CA-13 and CA-45 Update: Democrats on Pace for Two Flips!

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Thursday November 21, 2024 · 6:41 PM PST

2024/11/21 · 18:41

Hopefully the next representative of California's 13th district, Adam Gray

I have been following the daily vote count updates from the remaining uncalled House races in California and then projecting the results based on how the late counted ballots are breaking in each county and the number of uncounted ballots.

California’s 13th district, where Democrat Adam Gray is challenging incumbent Republican John Duarte, includes parts of 5 different counties in the Central Valley. Although Duarte is currently ahead, more than 75% of the remaining ballots are from Gray’s 2 strongest counties, Stanislaus and Merced.

Currently: Gray trailing Duarte by 194 votes (101,806-101,612)
San Joaquin County: ~794 ballots remaining in CA-13 with projected vote margin of Duarte +8 votes
Stanislaus County: ~1,155 ballots remaining in CA-13 with projected vote margin of Gray +135 votes
Merced County: ~2,892 ballots remaining in CA-13 with projected vote margin of Gray +261 votes
Fresno County: ~437 ballots remaining in CA-13 with projected vote margin of Duarte +34 votes
Madera County: ~37 ballots remaining in CA-13 with projected vote margin of Duarte +6 votes
SUMMARY: 5,315 ballots remaining in CA-13 with a projected vote margin of Gray +348 votes and a D win by 154 votes. It’s tight but Gray is favored to win!

California’s 45th district in the Los Angeles suburbs is mostly in Orange County, with a little slice in Los Angeles County. Democrat Derek Tran is challenging Republican Michelle Steel. Tran passed Steel 5 days ago and has been gradually expanding his lead as he is winning a majority of late counted ballots in both counties.

Currently: Tran leading Steel by 480 votes (156,576-156,096)
Orange County: ~6,628 ballots remaining in CA-45 with projected vote margin of Tran +867
Los Angeles County: ~342 ballots remaining in CA-45 with projected vote margin of Tran +54 votes
SUMMARY: 6,972 ballots remaining in CA-45 with a projected vote margin of Tran +921 votes and a D win by 1,401 votes. Tran is leading and gaining in both counties in the district, so this one is looking good!

A few shout-outs are in order...

CA Pol Junkie

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Friday August 23, 2024 · 10:17 AM PDT

2024/08/23 · 10:17

I am still standing on my chair clapping for all the people who have done so much in the last month to bring hope and inspiration to the Democratic Party and to the country. So many people have done so much, but I want to shout-out to a bunch of people:

Kamala Harris, who unified the party with lightning speed and quieted the doubters with a great message which is pitch-perfect for where we are as a country
The Harris campaign team, who had to shift gears and put the pedal to the metal while making everything look seamless
The hundreds (thousands?) of people in the background who have worked 120 hour weeks to put on a freaking amazing convention overflowing with celebration, inspiration, and a unifying message for America’s future
The kids at the convention were a special highlight: Hope and Gus, Cole and Ella, Amara and Neela, and Pink’s daugher Willow. They all did great putting themselves out there in front of tens of millions of people. They inspire us and remind us that this campaign is about the future for all of America’s children.
Adam Kinzinger: convention planners were wise to give him such a prominent speaking spot as he led the way for conservatives of principle to support Harris
Kamala Harris again for completely nailing her acceptance speech, which was absolutely excellent in content and delivery

I’m sure there are many more you can list in the comments. I am just thrilled to have an inspiring candidate and a campaign team that really has their sh!t together!

Journalist Uncovers Evidence Sen. Britt Lied about Sexual Trafficking Story

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Friday March 08, 2024 · 10:05 PM PST

2024/03/08 · 22:05

Journalist Jonathan M. Katz has created a TikTok video about his investigation of Sen. Britt’s anecdote about speaking to a sex trafficking victim, implying that she had been repeatedly raped as a 12 year old upon being recently taken to the United States. Katz found that the person in question, Karla Jacinto Romero really was abducted into sexual slavery when she was 12, but it happened in Mexico 15-20 years ago. In 2015, she courageously spoke to Congress about the horror she went through. Senator Britt dishonors her by using her story as part of a lie. This Raw Story article has the links Katz found in his research and his video explains the whole thing.

UPDATE: CNBC is running the story: Biden rebutter Sen. Britt blasted for recycling 20-year-old sex traffic story to attack border policy

UPDATE 2: Washington Post gives Britt 4 Pinocchios: Katie Britt’s false linkage of a sex-trafficking case to Joe Biden

Everything Wrong with Texas in one Horrifying Murder

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Friday May 12, 2023 · 3:05 PM PDT

2023/05/12 · 15:05

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - APRIL 15: People protest against restricting abortion rights with signs in front of the New York Public Library on April 15, 2023 in New York City. Demonstrators contend that Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) prevented a liberal seat on the Supreme Court to come to a vote at the end of President Obamaâ€™s administration, ultimately giving way to a conservative court. (Photo by John Lamparski/Getty Images)

A young woman is dead in Texas thanks to a combination of their abortion ban and lax gun laws. She had just returned from Colorado to get an abortion when she was killed by her boyfriend.

According to an arrest-warrant affidavit, surveillance video shows Thompson and Gonzalez walking together when Thompson attempts to put Gonzalez in a chokehold. Gonzalez “shrugs him off,” the affidavit says, and they continue walking.

Thompson then pulls out a gun and shoots her in the head, according to the affidavit. After she hits the ground, Thompson shoots her several more times and flees, the affidavit says.

Maybe things would be different if she had access to discreetly get an abortion locally. Maybe things would be different if her boyfriend wasn’t carrying a loaded weapon. But this was in Texas, where endangering women is the role of government.

Faith vs Church vs Religion

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Wednesday May 18, 2022 · 2:23 PM PDT

2022/05/18 · 14:23

Apparently religion is a complicated subject, but I don’t think Democrats are very good at talking about it. We can alienate alot of good people who should be our allies. Acceptance of other people’s beliefs can be a challenge, and part of that is the conflation of all levels of spirituality as “religion”. I think the following is a good way to separate the good from the bad and build alliances:

Let’s call Faith someone’s personal relationship with God or in the case of Christianity the desire to follow the example of Jesus. This might give people peace, strength, purpose, or inspiration to do good things for others. OK, I might not share your beliefs but if that works for you then great!

Then there is Church, which for some is a place of cherished community, traditions, music, and inspiration. Again, I don’t have to share your beliefs to support that it’s a positive in your life.

Then there is what I define as Religion. This is where instead of people speaking to God, they speak for God. It is, and always has been, a means of controlling people. It is people saying what you need to do to please God, people saying what you should believe, who you should be, who you should love, and codifying their own beliefs in the law. This is the source of so much strife in our nation and the world. So let’s talk about how destructive religion can be, but let’s talk about it as the corruption of faith and church. Talk about how it manipulates people’s sincere beliefs for a political end. There are many ways to be a good person with or without spiritual belief — now more than ever we all need to band together against those who use religion against us.

We still don't get it

CA Pol Junkie

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Friday January 08, 2021 · 12:47 PM PST

2021/01/08 · 12:47

US Senator Ted Cruz (L), Republican of Texas, speaks with colleague Josh Hawley of Missouri during a joint session of Congress to count the electoral votes for US President at the US Capitol in Washington, DC, January 6, 2021. - Congress is meeting to certify Joe Biden as the winner of the 2020 presidential election, with scores of Republican lawmakers preparing to challenge the tally in a number of states during what is normally a largely ceremonial event. (Photo by Olivier DOULIERY / AFP) (Photo by OLIVIER DOULIERY/AFP via Getty Images) — The leading contenders for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination

There are alot of stories out today about how Senators Josh Hawley and Ted Cruz are radioactive after fomenting the attempted coup this week. People from George Will to our esteemed Kerry Eleveld think this dooms them in their campaigns for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024. Unfortunately, the people who think that are the same people who thought Trump would never win the Republican nomination in 2016 or manage to win the electoral college that year. The Republican Party is the Party of Trump. The mob that stormed the Capitol is the dominant faction of the GOP, not the elite fat cats who want their tax cuts. 45% of Republicans supported what the mob did, and I’d bet that among the subset of primary voters the percentage is higher. 70% of Republicans don’t think November’s election was fair. Being called on to resign by a Democratic senator and the two biggest newspapers in his state will only be a badge of honor for Josh Hawley in the 2024 primaries.

We want to think that if there is one thing that unites us as Americans, it’s a commitment to democracy as a founding principle of our country. We need to come to grips with the fact that if Republican Party has to choose between democracy and power, they will choose power every time. We underestimate the demagogues willing to exploit that at our own risk.

Did anyone actually listen to what Pete said?

CA Pol Junkie

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Wednesday February 26, 2020 · 2:33 PM PST

2020/02/26 · 14:33

From left, Democratic presidential candidates, former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg, former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., former Vice President Joe Biden, Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., and businessman Tom Steyer participate in a Democratic presidential primary debate, Tuesday, Feb. 25, 2020, in Charleston, S.C. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)

Pardon me for giving the third rail of DailyKos a big wet kiss, but I frankly don’t know why Sanders supporters are very concerned about what Pete Buttigieg said. Here it is:

“The only way we get to do this is to actually win the presidency, and I am not looking forward to a scenario where it comes down to Donald Trump with his nostalgia for the social order of the 1950s and Bernie Sanders with nostalgia for the revolutionary politics of the 1960s,”

“This is not about what coups were happening in the 1970s or ’80s, this is about the future. This is about 2020. We are not going to survive or succeed, and we’re certainly not going to win by reliving the Cold War and we’re not going to win these critical House and Senate races if people in those races have to explain why the nominee of the Democratic Party is telling people to look at the bright side of the Castro regime. We’ve got to be a lot smarter than this.”

I don’t know how that is dismissive of the 1960’s activism regarding feminism, racial justice, gay rights, opposition to the Vietnam War etc. Buttigieg made a point about things Sanders said in the past about Cuba and Nicaragua and tie in to his calls for a “revolution” in the present. There are a lot of people who live comfortable lives while strongly disapproving of Trump. They don’t want to be part of a revolution of any kind. If you have to explain to people what kind of revolution we’re going to have, you’ve already lost the argument. People might disagree with that, but it is a valid political argument. Now can we please get on with our lives?

Markos, the time is NOW to end the Buttigieg hate

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Tuesday February 04, 2020 · 2:15 PM PST

2020/02/04 · 14:15

I don’t know who I will support in the California primary — my top 3 candidates are all out of the race already — my priority is just to beat Trump in November. The founder of this website that grew into an activist community has not been shy with his feelings about Pete Buttigieg, including this morning:

5) The biggest asshole of the night was small-liberal-college-town Mayor Pete Buttigieg, who gave a victory speech utterly divorced from the reality on the ground. His pretend “I won and shocked the nation” speech was everything we hate about politics—a Trumpian attempt to create reality by merely declaring it so.

6) It’s hard to see how Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar continue forward from here. Sure, there’s no reason to quit before New Hampshire, but they’ve got no juice left. They bet all on Iowa, and Iowa said, “We suck,” and that was that.

Buttigieg had the data from his well organized campaign and now that 62% of precincts are reporting it looks like he can not only talk the talk but walk the walk. It is a testament to himself and his political skill that he has managed to rise from obscurity to (more likely than not at least) win the most state delegates at the Iowa caucus.

We get it, Markos, that you don’t think Buttigieg should be the Democratic nominee and you want him out of the race. Buttigieg isn’t the first choice for most of us. Now, with a putative narrow win over Sanders in the Iowa caucus, fivethirtyeight’s pre-caucus projections gave Buttigieg a 15% chance of winning the nomination, so he needs to be taken seriously. We don’t know if this is (as many expect) the zenith of his presidential run or if he will be able to extrapolate his campaign from Iowa to the much more diverse Democratic electorate, but how is the time to let him show us how far he can go. In the mean time, we should stop doing Vladimir’s work and show respect for all the candidates. One of them will be our best hope for the future, all would be orders of magnitude better than Trump, and we need to be united to win in November.

CA-21: Democrat T J Cox takes the lead!

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Monday November 26, 2018 · 5:05 PM PST

2018/11/26 · 17:05

Kern County has released the results from what must be most of its outstanding ballots, and Democrat T J Cox won them 1,384-499 or 73.5%-26.5%! This is an outstanding result and puts Cox in the lead:

County	Cox	Valadao
fresno	19,663	20,262
Kern	23,693	15,098
kings	10,716	17,977
tulare	1,600	1,899
total	55,672	55,236

I estimate that there are about 4,744 ballots left yet to count in the district. Most of those are from Fresno County, which has given Cox a majority in the late counted ballots. Let’s see how long it takes the news outlets to reverse their call for Valadao!

UPDATE: Tulare County updated their count with 46 new votes and Valadao won those 24-22. Kings County is Valadao’s best source of votes now, but I project he will net only around 230 votes from there. Based on estimated ballots left in each county and each county’s late ballot percentages for each candidate, I project that T J Cox will win by about 691 votes.

CA-21: Better un-call this one - it will be the closest House race in the country!

CA Pol Junkie

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Friday November 16, 2018 · 7:34 PM PST

2018/11/16 · 19:34

California knows how to ride a blue wave, with 6 Republicans being washed out… so far. There’s another race in the 21st District which was “called” for the Republican David Valadao on election night but which looks to be the closest race in the country. Davey1107 has done excellent reporting on the California races, including this one on CA-21. Today, batches of votes have come in from 3 of the four counties within the district: Fresno, Kings, and Tulare and they were really good for Democratic challenger T J Cox compared to the overall counts for each county:

Fresno: County: 1371 new ballots Cox 59.4% Valadao 40.6% (county totals Cox 48.4% Valadao 51.6%)

Kern County: no new ballots for 5 days (county totals Cox 59.6% Valadao 40.4%)

Kings County: 1957 new ballots Cox 48.3% Valadao 51.7% (county totals Cox 37.3% Valadao 62.7%)

Tulare County: 272 new ballots Cox 43.4% Valadao 56.6% (county totals 45.7% Valadao 54.3%)

The Tulare County portion of the district is quite small (about 3,000 votes) so if you do a weighted average Cox is running 10.6% ahead of his overall percentages for the 3 counties in this latest batch. If you project that forward based on the number of remaining ballots in each county, you get this:

TJ Cox 55,940 votes David Valadao 55,748 votes or a 192 vote win for the Democrat!

Most of the remaining ballots are provisionals and election day registrations, which are probably strongly Democratic. It will take a few weeks for California to count every vote, but keep your eyes on this race!

Cook Political Report Poll Brimming With Good News

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Thursday October 25, 2018 · 10:44 AM PDT

2018/10/25 · 10:44

Feeling anxious? Need some data to get your fight back? This Cook Political Report has got it all. It’s a poll which separates results by congressional district based on Cook Political's ratings. Here’s what the summary says under the heading “2018 feels like 2010, in reverse”:

Today, 49 percent of Americans feel frustrated about Donald Trump’s presidency – the same share who said they felt frustrated about Barack Obama’s presidency during the first round of midterm elections in his administration. Indeed, the shares who today say they feel “excited” (14 percent vs 8 percent in 2010), “proud” (17 percent vs 12 percent in 2010), “hopeful” (27 percent vs 32 percent), and “helpless” (29 percent vs 22 percent) about the presidency are quite close to those from eight years ago. The exception is an uptick in anger, from 25 percent in 2010 to 39 percent today

So it’s like 2010, but in favor of Democrats, and the voters are even more angry than they were then. That sounds like a really good scenario. Here’s some snippets of poll results of registered voters from 69 races which are rated as “tossup”, “lean Republican”, or “lean Democratic” (all but 4 of which are currently held by Republicans):

59% disapprove of Trump (46% strongly)
70% disapprove of Congress (40% strongly)
58% said their representative does not deserve re-election
65% said Trump deserves to be voted out of office in 2020
Generic ballot: Democratic 48%, Republican 36%
Words which apply to Trump presidency: Frustrated 56%, Angry 45%, Helpless 33%, Hopeful 26%, Proud 15%, Excited 13%
Trump is 58% Not at all likeable, 56% Not at all honest, 56% Not at all ethical etc.

These are close races in almost entirely Republican districts! No more navel-gazing! We will take back our country! Vote! Get all your friends to vote! GOTV! Fight! Win! We can do this!

How to Win the Supreme Court Battle: Don't Play McConnell's Game

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Thursday June 28, 2018 · 10:21 AM PDT

2018/06/28 · 10:21

When I read of Democratic Senators telling Mitch McConnell to enforce the “McConnell Rule” of not voting on a Supreme Court nominee in an election year I want to pound my head against the wall. It was transparent B.S. in 2016, McConnell didn’t care, and he will happily reverse himself now. Democrats are jumping on a losing argument and Mitch McConnell is laughing his a** off!

The way to fight this is to argue that there is a conflict of interest for the president to make an appointment to the Supreme Court when there is an active investigation of the president for collusion with Russia. They could determine whether a president can pardon himself, or be compelled to testify under subpoena, or who knows what other issues. The rule of law is at stake, as the president should not be able to appoint a judge who will decide his own fate.

CONTACT YOUR SENATORS TODAY! Tell them to oppose acting on any SCOTUS nomination until the Mueller investigation is completed and Congress has taken appropriate action. This is an argument which is not B.S. like the McConnell Rule and it’s one that red state Democrats can use. We need to act now so Democrats have a better and more coherent message!

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