorrow, Sunday, May 1.

I still wear my Hillary Clinton button from the 2008 campaign, when I worked the grassroots and donated as much as I could afford. I believe she is the best-qualified non-incumbent to run for President since FDR. I look forward to Hillary Clinton not just breaking, but shattering, the glass ceiling for women in politics. Delegates influence and vote on the party platform: my issues are Voter Rights, Global Warming, Affordable Housing, and Public Education.

To vote, attend the Caucus on Sunday, May 1 Registration begins at 2pm. Caucus starts at 3pm. You may, if you wish, vote immediately rather than staying for the speeches.

Caucus location: Congregation Tikvat Jacob 1829 N. Sepulveda Blvd. Manhattan Beach, CA 90266

In college and after graduation, worked for Democrats in both the House and Senate
Participated at the grassroots level for Democratic campaigns over a span of decades
Have been a regular donor to Democratic presidential campaigns, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, and individual candidates such as Tammy Baldwin (Senator, Wisconsin),Tom Udall (Senator, New Mexico), Tom Allen (Senate candidate, Maine)
I am part of a group from Westside4Hillary who are running.
You must be a registered Democrat in the 33rd Congressional District (represented by Ted Lieu) to participate. If you are not currently registered, you may register at the caucus. Communities belonging to the California 33rd Congressional District: Agoura (south of the 101) • Calabasas (south of the 101) • Malibu • Topanga • Pacific Palisades • Santa Monica • Brentwood • Westwood (north of Wilshire) • Beverly Hills • Beverly Center/Miracle Mile (Beverly Hills east to Plymouth, Wilshire north to Rosewood) • Venice • Marina del Rey • Playa del Rey • El Segundo • Torrance * Redondo Beach • Manhattan Beach • Hermosa Beach • All of Palos Verdes (PVE, RPV, RHE, RH) Please message me if you will be attending. Thank you.

Running to be a Hillary delegate: Malibu-Santa Monica-Brentwood-Beverly Hills-Beach Cities-PV

MontoyaInigo

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Monday April 25, 2016 · 10:51 AM PDT

2016/04/25 · 10:51

U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton waves after leading a discussion on gun violence prevention at the Wilson-Gray YMCA in Hartford, Connecticut, U.S., April 21, 2016.

I’m running to be a delegate from the CA-33 in support of Hillary Clinton. Please come to the Caucus to elect delegates on Sunday, May 1.

To vote, attend the Caucus on Sunday, May 1 Registration begins at 2pm. Caucus should conclude at 4:30pm but may run long (please allow extra time)

Caucus location: Congregation Tikvat Jacob 1829 N. Sepulveda Blvd. Manhattan Beach, CA 90266

In college and after graduation, worked for Democrats in both the House and Senate
Participated at the grassroots level for Democratic campaigns over a span of decades
Have been a regular donor to Democratic presidential campaigns, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, and individual candidates such as Tammy Baldwin (Senator, Wisconsin),Tom Udall (Senator, New Mexico), Tom Allen (Senate candidate, Maine)
You must be a registered Democrat in the 33rd Congressional District (represented by Ted Lieu) to participate. If you are not currently registered, you may register at the caucus. Communities belonging to the California 33rd Congressional District: Agoura (south of the 101) • Calabasas (south of the 101) • Malibu • Topanga • Pacific Palisades • Santa Monica • Brentwood • Westwood (north of Wilshire) • Beverly Hills • Beverly Center/Miracle Mile (Beverly Hills east to Plymouth, Wilshire north to Rosewood) • Venice • Marina del Rey • Playa del Rey • El Segundo • Redondo Beach • Manhattan Beach • Hermosa Beach • All of Palos Verdes (PVE, RPV, RHE, RH) Please message me if you will be attending. Thank you.

Understanding the Primary Process and Making Predictions

MontoyaInigo

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Friday April 22, 2016 · 10:14 AM PDT

2016/04/22 · 10:14

151013215526-bernie-sanders-democratic-debate-sick-of-hearing-about-hillary-clinton-emails-19-00005521-large-169.jpg — In better days.

I posted this on my FB page the other day and it occurs to me that it could do well here too. I’ve read far too many comments that belie the ability to understand where the Democratic process is going when, in fact, there have been only minor surprises from Iowa on. So an exercise for those interested in electoral analysis.

1. Ted Cruz and Bernie Sanders have a significant overlay in the states which they have won against the respective front-runners. Why?

2. Name two factors that incline West Virginia and Kentucky toward Bernie, two factors which incline the states toward Hillary. What is the likely outcome in those two states?

3. a. Why Oregon a slam dunk for Bernie? b. Why is North Dakota a slam dunk for Bernie?

4. Why is California a likely loss for Bernie, narrow win at best?

5. CNN exit polls for the NY primary showed Hillary with only a 52-48 win. What is the most likely reason for exit polls being off? (And why all exit polls should be taken with a huge grain of salt until confirmed by actual votes.)

Open book test. No proctoring needed. Should take three minutes.

Running to be a Hillary delegate from the CA-33 (Ted Lieu's district)

MontoyaInigo

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Thursday April 21, 2016 · 3:32 PM PDT

2016/04/21 · 15:32

I’m running to be a delegate from the CA-33 in support of Hillary Clinton. Please come to the Caucus to elect delegates on Sunday, May 1.

To vote, attend the Caucus on Sunday, May 1 Registration begins at 2pm. Caucus should conclude at 4:30pm but may run long (please allow extra time)

Caucus location: Congregation Tikvat Jacob 1829 N. Sepulveda Blvd. Manhattan Beach, CA 90266

In college and after graduation, worked for Democrats in both the House and Senate
Participated at the grassroots level for Democratic campaigns over a span of decades
Have been a regular donor to Democratic presidential campaigns, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, and individual candidates such as Tammy Baldwin (Senator, Wisconsin),Tom Udall (Senator, New Mexico), Tom Allen (Senate candidate, Maine)
You must be a registered Democrat in the 33rd Congressional District (represented by Ted Lieu) to participate. If you are not currently registered, you may register at the caucus. Communities belonging to the California 33rd Congressional District: Agoura (south of the 101) • Calabasas (south of the 101) • Malibu • Topanga • Pacific Palisades • Santa Monica • Brentwood • Westwood (north of Wilshire) • Beverly Hills • Beverly Center/Miracle Mile (Beverly Hills east to Plymouth, Wilshire north to Rosewood) • Venice • Marina del Rey • Playa del Rey • El Segundo • Redondo Beach • Manhattan Beach • Hermosa Beach • All of Palos Verdes (PVE, RPV, RHE, RH) Please message me if you will be attending. Thank you.

One thing each Democratic campaign can't do

MontoyaInigo

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Saturday April 09, 2016 · 9:24 PM PDT

2016/04/09 · 21:24

Democratic presidential candidate, Hillary Clinton and Democratic presidential candidate, Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt, shakes hands as they greet the audience before the audience before a Democratic presidential primary debate hosted by MSNBC at the University of New Hampshire Thursday, Feb. 4, 2016, in Durham, N.H. (AP Photo/David Goldman)

The past week has brought into focus that the two campaigns, Hillary’s and Bernie’s, each have one thing that they just can’t do.

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