The Bogeyman's Economy Prescription

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Thursday February 12, 2009 · 12:19 AM PST

2009/02/12 · 00:19

There's a bogeyman in American political circles, but he's also brilliant - at least, more brilliant than most of us around here. Do you all remember that batty diary a couple of days ago about how we were five hours away from societal collapse last September 18th? Well, here's how the Bogeyman explains it:

On Monday September 15, Lehman Brothers, the US investment bank, was allowed to go into bankruptcy without proper preparation. [...] The price of credit default swaps, a form of insurance against companies defaulting on debt, went through the roof as investors took cover. AIG, the insurance giant, was carrying a large short position in CDS and faced imminent default. By the next day Hank Paulson, then US Treasury secretary, had to reverse himself and come to the rescue of AIG.

But worse was to come. Lehman was one of the main market-makers in commercial paper and a large issuer of these short-term obligations to boot. Reserve Primary, an independent money market fund, held Lehman paper and, since it had no deep pocket to turn to, it had to “break the buck” – stop redeeming its shares at par. That caused panic among depositors: by Thursday a run on money market funds was in full swing.

tunesmith

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Tuesday September 23, 2008 · 6:06 PM PDT

2008/09/23 · 18:06

Or rather, who's the person in your state that has power over voting machines, voting rolls, policies of voter records, etc?

I could spend a bunch of time googling this but it's a lot harder than it looks, because it's not necessarily the "Secretary Of State" that is in charge of this in every state.

And, the person in charge of it is not always elected. Sometimes they're appointed. If that's true in your state, then, who does the appointing?

I think it's past time for us to set up an organization that tracks this role in each state, and also solicits donations to make sure we have the right people in office come election day. Think of how history would be different if we had managed to elect someone other than Katherine Harris or Kenneth Blackwell.

Anyone up for putting together an SoS Strategy? (Sounds like a Robert Ludlum book title.)

UPDATE: Please include what state you are in!
UPDATE 2: Keep it coming guys! I'm putting together a spreadsheet. Also include whether they are appointed or elected, and when their term ends. If you know that stuff.

tunesmith

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Monday September 22, 2008 · 5:15 PM PDT

2008/09/22 · 17:15

There are all these confusing narratives out there:

McCain is a "maverick" that stands against Wall Street because they apparently weren't deregulated enough
Conservative Republicans voting "no" while Bush and Democrats vote yes, because they are apparently the responsible-daddy stewards of the economy
Banks are failing because they were costing taxpayers too much (ok, that was Palin's and went nowhere)

But it stuns me that the easiest narrative of all is not getting more traction:

THIS IS THE FAILURE OF REPUBLICANISM.

tunesmith

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Saturday August 30, 2008 · 9:02 PM PDT

2008/08/30 · 21:02

All right, I am probably opening myself up for abuse with this diary. "Too much time on your hands, tunesmith?" "Who cares about Gallup Daily, tunesmith?" "Numbers... HURT MY HEAD, tunesmith!" I know. In my defense, I am actually getting quite a lot done this weekend, staining the deck, training for a 10k, practicing some piano, but... every once in a while I get an idea in my head I just can't shake and I get a little dogged in trying to figure it out.

So the idea here was to try and divine the daily Gallup numbers based off of their reported rolling averages.

I know, I know, it's supposed to be impossible. Billmon wrote about it, Neil got abused for it, theleftcoaster got made fun of a bit... but, like I said, I had an idea.

tunesmith

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Saturday June 07, 2008 · 5:50 PM PDT

2008/06/07 · 17:50

The endorsement finally happened today.

From our perspective, and I'm aware that what I'm about to write will evoke winces in Hillary Clinton supporters, it was a "long time coming". It took Clinton "too long" to "wake up to reality" and to "finally accept" what was "obvious to us all a long time ago".

I'm trying to step back and understand now how those thoughts and attitudes contributed to the gulf between Obama's supporters and hers.

tunesmith

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Wednesday June 04, 2008 · 2:09 PM PDT

2008/06/04 · 14:09

What do you think was said between Barack Obama and Joe Lieberman in their three-minute heated discussion today in the Senate? Opinions vary. According to our crack team of daily kos lipreaders:

tunesmith

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Sunday June 01, 2008 · 8:10 PM PDT

2008/06/01 · 20:10

This will probably be my shortest diary to date, but I thought it was worth pointing out. Before the Puerto Rico primary, Hillary Clinton needed 79.24% of the remaining delegates (uncommitted + edwards delegates) in order to claim the nomination. She had 1876.5, and there were 303.5 remaining delegates. She needed 79.24% of them to reach 2117.

Now, after winning Puerto Rico, she has 1914.5 delegates, with 248.5 remaining. She now needs 81.49% of the remaining delegates. That's a higher percentage than before winning Puerto Rico. She got a lot today, but she didn't even get the bare minimum to hold steady. She fell further behind today - her nomination is even less likely than it was before.

Today's Delegate Situation (Video/Graph)

tunesmith

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Saturday May 24, 2008 · 5:10 PM PDT

2008/05/24 · 17:10

Democratic Delegates from tunesmith on Vimeo.

tunesmith

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Thursday May 01, 2008 · 4:09 PM PDT

2008/05/01 · 16:09

I'm not much of a student of history, but I've picked up on a few things. I know that during the Cold War, we were all freaked out about nuclear war. Not just the possibility of the Soviet Union having an itchy trigger finger, but the United States being a bit unstable about it as well.

Years later I read about how that was a deliberate foreign policy strategy - brinksmanship and saber-rattling - to convince our enemies that we might just be crazy enough to do it. To get them to back down. And over time, it worked - helped along by an unexpectedly enthusiastic Reagan suggesting arms reductions beyond what was planned for. (His advisors hated him for that.)

Dick Cheney had his hand in that policy. A brinksmanship policy that freaked the hell out of everyone while it was happening, but that proved to yield positive results in hindsight (sort of).

What looked crazy at the time was actually rational in hindsight.

This is what gives me pause about this whole Iraq thing sometimes. All current explanations of Cheney rest on the assumptions of him being a power-mad and crazy recluse. It's as if no one can explain Dick Cheney without believing he's crazy.

What if Dick Cheney isn't crazy?

tunesmith

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Thursday April 24, 2008 · 12:44 AM PDT

2008/04/24 · 00:44

Once in a while it's fun to go on flights of fancy.

We're in a period of time right now, right after the Pennsylvania Primary, where Obama's victory looks assured, and Hillary's looking rather desperate given her only strategy is to concede the elected delegates, hope for a dubiously-counted popular vote lead, and expect that to convince the unclaimed superdelegates to move towards her en masse.

The press is loving it. Democrats in disarray! John McCain content to let them tear each other down!

And in the meantime, state after state has record Democratic turnout, with almost no Republican activity. New Democratic voters are being manufactured by the thousands.

It's enough to make you wonder.

tunesmith

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Wednesday April 23, 2008 · 7:19 PM PDT

2008/04/23 · 19:19

Dear Traditional Media,

What do you call a good strategy when it's achieved? You call it a victory. I think we're all in agreement there. But what do you call a bad strategy, successfully achieved?

The answer to that is FAILURE. But to you, dear Traditional Media, it's still apparently a victory.

Let's take a quick general look at Hillary's presidential campaign. Is there one state outcome where she admits failure? Where she openly admits that they really needed a different outcome? I can't think of many, I can't really even think of one. According to her campaign, everything is going exactly to plan. And somehow her "plan" has resulted in her being far behind Barack Obama in elected delegates.

tunesmith

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Wednesday April 02, 2008 · 1:16 PM PDT

2008/04/02 · 13:16

This particular factlet dives into the minutiae of social security projection details a bit, but it is also a hugely overlooked detail that could entirely change the perceptions of the health of social security.

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The Bogeyman's Economy Prescription

ROLL CALL: Kinda. Who's your Secretary Of State?

This IS The Failure Of Republicanism

Gallup Daily: Breaking The Code (UPDATED)

On Clinton And Sexism

(UPDATED) Top Ten Obama/Lieberman Conversation Transcripts

Clinton Underperformed Today

Today's Delegate Situation (Video/Graph)

Cheney's Rational Energy Policy (Thought Experiment)

Hillary and Barack, In An Underground Bunker

Hillary's Was Never A Winning Strategy

Recession Good News For Social Security?