Scene from the movie Casablanca (Warner Brothers, 1942)
In the lead up to the Second World War, the German General Staff developed new concepts of disruptive, aggressive, mobile warfare designed to make full use of new technologies to deliver deep, fatal thrusts into the rear of enemy military forces. The doctrine arose out of necessity. The Germans knew that all other things being equal, they would likely, as in the First World War, again have to fight numerically superior enemies on multiple fronts. This doctrine of “deep war” eventually came to be known as “Blitzkrieg” (“Lightning War” in the German language).
A key and essential element of the Blitzkrieg doctrine was to use speed to disrupt. This would accomplish four purposes: a) cause the collapse of enemy military command and control; b) reduce enemy soldier morale and effectiveness; c) strike at enemy civilian morale; d) and elevate the morale and effectiveness of the German military and civilian sector.
By the middle of 1942, it seemed Blitzkrieg reigned supreme, its principles vindicated by the rapid and seemingly easy conquest of most of Europe. Axis forces were deep in a reeling Soviet Union. At the gates of Cairo. Japan was rampaging across Asia and the Pacific. The Allied populations wondered and despaired.
The movie Casablanca came out right about this time. And it has lessons for us.
An iconic scene plays out midway through the movie, part of which is pictured above. German soldiers sing their war songs in a cafe in occupied French North Africa. The population seems cowed. Then suddenly, a resistance leader from one of the occupied European nations rises. “Play La Marseillaise!” he demands to the nearby band. It is a French revolutionary song. Forbidden by the authorities. The band looks to the cafe owner, an American expatriate, who hesitates, then nods. As the familiar song rises, so do the patrons, singing enthusiastically. The Nazi soldiers try to sing louder, to drown them out, but ultimately fail and sink back into silence.
The Nazis seek to recover as soon as the music ends. The cafe is closed by police order! But everyone knows a symbolic moment has changed everything. Shown everyone that the supposed control of the authoritarians was a myth. It rested on perceptions of inevitability and intimidation. When the conquered refused to accept they were beaten, it was the beginning of the end for the Nazis.
As the conquered refused to acquiesce, the shadows lifted to reveal the real gaps and weaknesses in Blitzkrieg. Propaganda covering up failure. Boasts overstating Nazi strength and understating the enemy’s strength. The reliance on a single leader who was not only far from infallible, but prone to disastrous miscalculation. Enforced conformity and obedience to the supreme leader which crushed attempts to adapt to changed reality. The use of incompetent lickspittles to carry out the leader’s demands.
Moving to our present…
Trump, Musk and MAGA have based much of their “machinery of conquest” on the same principles used in Blitzkrieg. The term itself is not used as much, having been replaced by “shock and awe.” But the idea remains: bury your enemy with a constant stream of activity that prevents them from resisting. Technology is exploited to its fullest to pump out disinformation designed to demoralize and disarm.
Our own “Casablanca” moment seems to be welling up as we read this. The “50501” movement, driven by real-world concerns over housing, food prices, medical care and rule of law. As of now, it appears broad-based. Its appearance, like the scene in Casablanca, may begin to disperse the shadows.
As the shadows disperse, what do we see? To wit:
Halt in US Foreign Assistance: once the initial shock passed, powerful forces are beginning to gather to oppose the havoc created by Trump and DOGE. This includes veterans’ groups (1/3 of federal civil servants are veterans), labor unions, health care organizations, advocates combating climate change and hunger, and foreign governments, NGO’s and civil society partners. And it is beginning to dawn on many MAGA, including evangelicals, that a lot of US goods and services to support foreign assistance are sourced in their own communities.
Threatened Cuts to Health Care for Americans: Trump and Musk, to the dismay of a growing number of GOP, have not just touched a “third rail” of American politics, they have driven a tank over it. Even if Trump and Musk likely back off, the damage is done. This includes damage among the many MAGA who use Medicaid and rely on rural health clinics and services. Add to this the havoc being caused by anti-vaxxer RFK, which has compelled a GOP Senator to offer a defense of measles vaccines.
Appointment of Lackeys to Oversee Departments and Agencies: the main US foreign affairs, defense, intelligence and law enforcement agencies (assuming Patel gets in at FBI) will be headed by people who would never have gotten close to these jobs in any other Administration, including a “normal” GOP one. The embarrassments and scandals have already begun, with US Defense Secretary Hegseth’s clownish performance in Europe coming on the heels of word that he owes thousands in unpaid taxes. Hegseth, AG Bondi, DNI Gabbard, and Secretary of State Rubio have or are in the process of turning the civil service staff of their agencies into cauldrons of discontent. Each Trump minion has cowardly stood aside as DOGE ravages the reputations and livelihoods of the rank and file of the agencies they supposedly oversee and direct. There will be consequences, including brave people availing themselves of whistleblower laws. Don’t count the civil servants out just yet!
Musk and DOGE Attacks on Federal Workers: the image of Musk and DOGE plummets by the day, as they continue to fail to provide solid data to support their wild claims, and as evidence continues to emerge of Musk’s self-dealing in contracts and federal funding. Trump somehow believes the richest man in the world is the best voice to demand “120-hour weeks!” and “belt tightening!” from average working Americans. The amazing scene in the Oval Office where a seated Trump appears to be powerless as Musk rants and raves created an enduring image of the dysfunction accumulating. Don’t be deceived — outside the MAGA bubble, the Trump alliance with Musk is having devastating impact on perceptions of this Administration. Musk also seems to have provoked a global Tesla boycott, and I suspect further consequences are coming from the EU as he morphs into a threat to their democracies. Meanwhile, at home the cuts to federal jobs are hitting all fifty states and territories.
The FOX-MAGA-X Infotainment Bubble: The Vance speech in Europe is the latest and best example of how the right-wing ecosphere has developed into a self-referential, self-licking ice cream cone, that is built from the bottom up to throw red meat to the already convinced. Vance’s disastrous speech, competing with Hegseth in fecklessness, was written as if it were to be delivered on Fox and Friends. It only succeeded in causing deep, lasting damage to US relations with our European allies. You see this “bubble” effect across a variety of issues and sectors. For example, GOP Members of Congress now starting to plead, behind the scenes for now, with Trump and Musk to stop slashing jobs and businesses in their districts through their ill-designed and punitive freezes and firings. A growing number of MAGA, as pointed out in other diaries, are now realizing what it will mean for them and their loved ones if health care is cut. A growing number of Trump supporters who believed that his election would drop inflation and lower the price of eggs, now see the opposite happening. And what are they getting instead? The renaming of the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America. A GOP proposal to name a federal holiday after Trump. Another to carve Trump’s face into Mt. Rushmore. And a Trump E.O. to rename Mt. Denali in Alaska to Mt. McKinley — against the wishes of both of Alaska’s Republican Senators.
Trump’s Cowardly Madman Theory of Foreign Affairs: US Occupation of Gaza. US Occupation of Greenland. US Occupation of Panama. Canada as 51st State. Mexico as a Tom Clancy-style battle zone between US Special Forces and Mexican Cartels. Threats of force left on the table to ponder, even against NATO allies. Pullout from NATO. Pullout from fighting ISIS in Syria. And greatest of all, an abject abandonment of Ukraine. I say cowardly madman theory, not madman, since Trump never follows through with threats against those who stand firm. Remember the “big, beautiful wall” that Mexico was going to pay for? Remember how the Trump-Kim Jong Un “love affair” was going to lead to the denuclearization of North Korea? Trump has accomplished the inconceivable, the uniting of nearly the entire US foreign policy and national security policy establishment against him. That is why his appointments are all non-entities (except perhaps Little Marco, who seems to be racing towards that status now anyway). We are in the weird situation where we are cheering the anti-Trump comments of people like right wing former UN Ambassador John Bolton and “Old Crow” US Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY). There will be consequences here for Trump as well.
GOP Congressional Weakness, Stupidity and Shortsightedness: the GOP has made an unforced error in delegating their oversight and fiscal management responsibilities under the Constitution to Musk and DOGE. They have zero control over what Musk does and will suffer any blowback. I believe the original idea was the opposite — Musk would do what the GOP wanted to do but lacked the courage to do themselves through legislation and regular order, while Musk would be the Fall Guy. Musk has other ideas. Like the tiger who has tasted man, Musk has developed an appetite for being a Co-President. A normal GOP would put him in his place — but now they can’t. They depend on his billions. So here we are, approaching another government shutdown. The GOP has trapped itself. The only way they deliver on tax cuts for the wealthy is to devastate spending on social programs that modest income Americans depend on. This will bear dire fruit in the 2026 midterm Congressional elections, where the GOP should at least lose its wafer-thin House majority. And let us not yet rule out the Senate — remember Doug Jones in Alabama and the twin victories in Georgia in 2020?
Trump Is Not Well: Lastly, something we all knew long ago, but that is starting to seep into even core MAGA, is that Trump is in poor health mentally. The “Oh my God!” moment for even many of his faithful was the commitment to occupy Gaza. But Trump is digging in on another loser, making Canada a 51st state. Given every opportunity to say that “I was just joking” Trump doubles down. I am not a health care professional, but my uninformed sense is that Trump is in the early stages of dementia. This is on top of his existing, and worsening, afflictions of narcissism, sociopathic lack of empathy, and sadism. What other normal person, when asked whether he would visit the scene of the recent DC airline crash, would respond with “What's the site? The water?" People saw that Trump can’t make time to visit a crash site but has time to go to Daytona and the Super Bowl. That Trump still spends a quarter of his time as President on the golf course. That he wants to pave over the historic White House Rose Garden, so it looks more like Mar-A-Lago. That he is profiting directly, in office, from a meme coin.
In sum
Evidence was there from Day One, and continues to accumulate, that while Trump, Musk and the GOP are causing damage, it has provoked a growing backlash. This backlash, so far, appears remarkably deep, broad and tied to kitchen table issues. Trump, convicted felon and walking symbol of the Seven Deadly Sins, is tied at the hip to an Elon Musk who is devolving into a cartoon character of racism, greed and cruelty.
We also need to bear in mind something very important, but which gets lost in the MAGA bubble-speak. Virtually everything Trump and Musk are doing is not being emplaced via lasting legislation. And the GOP-led House and Senate will not be able to make it so. At best, they will get some level of tax cuts for the rich through.
The rest? The cuts to Medicaid? The GOP House and Senate members are already feeling the blowback from their own constituents. Some GOPers may be ready to follow Trump over the cliff in 2026. But if history proves out, the majority will scramble away from Trump and Musk to save their own hides. If I am wrong, and the GOP indeed makes deep cuts to health care programs, the impact will turbocharge 50501.
So, yes, the havoc is very damaging (and some of the damage has significant consequences to health and human safety). But the task of healing this nation should be less daunting when the current dark era passes. The Trump EO’s, and Musk and his DOGE, will be dust in the wind.
It is a shame to have to endure this. But as I watch something like 50501 appear, I am reminded of that scene from Casablanca.
Hope arises out of darkness. New bonds are forged in a common struggle. And, through adversity, we rediscover a sense of purpose and our own power.
