Today is Martin Luther King, Jr. Day. It’s a good time to reflect on civil rights in America and our progress towards that dream of Dr. King where individuals are judged not “by the color of their skin but, by the content of their character”.
For many of us, President Obama is a partial fulfillment of Dr. King’s dream. We saw the incredible leap that America made in electing her first African-American President, Barack Obama. Then we watched in despair as the ugly head of racism in America rears its head threatening to undermine his presidency. Obama’s America is far from perfect; but it’s the farthest we‘ve come on the road to realizing Dr. King’s dream. There are still many hurdles in the way to fully realizing that dream.
One of the biggest hurdles in the way are Republicans and the conservative right. The Republicans have exploited racial tensions and divisions in America for decades through things like the Southern Strategy. Today’s GOP is openly hostile to minorities. Republican frontrunner, Donald Trump, routinely makes outrageous and dangerous statements about minorities which has only made him more popular with the racist reactionary GOP base.
With the GOP so antagonistic towards us, minorities are approaching this election from a completely different vantage point than some in the Democratic Party. This brings me to the main theses of this diary: why I believe minorities will carry Hillary over the finish line and into the White House...
Why Minorities Overwhelmingly Support Hillary Clinton over Bernie Sanders
Hillary Clinton has maintained a resilient and commanding lead over Bernie Sanders among minorities this election cycle. For all the talk about Bernie’s surge in New Hampshire and the tightening of the race in Iowa, Bernie has so far failed to make any dent whatsoever in Hillary’s overwhelming minority support. This from the latest WSJ/NBC News Poll:
...[Hillary] leads by a margin of 69% to 27% among nonwhite primary voters, who have little presence in Iowa and New Hampshire but account for large shares of the electorate in states that vote just afterward, including Nevada and South Carolina.
Minority support for Clinton is not just incidental or a result of name recognition… it is very strategic. I can’t pretend to speak for all minorities, but as a 28 yr old black male I surmise that the primary driver behind minority support for Clinton can be summed up in this one word: SURVIVAL.
Why Minorities Overwhelmingly and Consistently Vote Democratic
This is the lens through which many minorities view this election: The Republican Party, with its embrace of people like Donald Trump and dogged pursuit of policies which are downright spiteful to minority communities, has become an existential threat to our survival. The idea of Trump (or any Republican for that matter) winning the election in November is completely intolerable in our minds. This is why my blood boils when I hear people on our side talk casually about sitting out the election in November if their favored candidate doesn’t get the nomination. It literally feels like a slap in the face to me.
[To give you a perspective of the lingering disdain that minorities have for the GOP, if Barack Obama had run as a Republican in 2008, he would almost certainly have lost the minority vote to the Democratic candidate. Party affiliation is very important to us. We don’t easily forget the sins of the GOP going back to the Civil Rights Movement Era.]
Minority antipathy towards the GOP (which is a direct consequence of their hostility towards us) is why we overwhelmingly vote Democratic election after election. This is also why we strongly back Hillary today. We see her as the standard bearer for our party: a proud Democratic fighter who is not afraid to take it to the Republicans. Her years of experience in politics, hardened reputation as a warrior/survivor, gives us reassurance that she can withstand whatever the Republicans throw at her and prevail through it all. We also love the fact that she’s making a full throated embrace of the Obama legacy promising to pick up the mantle and continue where he left off.
2016 is not 2008
Some point to 2008 and argue that Hillary also had a commanding lead with minorities before losing it to Obama after he won the Iowa caucuses. I think that’s very unlikely to happen this year. Even if Bernie overperfoms and wins both Iowa and New Hampshire, the calculus is simply different this time around. Hillary’s lead with minorities will prove durable. It’s a firewall that will protect and fortify her as the race goes on. This is why I am making this prediction: minorities will carrry Hillary over the finish line and into the White House.
My Take On Bernie Sanders
Bernie Sanders is a good man. It’s hard not to like him. Although I’m firmly in the Hillary camp, every-time I see Bernie on TV, I can’t help but be taken aback by his sincerity. I find myself getting drawn into his message. I could very easily be a Sanders supporter. However every time I evaluate the two candidates, I find myself coming back to Hillary. In my evaluation of Bernie two main recurring factors keep propping up:
1. The Republican Threat — I simply do not have confidence in Sanders’ ability to take on the Republicans and withstand their assault in the general. He has never been vetted or put anywhere near the level of pressure that Hillary has withstood over time. His decision to eschew Super Pac support, while honorable, could prove to be a huge strategic blunder in the general as Republicans and their dark monied Super Pacs will have free reign to spend billions of dollars unchecked against him.
2. My survival instincts as a minority — For many of us in minority communities, a Republican presidency would not just be an unfortunate event... it would be catastrophic. Naturally we’ll support the candidate who we feel can best deter the Republicans. We are not idealists, we are realists. We see Bernie as largely the idealist’s candidate. But when you are a minority in America, you have little time to dwell on idealism when your very survival is under attack by the right.
There is an experimental feel to Bernie’s candidacy. We could win big with him or go down in spectacular defeat. To me it feels like taking a big gamble. Because the idea of a Republican winning is so unacceptable to me, I find it’s too much of a gamble for me to stomach. I suspect this is the reason why minorities are so far hesitant to sign up with the Sanders Revolution.
Yes we do know there’s some risk with Hillary, but we feel a sense of safety with her given her steely tenacity and experience prevailing through political battles. And this election, ladies and gentlemen, will be a battle! So Hillary for the win!!!