Democrats:

Last edition I noted that the Sanders Campaign was coming on strong and indeed they have. With a basic tie in Iowa, a blowout win in New Hampshire, and a close loss in Nevada the campaign has made a fight of a race that has always been Clinton's to lose. However, the "revolution" that Sanders says is critical to his success has so far failed to materialize. Critically, the turnout numbers for Democrats are not boffo. A true indication that Sanders is bringing a huge number of new people to the voting booth isn't seeming to pan out, forcing Sanders to compete for traditional Democrats and Democrat leaners. That doesn't bode well as the campaign moves to states with closed primaries and little opportunity for huge rallies and retail politics to drive turnout of the voters he's gambling on, new voters and independents. Furthermore, it is clear that outside of his home turf of New England, Sanders is having a problem in large cities as evidenced by poor results in Des Moines and Las Vegas. Those are the places where traditional Democrats live. Still, there is plenty of voting left to do and Sanders has the money to make a real race of it. I think a broader message less laser focused on the most liberal slice of the electorate is in order. 

The Clinton Campaign is sticking to its basic 'keep the barbarians at the gates' defensive strategy. Not exactly an inspiring path, but effective. They have, correctly, identified the most loyal and reliable base of the traditional Democratic Party, women, especially women of color, most especially black women, as their shock troops. Black women have delivered and look likely to continue to do so from here on out. That should be enough to maintain enough of a delegate lead until the nomination is mathematically impossible for the Sanders Campaign to overcome. However, if Sanders finds a way to connect with Black women that gate might show cracks and fall. Clinton needs an offense strategy to take advantage of a string of up coming wins and expand into liberal white voters. Furthermore, her numbers with young people, a critical piece of the winning Obama Coalition, are in the intensive care unit. To avoid being a victorious yet damaged nominee, her numbers with white liberals and young people have to improve. Big states, less focused on college students and more focused on other young people are her opportunity. Can she sieze it? 

For these reasons I am downgrading her win again from easy win to tough win, but upgrading her general election prospects from close loss to close win. (see below) 

Verdict: Hillary Clinton wins tough nomination fight, wins by a hair in the general election. 

Republicans:

Trump. That's the bottom line. Trump. Trump has been the true revolutionary in this race, using a non-traditional strategy of keeping himself constantly in the media and spending little of his own money. Furthermore, as the Washington Post is reporting this morning, he is the only candidate other than Cruz,  Clinton and Sanders  who is building out a national organization. He has shown unexpected success in bringing non-traditional primary voters to the polls, expanding the electorate. GOP turnout numbers have been excellent, breaking records at every contest. However, so far he has benefitted from a fractured field. As other candidates begin to fade, he has is either going to consolidate his gains and grow or find a ceiling. I'm predicting the former. 

The reason I say that is because of the flop of Ted Cruz in South Carolina. With Cruz' money and organization, he should have won South Carolina, a state tailor made for his Campaign. That's a bad look going into the South which he has built his campaign on winning. To get thoroughly beaten by a Manhattan billionaire in his home region indicates to me that Trump's birther strategy against him was very effective. There is nothing Cruz can do about being born in Canada. At this point, I consider his campaign, despite being well funded, unrecoverable without a major stumble by Trump. Nobody is going to come to Cruz' aide and the polls are showing that his critical Christian Evangelical base is split, not unified. 

Finally Rubio, the media darling. With Bush out, Romney and the GOP Establishment coming to his aid, Rubio has the opportunity (certainly not guaranteed), to eek out wins among more traditional Republican primary voters. But it won't be easy. Trump is winning enough of those voters too. If Rubio can't start doing better with white working class voters whom Trump is driving to the polls, he too will find himself like Cruz... running in a party that has caught Trump fever. The GOP is going to start getting winner takes all in the delegate race. Rubio will need clear wins in order to force a convention brawl. 

The thing about Trump is this though: Democratic voters absolutely loathe him. Especially those Obama Coalition voters that we know for a fact is the national majority. If there is anything that should give Democrats hope, its Trump running away with the nomination. For these reasons, I am changing up the GOP verdict completely. 

Verdict: Trump wins a convention floor fight (exciting!) and then loses the general election in a squeaker.