From the Twitter feed of Jon Cooper:
I know polls don’t matter, and predictive gambling markets don’t either, but this is still encouraging news. And check out Polymarket’s odds on who will win the popular vote:
polymarket.com
There something about a 56-point lead that at least seems note-worthy. Of course, we know full well from 2016 that the popular vote isn’t enough. Let’s work to beat the weirdo ticket in a landslide.
We will likely gain even more of a lead after our convention next week.
Joy is a powerful weapon. Let’s keep using it, and win.
Update 3:03pm EDT: the original title of this post was:
Polymarket, World’s Largest Prediction Market, Has Kamala Beating Trump by Eight Points
But commenters pointed out that the title suggested Polymarket predicts Kamala will win with 8 percent more votes, rather than simply having an 8% greater chance of winning.
Update 3:10pm EDT: From troffelmasse in the comments:
Maybe somebody can comment, but I don’t think the state-level stuff on Polymarket has any meaningful implications. The overall trends on the national race, however, show us how bettors on Polymarket are hearing about stuff. More “vibes” stuff. Which is not unimportant … (it’s not data, but it is trends).
This is where the forecast trends are particularly brutal for Trump … Harris crossed him a week ago and she’s got a meteoric rise:
Polymarket 2024 Presidential Election forecast August 14, 2024
Trump has a LOT of room to sink, while Harris has a bit more to rise. And everything that is happening right now and through September says the same trends will continue. Harris will continue to rise as Americans get past Labor Day and start paying attention, and Trump will continue to fall as he gets dragged into various courts for stuff including sentencing.
Update 4:15pm EDT: Monmouth Poll
MSNBC just reported today’s Monmouth Poll, an A+ rated poll, has Harris up five points over Trump.
This checks out when one goes to the Monmouth Polls website:
Just under half of registered voters say they will either definitely (38%) or probably (10%) vote for Harris in November and, in a separate question, just over 4 in 10 will definitely (33%) or probably (10%) support Trump.
