NJ-06

NJ-06 https://www.dailykos.com/news/NJ-06 News Community Action Copyright 2005 - Steal what you want Sun, 26 Jan 2020 15:34:38 +0000 Sun, 26 Jan 2020 15:34:38 +0000 Daily Kos rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos) Daily Kos rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos) Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Tuesday's biggest nailbiter: Virginia attorney general's race https://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/11/5/1253116/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Morning-Digest-Tuesday-s-biggest-nailbiter-Virginia-attorney-general-s-race <div class="dkimg-c"><a href="http://campaigns.dailykos.com/signup_page/electionsdigest"><img src="http://images1.dailykos.com/i/user/73/Elections-MorningDigest.jpg" alt="Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest banner" height="100" width="550" /></a> <div class="dkimg-cap">Want the scoop on hot races around the country? Get the digest emailed to you each weekday morning. <a href="http://campaigns.dailykos.com/signup_page/electionsdigest">Sign up here</a>.</div> </div> Leading Off: • VA-Gov, VA-AG: Unlike the scattershot polling in New Jersey, there's broad agreement in Virginia as to where the governor's race stands. The final two polls of the contest are very similar in terms of their spread: <a href="http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=1974">Quinnipiac</a> has Democrat Terry McAuliffe winning by 6, while <a href="http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/11/mcauliffe-leads-final-poll-by-7.html">PPP</a> has him up 7. That's right around <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2013/governor/va/virginia_governor_cuccinelli_vs_mcauliffe_vs_sarvis-4111.html#polls">RCP's final average</a> of 6.7 percent and <a href="http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2013-virginia-governor-cuccinelli-vs-mcauliffe">Pollster's</a> 6.9. However, unlike almost every other polling firm, PPP sees Libertarian Robert Sarvis fading into the low single digits. He's averaged a stubbornly high 9 to 10 points, but PPP puts him at just 4, the lowest score any pollster's ever given Sarvis. Third-party candidates typically collapse as voters ultimately come home to one of the major options; a good example came in the 2009 New Jersey gubernatorial election, when independent Chris Daggett finished with under 6 percent of the vote, <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2009/governor/nj/new_jersey_governor_corzine_vs_christie-1051.html#polls">around half</a> of what polls showed him getting. Regardless of what Sarvis' supporters do, though, McAuliffe is indisputably on track to win. PPP also offered some numbers on the much tighter attorney general's race, where they find Democrat Mark Herring narrowly edging Republican Mark Obenshain 47-45. HuffPo Pollster <a href="http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2013-virginia-attorney-general-obenshain-vs-herring">threw together a chart</a> of all polling in the contest, and wow is it close: Overall, Obenshain has a 43.1 to 43.0 "lead," if you can even call it that. <div class="dkimg-c"><img src="http://s3.amazonaws.com/dk-production/images/56190/large/Herring_vs._Obenshain_polling_chart.png?1383610685" alt="Chart of all polling in the 2013 Virginia attorney general's race between Mark Herring (D) and Mark Obenshain (R)" width="550" height="367" /></div> Democrats would badly love to pick up this seat, which of course is being vacated by none other than Cuccinelli. This one will almost surely be Tuesday's most exciting election. rss@dailykos.com (David Nir) AlanSeabaugh AlexSink AllanFung AnnaLittle BarbaraBuono beverlyyoung BillCassidy BillDeBlasio ChadTaylor CharlieBass CharlieCrist ChrisChristie DanFrei DanMorrison DavidJolly DCCC DKEMorningDigest EdMangano Elections FL-13 FL-Gov FrankHibbard GA-Sen GeorgeCretekos GregAbbott IN-02 JessicaEhrlich JoeBock JoeLhota KarenSeel KellyLoeffler KenCuccinelli KevinFaulconer KS-Sen LA-Sen LarryCrow LeeTerry MA-Gov Marist MarkHerring MarkObenshain MarthaCoakley ME-Gov MikeMichaud MO-08 NassauExec NathanFletcher NE-02 NeilBrickfield NH-Sen NJ-06 NJ-Gov NYC-Mayor PA-Gov PeterKinder Polls PublicPolicyPolling Quinnipiac RI-Gov RickBaker RobertSarvis RyanDvorak Scott Brown ScottBrown SDMayor Siena SpecialElections SurveyUSA TerryMcAuliffe TexasTribune TomCorbett TomSuozzi TX-Gov UniversityofTexas VA-AG VA-Gov WendyDavis _1253116 Tue, 05 Nov 2013 13:00:12 +0000 Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Gabe Gomez may finally get some outside help https://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/6/13/1215812/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Morning-Digest-Gabe-Gomez-may-finally-get-some-outside-help <div class="dkimg-c"><a href="http://campaigns.dailykos.com/signup_page/electionsdigest"><img src="http://images1.dailykos.com/i/user/73/Elections-MorningDigest.jpg" alt="Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest banner" height="100" width="550" /></a> <div class="dkimg-cap">Want the scoop on hot races around the country? Get the digest emailed to you each weekday morning. <a href="http://campaigns.dailykos.com/signup_page/electionsdigest">Sign up here</a>.</div> </div> Leading Off: • MA-Sen: Big Dog Alert! Bill Clinton is <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2013/06/bill-clinton-ed-markey-massachusetts-92649.html">coming to Boston</a> on Saturday to campaign for Rep. Ed Markey, giving the Democrat a highly unusual superfecta. Michelle Obama was in town last week, Joe Biden showed up at a DC event (with Al Gore!) on Tuesday, Barack Obama led a rally in Beantown on Wednesday, and now it'll be Bill's turn. All he needs is Bowzer from Sha Na Na, <a href="http://tv.msnbc.com/2013/05/07/crooner-jon-bowzer-bauman-hits-trail-for-colbert-busch/">the king of special elections</a>, to complete the ultra-rare uberfecta. Markey's also relying on something else for fundraising: That garbagey McLaughlin & Associates poll showing Gabriel Gomez down just one point (which we <a href="http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/06/11/1215232/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Morning-Digest-Field-is-set-in-New-Jersey-Senate-race-with-Booker-leading?detail=hide">shredded to pieces</a>) has made at least one appearance <a href="http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/markey-cites-gop-poll-in-claiming-mass-special">in a Markey email blast</a>. I guess it's pretty predictable that a campaign will always cite worst-case scenarios when trying to drum up dollars, even if they're dreamed up by the other side and almost certainly bogus. That's just politics... but politics is often pretty lame. Meanwhile, Gomez <a href="http://thehill.com/video/campaign/304969-gomez-launches-new-ad-mocking-democratic-attacks">has a new ad out</a> that takes the very hackneyed "fake attacks" route, with a narrator intoning with faux horror: "Gabriel Gomez is a very bad man. He kills old people. He hates women. He even leaves the toilet seat up." Weak stuff, and there's no word on the size of the buy. Gomez may finally getting some last-minute outside help, though. A new group with the (I'm sure deliberately) confusing name of Americans for Progressive Action <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2013/06/12/pro-gomez-group-launching-700k-ad-buy/">will reportedly spend $700,000</a> on the airwaves on Gomez's behalf. Aaron Blake says that the organization itself hasn't even confirmed the buy, though, and also points out <a href="http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/news/state-regional-govt-politics/tampa-firm-serves-as-financial-clearinghouse-for-i/nSXQT/">that their treasurer</a>, Nancy Watkins, has been associated with a whole bunch of shadowy GOP money operations. The Markey campaign also noted that Watkins served as treasurer for none other that <a href="http://www.edmarkey.com/releases/2013/bachmanns-back-markey-campaign-statement-on-new-negative-ad-campaign-against-ed-launched-by-tea-party-group-with-michele-bachmann-ties/">Bachmann for President</a>. rss@dailykos.com (David Nir) AmericansforProgressiveAction Bill Clinton BillClinton BillCole CoryBooker CWA DKEMorningDigest EdMarkey Elections FrankPallone GabrielGomez IL-Gov KRISTINOEM LisaMadigan MA-Sen MarkCritz McLaughlin&Associates MikeRounds NJ-06 NJ-12 NJ-Sen NJEA PA-12 RickRenzi RushHolt SD-Sen SpecialElections WATN WV-03 _1215812 Thu, 13 Jun 2013 12:00:13 +0000 Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Introducing our 2012 Senate race ratings https://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/3/22/1076661/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Morning-Digest-Introducing-our-2012-Senate-race-ratings <div class="dkimg-c"><a href="http://campaigns.dailykos.com/signup_page/electionsdigest"><img src="http://images1.dailykos.com/i/user/73/Elections-MorningDigest.jpg" alt="Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest banner" height="100" width="550" /></a> <div class="dkimg-cap">Want the scoop on hot races around the country? Get the digest emailed to you each weekday morning. <a href="http://campaigns.dailykos.com/signup_page/electionsdigest">Sign up here</a>.</div> </div> Leading Off: • Daily Kos Elections is pleased to announce our first set of <a href="http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/03/21/1075960/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Senate-race-ratings-Initial-ratings-for-2012?detail=hide">Senate race ratings</a> for the 2012 election cycle: <div class="dkimg-c"><iframe width='540' height='225' frameborder='0' src='https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0At9k6QrlThx6dGI5WjBDVXc2VW1ldEd0UTM3blc0UEE&single=true&gid=7&range=A1%3AE13&output=html'></iframe></div> Every contest not listed here is considered "safe" for one party or the other. For our full writeup of every single race (including the "safe" ones), <a href="http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/03/21/1075960/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Senate-race-ratings-Initial-ratings-for-2012?detail=hide">please click here</a>. We'll be keeping this list updated regularly throughout the election cycle, and every time we issue a change, we'll keep you posted in the Daily Digest, so stay tuned! P.S. Look for our gubernatorial race ratings later today at <a href="http://elections.dailykos.com/">Daily Kos Elections</a>. rss@dailykos.com (David Nir) AFL-CIO AmericanActionNetwork AngusKing AnnaLittle AnnKirkpatrick AZ-01 AZ-02 AZ-06 AZ-09 AZ-Sen BenCardin BenQuayle BobMcDonnell BradSchneider BrianHiggins CampaignforPrimaryAccountability CathyMcMorrisRodgers CharlieRangel ClubForGrowth DavidGill DavidSchweikert DavidStorobin Demographics DKEMorningDigest DonManzullo FL-02 FloridaRedistricting Fred Upton FredUpton GeorgeAllen IL-10 IL-13 IL-16 JerryPetrowski Jesse Jackson Jr. JesseJacksonJr JohnDelaney JohnMills KyrstenSinema LewFidler LisaBrown MaryVerner MattCartwright MattGoetten MD-06 MD-Sen ME-Sen MI-06 MiladPooran NancyArgenziano NanStockholmWalden NC-08 NewYorkRedistricting NikkiHaley NJ-06 NJ-Sen NRCC NY-06 NY-13 NY-26 NY-27 NY-SD-27 PA-17 PatrickGallivan Polls Quinnipiac Rasmussen Reports RasmussenReports RichardCarmona RichardHudson RichCowan RogerGoodman RonBarber RoryLancman RWDSU ScottKeadle StephenHawley Ted Cruz TedCruz ThurmanThomas TimHolden TimKaine TX-Sen VA-Gov VA-Sen VernonRobinson WA-01 WA-05 WI Recall WIRecall _1076661 Thu, 22 Mar 2012 12:00:04 +0000 DK Elections Daily Digest: 2/28 https://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/2/28/950868/-DK-Elections-Daily-Digest-2-28 • <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/states/arizona/2011-02-25-4054648030_x.htm">AZ-Sen</a>: Maybe, just maybe, this will be the last time we'll hear ridiculous speculation about, Joe Arpaio, the thug sheriff of Maricopa County, running for higher office. The 78-year-old Arpaio said he won't seek Arizona's open senate seat, <strike>following his announcement a few weeks ago that he won't seek re-election as sheriff, either. I'm wondering if the two developments are not unrelated – Arpaio can silence the senate gossip because he no longer needs to use it to raise money for his next local race. Anyhow, I'll be glad to be done with this guy.</strike> UPDATE: My mistake. I misread a line in the link and thought Arpaio was finally retiring, too - but only Kyl is, unfortunately. Still, Arpaio did say that he will not seek Kyl's seat. In other AZ news, what if you threw a teabagger convention and the Republican senate candidate didn't come? Jeff Flake <a href="http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/146221-rep-flake-wont-address-tea-party-convo-in-phoenix">was a no-show</a> at the Tea Party Patriots' confab in Phoenix this past weekend, and the 'baggers seem happy he stayed away. Unlike, say, Maine's Olympia Snowe, Flake doesn't appear to be interested in making nice with the nutters. I'm convinced that a more suitable (to the movement conservatives) candidate will emerge. • <a href="http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20110223/ARTICLE/302239986">FL-Sen, FL-13</a>: Not quite sure what to make of this – John Boehner was just down in Sarasota, FL, headlining a high-dollar fundraiser for a guy who hardly needs the money, super-rich car dealer Vern Buchanan. Is this Boehner trying to convince Buchanan to seek re-election to the House and avoid a throw-down with fellow Rep. Connie Mack? Or just the Speaker earning chits while playing a few rounds of golf during a Congressional recess? • <a href="http://www.khon2.com/news/local/story/Inouye-weighs-in-on-Akakas-race-funding-for-2012/qZ6x1W3Zr0OS3dkqnqnxig.cspx">HI-Sen</a>: This piece on the Hawaii senate race is worth reading in full. The nominal hook here is Sen. Dan Inouye's comments that, as Chair of the Appropriations Cmte. (and President Pro Tem of the senate), he won't have as much time to raise money for his old buddy Dan Akaka, who is facing re-election next year. But there are a whole host of other questions implicated here: Is this just Inouye trying to kick Akaka's ass into gear? (Akaka only has $66K on hand and faced a serious primary challenge from Rep. Ed Case in 2006.) Will Akaka (88 yo in 2012) actually even run again? Is former Gov. Linda Lingle going to run? If Akaka steps aside, who might take his place on the Dem side? Again, click the link to see the state of play. • <a href="http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2011/02/cutler-says-its.php">ME-Sen, ME-Gov</a>: Eliot Cutler, the independent candidate for governor last year who came in just a couple of points behind the winner (Republican Paul LePage), says he is "unlikely" to challenge Sen. Olympia Snowe, proclaiming he has "no desire to live in Washington." He also says he isn't ruling out another gubernatorial bid in 2014. Also, one possible Dem candidate, former AG Janet Mills, <a href="http://www.onlinesentinel.com/news/former-ag-millsjoins-preti-flaherty_2011-02-24.html">just joined a law firm</a>, suggesting she probably isn't interested in a senate race. (Mills became the first woman AG of Maine in 2009, but because the position is selected by the legislature, she was replaced by a Republican after the GOP swept into power last fall. NB: This is how you avoid Kelly Ayottes.) • <a href="http://www.politico.com/blogs/davidcatanese/0211/Dingell_foe_mulling_Michigan_Senate_race.html">MI-Sen, MI-15</a>: Rob Steele, last seen losing to Rep. John Dingell by 17 points in 2010, says he's considering a challenge to Sen. Debbie Stabenow (who lacks any real high-profile opposition at the moment). Steele also says he doesn't think he'll run again Dingell again, whose district might get re-drawn to include heavily blue Ann Arbor. • <a href="http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/political-fix/article_ec28cb72-41cf-11e0-aa56-0017a4a78c22.html">MO-Sen, MO-02</a>: I thought Rep. Todd Akin had definitively said "no" to a senate bid, but in response to some renewed chatter about a possible run, he would only say: "Some people want to draft me for Senate but you know engineers. It's just one thing at a time." You know engineers! Anyhow, if there's a chance Akin might get in, this could help explain former state GOP chair Ann Wagner's recent remarks that she might run for MO-02. (Wagner, of course, is also in the mix for the senate race.) • <a href="http://wrnipoliticsblog.wordpress.com/2011/02/25/rhode-island-tip-sheet-national-exposure-for-ri-penches/">RI-Sen</a>: State GOP chair Gio Cicione says he won't take on Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, citing (like Cranston Mayor Allan Fung before him) the high cost of a race. These guys think a Rhode Island senate race would be expensive? They ought to check things out a state or two to the west. Anyhow, Dave Catanese caught up with former Providence mayor (and well-known felon) Buddy Cianci, whose name surfaced in PPP's most recent poll of the race. Cianci <a href="http://www.politico.com/blogs/davidcatanese/0211/Buddy_Cianci_still_has_some_juice.html">hasn't completely ruled out a run</a>, but says it's not "realistic." Also of note, PPP <a href="http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/02/rhode-island-politician-report-card.html">has a report card out</a> on Rhode Island politicians' job approval ratings. • <a href="http://www.rollcall.com/news/-203632-1.html">TX-Sen</a>: Former Dallas mayor Tom Leppert, who resigned just a few days ago, made it official: He's running for senate. • <a href="http://twitter.com/cbabington/status/41233530558087168">VA-Sen</a>: The already-painful Tim Kaine watch – is it a pimple or a boil? – will soon be over: the DNC chair promises he'll make a decision in a week, according to the AP's Charles Babbington. (I predict "gummy bear.") On the other side of the equation, ultra-far-right insano-Republican, state Delegate Bob Marshall, says he's <a href="http://hamptonroads.com/2011/02/known-going-own-way-va-lawmaker-weighs-senate-run">considering another run</a>. Marshall almost stole the GOP nomination for VA-Sen in 2008 from the super-sad Jim Gilmore, but that near-upset took place at a Republican convention – this time, the party's nominee will be selected in a primary. • <a href="http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/political-fix/article_9955f9ce-41fc-11e0-9970-0017a4a78c22.html">MO-Gov</a>: Republican Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder says he'll make an announcement "this spring," and if it's anything other than, "I'm running for governor," I think people will be shocked. Anyhow, mark your calendars – this means Kinder might open his trap again any time between March 20th and June 21st! • <a href="http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/02/perdue-disconnect.html">NC-Gov</a>: Since North Carolina is their home state, it looks like PPP will be testing NC-Gov just about every month. Incumbent Dem Bev Perdue trails almost-certain opponent Pat McCrory 49-37. (Last month it was 47-40.) • <a href="http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2011/02/winograd-to-ent.php">CA-36</a>: 2010 and 2006 primary candidate Marcy Winograd announced she's entering the special election for departing Rep. Jane Harman's seat. The CW says Winograd is likeliest to hurt SoS Debra Bowen, but I'm not really sure she's capable of making any material difference in this race. • <a href="http://twitter.com/cheshirepatcher/statuses/41520454439145472">CT-05</a>: Former one-term state House Rep. Elizabeth Esty announced she's running for Chris Murphy's now-open house seat. Esty (not to be confused with the DIY craft-selling website) narrowly lost a rematch in 2010 after narrowly winning a traditionally Republican district in 2008. • <a href="http://vip.politickernj.com/45203/little-vows-take-pallone-down">NJ-06</a>: Teabagger Anna Little, who won an upset primary victory in 2008 but lost to Rep. Frank Pallone by 11 points in the general election, says she's back for a rematch. The woman Little beat for the GOP nomination last year, richie rich Diane Gooch, is also weighing another bid. • <a href="http://www.nmpolitics.net/index/2011/02/griego-considering-cd1-run-%E2%80%93-if-heinrich-runs-for-senate">NM-01</a>: Dem state Sen. Eric Griego says he'd "seriously consider" running for Rep. Martin Heinrich's seat if Heinrich makes the jump to the open-seat senate race. • <a href="http://gawker.com/#!5769037/the-craigslist-congressman-and-the-crossdressing-prostitute">NY-26</a>: Well, that explains that. In other news, Conservative Party chair Mike Long seems to be <a href="http://www.capitaltonight.com/2011/02/conservatives-may-give-early-ny-26-nod/">tipping his hand</a> that his party will in fact support GOP nominee Jane Corwin. • <a href="http://politicmo.com/2011/02/25/incumbent-carnahan-republican-stouffer-to-run-for-secretary-of-state">MO-SoS</a>: MO SoS Robin Carnahan says she's running for re-election to her current post. Republican state Sen. Bill Stouffer, who lost a primary last year to Vicki Hartzler (who went on to beat Ike Skelton in the general), also says he'll run for the post. • <a href="http://www.pcworld.com/article/220226/uk_takes_its_census_online.html">Census</a>: Our friends across the pond in England and Wales will take their census this year. What makes this interesting is that for the first time, Britons will be able to submit their census forms online. Special Elections: Johnny Longtorso has the goods on tomorrow night's special elections: <blockquote>After the excitement of last week, this week is a bit of a letdown. There are three seats up: Florida's SD-33, formerly held by Frederica Wilson, is merely a formality, with the Democrat likely going to win 80-20 or so. There's also a formerly Dem-held Senate seat in Mississippi, SD-12; despite no party ID being on the ballot, I'm pretty confident in guessing all three candidates running are Dems (it's along the Mississippi River, so in heavily-Democratic territory). And in Maine, HD-11, an extremely Republican seat, is up. It would be helpful if Dems picked this one up, as the Republicans only have a slim majority in the House, but this was a seat that went 3-1 for the incumbent in 2010. There was apparently a split among Republicans, so there's a Republican running a write-in campaign, but it would still be one hell of a long shot.</blockquote> rss@dailykos.com (David Nir) AnnaLittle AnnWagner AZ-Sen BevPerdue BillStouffer BobMarshall BuddyCianci CA-36 Census ChrisLee CT-05 DailyDigests DanAkaka DanInouye DianeGooch Elections EliotCutler ElizabethEsty EricGriego FL-13 FL-Sen GioCicione HI-Sen JaneCorwin JanetMills JeffFlake JoeArpaio JohnBoehner LindaLingle MarcyWinograd ME-Gov ME-Sen MI-15 MI-Sen MikeLong MO-02 MO-Gov MO-Sen MO-SoS NC-Gov NJ-06 NM-01 NY-26 PatMcCrory PeterKinder Polls PublicPolicyPolling RI-Sen RobinCarnahan RobSteele SpecialElections TimKaine ToddAkin TomLeppert TX-Sen VA-Sen VernBuchanan _950868 Mon, 28 Feb 2011 14:37:23 +0000 Congressional races 2010, final update: Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico https://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/10/19/911586/-Congressional-races-2010-final-update-Nebraska-Nevada-New-Hampshire-New-Jersey-New-Mexico Summary:  NE has 3 reps: all R.  NV has 3 reps: 2 D, 1 R.  NH has 2 reps: both D.    NJ has 13 reps: 8 D, 5 R.  NM has 3 reps: All D. Possibly vulnerable:  NE-02 (R)  NJ-03 (D)  NV-03 (D)  NH-01 (D)  NH-02 (D)  NJ-03 (D)  NJ-07 (R)  NM-01 (D)  NM-02 (D) rss@dailykos.com (plf515) Congress NE-01 NE-02 NE-03 NJ-01 NJ-02 NJ-03 NJ-04 NJ-05 NJ-06 NJ-07 NJ-08 NJ-09 NJ-10 NJ-11 NJ-12 NJ-13 NM-01 NM-02 NM-03 NV-01 NV-02 NV-03 _911586 Tue, 19 Oct 2010 14:12:36 +0000 Polling and Political Wrap, 10/18/10 https://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/10/18/911457/-Polling-and-Political-Wrap-10-18-10 A surprisingly quiet polling weekend has lasted into the week, as this is a much less data-heavy Monday than I would have anticipated. Even with the weekly "poll dump" from our buddies at the DCCC, this is a day where the poll count drops back into the 20s for the first time in quite a while. In all, we are looking at 26 new polls today, and the bulk of them (and this has been a rarity, as well) show some Democratic momentum building. We have an "endangered Dem" up by a dozen in a public poll, while another one shows private numbers with a double-digit lead. One GOP open seat might be more vulnerable than once thought, and one Dem open seat is no longer even remotely vulnerable. All this (and more!) in the Monday edition of the Wrap... <ins>THE U.S. SENATE</ins> <ul><li><a href="http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/content/poll-marco-rubio-leads-8-alex-sink-7-pam-bondi-8">Florida Senate (Suffolk Univ):</a> Marco Rubio (R) 39%, Charlie Crist (I) 31%, Kendrick Meek (D) 22%</li> <li><a href="http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/10/missouri-senate-close.html">Missouri Senate (PPP):</a> Roy Blunt (R) 46%, Robin Carnahan (D) 41%</li> <li><a href="http://www.deseretnews.com/article/700074276/Lee-leads-Granato-in-Senate-race.html">Utah Senate (Dan Jones and Assoc):</a> Mike Lee (R) 53%, Sam Granato (D) 31%</li></ul> <ins>THE ANALYSIS:</ins> Very little Senate polling (although both Fox and CNN will no doubt add to the data within the next two days). Worth noting that the Missouri Senate poll by PPP (which shows Democrat Robin Carnahan more competitive than she has been in months) was a poll conducted for Carnahan's campaign. Both the Florida and Utah numbers are not terribly different from the data that has come before. It is becoming clear that as long as the Florida Senate race is a three-way challenge, Marco Rubio is in a reasonably unassailable position. <ins>THE U.S. HOUSE</ins> <ul><li><a href="http://dccc.org/blog/entry/more_district_by_district_polls_show_democrats_well-positioned_for_nov/">Alabama-02 (G.Q.R.--D):</a> Rep. Bobby Bright (D) 51%, Martha Roby (R) 39%</li> <li><a href="http://www.talkbusiness.net/article/TALK-BUSINESS-POLL-THE-FINAL-FOUR/1027/">Arkansas-01 (Talk Business/Hendrix College):</a> Rick Crawford (R) 42%, Chad Causey (D) 34%, Others 4%</li> <li><a href="http://dccc.org/blog/entry/more_district_by_district_polls_show_democrats_well-positioned_for_nov/">Arkansas-01 (Anzalone Liszt--D):</a> Chad Causey (D) 44%, Rick Crawford (R) 42%</li> <li><a href="http://www.talkbusiness.net/article/TALK-BUSINESS-POLL-THE-FINAL-FOUR/1027/">Arkansas-02 (Talk Business/Hendrix College):</a> Tim Griffin (R) 50%, Joyce Elliott (D) 38%, Others 5%</li> <li><a href="http://www.talkbusiness.net/article/TALK-BUSINESS-POLL-THE-FINAL-FOUR/1027/">Arkansas-03 (Talk Business/Hendrix College):</a> Steve Womack (R) 59%, David Whitaker (D) 21%</li> <li><a href="http://www.talkbusiness.net/article/TALK-BUSINESS-POLL-THE-FINAL-FOUR/1027/">Arkansas-04 (Talk Business/Hendrix College):</a> Rep. Mike Ross (D) 52%, Beth Anne Rankin (R) 34%, Others 3%</li> <li><a href="http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/10/california-tran-poll-finds-vot.html">California-47 (Public Opinion Strategies--R):</a> Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D) 39%, Van Tran (R) 39%, Others 5%</li> <li><a href="http://www.boston.com/news/politics/articles/2010/10/18/survey_gives_keating_razor_thin_edge_over_perry/">Massachusetts-10 (MassINC Polling):</a> Bill Keating (D) 46%, Jeff Perry (R) 43%, Others 5%</li> <li><a href="http://www.politickernj.com/back_room/national-research-poll-shows-pallone-barely-ahead-little-44-43">New Jersey-06 (National Research--R):</a> Rep. Frank Pallone (D) 44%, Anna Little (R) 43%</li> <li><a href="http://www.syracuse.com/news/index.ssf/2010/10/dan_maffei_leads_anne_marie_bu.html">New York-25 (Siena College):</a> Rep. Dan Maffei (D) 51%, Ann Marie Buerkle (R) 39%</li> <li><a href="http://dccc.org/blog/entry/more_district_by_district_polls_show_democrats_well-positioned_for_nov/">Oregon-04 (Grove Insight--D):</a> Rep. Peter DeFazio (D) 53%, Art Robinson (R) 39%</li> <li><a href="http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/10/gop_polls_schra.php">Oregon-05 (Moore Information--R):</a> Scott Bruun (R) 44%, Rep. Kurt Schrader (D) 40%</li> <li><a href="http://articles.mcall.com/2010-10-15/news/mc-dent-callahan-towne-poll-20101015_1_justin-schall-republican-congressman-charlie-dent-dent-drives">Pennsylvania-15 (Muhlenberg College):</a> Rep. Charlie Dent (R) 49%, John Callahan (D) 32%, Others 5%</li> <li><a href="http://roanoke.edu/News_and_Events/Campus_News/2010_Roanoke_College_Poll.htm">Virginia-05 (Roanoke College):</a> Rob Hurt (R) 46%, Rep. Tom Perriello (D) 40%, Others 1%</li></ul> <ins>THE ANALYSIS:</ins> Lots of House polling on the menu today, including some races thought to be closer than they apparently are. Republicans have crowed about the opportunity to beat sophomore Rep. Dan Maffei in upstate New York, but a new Siena poll gives Maffei a double-digit edge. In the "right back at ya" department, Congressman Peter DeFazio responds to last week's GOP poll (showing Art Robinson within single digits) by releasing his own numbers showing a much wider advantage. Arkansas-01 looks a little more competitive than The Hill's poll last week indicated, even in the public poll by Talk Business. The open-seat battle on the Cape in Massachusetts finally gets numbers, and while the Dems are out in front, it is clearly quite close. <ins>THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES</ins> <ul><li><a href="http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/content/poll-marco-rubio-leads-8-alex-sink-7-pam-bondi-8">Florida Governor (Suffolk Univ):</a> Alex Sink (D) 45%, Rick Scott (R) 38%, Others 4%</li> <li><a href="http://www.wmur.com/r/25431849/detail.html">New Hampshire Governor (Univ of New Hampshire):</a> Gov. John Lynch (D) 51%, John Stephen (R) 38%</li> <li><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/18/nyregion/18poll.html?_r=1">New York Governor (New York Times):</a> Andrew Cuomo (D) 59%, Carl Paladino (R) 24%</li> <li><a href="http://www.deseretnews.com/article/700074429/Poll-shows-Corroon-ads-give-boost-to-Herbert.html">Utah Governor (Dan Jones and Assoc):</a> Gov. Gary Herbert (R) 58%, Peter Corroon (D) 33%</li> <li><a href="http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/105196189.html">Wisconsin Governor (St. Norberts College):</a> Scott Walker (R) 50%, Tom Barrett (D) 41%</li></ul> <ins>THE ANALYSIS:</ins> It is now pretty indisputable that Alex Sink is at least a slight favorite to be the next Governor of Florida, as everyone except for Rasmussen now puts Rick Scott several points behind the Democrat in the Sunshine State. Meanwhile, in the Empire State, the good news is that Andrew Cuomo now has a better two-to-one lead over the trainwreck that is Republican nominee Carl Paladino. The bad news? That there are still a quarter of the voters in New York that would entertain the idea of voting for that guy. In an interesting twist, pollster Dan Jones implies that a backlash against tough negative ads might be insulating Governor Gary Herbert in Utah. If so, that'd be just about the first time I've heard of something like that. I would be much, much more likely to attribute that widening gap to GOP voters in one of the most conservative states in the Union simply coming home. <ins>THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA</ins> Rasmussen mostly upholds the status quo today. If there is any good news for Dems, it is in the most GOP-friendly result from the quartet of polls from Rasmussen. Because if Rasmussen is really saying that Hawaii institution Dan Inouye is only up by thirteen points on Republican Cam Cavasso, one really has to wonder if their numbers on the governor's race last week were legit. HI-Sen: Sen. Dan Inouye (D) 53%, Cam Cavasso (R) 40% MA-Gov: Gov. Patrick (D) 47%, Baker (R) 42%, Cahill (I) 6% NV-Sen: Sharron Angle (R) 50%, Sen. Harry Reid (D) 47% WA-Sen: Sen. Patty Murray (D) 49%, Dino Rossi (R) 46% rss@dailykos.com (Steve Singiser) 2010 AL-02 AR-01 AR-02 AR-03 AR-04 CA-47 FL-Gov FL-Sen HI-Sen MA-10 MA-Gov MO-Sen NH-Gov NJ-06 NV-Sen NY-25 NY-Gov OR-04 OR-05 PA-15 Polls UT-Gov UT-Sen VA-05 WA-Sen WI-Gov _911457 Tue, 19 Oct 2010 02:46:04 +0000 Polling and Political Wrap, 10/6/10 https://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/10/6/908275/-Polling-and-Political-Wrap-10-6-10 The format change launched on the Wrap at the beginning of the week seems to have arrived just in time. For the first time in the 2010 cycle, the Wrap eclipses the half-century mark. We finish the night with a total of 51 polls released today, and they run the gamut. A huge RV/LV gap in CNN's series of polls means that the outcomes depend a little bit on your perspective on who is "a likely voter." Penn Schoen Berland unveils their first wave of House polls, and they are pretty damned ugly for the Democrats. Other polls, meanwhile, look a little bit better. Dem internals in a couple of statewide races bring some cause for hope, while Delaware is looking more and more like a win-win for the blue team. All that (and more!) in the super-sized Wednesday edition of the Wrap... <ins>THE U.S. SENATE</ins> <ul><li><a href="http://www.csindy.com/IndyBlog/archives/2010/10/06/bennet-overtakes-buck-poll-shows">Colorado Senate (Harstad Research--D):</a> Sen. Michael Bennet (D) 44%, Ken Buck (R) 41%, Others 3%</li> <li><a href="http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,2024012,00.html">Connecticut Senate (CNN/Time):</a> Richard Blumenthal (D) 54%, Linda McMahon (R) 41%</li> <li><a href="http://www.politico.com/static/PPM170_101005_blumenthal.html">Connecticut Senate (G.Q.R.--D):</a> Richard Blumenthal (D) 53%, Linda McMahon (R) 38%</li> <li><a href="http://www.udel.edu/ocm/newsreleases/2011/oct/cpcpoll.html">Delaware Senate (Univ of Delaware):</a> Chris Coons (D) 61%, Christine O'Donnell (R) 37%</li> <li><a href="http://publicmind.fdu.edu/desenate/">Delaware Senate (Fairleigh Dickinson Univ):</a> Chris Coons (D) 53%, Christine O'Donnell (R) 36%</li> <li><a href="http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,2024012,00.html">Missouri Senate (CNN/Time):</a> Roy Blunt (R) 53%, Robin Carnahan (D) 40%</li> <li><a href="http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,2024012,00.html">Nevada Senate (CNN/Time):</a> Sharron Angle (R) 42%, Sen. Harry Reid (D) 40%, Scott Ashjian (Tea) 7%</li> <li><a href="http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/10/dems-ahead-for-both-ny-senate-seats.html">New York Senate "A" (PPP):</a> Sen. Chuck Schumer (D) 59%, Jay Townsend (R) 37%</li> <li><a href="http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,2024012,00.html">New York Senate "A" (CNN/Time):</a> Sen. Chuck Schumer (D) 57%, Jay Townsend (R) 41%</li> <li><a href="http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/10/dems-ahead-for-both-ny-senate-seats.html">New York Senate "B" (PPP):</a> Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 50%, Joe DioGuardi (R) 40%</li> <li><a href="http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,2024012,00.html">New York Senate "B" (CNN/Time):</a> Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 54%, Joe DioGuardi (R) 41%</li> <li><a href="http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1284.xml?ReleaseID=1512&What=&strArea=;&strTime=0">Ohio Senate (Quinnipiac):</a> Rob Portman (R) 55%, Lee Fisher (D) 36%</li></ul> <ins>THE ANALYSIS:</ins> The CNN/Time polls out today revealed an enormous RV/LV gap in their Nevada and New York polling. Among registered voters, Harry Reid actually enjoys a double-digit lead over Angle (43-32). It looks like last week's "ooh...these races are close" boomlets in Connecticut and New York were unwarranted, as two more polls confirm double-digit Democratic leads in those northeastern states. And...finally...it is clear that the media in America have gone crazy. The two Senate candidates who arguably got the most ink this year: Alvin Greene (SC) and Christine O'Donnell (DE). As today's polls in Delaware make clear, neither candidate is a lock to make it to even 40% of the vote. <ins>THE U.S. HOUSE</ins> <ul><li><a href="http://thehill.com/house-polls/the-hill-anga-poll-week-1/122881-all-the-data-numbers-the-stories-are-based-on">Arizona-01 (Penn Schoen Berland):</a> Paul Gosar (R) 46%, Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D) 39%</li> <li><a href="http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/afternoon-fix/afternoon-fix-republican-polls.html">Arizona-01 (NRCC Internal--R):</a> Paul Gosar (R) 45%, Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D) 42%</li> <li><a href="http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/afternoon-fix/afternoon-fix-republican-polls.html">Arizona-05 (NRCC Internal--R):</a> David Schwiekert (R) 45%, Rep. Harry Mitchell (D) 44%</li> <li><a href="http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/afternoon-fix/afternoon-fix-republican-polls.html">Colorado-03 (NRCC Internal--R):</a> Rep. John Salazar (D) 45%, Scott Tipton (R) 45%</li> <li><a href="http://thehill.com/house-polls/the-hill-anga-poll-week-1/122881-all-the-data-numbers-the-stories-are-based-on">Colorado-04 (Penn Schoen Berland):</a> Cory Gardner (R) 44%, Rep. Betsy Markey (D) 41%</li> <li><a href="http://blogs.courant.com/capitol_watch/2010/10/caligiuri-leads-murphy-accordi.html">Connecticut-05 (Merriman River--R)</a> Sam Caligiuri (R) 50%, Rep. Chris Murphy (D) 44%</li> <li><a href="http://dccc.org/blog/entry/house_democrats_more_district_by_district_polls1/">Connecticut-05 (Gotham Research--D)</a> Rep. Chris Murphy (D) 50%, Sam Caligiuri (R) 37%</li> <li><a href="http://www.udel.edu/ocm/newsreleases/2011/oct/cpcpoll.html">Delaware-AL (Univ of Delaware):</a> John Carney (D) 60%, Glen Urquhart (R) 40%</li> <li><a href="http://thehill.com/house-polls/the-hill-anga-poll-week-1/122881-all-the-data-numbers-the-stories-are-based-on">Illinois-11 (Penn Schoen Berland):</a> Adam Kinzinger (R) 49%, Rep. Debbie Halvorson (D) 31%</li> <li><a href="http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/10/hultgren-poll-shows-him-leadin.html">Illinois-14 (Tarrance Group--R):</a> Randy Hultgren (R) 44%, Rep. Bill Foster (D) 38%</li> <li><a href="https://twitter.com/polltrack/status/26578213604">Illinois-17 (Public Opinion Strategies--R):</a> Rep. Phil Hare (D) 38%, Bobby Schilling (R) 37%</li> <li><a href="http://www.wsbt.com/news/local/WSBT-poll-shows-Donnelly-leads-Walorski-in-2nd-District-Congressional-race-104375928.html">Indiana-02 (EPIC-MRA):</a> Rep. Joe Donnelly (D) 48%, Jackie Walorski (R) 39%, Mike Vogel (L) 6%</li> <li><a href="http://thehill.com/house-polls/the-hill-anga-poll-week-1/122881-all-the-data-numbers-the-stories-are-based-on">Maryland-01 (Penn Schoen Berland):</a> Andy Harris (R) 43%, Rep. Frank Kratovil (D) 40%</li> <li><a href="http://thehill.com/house-polls/the-hill-anga-poll-week-1/122881-all-the-data-numbers-the-stories-are-based-on">Michigan-07 (Penn Schoen Berland):</a> Rep. Mark Schauer (D) 41%, Tim Walberg (R) 41%</li> <li><a href="http://www.markschauer.com/node/848">Michigan-07 (Myers Research--D):</a> Rep. Mark Schauer (D) 44%, Tim Walberg (R) 40%, Others 7%</li> <li><a href="http://thehill.com/house-polls/the-hill-anga-poll-week-1/122881-all-the-data-numbers-the-stories-are-based-on">Nevada-03 (Penn Schoen Berland):</a> Joe Heck (R) 47%, Rep. Dina Titus (D) 44%</li> <li><a href="http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2010/10/us_rep_frank_pallone_ahead_of.html">New Jersey-06 (Monmouth Univ):</a> Rep. Frank Pallone (D) 53%, Anna Little (R) 41%</li> <li><a href="http://thehill.com/house-polls/the-hill-anga-poll-week-1/122881-all-the-data-numbers-the-stories-are-based-on">New Mexico-02 (Penn Schoen Berland):</a> Steve Pearce (R) 46%, Rep. Harry Teague (D) 42%</li> <li><a href="http://www.lincolntribune.com/modules/news/article.php?storyid=20982">North Carolina-08 (SurveyUSA):</a> Rep. Larry Kissell (D) 46%, Harold Johnson (R) 45%</li> <li><a href="http://thehill.com/house-polls/the-hill-anga-poll-week-1/122881-all-the-data-numbers-the-stories-are-based-on">Ohio-15 (Penn Schoen Berland):</a> Steve Stivers (R) 47%, Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy (D) 38%</li> <li><a href="http://thehill.com/house-polls/the-hill-anga-poll-week-1/122881-all-the-data-numbers-the-stories-are-based-on">Ohio-16 (Penn Schoen Berland):</a> Jim Renacci (R) 42%, Rep. John Boccieri (D) 39%</li> <li><a href="http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/afternoon-fix/afternoon-fix-republican-polls.html">Oregon-05 (NRCC Internal--R):</a> Scott Bruun (R) 45%, Rep. Kurt Schrader (D) 44%</li> <li><a href="http://thehill.com/house-polls/the-hill-anga-poll-week-1/122881-all-the-data-numbers-the-stories-are-based-on">Pennsylvania-03 (Penn Schoen Berland):</a> Mike Kelly (R) 49%, Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper (D) 36%</li> <li><a href="http://thehill.com/house-polls/the-hill-anga-poll-week-1/122881-all-the-data-numbers-the-stories-are-based-on">Virginia-02 (Penn Schoen Berland):</a> Scott Rigell (R) 42%, Rep. Glenn Nye (D) 36%</li> <li><a href="http://thehill.com/house-polls/the-hill-anga-poll-week-1/122881-all-the-data-numbers-the-stories-are-based-on">Virginia-05 (Penn Schoen Berland):</a> Rob Hurt (R) 45%, Rep. Tom Perriello (D) 44%</li></ul> <ins>THE ANALYSIS:</ins> The Penn Schoen Berland polls (for The Hill) have already been covered pretty extensively <a href="http://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/10/2/907146/-The-turnout-and-intensity-gap-problem">by Markos</a> earlier today. Needless to say, the intensity gap is apparent within those numbers, and some closing of that gap could easily turn narrow disadvantages into narrow leads. The quartet of NRCC internals are a week old, but I happened upon them when searching for another piece of data. Michigan's Mark Schauer appears to be making up ground: not only is he the only one of the twelve Hill Democrats not trailing, but he released his own internal poll showing a nice-sized lead. Dems have modest leads in two races (IN-02 and NJ-06) that have seen barely any polling during this cycle. And, with the wildly disparate internal polls out of Connecticut (a 19-point spread!), all we can say is...someone's really, really wrong. <ins>THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES</ins> <ul><li><a href="http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/10/malloy-up-10.html">Connecticut Governor (PPP):</a> Dan Malloy (D) 50%, Tom Foley (R) 40%</li> <li><a href="http://blog.ctnews.com/election2010/2010/10/05/connecticuts-answer-to-matt-drudge-commissions-his-own-polls/">Connecticut Governor (Merriman River Group--R):</a> Dan Malloy (D) 48%, Tom Foley (R) 45%</li> <li><a href="http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,2024012,00.html">Connecticut Governor (CNN/Time):</a> Dan Malloy (D) 50%, Tom Foley (R) 42%</li> <li><a href="http://www.tcpalm.com/news/2010/oct/06/Sink-Scott-neck-and-neck-to-be-next-governor/">Florida Governor (Zogby):</a> Alex Sink (D) 41%, Rick Scott (R) 39%</li> <li><a href="http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,2024012,00.html">Nevada Governor (CNN/Time):</a> Brian Sandoval (R) 56%, Rory Reid (D) 33%</li> <li><a href="http://newmexicoindependent.com/64658/internal-poll-puts-denish-in-striking-distance">New Mexico Governor (G.Q.R.--D):</a> Susana Martinez (R) 49%, Diane Denish (D) 46%</li> <li><a href="http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,2024012,00.html">New York Governor (CNN/Time):</a> Andrew Cuomo (D) 55%, Carl Paladino (R) 41%</li> <li><a href="http://www.tedstrickland.com/campaign_news/entry/strickland_leads_kasich_by_4_points/">Ohio Governor (Feldman Group--D):</a> Gov. Ted Strickland (D) 46%, John Kasich (R) 42%</li> <li><a href="http://www.indigojournal.com/2010/10/06/new-poll-sc-governors-race-tightening/">South Carolina Governor (Hamilton Campaigns--D):</a> Nikki Haley (R) 49%, Vincent Sheheen (D) 44%</li> <li><a href="http://www.texastribune.org/texas-politics/2010-texas-governors-race/texas-lyceum-poll-puts-perry-up-by-5/">Texas Governor (Texas Lyceum):</a> Gov. Rick Perry (R) 48%, Bill White (D) 43%, Others 6%</li></ul> <ins>THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA</ins> With the sheer volume of polling today, it might be somewhat surprising that only four of those polls emanate from the House of Ras. Two of these polls serve to perpetuate rapidly developing memes: that Joe Manchin is in a ton of trouble in West Virginia, and that Richard Blumenthal is NOT in a ton of trouble in Connecticut. CT-Sen: Richard Blumenthal (D) 54%, Linda McMahon (R) 43% IL-Gov: Bill Brady (R) 46%, Gov. Pat Quinn (D) 38% RI-Gov: Lincoln Chafee (I) 33%, Frank Caprio (D) 30%, John Robataille (R) 22% WV-Sen: John Raese (R) 50%, Joe Manchin (D) 44% rss@dailykos.com (Steve Singiser) 2010 AZ-01 AZ-05 CO-03 CO-04 CO-Sen CT-05 CT-Gov CT-Sen DE-AL DE-Sen FL-Gov IL-11 IL-14 IL-17 IL-Gov IN-02 MD-01 MI-07 MO-Sen NC-08 NJ-06 NM-02 NM-Gov NV-03 NV-Gov NV-Sen NY-Gov NY-Sen OH-15 OH-16 OH-Gov OH-Sen OR-05 PA-03 Polls RI-Gov SC-Gov TX-Gov VA-02 VA-05 WV-Sen _908275 Thu, 07 Oct 2010 02:46:04 +0000 Stupid Goes Viral: Climate Zombies Infect ME, Assault NJ https://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/10/3/907095/-Stupid-Goes-Viral-Climate-Zombies-Infect-ME-Assault-NJ <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/26464539@N04/4959256762/" title="securedownload[1] by RL_Miller, on Flickr"><img width="201" alt="securedownload[1]" hspace="3" align="right" src="http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4152/4959256762_4464bbdd54_m.jpg" height="240" /></a> <blockquote> They prowl the halls of Congress, moaning for caaasshh. Their stupid has gone viral. And if they win, humanity loses. </blockquote> I'm tracking Climate Zombies: every Republican candidate for House, Senate, and Governor who doubts, denies, or derides the science of climate change.  Maine represents the clash between Old (<a href="http://wonkroom.thinkprogress.org/2010/06/28/reid-climate-peacocks/">climate peacocks</a> who flashily proclaim their desire to do something about climate without actually doing anything) and New (climate zombies who openly deride science and President Obama).  Meanwhile, the Koch brothers' Americans for Prosperity group sniffs around otherwise blue New Jersey, finds that Governor Chris Christie is vulnerable, and readies its assault. rss@dailykos.com (RLMiller) Climate Change ClimateChange climatezombies eKos Global Warming GlobalWarming ME-01 ME-02 ME-Gov ME-Sen NJ-01 NJ-02 NJ-03 NJ-04 NJ-05 NJ-06 NJ-07 NJ-08 NJ-09 NJ-10 NJ-11 NJ-12 NJ-13 NJ-Gov Rescued _907095 Sun, 03 Oct 2010 15:52:31 +0000 Polling and Political Wrap, 8/24/10 https://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/8/24/895904/-Polling-and-Political-Wrap-8-24-10 On a day when ballots are being tabulated in four states, there is also a bit of political news percolating in the other 46 states. And that, friends, is why there is a Wrap, even on a Primary Night... <ins>THE U.S. SENATE</ins> FL-Sen: Rubio returns to lead in three-way battle, says PPP On a day when Kendrick Meek appears well on his way to achieving the Democratic nomination for the Senate in Florida, his renewed presence might have the side effect of propelling Marco Rubio back into the lead. At least that's the thesis of the crew over at PPP, whose <a href="http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/08/rubio-back-on-top.html">new poll out of Florida</a> puts Republican Marco Rubio back out front with 40% of the vote. Independent Charlie Crist sits at 32%, with Meek running third at 17%. One shift since the last time PPP came to town: Meek now leads among Democrats. In the previous PPP survey in the Sunshine State, Crist actually lead among Dems, and by a reasonably surprising spread (nine points). WA-Sen: Rossi's primary challenger endorses him (no, not that one) Republican Dino Rossi might have a ways to go to mend fences with his main opposition in the GOP primary last week, as <a href="http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/8/20/894934/-WA-Sen:-Tea-Partier-Didier-holds-out-on-Rossi-endorsement">Clint Didier</a> made clear late last week that he cannot endorse Rossi (yet). Another also-ran in the GOP field, on the other hand, is willing to make amends: Rossi got the nod from <a href="http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/8/20/894934/-WA-Sen:-Tea-Partier-Didier-holds-out-on-Rossi-endorsement">Paul Akers</a>, who got around 2.5% of the vote last week. Feel the reconciliation! <ins>THE U.S. HOUSE</ins> CA-52: The debate is on, and the hunger strike is off The standoff over debates in the greater San Diego area is over, after quite <a href="http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0810/41380.html">the confrontation</a> last weekend. For those who don't remember the story from last week's Wrap, Democrat Ray Lutz had embarked earlier in the month on a hunger strike to protest the unwillingness of Republican incumbent Duncan Hunter to participate in a debate. He was joined by the Libertarian candidate in the field, Mike Benoit, who joined Lutz in the hunger strike. They confronted Hunter at a local event Friday, accompanied by local media. Hunter agreed to a single debate on October 15th, and claimed he had planned to do that all along, anyway. With a debate in hand, Lutz and Benoit ended their hunger strike. CO-03: GOP internal poll claims another Dem incumbent trailing GOP pollsters Magellan Strategies have been quiet for a little while, but they rear their heads again, and what they found is a tad startling. Their internal poll for Republican Scott Tipton claims that the Republican has moved into <a href="http://www.gjsentinel.com/news/articles/tipton_says_hes_leading_poll_o/">modest lead</a> over incumbent Democrat John Salazar (49-43). Magellan knows the terrain pretty well, having been Ken Buck's pollster during the GOP Senate primary. LA-02: Richmond gets critical endorsement in advance of primary With Louisiana's primary kicking off this Saturday, state legislator Cedric Richmond got arguably the most important endorsement a Democrat can receive in the New Orleans-based 2nd district. His website <a href="http://www.cedricrichmond.com/news/new-orleans-mayor-mitch-landrieu-endorses-richmond-congress">announced</a> that New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu was endorsing Richmond, who is locked in a battle with fellow state legislator Juan LaFonta. The winner will battle Republican Rep. Anh Cao in November. MI-01/MI-07: GOP gets big break in two competitive November battles It could potentially be overturned by the courts, but for the moment, the Tea Party will not be on the ballot in two critical districts for November. The State Board of Canvassers deadlocked 2-to-2 on whether or not to permit Tea Party candidates Lonnie Lee Snyder (MI-01) and Danny Davis (MI-07) can be on the November ballot. Their candidacy were under challenge from the state GOP, who argued that their petition efforts were fraudulent. The GOP also argued that the Democrats had excessive involvement in the Tea Party's efforts. NJ-06: Is longtime Dem endangered? GOP internal poll says he is If this internal poll is to be believed (and the standard caveats, of course, apply), then the climate for Dems in this cycle might be even worse than has been often projected. A new internal poll, by National Research, for longshot Republican candidate Anna Little claims that she might not be <a href="http://www.politickernj.com/back_room/little-campaign-poll-shows-gop-challenger-within-striking-distance">a longshot</a>, after all. The poll shows longtime Democratic incumbent Frank Pallone leading Little by just six points (40-34). This would be a stunning result, if true, in a district where Barack Obama won by 60-38 and where Pallone has won every election since 1992 with at least 57% of the vote. NM-01: Previewing next weeks Albuquerque Journal numbers An interesting piece out today from Joe Monahan looks ahead to next week's release of the Albuquerque Journal poll. With <a href="http://joemonahansnewmexico.blogspot.com/2010/08/new-dem-spin-di-trails-but-susana-is.html">regard to</a> the Albuquerque-based 1st district, Monahan appears privy to internal polling. And what he suspects is that "it is more likely that the race will show a several point gap and probably in [Rep. Martin] Heinrich's favor." This would stand in pretty stark contrast to last month's SurveyUSA poll in the race, which showed Jon Barela actually ahead of the freshman Democrat by six points. OR-05: GOP internal shows...well, you get the picture Take three on today's theme of hugely pessimistic polling for Democrats, courtesy of Republican pollsters. A new internal poll for GOP state legislator Scott Bruun claims that he has moved into a <a href="http://blog.oregonlive.com/mapesonpolitics/2010/08/bruun_claims_poll_shows_him_in.html">slight lead</a> over freshman Democrat Kurt Schrader. The poll, from local GOP pollsters Moore Information, gives Bruun 41% of the vote, with Schrader sitting at 38%. Schrader easily won here in 2008 (54-38), against the deeply flawed GOP nominee, Mike Erickson. The district is somewhat swingy, though, as it was carried by both Barack Obama in 2008 and George W. Bush in 2004. <ins>THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES</ins> HI-Gov: Look! It's a poll! With a Democrat leading! One place where Democrats still hold pole position in the polls is Hawaii, where a new poll out today from <a href="http://www.staradvertiser.com/news/20100824_Aiona_trails_Democratic_contenders.html">Ward Research</a> says that either Democratic contender (former Congressman Neal Abercrombie or former Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann) would own a double-digit lead over the near-certain GOP standard bearer, Lt. Governor Duke Aiona. Hannemann, though trailing in the Democratic primary, actually does slightly better against Aiona (54-37) than does Abercrombie (53-41). MD-Gov: New poll says Ehrlich a lock for GOP nod, trails in general If a new poll from local pollsters Opinion Works is on the mark, Sarah Palin's endorsement of businessman Brian Murphy has rallied the political neophyte to a <a href="http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/news/local/politics/2010/08/omalley_edges_ehrlich_in_new_p.html">tiny little</a> 62-point deficit (75-13) against former GOP Governor Robert Ehrlich. Ehrlich does not fare quite as well in a prospective general election contest, however, as he trails incumbent Democratic Governor Martin O'Malley by six points (47-41). Point of full disclosure: while the pollster (Opinion Works) is apparently a nonpartisan firm, the sponsoring entity for the poll (a nonprofit media outlet called Center Maryland) does have some past ties to Governor O'Malley. NM-Gov: More Monahan--are the Dems trailing in this race, as well? Earlier in the Wrap, I alluded to a piece from New Mexico blogger Joe Monahan, where he said internal polling in the New Mexico 1st hinted that Democrat Martin Heinrich likely has a slight edge there. The story, however, appears to be a <a href="http://joemonahansnewmexico.blogspot.com/2010/08/new-dem-spin-di-trails-but-susana-is.html">bit different</a> in the gubernatorial election, where Monahan writes: <blockquote> Democrats are bracing for a weekend ABQ Journal poll that many of them think will show Republican Susana Martinez leading Diane Denish by three to six points. But the late August poll being done this week and to be published Sunday is only the beginning. And now there is a new Democratic narrative popping up on the radar screens of La Politica--that Martinez and the R's will get their peak performance this week and that we are headed for a photo finish. </blockquote> It is true that not too many gloves have been laid on Martinez thus far, although that <a href="http://www.nmfbihop.com/diary/4200/richardson-defends-education-record-blasts-martinez">began to change</a> last week, when incumbent Democratic Governor Bill Richardson blasted Martinez on the issue of education. This led to an <a href="http://www.nmfbihop.com/diary/4207/martinez-challenges-richardson-to-debate-but-has-yet-to-finalize-debates-with-her-actual-opponent">odd reaction</a> from Martinez, who challenged Richardson to a debate. The catch: Martinez hasn't locked down debate plans with the person she is actually running against: state Lt. Governor Diane Denish. NY-Gov: Paladino to debate with...a chicken? While one debate standoff was peaceably resolved in Southern California, another one rages unabated in the Empire State, and it might start to get ridiculous sooner rather than later. Underdog Carl Paladino had challenged Rick Lazio to a debate in Syracuse on August 30th, even threatening that he would debate a man in a chicken costume (which has been shadowing Lazio) if Lazio was a no-show. With that kind of gauntlet tossed down, Lazio <a href="http://www.observer.com/2010/politics/lazio-and-paladino-will-debate-separately">agreed</a> to an appearance on August 30th. At a tea party forum. In Manhattan. For what it's worth, my money is on the dude in the chicken costume. WY-Gov: Indie candidate seeks slot of November ballot A retired surgeon and rancher has submitted petitions to place his Independent candidacy on the November ballot for Governor of Wyoming. His name is <a href="http://cbs4denver.com/wireapnewswy/Retired.Cheyenne.surgeon.2.1876038.html">Taylor Haynes</a>, and his candidacy is expected to go after GOP nominee Matt Mead from the right, as he promises to be "the most conservative candidate" in the race. If successful, Haynes will be the first candidate to appear on the gubernatorial ballot in Wyoming as a nonpartisan candidate <a href="http://www.ballot-access.org/2010/08/24/wyoming-independent-gubernatorial-candidate-is-first-in-52-years/">since 1958</a>. <ins>THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA</ins> The House of Ras dropped three polls today. Democrats will probably howl the most at the one out of Missouri, but the big story here is the relatively small changes in Ras' numbers from session to session (although they do have Illinois' Democratic Governor, Pat Quinn, moving back within single digits). IL-Gov: Bill Brady (R) 46%, Gov. Pat Quinn (D) 37% MO-Sen: Roy Blunt (R) 51%, Robin Carnahan (D) 40% OR-Gov: Chris Dudley (R) 45%, John Kitzhaber (D) 44% rss@dailykos.com (Steve Singiser) 2010 CA-52 CO-03 FL-Sen HI-Gov IL-Gov LA-02 MD-Gov MI-01 MI-07 MO-Sen NJ-06 NM-01 NM-Gov NY-Gov OR-05 OR-Gov Polls WA-Sen WY-Gov _895904 Wed, 25 Aug 2010 03:00:05 +0000 Congressional races 2010, round 3: Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico https://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/7/13/883771/-Congressional-races-2010-round-3-Nebraska-Nevada-New-Hampshire-New-Jersey-New-Mexico Summary:  NE has 3 reps: all R.  Primary done.  NV has 3 reps: 2 D, 1 R.  Primary done.  NH has 2 reps: both D.  Primary Sept 14  NJ has 13 reps: 8 D, 5 R. Primary done.  NM has 3 reps: All D. Primary done. Possibly vulnerable:  NE-02 (R)  NJ-03 (D)  NV-03 (D)  NH-01 (D)  NH-02 (D)  NJ-03 (D)  NJ-07 (R)  NM-01 (D)  NM-02 (D) rss@dailykos.com (plf515) Congress NE-01 NE-02 NE-03 NJ-01 NJ-02 NJ-03 NJ-04 NJ-05 NJ-06 NJ-07 NJ-08 NJ-09 NJ-10 NJ-11 NJ-12 NJ-13 NM-01 NM-02 NM-03 NV-01 NV-02 NV-03 _883771 Tue, 13 Jul 2010 19:10:51 +0000 Polling and political wrap-up, 6/12/10 https://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/6/12/875250/-Polling-and-political-wrap-up-6-12-10 As has become customary here at DK, it is time to close out another week in this fascinating electoral cycle with the weekend edition of ye olde Wrap. This was one of the busier weeks in memory, with a few billion primary elections (those needing a recap of that evening's festivities can click <a href="http://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/6/9/874258/-Primary-Night:-The-Post-Mortem">here</a>), along with a number of interesting data points emanating from a bevy of pollsters all around the nation. And, as it turns out, the week ended as it began, with a flurry of activity. Observe Rasmussen in full narrative setting mode: according to the House of Ras, the Tea Party movement is so bloody popular that one of their number will fairly easily get elected governor of blue-state Maine. So sayeth the Ras. A prominent sports celebrity is getting into the endorsement biz, and an endangered Democratic Congressman might have made himself more endangered by poking a stick at a potential spoiler candidate. All that, and more, on the weekend edition of the Wrap... <ins>THE U.S. SENATE</ins> NV-Sen: Lowden campaign staffer wants Ashjian off ballot Perhaps this dude is just a man dedicated to fair elections. That, or someone might want to explain to Sue Lowden's political director, Dan Burdish, that his candidate did not earn the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate. Burdish <a href="http://www.lvrj.com/blogs/politics/Former_Lowden_adviser_has_Tea_Party_gripe_election_official_says_complaint_wont_stand.html">filed a complaint</a> with Nevada Secretary of State Ross Miller, claiming that Tea Party candidate Scott Ashjian's party does not belong on the Fall ballot. Burdish's complaint immediately got the smackdown from one of Miller's deputies, who pointed out that Burdish had mistakenly cited the signature requirement for full party inclusion on the ballot, rather than inclusion in a single race. As of now, Ashjian remains on the November ballot, which will include incumbent Democrat Harry Reid and newly-minted Republican nominee Sharron Angle. OR-Sen: Wyden a darkhorse race? SUSA says so Democrats could be in big trouble in nominally favorable terrain, if you put stock in the latest <a href="http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=8138c859-65c9-4575-8e5a-77dda112e9bf">SurveyUSA</a> poll. The SUSA survey has incumbent Democrat Ron Wyden (who has routinely been elected by wide margins) only leading law professor Jim Huffman by just 13 points (51-38). SUSA is clearly forecasting a major enthusiasm gap in November: the sample was only 18% liberal and 34% conservative. For a point of reference: the 2008 exit poll sample was 24% liberal and 33% conservative, and 2004 showed even more ideological parity (27% liberal, 34% conservative). SC-Sen: Explaining the Greene-out in South Carolina This isn't really breaking political or polling news, but a couple of solid analytical reads definitely deserve to make the cut, especially when they try to explain how the stealth candidate (unemployed veteran Alvin Greene) became the Democratic nominee in South Carolina. On the heels of the amazing claim by gubernatorial candidate <a href="http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/06/10/quote_of_the_day.html">Robert Ford</a> that Greene's last name (with an "e" at the end) tipped off African-Americans to vote for one of their own, Jeffmd (who is an awesome add to an already top notch staff at the Swing State Project) actually goes <a href="http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/7075/gadsbys-revenge-alvin-greene-and-south-carolina">inside the numbers</a> and tests Ford's thesis. Meanwhile, <a href="http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/06/greene-situation.html">Tom Jensen</a> has a simple explanation for the event: neither candidate were known to the voters, so somebody had to win. Meanwhile, the Rawl campaign is asking for <a href="http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=283130E2-18FE-70B2-A84F51D3D0E7EBB8">an examination</a> of what appears to be a curious disconnect between how the candidate performances in absentee balloting and live balloting. Rawl, it appears, ran the tables in many counties in the absentee balloting, only to get thumped on the walk-up vote. <ins>THE U.S. HOUSE</ins> AL-02: Frontrunner in GOP runoff might get the teabagger treatment The Tea Party Express has rolled into southeastern Alabama, and they have put a target on the establishment choice in the July 13th runoff. The group <a href="http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/06/roby-tea-party.html">has endorsed</a> teabagger ally and businessman Rick Barber over Montgomery city council member Martha Roby. Barber ran a distant second to Roby, who just avoided making it to 50% during the June 1st primary. NJ-06: Looks like primary day isn't quite over, after all The June 8th primary elections will continue onward into their second week, it would appear. That is because the result in one House primary in the Garden State is still <a href="http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/06/new-jerseys-still-unresolved-p.html">too close to call</a> with all precincts reporting. Well funded GOP official Diane Gooch finds herself trailing by just 78 votes to conservative local mayor Anna Little. The winner takes on longtime Democratic Rep. Frank Pallone in a race that would likely be an uphill battle for either of them. NC-08: Could Kissell's own tactics backfire in Indie bid? From where the Wrap sits, this could be criminal stupidity on the part of freshman Democrat Larry Kissell. Late in the week, North Carolina Families First (powered by the SEIU) filed petitions to put former Kissell staffer Wendell Fant as an Independent candidate in the 8th district. The SEIU, and many progressives, were ticked off at the incumbent Democrat for his lack of support for the health care bill. According to Fant, however, he is genuinely undecided about whether to run. Kissell might be helping him along, however, by <a href="http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2010/06/12/1495034/fant-undecided-on-house-8th-district.html">filing</a> an ethics complaint against Fant for doing personal business on his work computer. The Charlotte Observer reports that Fant was "hurt by the complaint and questions the timing of it." <ins>THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES</ins> NY-Gov: Will African-American NYC Councilman run as Indie? Here is a potentially <a href="http://www.ballot-access.org/2010/06/11/new-york-city-councilmember-says-he-will-run-for-governor-on-ticket-of-a-new-party/">interesting twist</a> to the New York gubernatorial election. NYC councilman Charles Barron, an African-American Democrat, is planning to create his own third party in order to run for Governor. Barron is apparently ticked off at the Democratic Party for fielding a statewide slate that did not include any candidates of color. Barron's candidacy is not a given: he will have to file petitions with 15,000 signatures in order to gain access to the ballot. OR-Gov: Former Governor the underdog in November? SUSA says yes More shocking data from the latest SurveyUSA poll out of the state of Oregon. If Ron Wyden being up by just 13%, and only barely over the 50% threshold, surprised you, then how does Democratic former Governor John Kitzhaber being <a href="http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=8138c859-65c9-4575-8e5a-77dda112e9bf">down seven</a> grab you? In the "holy shit" poll of the week, SUSA has former NBA baller Chris Dudley (R) leading Kitzhaber by a 47-40 margin. There are some numbers here that will raise one eyebrow, if not both: Dudley leading by a point in the Portland metro area seems to be the biggest headscratcher. SC-Gov: Bauer endorses Barrett in gubernatorial runoff Hard to know if a guy who finished a fairly distant fourth place can make an impactful endorsement, but Republican Lt. Governor Andre Bauer has <a href="http://thestatecom.typepad.com/ygatoday/2010/06/bauer-throws-support-to-barrett.html">cast his lot</a>, nevertheless. Bauer endorsed runner-up Gresham Barrett, taking a sideways slap at frontrunner Nikki Haley by saying that Barrett was the only candidate he could "trust". Haley led round one of the balloting 49-22 on Tuesday. TN-Gov: Haslam picks up a Pearl of an endorsement in Tennessee Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam has about two months to convince Volunteer State voters that he deserves the GOP nod for Governor, and he picked up one of the best-known Volunteers as a celebrity endorser: UT mens basketball coach <a href="http://www.knoxnews.com/news/2010/jun/12/bruce-pearl-endorses-haslam-for-governor/">Bruce Pearl</a>. Pearl endorsed Haslam, praising his work ethic and integrity, at a campaign stop yesterday. Haslam is challenged by Lt. Governor Ron Ramsey and Congressman Zach Wamp (Best. Campaign. Name. Ever) for the Republican nod. Democrats coalesced around businessman Mike McWherter. <ins>THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA</ins> Sure, skeptics, go ahead. Scoff at the notion that GOP nominee Paul LePage, who won the Republican primary in quite an upset, is a high single-digit favorite for the general. In other Ras-tastic news, Bob Ehrlich is suddenly on the move in Maryland and a Republican is actually losing somewhere... CA-Sen: Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) 48%, Carly Fiorina (R) 43% MD-Gov: Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) 45%, Bob Ehrlich (R) 45% ME-Gov: Paul LePage (R) 43%, Libby Mitchell (D) 36%, Eliot Cutler (I) 7% NV-Gov: Brian Sandoval (R) 54%, Rory Reid (D) 31% rss@dailykos.com (Steve Singiser) 2010 AL-02 CA-Sen MD-Gov ME-Gov NC-08 NJ-06 NV-Gov NV-Sen NY-Gov OR-Gov OR-Sen Polls SC-Gov SC-Sen TN-Gov _875250 Sun, 13 Jun 2010 02:15:22 +0000 End the Insurance Monopolies: Repeal McCarran-Ferguson https://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/2/19/838583/-End-the-Insurance-Monopolies-Repeal-McCarran-Ferguson On Wednesday I headed over to Robert Wood Johnson University Hospital in New Brunswick to take part in a discussion with doctors, hospital administrators, and consumer groups about repealing the McCarran-Ferguson Act – a law giving health insurers anti-trust exemptions.   rss@dailykos.com (Congressman Frank Pallone) FrankPallone Healthcare Reform HealthCareReform NewBrunswick NJ-06 Recommended RobertWoodJohnson _838583 Fri, 19 Feb 2010 14:36:55 +0000