Nation Review has an 9/27 article predicting a two seat gain in the Senate for the Republicans. The author, John Miller, puts the closest races into "Likely", "Leaning" or "Toss Up" categories. Miller, for the most part, stays with calls he made in July, regardless of what the polls are doing. Miller also cherry-picks his polls in close races, citing Repbulican-friendly polls and ignoring Democrat-friendly ones. When I rate the races with the latest information, I come up with a one seat gain for the Democrats, giving them control of the Senate if Edwards is VP.
Here is how I will call the races: (1) if an incumbent polls 54% or more, or if the leader in a non-incumbent race has at least an 8 point lead, then it is a likely win. (2) If an incumbent is polling 45% or less, it is a likely loss. (3) If an incumbent is polling 51% to 53% or if the leader in a non-incumbent race has a 4 to 7 point lead, then it is a leaning win. (4) If an incumbent is polling 46% to 48%, then it is a leaning loss. (5) If an incumbent is polling 49% to 50% or if the leader is a non-incumbent race has less than a 4 point lead, then it is a "Toss Up". (6) In Louisiana, it is looking like a close December run off, so it is a "Toss Up"
Here is the state of the Senate races, with both my assessment in bold:
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