Unemployment Rate and Jobs Added Numbers Come from DIFFERENT SURVEYS

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Friday October 05, 2012 · 6:27 AM PDT

2012/10/05 · 06:27

This morning I was shocked SHOCKED that the Morning Joe team came to such a quick conclusion that this morning's labor report numbers "don't add up." Then they pass on the idiotic Jack Welch conspiracy tweet. This despite all of them admitting that they don't know about economics.

This is just a quick diary to give a very basic answer -- one I haven't heard people make clearly.

The 7.8% unemployment rate comes from the Current Population Survey (CPS) - "a monthly survey of households conducted by the Bureau of Census for the Bureau of Labor Statistics."

The +114,000 payroll number comes from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) a survey of "about 141,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 486,000 individual worksites, in order to provide detailed industry data on employment, hours, and earnings of workers on nonfarm payrolls."

DIFFERENT SURVEYS, FOLKS! The 114,000 number and the 7.8% number don't have to add up. Furthermore, there have been several recent upwards adjustments in the employment situation -- reflecting that for some reason, recent employer surveys have been undercounting jobs.

Please spread this far and wide to counter the Jack Welch idiots of the world.

You're letting an awesome diary slip away... [UPDATED: now rec-listed]

DaveV

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Thursday September 18, 2008 · 3:00 PM PDT

2008/09/18 · 15:00

UPDATE: Thanks folks, Jdories' diary made the rec list!

An extremely well-researched diary entitled McShame's Voting Record has Increased Abortions by Jdories is slipping down the main page.

Abortion will be important in this race -- with an epic struggle for Catholics, particularly in Ohio and Michigan (see the Big Ten poll released today for crosstabs by religion) possibly being key to the margin of victory.

This diary lists all of McCain's votes that have invariably increased the rates of abortions -- from votes against expanding health services for women to votes against funding of special needs kids.

Please hop over and read (and recommend today).

DILBERT! Economists favor Obama 2 to 1 over McCain

DaveV

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Wednesday September 17, 2008 · 1:22 PM PDT

2008/09/17 · 13:22

During these perilous economic times, a new voice has emerged with some surprising information. Yes, Dilbert. Really, Scott Adams, the creator of the Dilbert cartoon, who commissioned the OSR Group to conduct a serious survey of over 500 members of the American Economics Association.

Economists are supposed to be conservative - right? They're all supposed to believe that everything should be left to the "invisible hand" of the market - right? Economists should be falling all over themselves for John McCain -- RIGHT?

Nope. Economists favor Barack Obama on the economy by a nearly 2 to one margin:

Overall, 59 percent of our economists say Obama would be best for the economy long term, with 31 percent picking McCain, and 8 percent saying there would be no difference.

On the Issues:

Economists think Obama blows McCain away on Education, Health Care, Energy and the Environment. And almost everything else, except international trade (hey, we're economists, give us a break) and "reducing waste in government" (OK, we're idiots).

Poll

210 votes Show Results

Best comic strip of all time...

210 votes Vote Now!

Best comic strip of all time...

Peanuts

20 votes

FoxTrot

0 votes

Calvin and Hobbes

72 votes

Bloom County

21 votes

For Better or For Worse

2 votes

Dilbert

7 votes

Doonesbury

21 votes

Cathy

0 votes

Sally Forth

0 votes

The Far Side

50 votes

Pogo

7 votes

Other (leave a comment)

10 votes

Message discipline.

DaveV

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Monday September 15, 2008 · 5:52 PM PDT

2008/09/15 · 17:52

Why did the chicken cross the road?
The Republican Recession and the Obama Tax Cut.

How many Nancy Pfotenhauers does it take to screw in a lightbulb?
The Republican Recession and the Obama Tax Cut.

Why don't sheep shrink in a rainstorm?
The Republican Recession and the Obama Tax Cut.

Two guys walk into a bar. The tall guy says to the short guy: "
The Republican Recession and the Obama Tax Cut."

Knock knock. Who's there?
The Republican Recession and the Obama Tax Cut.

Wenn ist das Nunstück git und Slotermeyer? Ja! ...
The Republican Recession and the Obama Tax Cut.

"My dog has no nose." "How does he smell?
The Republican Recession and the Obama Tax Cut.

Poll

23 votes Show Results

Why did the chicken cross the road?

23 votes Vote Now!

Why did the chicken cross the road?

To cover its margin on AIG.

5 votes

It was being chased by a hockey mom.

6 votes

It could see Russia across the road.

5 votes

Armando.

0 votes

To say "thanks but no thanks" to that Bridge to Nowhere.

5 votes

Sweet potatoe pie. (oblique Quayle reference)

2 votes

Gallup: Shows "Palin Bounce" largely contained to South (Updated)

DaveV

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Wednesday September 10, 2008 · 7:55 AM PDT

2008/09/10 · 07:55

Update: here's a DIGG link

Gallup has released weekly breakdowns of Candidate Support by Region for the Sept 1-7, which includes the RNC convention. My own analysis comparing these numbers to the previous two weeks (Aug 25-31: Post-DNC convention and Aug 18-24: Pre-DNC convention), it's easy to see:

The Palin bounce in national polls is being driven by a response in the South.

Even better news - over both conventions (Update [2008-9-10 11:3:2 by DaveV]:: title fixed):

Obama actually gained in the crucial Midwest and West.

DaveV

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Monday September 08, 2008 · 8:14 AM PDT

2008/09/08 · 08:14

So, our collective undies are in a twist over Rasmussen and Gallup tracking polls and USA Today/Gallup poll showing a Palin bounce in national preferences. Say it with me: this isn't a national election. It's is a state-by-state slugfest.

Remember how Barack shocked the Clinton campaign by a brilliant strategy of winning delegates on a district-by-district basis? His team knew exactly how delegates are apportioned; her team did not. Hillary was playing football for yards, while Barack played for points.

His campaign knows exactly where it needs to target persuasion efforts in areas where actual electoral college votes (you know - the way we actually decide who's going to be President?!) are in play. You know how I know that? I actually joined an Obama Team in Wisconsin and saw the strategy for my state.

DaveV

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Tuesday September 02, 2008 · 10:13 AM PDT

2008/09/02 · 10:13

Well, the religious fundamentalists might adore her, but how is the "no new taxes" crowd going to take this news?

After being elected Wasilla mayor, one of Palin's first acts was to increase Wasilla's sales tax by 2% to pay for an arena and convention center for the town of 7,000 people:

At 32, she was elected mayor of Wasilla, a burgeoning bedroom community outside Anchorage. Though Alaskans tend to be ferociously anti-tax, she persuaded Wasilla voters to increase the local sales tax to pay for an indoor arena and convention center. The tax referendum won by 20 votes.

Raising taxes is bad enough, but Alaska is one of only 15 states that tax ther residents on groceries. That's right, Middle America. Sarah Palin raised taxes on groceries.

Poll

176 votes Show Results

Sarah Palin

176 votes Vote Now!

Sarah Palin

Great pick.

12 votes

Greatest pick.

49 votes

Pie (that will cost you 2% more under Sarah Palin)

115 votes

Five observations for today (8/5/08)

DaveV

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Tuesday August 05, 2008 · 11:19 AM PDT

2008/08/05 · 11:19

If you actually have to call yourself The Original Maverick, then you're not really all that Mavericky. Are ya?

If McCain says today we're worse off than we were four years ago, but in January that we were better off than we were eight years ago, what the heck does that mean? I guess the first four years must have been awesome (9/11 and recession anyone?). Ot, the last six months must have been really crappy. Does that mean the surge didn't work?

DaveV

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Friday May 16, 2008 · 6:27 AM PDT

2008/05/16 · 06:27

We hear a lot lately about how Hillary's 17 million primary voters will be irate if she, in descending order: a) doesn't win the nomination; b) doesn't fight it out to the convention floor; c) doesn't continue her campaign through June 3; d) doesn't get the VP slot.

A lot of those voters were early in the contest, before Hillary's campaign went off the deep end (kitchen sink, sniper fire, "commander in chief test," hard-working white voters, obliterate Iran, 3am, etc.). To be fair, some might argue the same applies to Obama in light of the Wright controversy and bitter-gate.

Recognizing that DKos is not representative, I'm putting the question to you all in a poll. Knowing what you know now, would you have voted differently?

Poll

544 votes Show Results

Do you regret your primary/caucus vote?

544 votes Vote Now!

Do you regret your primary/caucus vote?

Voted Obama, glad I voted Obama

433 votes

Voted Obama, wish I would have voted Clinton

4 votes

Voted Obama, wish I would have voted Edwards

9 votes

Voted Clinton, glad I voted Clinton

16 votes

Voted Clinton, wish I would have voted Obama

11 votes

Voted Clinton, wish I would have voted Edwards

0 votes

Voted Edwards, glad I voted Edwards

25 votes

Voted Edwards, wish I would have voted Obama

7 votes

Voted Edwards, wish I would have voted Clinton

0 votes

Voted Other, glad I voted Other

6 votes

Voted Other, wish I would have voted Obama

3 votes

Voted Other, wish I would have voted Clinton

0 votes

Voted Other, wish I would have voted Edwards

0 votes

Did not vote / have not voted yet.

15 votes

Pie

15 votes

Words are cheap.

DaveV

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Saturday February 16, 2008 · 9:17 AM PST

2008/02/16 · 09:17

Words move people to do great things.
People are not cheap.

How will Hillary's "experience" stack up to McCain's?

DaveV

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Sunday February 03, 2008 · 11:00 PM PST

2008/02/03 · 23:00

Team Clinton has been astoundingly successful in convincing us of one thing: Hillary is the "experience candidate." She has managed to learn so much through her past policy mistakes that we can count on her to get it right this time...

Case in point -- Hillary's abject failure to understand the political and economic landscape in 1993-4 led to the defeat of her health care reform package. Yet, in 2008, she's now considered the expert on health care policy. You've got to hand it to Mark Penn and company: that's a hell of a good job of taking one big-assed lemon and turning it into lemonade.

Packaging Hillary as the "experience candidate" could actually work in the primary. Barack Obama is, after all, a one-term U.S. Senator with four fewer years in National elected office and two fewer terms as First Lady. If Hillary's experience gamble successfully pays off, she could win the Democratic nomination.

But would it be a pyrrhic victory -- and why do I call her strategy a gamble? I believe that by emphasizing the importance of experience, Hillary is setting herself (and all of us) up for defeat in the general election against what the electorate would perceive to be a vastly more experienced John McCain.

Poll

39 votes Show Results

Are you experienced?

39 votes Vote Now!

Are you experienced?

Jimi had nothing on me.

8 votes

Very

5 votes

Sort of

5 votes

Not really

6 votes

So virginal that I restore the virginity of others around me...

15 votes

Did Obama say: "Will put God in the Constitution"?

DaveV

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Tuesday January 15, 2008 · 4:44 PM PST

2008/01/15 · 16:44

Oh my God! Did you see today's news? Barack Obama said:

I believe it's a lot easier to change the Constitution than it would be to change the word of the living God, and that's what we need to do is to amend the Constitution so it's in God's standards rather than try to change God's standards

Wait. WHAT? That wasn't Obama? It was Mike Huckabee? You mean he's the enemy, not Obama?

Yeah sure. But did you see the news where John Edwards admitted that he plans to keep the troops in Iraq for a hundred years? I mean, HOLY CRAP! Here's what he said... verbatim!

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Unemployment Rate and Jobs Added Numbers Come from DIFFERENT SURVEYS

You're letting an awesome diary slip away... [UPDATED: now rec-listed]

DILBERT! Economists favor Obama 2 to 1 over McCain

Message discipline.

Gallup: Shows "Palin Bounce" largely contained to South (Updated)

Calm down about national polls! This is a targeted campaign.

Sarah Palin raised taxes. On groceries.

Five observations for today (8/5/08)

Poll: Do you regret your primary vote?

Words are cheap.

How will Hillary's "experience" stack up to McCain's?

Did Obama say: "Will put God in the Constitution"?