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View Diary: A closer look at DGU numbers (117 comments)

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  •  When you have such a rare event (4+ / 0-)

    false negatives are relatively meaningless to the overall statistical calculation. The studies go over this in detail, so I wonder if you read through them thoroughly. You can have up to a 50% false negative rate without significantly affecting the conclusions.

    The 19 question survey already showed inconsistencies that were ignored by the interviewers when calculating the 2.5 million number, and the false positive rate was assumed to be 0, regardless of the fact that this almost never occurs in any survey, anywhere, about anything.

    Did you completely skip over the comparison to illegal drug use showing false positive rates from 1-10%? Through in the socially positive nature of 'defending your home/person/loved ones', and it strains credibility to the breaking point to claim false positives of 0.

    The assumption that 2.5 million DGUs is incredible merely requires the application of logic. The ratio of gun carrying victims to non-gun carrying victims is at least 1:3 if not 1:5 or higher.

    That means for 2.5 million DGUs to be accurate, the number of similar encounters with a non-armed defender would number > 7.5 million. The total crime stats including unreported crimes is 1.2 million, off by a factor of 6.

    There is simply no way to square these numbers unless you throw in a massive number of 'non-crimes', crimes that wouldn't have occurred even if the defender was unarmed (otherwise the total crime against non-armed victims would be closer to the 7.5 million number).

    And, frankly, since this is a discussion about positive DGU use, flashing a gun to stop a 'non-crime' doesn't count in my book.

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