EconomicCycle

EconomicCycle https://www.dailykos.com/news/EconomicCycle News Community Action Copyright 2005 - Steal what you want Mon, 27 Jan 2020 15:32:13 +0000 Mon, 27 Jan 2020 15:32:13 +0000 Daily Kos rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos) Daily Kos rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos) Republicans are Debt-obsessed Economy Squashers https://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/3/2/1191049/-Republicans-are-Debt-obsessed-Economy-Squashers Republicans are Economy-squashers; Because Republicans are obsessed with only one side of the Economy Coin: Debts, deficits, spending. And because they totally discount and ignore the other sided of the Economic Coin: Jobs, investments, revenues. <img src="http://i158.photobucket.com/albums/t106/OnlyObvious/GovtDocs/Quarter_two_sides_zps9a54a389.jpg" /> You can't have a strong growing economy without a balanced and rationale use of both. Both sides of the same Economic Coin. You can't have spending without revenues. Outgo, without Income. Republicans have chosen the Outgo side of the Economic Equation to obsess on -- no matter who's Income gets squashed in the process. Because in their view closing Tax loopholes, ending Big Oil subsidies, taxing the Wall Street transactions, do nothing to pay-down our National Debts. (even though these sources, especially Wall Street bankers, often do seem to add to them.) <img src="http://i158.photobucket.com/albums/t106/OnlyObvious/GovtDocs/CBO_GPD_Deficit_zps691467f2.jpg" /> What Economic Dolts!   Income is income. Most people when faced with mounting debt, look for "extra sources" of those. Even to the point of getting a second job;  Or cashing-in their 401k's;  Or selling some of their consumer toys. Not Congress -- when faced with mounting debt, they quit paying the Electric Bill, they cut back on Groceries, they tell the kids to get a Paper-route, cut lawns, shovel their snow. They dip into the kid's college savings plan -- to pay off their own wall-street gambling debts. If only their were an Economic Literacy Test -- that congress persons were required to take -- and pass -- before being given the important responsibility of "Balancing the Nation's Budget." rss@dailykos.com (jamess) BenBernanke CBO Econ101 EconomicCycle EconomicLiteracy Economy Framing GDP Jobs JobsDeficit NationalDebt RecessionaryPolicy RevenueProblem RobertReich Sequester Talking Points TalkingPoints taxloopholes _1191049 Sat, 02 Mar 2013 18:40:36 +0000 The World sees our National Debt differently than Austerity Hawks do https://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/2/3/1184369/-The-World-sees-our-National-Debt-differently-than-Austerity-Hawks-do The World sees our National Debt (investing in our T-Bills) as a "Flight to Safety;" as Opportunity. In fact, a significant portion of Americans see it the same way: Don't bet against America -- but rather Invest in America. <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional/10/07/treasury_securities.pdf">Flight to Safety and U.S. Treasury Securities</a> (pdf) by Bryan Noeth and Rajdeep Sengupta <blockquote>Government debt of the United States is typically issued in the form of U.S. Treasury securities. These securities—simply called Treasuries -- are widely regarded to be the safest investments because they lack significant default risk. Therefore, it is no surprise that investors turn to U.S. Treasuries during times of increased uncertainty as a safe haven for their investments. This happened once again during the recent financial crisis. In fact, the increase in the demand for Treasuries was sufficiently large so that prices actually rose with an increase in the supply of government securities. [...] In summary, there has been a large expansion in the amount of Treasury security offerings while yields on Treasuries have actually declined. Stated differently, the prices on Treasury securities have actually increased in the face of a rapidly expanding supply of these securities. This anomalous behavior in the market for Treasuries can be explained by a significant increase in the demand for Treasuries -- “the flight to safety” in the event of a financial crisis. Evidently, the effect of the increase in the supply of securities in government auctions was more than offset by the increase in investors’ demands for safer investments. Who Holds This Debt? Figure 3 shows the quarterly flow of funds data on the holdings of U.S. Treasuries by various sectors of the economy. Prior to the crisis, the proportion of Treasury securities held by each sector of the economy was roughly unchanged over the early part of this decade. The largest shares of available Treasury securities have been held by the domestic financial sector and the rest of the world. Post-crisis, these two sectors saw the most dramatic increases in their share of Treasury securities holdings. Interestingly, it seems that although the U.S. was at the epicenter of the financial crisis, both foreign and domestic investors still sought the safety of U.S. government debt instruments. These data present evidence in support of the hypothesis that investors see U.S. Treasuries as relatively risk-free. However, it will be interesting to see how investors view U.S. securities in the future as debt levels continue to rise. Rajdeep Sengupta is an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Bryan Noeth is a research analyst at the Bank. <img src="http://i158.photobucket.com/albums/t106/OnlyObvious/Reaganomics/Holders_US_Debt_FedSTL_500_zpsa5a1ead5.jpg" /> <a href="http://i158.photobucket.com/albums/t106/OnlyObvious/Reaganomics/Holders_US_Debt_FedSTL_zpsa6445d69.jpg">larger image</a> </blockquote> That widening tan band in the chart, looking from left to right -- that's "The World" stepping up to invest in America, in these sketchy times of global economic turmoil. That smaller, but widening dark-blue band in the chart, looking from left to right --  that's "US Households" who know better than to actually bet against America.  Not in the long run. In fact, Lending money TO the USA (ie buying in our T-Bills) is such an attractive "piggy bank" for some countries -- that some are willing to PAY US for that privilege -- willing to take on Negative Bond Rates, all to have a guaranteed seat on that Flight to USA Safety. rss@dailykos.com (jamess) 21stCenturyJobs AmericanJobsAct Austerity AusterityCuts AusterityFail AusterityHawks BettingAgainstAmerica BudgetKnives Climate Action ClimateAction Debt DemandSide EconomicCycle EconomicEngine Economy ErzaKlein FlighttoSafety Framing FutureInvestments GDP GOP GrowthProblem Infrastructure investinginamerica Investment Jobs Nation Building NationalDebt NationBuilding NegativeRates Penny Wise PennyWise PrimingthePump Progressives Republicanosmosis Sequester SharedSacrifice SocialFabric SocialPact spendingcuts T-Bills Talking Points TalkingPoints Tea Party TeaParty U.STreasuries Unemployment VoodooContractions _1184369 Sun, 03 Feb 2013 20:08:29 +0000 What happens when Austerity Cuts actually cut Economic Demand? https://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/2/2/1184159/-What-happens-when-Austerity-Cuts-actually-Cuts-Economic-Demand What happens?  The severe European downdraft happens ... Austerity Fails: <a href="http://thinkprogress.org/economy/2013/01/23/1487711/austerity-fails-europe-debt-grows/">European Nations See Debt Grow Despite Deep Spending Cuts</a> by Pat Garofalo, thinkprogress.org -- Jan 23, 2013 <blockquote>Since the onset of the financial crisis, European countries have attempted to deal with their economic malaise by implementing austerity packages, slashing government spending and laying off public workers. However, such measures have proved self-defeating, as the austerity measures blunted economic growth and caused Europe’s debt to <a href="http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_EUROPE_FINANCIAL_CRISIS?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT">actually grow</a>: <blockquote>[...]     The countries’ total government debt relative to their annual economic output was barely changed at 90 percent of gross domestic product in the third quarter of 2012 compared with 89.9 percent for three months earlier, the EU’s statistics office Eurostat reported. It was up from 86.8 percent of GDP a year earlier.</blockquote> Austerity has also, among other things, pushed Eurozone unemployment to a <a href="http://thinkprogress.org/economy/2013/01/08/1413261/europe-austerity-record/">record high</a> and threatened Great Britain with a triple-dip recession. Both the <a href="http://thinkprogress.org/economy/2013/01/03/1395321/international-monetary-fund-admits-it-severely-underestimated-cost-of-austerity/">International Monetary Fund</a> and the <a href="http://thinkprogress.org/economy/2013/01/22/1479831/economic-crisis-67-million-jobs/">International Labor Organization</a> have warned against further fiscal consolidation, saying that it would quash economic growth even more, thereby doing nothing to reduce debt loads. The National Institute for <a href="http://thinkprogress.org/economy/2012/10/31/1115711/study-austerity-fail/">Economic and Social Research</a> found that European debt loads will be higher, not lower, because of austerity. [...]</blockquote> What happens when <a href="http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/01/19/1180437/-Say-hello-to-the-Big-Bait-and-Switch">planned Austerity Cuts</a> actually end up cutting economic demand? Blunted economic growth happens ... just ask the EU. For an Economy to thrive, someone has to be "demanding" (ie buying) its products and services. When you're "austerely" worried about your own economic future, your job stability -- you're generally not doing that much "demanding" (beyond the essentials). Which does not, a robust economy make ... just ask Europe. rss@dailykos.com (jamess) 21stCenturyJobs AmericanJobsAct Austerity AusterityCuts AusterityFail BudgetKnives Catfood Commission CatfoodCommission Climate Action ClimateAction ConstrastandCompare CuttingEntitlements Debt DemandSide EconomicCycle EconomicEngine Economy EuropeanUnion Framing GDP Germany GOP GrowthProblem Infrastructure Investment Jobs Keynes Nation Building NationBuilding Penny Wise PennyWise PrimingthePump Progressives RevenueProblem Sequester SharedSacrifice SocialFabric SocialPact spendingcuts Talking Points TalkingPoints Tea Party TeaParty Unemployment VoodooContractions _1184159 Sat, 02 Feb 2013 17:39:03 +0000 Alan Grayson Explains Economic Stimulus https://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/7/15/884686/-Alan-Grayson-Explains-Economic-Stimulus Why can't the White House make the case for what it's trying to do about the economy as clearly as Rep. Alan Grayson does in a few simple sentences?: <object width="640" height="385"><param value="http://www.youtube.com/v/kTPwH3XIjO4&rel=0&color1=0xb1b1b1&color2=0xd0d0d0&hl=en_US&feature=player_embedded&fs=1" name="movie"></param><param value="true" name="allowFullScreen"></param><param value="always" name="allowScriptAccess"></param><embed width="640" allowfullscreen="true" allowscriptaccess="always" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/kTPwH3XIjO4&rel=0&color1=0xb1b1b1&color2=0xd0d0d0&hl=en_US&feature=player_embedded&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" height="385"></embed></object> rss@dailykos.com (Th0rn) ALANGRAYSON Bill Clinton BillClinton EconomicCycle GreatDepression NationalDebt Stimulus SupplyAndDemand _884686 Thu, 15 Jul 2010 22:52:02 +0000 Alternative solutions to the economic cycle https://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/6/621959/-Alternative-solutions-to-the-economic-cycle Today, the dow jones dropped several hundred additional points, for the second day in a row after the bailout package was passed. What do the subprime financial crisis, anti-virus software, the board game Go and the coming singularity have in common? rss@dailykos.com (wikoogle) Bailout Bubble EconomicCycle Failure _621959 Mon, 06 Oct 2008 21:24:20 +0000