Let me tell you why I'm certain that Dean will do better in NH than he did in Iowa, and why the dissapointing finish in Iowa doesn't invalidate the idea of his new-school campaign edge.
The IA Campaign was a force. It wasn't grassroots, and it was driven in a military style. The air cover was weak, and the troops on the ground were green and didn't know the territory. They were sapped by the local machine and then a guerilla insurgency with strong air power raced past them.
The Dean campaign, by contrast, in NH is running on woman-power. The core of it is in-home meetings held by locals, events which function like tupperwear parties for Dean. The issues at hand are nowhere near trivial, but the organizing methodology is social rather than military.
I've always felt that this is Dean's strong-suit, that his real ace in the hole was the way the campaign style could be based on community and positive values rather than a military/heierarcy ethic. I've always felt that Dean's campaign felt more "female" in a certain sense, and I always thought this might give him an edge.
Karen Hicks is by all accounts a great organizer, and she's helped nearly 2000 living-room meetings happen. The blog is playing up themes of female empowerment, and Dean's MD cred works to his advantage.
Women are just as smart as men -- in some cases smarter -- but they are radically under-represented in positions of power. I don't think we've seen a political campaign in years that makes it its business to talk about this. Clinton used empathy, and used it well, but didn't do much to empower anyone. Dean's "you have the power" means the most to people who don't have the juice at the moment.
I'm hoping NH has a little like Lysistrata streak in it.
