Bernie Sanders won big last night, and a win is a win. Bernie Sanders won New Hampshire. But while the national media will do what it does, let's attempt a little perspective on what winning New Hampshire actually means.
Of course, it's possible that demographics won't be the factor they have been thus far in the polls of post-New Hampshire states.
What is clear is that African American voters will determine the Democratic nominee. If they stick with Clinton, she will win. If they break for Sanders, he will. African Americans are the most loyal Democratic voters, and they are the most important voters in this year's Democratic nominating process. Simply put, African Americans are the base of the Democratic Party. Those Democrats who haven't before are beginning to understand this, and both the Party and the country will be better for it.
But demographics are not alone in hinting at what is to come. This is particularly important:
Even in a demographically favorable neighboring state, Sanders only split self-identified Democratic voters with Clinton. In Iowa, which was as close as it could have been, Clinton won self-identified Democrats 56-39. In both states, voters can register at the door, allowing independent or unaffiliated voters to participate in either political party's primary or caucus.
Independents and unaffiliated voters kept Sanders from being blown out in Iowa, and they alone were responsible for his blowing out Clinton in New Hampshire. But not all states allow independent or unaffiliated voters to participate in presidential primaries. The following states and territories have closed primaries or caucuses:
Alaska, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Guam, Hawaii, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, New York, Northern Marianas, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Utah, Washington, Wyoming
In other words, for Sanders to win the nomination he is going to have to do much better with a more diverse electorate than he is in the current polling, and he is going to have to do much better with self-identified Democrats than he did in Iowa, which he almost won, and in New Hampshire, which he won resoundingly.
And finally, just for fun, a big thank you to New Hampshire Republicans: