Former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D. VA)
Some good news today out of Virginia courtesy of Roanoke College’s latest poll:
In a still-early look at the likely November gubernatorial matchup, Democrat Abigail Spanberger leads Republican Winsome Earle-Sears by 43%-26%, according to the Roanoke College Poll. The Institute for Policy and Opinion Research (IPOR) at Roanoke College interviewed 658 Virginia residents between May 12 and May 19, 2025. The survey has a weighted margin of error of 5.25%.
More than a quarter (28%) of registered voters are undecided, and 3% said they would vote for someone else. These results are within the margin of error of the February poll. Regarding favorable/unfavorable ratings, about one in five doesn’t know enough about either candidate to have an opinion about them.
Job Approval, Favorable/Unfavorable, and Directions of Virginia and Nation
For the first time in eight years of polling, a majority (51%) thinks things in Virginia have gotten off on the wrong track, while two-thirds (66%) say the same about the country. President Donald Trump’s job disapproval rating (65%) is the worst it has been, including during his first term, while his 31% approval rating is low, but not his worst. Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s job approval rating (46%) is his lowest and down seven points from November.
Youngkin’s unfavorable rating (44% favorable/50% unfavorable) is also his worst showing, while Trump’s is close to his most negative (33% favorable/64% unfavorable). Spanberger’s rating (41% favorable/40% unfavorable) is similar to November, while Earle-Sears’ numbers have fallen in that time (32% favorable/48% unfavorable), with about one-fifth of respondents not offering an opinion. Mark Warner, whose U.S. Senate seat is up for election in 2026, comes in at 51% favorable, about where he stood five years ago. While the Democratic Party is not seen in a positive light (51% unfavorable), the Republican Party fares even worse (63% unfavorable). All these questions show significant partisan differences (see topline).
Click here to see the full results.
Yes, there are a lot of of undecideds but it’s easy to see why more voters would go to Spanberger that Winsome-Sears. Even the Virginia GOP isn’t thrilled about her:
Virginia Republicans always knew this would be a challenging election year. In the gubernatorial race, Democrat Abigail Spanberger is a well-positioned candidate with a record of winning competitive races.
But Virginia Republicans are growing increasingly worried about Earle-Sears’ slow start to the campaign. According to nearly a dozen Republican strategists and officials in the state, her sluggish fundraising, a controversial speech in which she compared Diversity, Equity and Inclusion programs to slavery and her frosty relationship with MAGA rising star John Reid, who is running for lieutenant governor, could make a bad year worse.
“A lot of us are looking at it and saying, ‘I’d do it differently,’” said a senior GOP staffer granted anonymity to speak freely. “She’s a good person, she’d make a good governor, and she’s just not as strong of a candidate as we’d like to have.”
Recently, her campaign sent a fundraising email that tied American slavery to DEI. “Slaves did not die in the fields so that we could call ourselves victims now in 2025,” said the email, signed by Earle-Sears, who is looking to become the state’s first woman and second Black governor. The email went on to say that “Democrats think minorities can’t succeed without DEI” and highlights Virginia as “the former capital of the Confederacy.” The campaign said it was not responsible for the email and declined to say who was, but a video shared with POLITICO showed her making similar statements at an event in 2023. The text is still posted on her campaign’s WinRed fundraising page.
Also:
Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, now the Republican nominee for governor, continues to cement her far-right platform with appearances at two schools that openly denounce LGBTQ+ people and reproductive freedom. Her commencement speech at Regent University and an upcoming one at Atlantic Shores Christian School, a private pre-k through 12 institution, are the latest signals that she is not moderating her views for a general election campaign — she’s leaning in.
Regent’s official doctrine affirms that marriage exists only between one man and one woman and opposes abortion in nearly all cases, asserting that life begins at conception. Its facilities may not be used for anything deemed inconsistent with its interpretation of biblical teachings, including affirming same-sex relationships or transgender identities. Regents holds that abortion is “tantamount to murder.”
The school’s Christian Community and Mission Policy, approved by its board of trustees in 2023, defines the school as a Christian ministry where every employee is a commissioned minister and every activity, academic or otherwise, is considered an act of worship. The school’s policies prohibit “homosexual conduct,” which they categorize alongside “pornography, premarital sex, adultery,” and “lewd, indecent, or obscene conduct,” and require all student leaders and employees to adhere to its biblical code of sexual ethics strictly.
That checks out:
Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears took the unusual step last year of including a note of personal objection to a bill she was constitutionally required to sign — a symbolic gesture that underscores her deeply held views on LGBTQ+ rights as she campaigns for governor.
“I remain morally opposed to the content of HB 174 as passed by the General Assembly,” Earle-Sears wrote on the legislation, which prohibits officials from denying marriage licenses based on sex, gender or race. A copy of the signed bill was obtained by Virginia Scope through a public records request filed with the House Clerk’s Office.
The bill, sponsored by Del. Rozia Henson, D-Prince William, passed with support from the Democratic-controlled legislature. Gov. Glenn Youngkin and House Speaker Don Scott also signed the measure, but neither added any comments.
Plus there’s this:
Tyler Englander: “In 2023, you favored limiting abortion at 15 weeks? If a bill like that were to come to your desk as governor, would you limit a woman’s access to an abortion at 15 weeks or less?”
Winsome Earle-Sears: “We’re not limiting access at all. That’s not what we’re saying. As a matter of fact, what we really need to do is go get together and try to figure out, where is the limit? Where? At what point? Because I’m noticing — I just saw something I read where a baby, at seven months, was operated on in the womb, and the womb was sewn back up. And so what are we saying here? We need to figure this out.”
Tyler Englander: “Where is the limit for you personally, or what would you advocate for as governor?”
Winsome Earle-Sears: “Well, I’ve already answered that question. We have to figure it out. What I want to know is, what is my opponent’s limit? Because an anything goes, where you can have an abortion up until the time the child can be born, and afterwards, what happens to the baby after an abortion?”
FYI:
Meanwhile, Spanberger is focused on the key issues like health care:
During the event, she outlined her eight key priorities:
- Lowering costs by cracking down on the middlemen — pharmacy benefits managers (PBMs) — responsible for inflating the cost of prescription drugs.
- Allowing more Virginians to use the pharmacy of their choice.
- Combatting the skyrocketing cost of drugs and improving access to affordable medication.
- Making sure Virginians get the care they need and deserve.
- Improving access to affordable healthcare options in Virginia’s rural and underserved communities.
- Improving hospital price transparency.
- Stopping predatory billing practices harming Virginians.
- Holding scammers accountable for ripping off Virginians.
Spanberger’s office added that she wants to be a “Governor who stands up to the Trump Administration and Republicans in Washington who are threatening hundreds of thousands of Virginians’ access to affordable care.
And also trashing Trump’s agenda:
Democratic gubernatorial nominee Abigail Spanberger says she would “absolutely not” support President Donald Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill,” a sweeping federal package with implications for Virginia’s tax policy, health care, and immigration enforcement. Gov. Glenn Youngkin recently signed on to a letter expressing support for the bill.
The more than 1,100-page bill bundles together key Trump proposals, including permanent tax cuts, stricter immigration enforcement and changes to Medicaid eligibility.
“The bill that’s moving through Congress right now, the CBO score has demonstrated that it will have a major impact on increasing the wealth of the top 10% and decreasing the economic prosperity and wealth of the lowest 10% of Americans,” Spanberger said during a press event Wednesday morning.
The Congressional Budget Office said the bill would add $2.3 trillion to deficits over the next decade.
And has set the tone for her campaign:
Spanberger is also making a choice when it comes to Trump and her campaign—hardly ignoring the president, but focusing on the wreckage rather than on resistance rhetoric. “While standing up to Trump, or the discussion of what Trump is doing, isn’t necessarily the thing that I lead with, it is the foundation on which there’s urgency to all of these types of things,” she says. Spanberger believes her part on the Democratic road to recovery is delivering on everyday needs, from broadband access to housing prices to teacher training, while defending core civil rights, including legal access to abortion. “Even talking about teacher residency programs—there’s a strong measure of success in those programs, and now the federal government has cut dollars.”
That framework makes sense given the job she’s seeking. One risk, though, is that Spanberger’s centrist approach might not meet the polarized moment and motivate enough Democratic voters in November. Spanberger scoffs at my suggestion. “Come to my events. They’re quite crowded and energized,” she says. “If you’re working 80 hours a week to pay the rent and put food on the table and, oh my God, hopefully your kid doesn’t get sick—they don’t want to be excited. They want somebody to fix it. They want to know that somebody cares and is decisively focused on the issues that matter to people. That is actually compelling. Whether it’s exciting, I don’t know. I’ll let people determine their own emotions.”
By the way, have you read about what’s going on with the Virginia GOP nominee for Lt. Governor?
When Gov. Glenn Youngkin of Virginia found out that Republican research had linked the G.O.P.’s nominee for lieutenant governor to a blog featuring photos of naked men, he tried to save his party from an embarrassing situation.
Mr. Youngkin called the candidate, John Reid, a longtime conservative talk radio host in Richmond, and told him he needed to abandon his campaign because the website was certain to be discovered and would tank the party’s entire ticket.
“I need you to drop out,” Mr. Youngkin said, according to two people briefed on the call.
Then a funny thing happened. Mr. Reid did not quit. Instead, he posted a five-minute video to social media noting that he is gay and explaining that he had watched pornography and had one-night stands in the past. The Republican base in Virginia quickly rallied around him.
Primary Election Day in Virginia is June 17th. I’ve been very slow to return to my election diaries but more are coming and Virginia, New Jersey and Pennsylvania’s elections this year are a top focus for me. Let’s get ready to hit back against Trump flip Virginia back to blue. Click below to donate and get involved with Spanberger and her fellow Virginia Democrats campaigns.
Governor
Abigail Spanberger
Lt. Governor
Levar Stoney
Ghazala Hashmi
Aaron Rouse
Babur Lateef
Alex Bastani
Attorney General
Jay Jones
Shannon Taylor
State Party
Virginia Democratic Party
