DittmanResearch

DittmanResearch https://www.dailykos.com/news/DittmanResearch News Community Action Copyright 2005 - Steal what you want Sun, 26 Jan 2020 13:18:38 +0000 Sun, 26 Jan 2020 13:18:38 +0000 Daily Kos rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos) Daily Kos rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos) Morning Digest: Mark Sanford's political career reaches the end of the trail https://www.dailykos.com/story/2018/6/13/1771385/-Morning-Digest-Mark-Sanford-s-political-career-reaches-the-end-of-the-trail The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar. <h4>Leading Off</h4> <a href="#1" name="1">●</a> Primaries: Tuesday brought us primaries in five states—Maine, Nevada, North Dakota, South Carolina, and Virginia—and we'll cover the outcomes the next Digest, but in the meantime, you can <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/06/12/us/elections/results-maine-primary-elections.html">find the raw results here</a>. Note that Maine's secretary of state says that<a href="https://us1.campaign-archive.com/?e=21ebd3d925&u=a629a44de37af801f63b7384a&id=fae452717d"> final results might not be available until next week</a> for their primary, which was conducted using instant-runoff voting. <a href="#2" name="2">●</a> SC-01: Rep. Mark Sanford got more time to explore the Appalachian Trail on Tuesday night when state Rep. Katie Arrington defeated him in the Republican primary for South Carolina's 1st Congressional District. <a href="/campaigns/form/get-the-daily-kos-elections-morning-digest-over-email" class="dk-action-link" data-action="form" data-slug="get-the-daily-kos-elections-morning-digest-over-email" data-src="https://actionnetwork.org/widgets/v3/form/get-the-daily-kos-elections-morning-digest-over-email?format=js&source=widget&can_widget_id=can-form-area-get-the-daily-kos-elections-morning-digest-over-email-184835" data-href="/campaigns/form/get-the-daily-kos-elections-morning-digest-over-email">Campaign Action</a> Sanford, who <a href="https://twitter.com/alanblinder/status/1006727921468411904" title="">conceded defeat hours after the polls closed</a>, trailed Arrington 50.6-46.5 with 99 percent of precincts reporting when we put the Digest to bed. Until Tuesday, Sanford had shown a knack for <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/2/20/1635027/-Morning-Digest-Another-political-abyss-beckons-to-Mark-Sanford-and-he-doesn-t-seem-to-care" title="">surviving self-inflicted political disaster</a>. However, the former governor only defeated an underfunded state representative 56-44 in the 2016 primary, a sign that he didn't exactly have a solid base of support behind him in this seat that runs along South Carolina's southern coast, even years after his <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/5/15/1764314/-Morning-Digest-Connecticut-GOP-convention-whittles-down-crowded-primary-field-for-governor#27" title="">2009 sex scandal</a> and 2013 comeback. Yet despite his poor showing, Sanford continued to take risks by criticizing Trump numerous times despite usually voting with him. The congressman didn't seem to really care, <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/2/20/1635027/-Morning-Digest-Another-political-abyss-beckons-to-Mark-Sanford-and-he-doesn-t-seem-to-care">musing to Politico</a> as far back as February of last year that he was "a dead man walking. If you've already been dead, you don't fear it as much. I've been dead politically." Sanford <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2018/06/10/mark-sanford-primary-trump-south-carolina-635357">kept digging his grave</a> over the ensuing months, opining that Trump had done "some weird stuff" in office (though he was hardly one to talk) and calling Trump's tariffs "an experiment with stupidity." All of that suited Arrington just fine: She ran ad after ad arguing that the district needed a pro-Trump loyalist like herself. Arrington also didn't shy away from hitting the congressman over his old scandals as she implored voters to turn the page on the Mark Sanford era. Trump himself <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/12/us/politics/mark-sanford-trump.html">tweeted out his support for Arrington</a> three hours before the polls closed, declaring that Sanford was "nothing but trouble" and "better off in Argentina." His endorsement came too late to move the needle in any material way, but Sanford's downfall is going to make congressional Republicans even more unwilling to part with Trump on anything for fear of becoming the next Mark Sanford (minus all that Appalachian Trail stuff, of course). Sanford also became just the second House member to lose renomination this cycle, following Republican Robert Pittenger in North Carolina, who <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/5/10/1763202/-Morning-Digest-Inside-GOP-Rep-Robert-Pittenger-s-upset-primary-loss-in-North-Carolina">narrowly went down under rather different circumstances</a> last month. While South Carolina's 1st Congressional District narrowed somewhat at the presidential level in 2016, going from 58-40 Romney to 53-40 Trump, it's very likely to stay red. However, Democrat Joe Cunningham <a href="http://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00650507/1235706/">had raised some $527,000</a> as of the last week of May, not far behind the $583,000 Arrington's taken in during her campaign. rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) AdamPutnam AK-Gov BenJealous BrianKemp BuildaBetterMichigan CaseyCagle ChangingGeorgiasFuture CherryCommunications CO-Gov DanaBalter DannyOConnor DittmanResearch DKEMorningDigest DonnaLynne DunleavyforAlaska Elections EMILYsList FL-Gov FloridaChamberOfCommerce GA-Gov GeorgeFranklin GonzalesResearch gradyjudd GretchenWhitmer HeidiHeitkamp JaredPolis JasonRittereiser JonTester JuanitaPerezWilliams KaraEastman KateBrowning KatieArrington KevinCramer LA-Gov LarryHogan LoriSwanson MarkSanford MarylandTogetherWeRise MattRosendale MD-Gov MeadTreadwell MI-06 MI-Gov MikeDunleavy MN-Gov MT-Sen ND-Sen NE-02 NY-01 NY-24 OH-12 OH-Sen RichardMadaleno RickNolan RonDeSantis RushernBaker SC-01 ScottHawkins SherrodBrown SteveScalise WA-08 _1771385 Wed, 13 Jun 2018 12:00:34 +0000 Morning Digest: GOP Rep. Ryan Costello to GOP: 'Screw you, I'm outta here!' https://www.dailykos.com/story/2018/3/28/1752626/-Morning-Digest-GOP-Rep-Ryan-Costello-to-GOP-Screw-you-I-m-outta-here The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar. <h4>Leading Off</h4> <a href="#1" name="1">●</a> PA-06: In one final bid to make life as painful for his party as possible, retiring Rep. Ryan Costello announced on Tuesday that he was <a href="http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/ryan-costello-congress-primary-gerrymandering-withdraw-20180327.html">yanking his name from the May 15 GOP primary ballot</a> for Pennsylvania's 6th Congressional District. A few hours later, Costello <a href="https://www.scribd.com/document/374964471/Ryan-Costello-paperwork-withdrawing-from-May-PA-06-primary-ballot">officially notified the state</a> that he had withdrawn from the race. <a href="/campaigns/form/get-the-daily-kos-elections-morning-digest-over-email" class="dk-action-link" data-action="form" data-slug="get-the-daily-kos-elections-morning-digest-over-email" data-src="https://actionnetwork.org/widgets/v3/form/get-the-daily-kos-elections-morning-digest-over-email?format=js&source=widget&can_widget_id=can-form-area-get-the-daily-kos-elections-morning-digest-over-email-82045" data-href="/campaigns/form/get-the-daily-kos-elections-morning-digest-over-email">Campaign Action</a> The only Republican who is running for this now-open suburban Philadelphia seat is attorney Greg McCauley, a veritable Some Dude with no known support network and very uncertain finances. As such, he's far from the ideal GOP nominee for a seat that got significantly more Democratic due to court-ordered redistricting: While Costello's old seat (also numbered the 6th) support Mitt Romney 51-48 and Hillary Clinton by just half a point, the new version of the 6th backed Barack Obama 51-47 and Clinton 53-43. However, Team Red may just have to suck it up. Costello frustrated Republicans when he filed to run for re-election, only to announce days later <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/3/26/1751622/-Morning-Digest-Republican-Ryan-Costello-bails-from-at-risk-Pennsylvania-seat-after-filing-deadline">that he wouldn't seek a third term</a>. If Costello had stayed in the ballot just long enough to officially win the GOP nomination, local Republicans would have been able to choose a new nominee after he dropped out. But now, their options are fewer, and none are good. Republicans could consolidate behind McCauley and hope he can run a good campaign with their help; they could instead attempt to convince him to drop out after he wins the GOP primary so that they could still belatedly pick another candidate; or, perhaps toughest of all, they could run a write-in candidate against McCauley in May. For what it's worth, it seems like <a href="http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/ryan-costello-congress-primary-gerrymandering-withdraw-20180327.html">they're going with door number one</a>. Val DiGiorgio, who chairs both the state and Chester County GOP, said Tuesday, "We've got a candidate in the race, Greg McCauley, I think we've got to get to know him a little bit better and [put] a team around him," adding, "We've got some hard work ahead of us." He's not kidding about that last part: No matter what, businesswoman and Air Force veteran Chrissy Houlahan is now a heavy favorite to turn this seat blue in November. rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) AdamLaxalt AFT AK-Gov AlanHowe AmandaRenteria AndrewGillum AntonioVillaraigosa AZ-08 BillWalker CA-45 CA-Gov CarolMiller CaryKennedy ChrisKing chrispeters ChristinaHartman CO-06 CO-Gov CongressionalLeadershipFund DannyTarkanian DaveMin DavidBinderResearch DebbieLesko DelaineEastin DittmanResearch DKEMorningDigest DonnaLynne DunleavyforAlaska EdPerlmutter Elections EllenLipton EMILYsList FL-Gov GavinNewsom GeorgeScott GinnyCaligiuri GregMcCauley GwenGraham IA-02 IA-Gov IN-Sen JamesSmith JaredPolis JasonCrow JasonMetsa JimClyburn JoeMorelle JohnChiang JohnCox JohnScott JonTester KimReynolds LukeMesser M.J.Hegar MagellanStrategies MargueriteWillis MD-Gov MI-09 MI-11 MikeBraun MikeDunleavy MikeJohnson MN-08 MT-Sen NRCC NV-03 NY-25 PA-01 PA-06 PA-10 PhilipLevine Polls PublicPolicyPolling RandyBryce RonCorbett RushernBaker RyanCostello SarahClark SC-Gov ScottWallace ShavonniaCorbin-Johnson StenyHoyer TammyBaldwin TimGreimel ToddRokita TravisAllen TroyDowning TX-31 UnitedSteelworkers VanWhite VoteVets WI-01 WI-Sen WV-03 _1752626 Wed, 28 Mar 2018 12:00:35 +0000 Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Mark Begich's rough week continues https://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/9/26/1332395/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Morning-Digest-Mark-Begich-s-rough-week-continues <div class="dkimg-c"><img src="http://images.dailykos.com/images/18497/large/8412275984_580476ff70_b.jpeg?1360362245" alt="Sens. Mark Begich and Lisa Murkowski" width="550" height="367" /> <div class="dkimg-cap">Democratic Sen. Mark Begich</div> </div> Leading Off: <a href="#1" id="1" name="1">•</a> AK-Sen: On balance, it has been a particularly sucky week for Democratic Sen. Mark Begich. On Wednesday, the freshman Democrat learned that even devoted fealty to the gun lobby isn't <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/09/24/nra-alaska-senate_n_5878300.html">worth a shit</a>, as the NRA announced that the will not endorse his re-election. Mind you, Begich has voted with the NRA 100 percent of the time, but the NRA weaseled out of the endorsement, saying that Begich's vote for Obama's Supreme Court nominees was an automatic disqualification in their eyes. In a (very) small victory, they won't be endorsing Republican Dan Sullivan, either. Compounding the wound, two new polls show Begich trailing. A new Rasmussen poll has Begich <a href="http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2014/alaska/election_2014_alaska_senate">down by five points</a> to Sullivan (48-43). And while it is easy to make Rasmussen cracks (cycles of bad polling will do that), they have not been reflexively pro-GOP this cycle, and PPP also showed Begich trailing earlier in the week. A GOP-sponsored poll by <a href="http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/218922-gop-poll-dem-trails-in-alaska-senate-race">Dittman Research</a>, conducted for the Chamber of Commerce, has Republican Dan Sullivan leading Begich by a similar 49-43 margin. Part of the issue, as is the case in many red states, is the president's job approval, which Dittman says is hovering in the low 30s. rss@dailykos.com (Jeff Singer) AaronWoolf AK-Sen Al Franken AlexMooney AlFranken Americans For Prosperity AmericansforProsperity AmericanSocietyofAnesthesiologists AmiBera AndrewCuomo AndrewRomanoff AnneKuster AnnKirkpatrick AR-Gov Asa Hutchinson AsaHutchinson AZ-01 AZ-02 BobbySchilling BrucePoliquin BruceRauner CA-07 CA-10 CA-36 CA-52 CarolShea-Porter ChadTaylor ClintDidier CO-06 CO-Sen CollinPeterson Concerned Vets ConcernedVets CoryGardner DanBenishek DanNewhouse DanSullivan DittmanResearch DKEMorningDigest DSCC EdGillespie EliotCutler EndingSpending FL-02 FrankGuinta franklinandmarshall FreedomPartners GA-12 GaryPeters GBAStrategies gravis GregOrman GwenGraham HouseMajorityPAC IA-Sen IL-17 IL-Gov IllinoisFreedom JeanneShaheen JeffDenham JerryCannon JoeHeck JohnBarrow JoniErnst KayHagan KrisKobach KS-Gov KS-Sen KY-Sen LA-Sen MagellanStrategies MaggieHassan MarilindaGarcia Mark Udall MarkBegich MarkUdall MarkWarner MarthaMcSally MaryLandrieu ME-02 ME-Gov Media MI-01 MI-Sen MichaelEggman MikeCoffman MikeMichaud MikeRoss MN-07 MN-08 MN-Sen NationalAssociationofRealtors NC-Sen NEA NewEnglandCollege NextGenClimate NH-01 NH-02 NH-Gov NH-Sen _1332395 Fri, 26 Sep 2014 12:00:02 +0000 Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Republicans contemplate abandoning Cochran in Mississippi runoff https://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/6/5/1304472/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Morning-Digest-Republicans-contemplate-abandoning-Cochran-in-Mississippi-runoff <div class="dkimg-c"><a href="http://campaigns.dailykos.com/signup_page/electionsdigest"><img src="http://images1.dailykos.com/i/user/73/Elections-MorningDigest.jpg" alt="Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest banner" height="100" width="550" /></a> <div class="dkimg-cap">Want the scoop on hot races around the country? Get the digest emailed to you each weekday morning. <a href="http://campaigns.dailykos.com/signup_page/electionsdigest">Sign up here</a>.</div> </div> Leading Off: <a href="#1" id="1" name="1">•</a> MS-Sen: With Sen. Thad Cochran and state Sen. Chris McDaniel apparently headed toward a June 24 runoff in the GOP primary, Cochran allies seem pretty apprehensive about his chances of surviving. American Crossroads, a Cochran backer, says <a href="http://cookpolitical.com/story/7368">they're pulling out</a>, and as one unnamed "pro-Cochran strategist" <a href="http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/thad-cochran-s-allies-consider-scaling-back-their-support-for-the-embattled-senator-20140604">tells the National Journal</a>, the Club for Growth has no problem spending heavily on McDaniel's behalf, while the NRSC has much more important things to worry about (namely November), even as they <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/national-republicans-say-they-are-all-cochran-n122441">claim to be "all in"</a> for the incumbent. Cochran still has the Chamber of Commerce and the Mississippi Conservatives super PAC in his corner, but he trailed (<a href="http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/MS_US_Senate_0603.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS">albeit narrowly</a>) on election night and needs to make up that gap. What's more, he openly made a play <a href="http://www.clarionledger.com/story/dailyledes/2014/06/01/mississippi-link-ad-for-thad-cochran/9842467/">for Democratic votes</a>, but anyone who cast ballots in Tuesday's Democratic primary is now ineligible to participate in the Republican runoff, cutting off a potential source of support. And the conventional wisdom says that McDaniel's ultra-enthusiastic tea-flavored backers will be more likely to turn out for an oddly timed election in any event. It also sounds like Cochran's supporters are worried about damaging McDaniel too much—particularly with regard to the nursing home scandal involving Cochran's bedridden wife—lest they unduly soften him up for Democrat Travis Childers. And they'll be facing difficult odds if they try, since challengers <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/06/04/thad-cochran-faces-very-tough-odds-in-the-runoff-heres-why/">typically improve their vote share</a> by a greater margin than incumbents do. We'll see how things play out, but McDaniel may have a relatively easy ride toward the nomination from here on out. rss@dailykos.com (David Nir) 1199 SEIU 1199SEIU Ads AK-Sen American Crossroads AmericanCrossroads AmericanEnergyAlliance AngelTaveras AZ-Gov BobBeauprez BruceBraley Chamber of Commerce ChamberofCommerce ChrisMcDaniel ChristineOdonnell ClayPell CO-Gov DanSullivan DaveCortese DE-Sen DGA DittmanResearch DKE2014HouseRaceRatings DKEMorningDigest DougDucey DSCC Elections EmilyCain FL-26 Fleming&Associates GA-Gov GA-Sen GinaRaimondo IA-Gov IA-Sen JackHatch JackKingston JamesLankford JasonCarter JeffMerkley Joe Miller JoeGarcia JoeMiller JoniErnst LA-05 LeagueofConservationVoters LIBREInitiative MadisonNguyen MagellanStrategies ME-02 MeadTreadwell MI-Gov MI-Sen MikeKopp MS-Sen NationalRepublicanSenatorialCommittee NickRahall NYStateSenate OK-Sen-B OliverKoppell OR-Sen PA-Gov PhilGingrey Primaries PublicPolicyPolling Quinnipiac RGA RI-Gov rodneyalexander SamLiccardo SanJoseMayor ScottGessler ThadCochran TomCorbett TomTancredo TomWolf TroyJackson WorkingFamiliesParty WV-03 _1304472 Thu, 05 Jun 2014 12:00:16 +0000 DK Elections Daily Digest: 4/21 https://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/4/21/968878/-DK-Elections-Daily-Digest-4-21 <div id="uimg_center"><img src="http://images2.dailykos.com/i/user/73/DK_Elections_Daily_Digest_banner_550.jpg" alt="DK Elections Daily Digest banner" height="100" width="550" /></div> Senate: • <a href="http://www.rollcall.com/news/club_for_growth_leader_suggests_lugar_abandon_re_election_bid-205045-1.html">IN-Sen</a>: Chris "Count" Chocola, head of the Club for Growth and himself a Hoosier, says his organization may step in to help oust apostate Sen. Dick Lugar. The CFG has already talked to Treasurer Richard Mourdock, and if they get involved, they could make up for his lackluster fundraising so far. • <a href="http://www.boston.com/news/politics/politicalintelligence/2011/04/brown_asked_koc.html">MA-Sen</a>: Remember when ThinkProgress <a href="http://thinkprogress.org/2011/03/07/scott-brown-david-koch-money">busted Scott Brown</a> for sucking up to David Koch for donations while he was publicly saying he wasn't even thinking about 2012? His pitch worked, I guess: Koch Industries coughed up a $2,500 donation to Brown's campaign last quarter. In other MA-Sen news, why does Barney Frank <a href="http://manager.ghm.zope.net/debug/newton/breaking/x1798436119/Barney-Frank-to-Setti-Warren-Don-t-run-for-Senate">keep doing this</a>? On Monday, he repeated his remarks that he thinks Newton Mayor Setti Warren shouldn't run for Senate, this time to local blog Newton TAB. I honestly think this is a bit embarrassing for Frank, and makes him look like a jackass. It's an admission that his private suggestions to Warren haven't been well-received, and that he's had to take to the press to accomplish what he apparently doesn't have the power to do on his own. It's ugly, and what's more, I don't even see the percentage in it. Why does Frank care so much whether Warren runs? Really, just enough. • <a href="http://www.sctimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=2011104190041">MN-Sen</a>: Former state Sen. and unsuccessful 2010 SoS candidate Dan Severson says he might seek the Republican nod to challenge Amy Klobuchar, who so far has drawn no opponents. Severson says he'll decide by May. Also, attorney Chris Barden, another unsuccessful statewide candidate last year (he ran for AG), says he may attempt a Senate race, too. • <a href="http://www.columbiamissourian.com/stories/2011/04/19/st-louis-businessman-might-challenge-mccaskill/">MO-Sen</a>: It's getting' mighty crowded in here… well, maybe. Wealthy businessman John Brunner (who can at least partially self-fund) says he might join the GOP field to take on Sen. Claire McCaskill. Reps. Todd Akin and Blaine Leutekemeyer are also still weighing bids, while former Treasurer Sarah Steelman and teabagger fave Ed Martin are already in the race. • <a href="http://twitter.com/#!/rollcallpols/status/60733255397281792">VA-Sen</a>: Teabagger Jamie Radtke raised just $55K in Q1 and has only $47K on hand. I'm betting that if George Allen does wind up dealing with a serious speed bump on his way to the GOP nomination, it's going to take the form of Del. Bob Marshall, not Radtke. Still a big if. • <a href="http://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=2011110419024">VT-Sen, VT-AL</a>: Sen. Bernie Sanders raised $770K in Q1 (not bad for the 49th-largest state in the nation) and has over a million in the bank. The Burlington Free Press pegs an uptick in donations to Sanders after his now-famous eight-hour speech on the Senate floor in which he blasted tax cuts for the wealthy. Meanwhile, Rep. Peter Welch now has a million on hand. Gubernatorial: • <a href="http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1590">NJ-Gov, NJ-Sen</a>: Chris Christie's starting to smell like a plate of scungilli left out in the sun after a July picnic. His job approval has dropped to 47-46, according to Quinnipiac, from 52-40 just a couple of months ago. Sen. Bob Menendez isn't doing so hot either, 42-40, but those sorts of numbers are nothing new for him (and are actually better than what he was getting last year). In news of more immediate importance, Dems improved to 47-39 on the generic legislative ballot, up from 43-41. (Thanks to andgarden for spotting that question, tucked away at the very end of the poll.) Also fun: Q asked respondents for an unprompted, open-ended one-word description of Christie. The number one response, by far? "Bully," with 140 mentions. House: • <a href="http://www.leftinalabama.com/diary/8070/rep-mo-brooks-is-not-having-a-town-hall-meeting-today">AL-05</a>: This is just odd. Freshman Republican Mo Brooks cancelled a town hall and replaced it with one-on-one meetings with constituents—by appointment only. What makes this extra-weird is that these meetings are scheduled to take place across the state line in… Tennessee. Reminds me of <a href="http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/1936/ms01-cheney-arrives-ready-to-campaign-hard-in-tennessee">this infamous incident</a> from the classic MS-01 special back in 2008. • <a href="http://twitter.com/#!/greggiroux/status/60748264558952449">IA-04</a>: Some great number-crunching from G-squared: The new 4th CD went for Terry Branstad 59-37 in 2010, 50-48 for GOP gubernatorial candidate Jim Nussle in 2006, and 49-48 for Tom Vilsack in 2002. I'll go one further and tell you that Vilsack lost the new 4th in 1998, 47-52. Greg also says that Rep. Steve King currently represents 47% of new CD. • <a href="http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=D2778A00-398A-4690-821C-496C98336464">IL-03</a>: Politico has a profile of John Atkinson, the Democratic businessman who may challenge Rep. Dan Lipinski from the left. Atkinson, who has already raised a boatload, hasn't formally declared yet (and may be waiting on redistricting), but a main theme for him is Lipinski's vote against healthcare reform. • <a href="http://www.brooklyneagle.com/categories/category.php?category_id=16&id=42811">NY-13</a>: Ex-Rep. Mike McMahon, recently speaking to the Bay Ridge Democratic Club, definitely sounds like he's leaning toward a comeback. The linked piece from the Brooklyn Eagle contains McMahon's ruminations on why he lost last year, but I'm not sure I understand what he thinks the reasons are. On the one hand, he says "[t]here was a drop-off in progressive voters." On the other hand, he cited a memo from Third Way (ugh, but what do you expect) which polled Obama "switchers" and "dropouts." The memo claims that "[s]witchers were eager to vote in this election, whereas droppers didn’t come out for a multitude of reasons, none of them being they were upset with Democrats." What this misses out on, of course, is that Democratic organizations who were pissed with McMahon's vote against healthcare reform were less inclined to bust their asses for him and drag apathetic voters to the polls on his behalf—something members and officials of the Bay Ridge club made plain to him. (The article says some attendees used "harsher language," so since this is Brooklyn we're talking about, enjoy a moment or two imagining what this sounded like.) I'm not sure what McMahon thinks the solution is for next year, if he runs again, but it doesn't sound like he's ready to take back his anti-HCR vote. I think he'd be wise to do so. • <a href="http://www.rollcall.com/news/potential_cicilline_challenger_john_loughlin_heading_back_to_iraq-205048-1.html">RI-01</a>: Former Republican state Rep. John Loughlin, who lost by six points to now-Rep. David Cicilline last year, says he's considering a rematch, but first he's serving another tour of duty in Iraq. I wonder if Cicilline's self-inflicted wounds regarding the financial woes of Providence (the city of which he used to be mayor) will make him vulnerable—if not next year (which of course is a presidential year), then at some point in the near future… or in a primary. • <a href="http://prospect.org/csnc/blogs/adam_serwer_archive?month=04&year=2011&base_name=votevets_supporting_ricardo_sa">TX-Sen</a>: This is just weird. Ashwin Madia (who you may remember as the Dem candidate in MN-03 back in 2008) is also chair of the progressive veterans group VoteVets. His organization put out a statement the other day in which he said it was "encouraging" to see Lt. Gen. Ricardo Sanchez considering the Texas Senate race as a Dem. It's strange, as Adam Serwer points out, because Sanchez had a very suspect record on torture during his tenure as US commander in Iraq, while VoteVets has been very critical of torture. Another spokesman for the group hurried to say that VoteVets was not issuing a formal statement of endorsement, just an attaboy for a fellow servicemember. Other Races: • <a href="http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/120293779.html">WI Recall</a>: Republicans say they will file recall petitions against three Democrats today: Dave Hansen, Jim Holperin, and Robert Wirch. Meanwhile, Greg Sargent says that Dems will file petitions <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/dems-to-file-huge-amount-of-signatures-to-recall-a-fifth-wisconsin-goper/2011/03/03/AFzRZ0DE_blog.html">against a fifth Republican</a>, Alberta Darling, also today. • <a href="http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/120291709.html">WI Sup. Ct.</a>: Yesterday, JoAnne Kloppenburg asked for a recount, which will come at state expense since the final margin of 7,316 votes was less than 0.5%. I'm pretty surprised at the decision, since overturning that kind of result seems almost inconceivable. Grab Bag: • <a href="http://www.dittmanresearch.com/pdfs/Political%20Approval%20Ratings%20Statewide%20March%202011.pdf">Alaska</a> (PDF): Dave Dittman, a pollster and former aide to the late Sen. Ted Stevens, tested Alaskans' feelings about local pols last month. Sen. Mark Begich, up for re-election in 2014, has a 57-33 job approval rating, while Sen. Lisa Murkowski is at 71-27 and Rep. Don Young is at 63-32. Joe Miller, who says he <a href="http://realclearpolitics.blogs.time.com/2011/02/03/joe-miller-may-form-a-pac-as-he-mulls-political-future/">might run</a> against Young next year or against Begich next cycle, has a hilariously awful favorability rating of 18-73. (FWIW, Sarah Palin is at 36-61.) Note that the poll had oddly long field dates: March 3 through March 17. • <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/the-decline-of-the-majority-black-district-and-what-it-means/2011/04/19/AFTqqACE_blog.html">Demographics</a>: Aaron Blake has another good piece looking at the changing demographics of majority-black districts. • <a href="http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/house-races/156943-democratic-super-pac-targets-freshmen-on-ryan-budget">House Majority PAC</a>: The new Dem "super PAC" is out with its first-ever media buy (which they claim is "substantial"—you better be telling the truth), hitting ten GOP freshmen who voted for Paul Ryan's budget plan with radio ad. You can listen to a sample spot against Sean Duffy <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r_bumF7h7FE">here</a>. Click the first link for the other nine names. • <a href="http://www.politico.com/blogs/davidcatanese/0411/Of_balloons_and_refrigerator_magnets_.html">DCCC</a>: Speaking of ad buys, props to Dave Catanese for busting what turned out to be a comically bullshit media "blitz" by the DCCC. I <a href="http://swingstateproject.com/diary/8735/ssp-daily-digest-420">groused about this one</a> yesterday, complaining that the size of the buy was sure to be "quite small," but I had no idea that it would be this comically small: The total purchase was just $6,000 across twenty-five districts, with just $40 (yes, $40!) spent against Larry Buchson in IN-08. Of course, it was the NRCC which provided this info to Catanese, which I'm not sure is such a smart move, since they play this stupid game, too. But my bigger concern is whether local reporters who wrote about these ads will be insulted by the joke dollar values and ignore the D-Trip in the future. I sure as hell would. Redistricting Roundup: • <a href="http://www.denverpost.com/legislature/ci_17886741">Colorado</a>: After instantly descending into a whole bunch of acrimony (mostly, it seemed to me, from the GOP side) after the first batch of maps were produced, both parties agreed to go back to the drawing board and start with a clean slate. Republicans sound a lot more excited about the prospect than Dems, but we'll see if this actually produces any kind of agreement… or if a stalemate eventually leads to court-drawn maps. • <a href="http://www.philly.com/philly/news/20110420_Delco_s_McEwen_to_chair_reapportionment_panel.html">Pennsylvania</a>: No surprise here: The Republican majority on the PA Supreme Court picked a Republican superior court judge to serve as a tiebreaker on the panel which will re-draw Pennsylvania's state legislative maps. This is a direct consequence of a shameful loss of an open Dem-held seat on the court in 2009. • <a href="http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/metropolitan/7528992.html">Texas</a>: A new plan for the Texas state House passed a House committee yesterday. The map increases the number of Latino districts from 28 to 30, but Democrats seem convinced that there are serious VRA issues with it. rss@dailykos.com (David Nir) AK-AL AK-Sen AL-05 AlbertaDarling ashwinmadia Barney Frank BarneyFrank Bernie Sanders BernieSanders BobMenendez ChrisBarden ChrisChocola ChrisChristie ClubForGrowth ColoradoRedistricting DanSeverson DaveHansen DavidCicilline DavidKoch DCCC DittmanResearch DKEMorningDigest DonYoung Elections Fundraising HouseMajorityPAC IA-04 IL-03 IN-08 IN-Sen JamieRadtke JimHolperin JoAnneKloppenburg Joe Miller JoeMiller JohnAtkinson JohnBrunner JohnLoughlin LarryBuchson Lisa Murkowski LisaMurkowski MA-Sen MarkBegich MikeMcMahon MN-Sen MO-Sen MoBrooks NJ-Gov NJ-Sen NY-13 PennsylvaniaRedistricting PeterWelch Polls Quinnipiac RI-01 RicardoSanchez RichardLugar RichardMourdock RobertWirch Sarah Palin SarahPalin Scott Brown ScottBrown SeanDuffy SettiWarren TexasRedistricting TX-Sen VA-Sen VoteVets VT-AL VT-Sen WI Recall WI-07 WIRecall WISupremeCourt _968878 Thu, 21 Apr 2011 13:00:02 +0000