Hopefully the next representative of California's 13th district, Adam Gray
I have been following the daily vote count updates from the remaining uncalled House races in California and then projecting the results based on how the late counted ballots are breaking in each county and the number of uncounted ballots.
California’s 13th district, where Democrat Adam Gray is challenging incumbent Republican John Duarte, includes parts of 5 different counties in the Central Valley. Although Duarte is currently ahead, more than 75% of the remaining ballots are from Gray’s 2 strongest counties, Stanislaus and Merced.
Currently: Gray trailing Duarte by 194 votes (101,806-101,612)
San Joaquin County: ~794 ballots remaining in CA-13 with projected vote margin of Duarte +8 votes
Stanislaus County: ~1,155 ballots remaining in CA-13 with projected vote margin of Gray +135 votes
Merced County: ~2,892 ballots remaining in CA-13 with projected vote margin of Gray +261 votes
Fresno County: ~437 ballots remaining in CA-13 with projected vote margin of Duarte +34 votes
Madera County: ~37 ballots remaining in CA-13 with projected vote margin of Duarte +6 votes
SUMMARY: 5,315 ballots remaining in CA-13 with a projected vote margin of Gray +348 votes and a D win by 154 votes. It’s tight but Gray is favored to win!
California’s 45th district in the Los Angeles suburbs is mostly in Orange County, with a little slice in Los Angeles County. Democrat Derek Tran is challenging Republican Michelle Steel. Tran passed Steel 5 days ago and has been gradually expanding his lead as he is winning a majority of late counted ballots in both counties.
Currently: Tran leading Steel by 480 votes (156,576-156,096)
Orange County: ~6,628 ballots remaining in CA-45 with projected vote margin of Tran +867
Los Angeles County: ~342 ballots remaining in CA-45 with projected vote margin of Tran +54 votes
SUMMARY: 6,972 ballots remaining in CA-45 with a projected vote margin of Tran +921 votes and a D win by 1,401 votes. Tran is leading and gaining in both counties in the district, so this one is looking good!