Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 12/8

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Daily Kos Staff

Friday December 08, 2023 · 6:00 AM PST

2023/12/08 · 06:00

Welcome to the Daily Kos Elections Live Digest, your liveblog of all of today's campaign news. You can find our collection of public data at dailykosdata.com.

Please note: The Live Digest is a Democratic presidential primary-free space. It’s also a place to discuss elections, not policy.

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Morning Digest: Georgia Republicans are playing a dangerous game with their new maps

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Daily Kos Staff

Friday December 08, 2023 · 5:00 AM PST

2023/12/08 · 05:00

_{The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.}

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● GA Redistricting: Georgia Republicans have passed new congressional and legislative maps pursuant to a court order, but like their conservative brethren in so many Southern states past and present, they're doing their utmost to resist full compliance with the Voting Rights Act.

The pièce de résistance of the new GOP gerrymanders is some sleight-of-hand in the Atlanta area. A court instructed lawmakers to create a new Black-majority congressional district in the suburbs, which Republicans did … while simultaneously dismantling a diverse neighboring district with a large Black population.

As a result, Republicans would retain their wide 9-5 advantage in the state's congressional delegation—but only if the map passes legal muster. And there's good reason to think it won't.

Jeff Singer for Daily Kos Elections

Daily Kos Staff

Thursday December 07, 2023 · 2:15 PM PST

2023/12/07 · 14:15

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - JUNE 16: U.S. Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-NY) debates in the race for governor at the studios of WNBC4-TV June 16, 2022 in New York City. Early voting starts June 18 ahead of the June 28 primary. (Photo by Craig Ruttle-Pool/Getty Images) — Democrat Tom Suozzi, the once and potentially future congressman from Long Island

Democratic leaders unsurprisingly announced on Thursday that they'd chosen former Rep. Tom Suozzi to be the party's nominee in the closely watched Feb. 13 special election to replace Suozzi's successor, expelled GOP Rep. George Santos. Suozzi has spent more than two decades as one of the most prominent Democrats on Long Island, so his party is hoping that his name recognition and moderate reputation will be an asset.

Local Republicans, meanwhile, seem to be delaying their choice. The New York Daily News' Dave Goldiner reported on Thursday that the GOP would not announce a selection until "early next week,” but a party spokesperson previously said the party would decide by the end of this week. (Primary voters in New York do not select nominees in special elections.)

One Republican hopeful is using that extra time to roll out a poll he hopes will help his prospects. Opinion Diagnostics conducted a survey for Air Force veteran Kellen Curry the day before Santos was expelled that shows Suozzi leading him 43-39. While that might not sound like the most enticing result, Curry's survey finds that rival Republicans who've attracted more attention would nonetheless fare similarly.

Stephen Wolf for Daily Kos Elections

Daily Kos Staff

Thursday December 07, 2023 · 10:58 AM PST

2023/12/07 · 10:58

Georgia's Republican-run legislature has passed new maps for Congress, the state Senate, and the state House after a federal court struck down the GOP's existing districts in October for violating the Voting Rights Act by discriminating against Black voters.

Republican Gov. Brian Kemp is likely to sign these maps into law by Friday's court-imposed deadline. (A larger version of the congressional map, which is shown at the top of this post, can be found here.)

However, there's a strong chance that the court overseeing the challenge to Georgia's districts will conclude that Republican lawmakers failed to comply with its order. That, in turn, could tee up a Supreme Court case with the potential to weaken the VRA and undermine minority representation nationwide.

U.S. District Judge Steve Jones had ordered the state to create eight new majority-Black districts to remedy its violations of the VRA: one for Congress, two for the state Senate, and five for the state House. But while Republicans adopted several new majority-Black districts—which would likely elect Black Democrats—they made several other Democratic districts strongly Republican to mitigate their expected losses. The GOP also declined to redraw some of the legislative districts covered by the court's order.

As a result, even though Joe Biden won Georgia in 2020, Donald Trump would have carried a 9-5 majority of congressional seats, a 33-23 majority of state Senate seats, and a 95-85 majority of state House seats under the new maps. Democrats could win majorities in only the most implausible of landslides.

Daniel Donner for Daily Kos Elections

Daily Kos Staff

Thursday December 07, 2023 · 9:11 AM PST

2023/12/07 · 09:11

Americans have a very different understanding from economists of what inflation is and how the economy works.

The latest Daily Kos/Civiqs survey finds that pluralities of Americans—across party lines—think the problem of inflation won't be solved until prices drop back down to where they were a few years ago; that in a good economy, prices will naturally drift downward; and that when inflation goes down, prices either go down or stay the same.

The vast majority also say that something went seriously wrong in the economy over the last few years. A large portion of the public even says that the recent bout of inflation was worse than what we experienced in the 1970s and '80s.

Daily Kos Elections for Daily Kos Liveblogs

Daily Kos Staff

Thursday December 07, 2023 · 6:00 AM PST

2023/12/07 · 06:00

Marconi wireless school, New York. Operators copying messages transmitted from ships at sea, 1912

Welcome to the Daily Kos Elections Live Digest, your liveblog of all of today's campaign news. You can find our collection of public data at dailykosdata.com.

Please note: The Live Digest is a Democratic presidential primary-free space. It’s also a place to discuss elections, not policy.

Subscribe to our podcast, The Downballot! New episodes every Thursday morning.

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Daily Kos Elections for Daily Kos Elections

Daily Kos Staff

Thursday December 07, 2023 · 5:00 AM PST

2023/12/07 · 05:00

_{The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.}

Subscribe to The Downballot, our weekly podcast

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● NY-16: A hotly anticipated battle in the New York City suburbs is now underway with Westchester County Executive George Latimer's announcement that he'll challenge two-term Rep. Jamaal Bowman in next year's Democratic primary.

Israel at the forefront: Bowman has been a harsh critic of Israel, accusing it of "genocide" in Gaza. Latimer fired back in his launch video by attacking Bowman for "voting against resolutions to condemn Hamas."
But it's not the only issue: Latimer also criticized Bowman for voting against Joe Biden's infrastructure bill, a vote Bowman says he took because the bill wasn't paired with the administration's "Build Back Better" proposal.
Good for the goose? Bowman himself got to Congress by ousting an incumbent in a primary. This time, though, the insurgent is no outsider: Latimer has served in public office since 1987.

Jeff Singer for Daily Kos Elections

Daily Kos Staff

Wednesday December 06, 2023 · 3:12 PM PST

2023/12/06 · 15:12

Westchester County Executive George Latimer announced on Wednesday that he would challenge Rep. Jamaal Bowman in the June 25 Democratic primary, a long-awaited announcement that sets up what will be one of the most closely watched nomination contests in the country.

New York's 16th District, which includes southern Westchester County and a small slice of the Bronx, favored Joe Biden 71-28, so the eventual Democratic nominee will have no trouble in the general election. However, the district's boundaries could shift depending on how the state's top court rules in a pending case challenging the current court-drawn map.

Latimer first expressed interest in challenging the two-term congressman in July. The following month, Jewish Insider reported that the hawkish pro-Israel group AIPAC was recruiting him to oppose Bowman. The incumbent has been a prominent critic of Israel's government, making news over the summer when he refused to attend Israeli President Isaac Herzog's speech to Congress.

Jeff Singer for Daily Kos Elections

Daily Kos Staff

Wednesday December 06, 2023 · 1:04 PM PST

2023/12/06 · 13:04

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, second from left, and Assembly Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Bakersfield, right, discuss the new legislative session during a meeting held at the Capitol in Sacramento, Calif., Wednesday, Jan. 11, 2006. Schwarzenegger, along with his chief of staff Susan Kennedy, second from left, met with Republican leadership including Assemblywoman Sharon Runner, R-Lancaster, left, to talk about the Governor's just released state budget and other issues.(AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli) — Rep. Kevin McCarthy in a 2006 photo with California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who once referred to McCarthy as "Bakersfield Boy."

Republican Rep. Kevin McCarthy announced Wednesday that he would resign from the House "at the end of this year," a decision that will bring to a close his often frustrating 17 years in Congress.

There's no question that the GOP will hold onto California's 20th Congressional District, a constituency in the Bakersfield and Fresno areas that supported Donald Trump 61-36 in 2020. However, a new vacancy could still make life tougher for new Speaker Mike Johnson by narrowing his majority. And McCarthy's seat could remain unfilled for some time: Axios reported last week that Republicans already fear that Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom could delay, or even decide not to call, a special election to succeed the former speaker.

"Pretty soon we won't be able to have two Republicans in the same car," an unnamed House Republican snarked to Axios after McCarthy, who insisted two months ago that he wouldn't resign, said he would indeed quit.

David Nir for Daily Kos Elections

Daily Kos Staff

Wednesday December 06, 2023 · 11:20 AM PST

2023/12/06 · 11:20

UNITED STATES - DECEMBER: 5 Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., leaves a meeting of the House Republican Conference in the U.S. Capitol on Tuesday, December 5, 2023. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call via AP Images) — Kevin McCarthy

The House GOP's ever-shrinking majority just shrank a little further—and could get smaller still. That means Republicans could soon have even less room to maneuver, with huge battles over spending bills just up ahead.

Rep. Kevin McCarthy's Wednesday announcement that he's quitting the House came as no surprise. While the ex-speaker's eagerness to be humiliated seemed bottomless, his comments over the last few weeks made it evident that even he had a limit.

And when he goes—"at the end of this year," he says—the Republican caucus will find itself with one fewer member. With more resignations and a critical special election in the pipeline, McCarthy's woefully underprepared replacement as speaker, Mike Johnson, might find himself even more hamstrung than his predecessor.

Associated Press

Wednesday December 06, 2023 · 8:46 AM PST

2023/12/06 · 08:46

FILE - Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., speaks to reporters hours after he was ousted as Speaker of the House, Tuesday, Oct. 3, 2023, at the Capitol in Washington. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite, File)

Two months after his historic ouster as House speaker, Republican Rep. Kevin McCarthy announced Wednesday that he is resigning from his congressional seat in California.

His announcement capped a stunning end for the one-time deli owner from Bakersfield, who ascended through state and national politics to become second in line to the presidency before a contingent of hard-right conservatives engineered his removal in October.

McCarthy is the only speaker in history to be voted out of the job.

Daily Kos Elections for Daily Kos Liveblogs

Daily Kos Staff

Wednesday December 06, 2023 · 8:08 AM PST

2023/12/06 · 08:08

The pneumatic tubes used to speed airmail between airports and post offices. January 30, 1930.

Welcome to the Daily Kos Elections Live Digest, your liveblog of all of today's campaign news. You can find our collection of public data at dailykosdata.com.

Please note: The Live Digest is a Democratic presidential primary-free space. It’s also a place to discuss elections, not policy.

Subscribe to our podcast, The Downballot! New episodes every Thursday morning.

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Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 12/8

Morning Digest: Georgia Republicans are playing a dangerous game with their new maps

Democrats tap George Santos' predecessor in race to fill Santos' seat

Georgia GOP shreds diverse districts, defying court order to remedy discrimination

New Civiqs poll: Americans say inflation won't be solved until prices drop

Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 12/7

Morning Digest: One of the biggest Democratic primaries in the country just got underway

Prominent New York Democrat launches primary against Rep. Jamaal Bowman

From Kevin O's Deli to ex-House speaker: The rise and fall of Kevin McCarthy

Why Kevin McCarthy's departure could bring the House GOP one step closer to chaos

Kevin McCarthy announces he's resigning, just two months after his ouster as speaker

Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 12/6