At the Democratic Convention, President Obama noted that people outside of this country don’t understand what’s going on in this election. Well, neither do I. And neither does anyone else, from what I can tell. I’ve been trying to figure out why people vote the way they do for a long time. There already were enough theories out there to choke a think tank, and this has been banner year for theories. Unfortunately, none is much more than theory.
But the fact that we don’t understand it does not mean that we should have been surprised by it. Surprise indicates a lack of appreciation for the concept of The Reservoir of Willful Ignorance. As an introduction, look at the approval ratings of recent presidents, specifically at their low points. (Full plots can be found at www.gallup.com/....)
Lyndon Johnson 35%
Richard Nixon 24%
Gerald Ford 37%
Jimmy Carter 28%
Ronald Reagan 35%
George H. W. Bush 29%
Bill Clinton 37%
George W. Bush 25%
Now, consider the lower bound. Richard Nixon escaped impeachment only by resigning: chased from the Presidency for his high crimes and misdemeanors. Yet, at his lowest point, 24% of the polity thought that this man still was their guy. George W. Bush presided over a fraudulent war of choice that went catastrophically wrong for everyone involved: killing tens if not hundreds of thousands, and miring us in endless conflicts while destabilizing the Middle East and exacerbating Islamic radicalization, leading directly to ISIS. He also presided over the worst economic debacle since the Great Depression. With an economy in free-fall, we were losing 800,000 jobs a month. Yet, 1 in 4 voters still thought George W Bush was doing a bang-up job.
There appears to be a floor of around 25% below which a President will not sink regardless of action, inaction, timidity, crime, culpability, or stupidity. I don’t know why. It makes no sense. It just is.
So, let’s just acknowledge that. Based on observation, the floor exists. Based on derision, we can characterize that floor as a Reservoir of Willful Ignorance in the electorate. Unwitting ignorance may be a factor, of course, but it would take more than that to have missed the problems presented in defending either Richard Nixon or George W. Bush. That leads me to think that it’s a matter more of true believers than of idiocy (though in politics, never count out idiocy).
So, where do we find these true believers? How about those who self-identify as Republican or as Democrats?
Registered voters that identify as Republicans: 26%
Registered voters that identify as Democrats: 29%
The temptation is fierce to identify Willful Ignorance with registered Republicans. However, if that is the source of the Reservoir, close to 100% of the Republican Party would be unable to distinguish a tragically inept or an appallingly corrupt President from a good, competent, or even middling one. Democrats could never achieve that kind of unity. Republicans – well, maybe.
After all, mainstream Republicans just fell in line after a hostile takeover by someone who could not care less about traditional Republican policies or values. They did not fake agonizing deliberations during a long night of the soul. They did not even flip a coin. They certainly didn’t decide that Trump was Presidential material because of his choice for VP: a fundamentalist, religious zealot who denies science at every turn. That might have done the trick in normal times, but the Party had folded long before that. They just fell in line.
Maybe they convinced themselves that a pampered, arrogant, authoritarian, intolerant, hate filled, stridently nationalistic, pandering, proudly ignorant, clown of a man will hit his stride if we just gave him the most powerful position on Earth. Did they also decide that they could live with his overt racism and misogyny, that they were comfortable with owning that, now? They must have decided that they are fine with his sycophantic behavior towards Putin, with his cheating his own contractors and employees, and with the fact that he lies like other people breathe.
This is rationalization on a scale not seen since the Jehovah's Witnesses had to explain 1914 from the perspective of 1915. Or maybe it’s an admission that far more than just the base is good with Trump’s racism, misogyny, and authoritarianism.
Still, it’s not 100%. In fact, I believe we owe a vote of respect to those Republicans who have held out, those few, those happy few who refuse to endorse Trump and have overcome the tendencies shown in the numbers above. They are honorable people.
Too bad that band of honorable brothers does not include the Senate Majority Leader or the Speaker of the House. But how many might it include? Philip Bump argues in the Washington Post that the apparently large Independent registration (42%) is illusory (would that their smugness was, as well). The “leaning toward” clans seem to enjoy calling themselves independents while voting the party line. Bump thinks that a breakdown closer to reality would be 40% Republican and 45% Democratic.
Reservoir of Willful Ignorance: 25%
Likely Republican Voters: 40%
Likely Democratic Voters: 45%
This is more hopeful. Under this distribution, only slightly more than half of each party’s partisans would have to have heroic rationalization skills. This distribution also allows for possibilities such as Barry Goldwater getting 38% of the vote. And, maybe, it allows for Donald J. Trump. We can expect that his polling never will dip below 25 % and might reach 40% counting nothing more than the Willful Ignorance of party partisans.
That still leaves the fundamental questions. Why should there be a reservoir of Willful Ignorance in the American electorate? Why would it be as high as 25%? Why do people vote the way they do? And will Paul Ryan, Mitch McConnell, and mainstream Republicans ever get the stink of Trump off them after this?