We're starting to see more and more reporting on how Donald Trump could effect vulnerable GOP House members, and here's a look at California Rep. Darrell Issa, an eight-term incumbent and former committee chair who could be at risk for Trump creep. Kristina Peterson writes:
“The real risk to Republicans is not the transference of an endorsement for Trump, it’s turnout,” said Jason Roe, a GOP strategist in San Diego who worked for Sen. Marco Rubio ’s presidential campaign. “Latino voters tend to turn out in higher numbers when they feel someone is hostile to them, and Trump is the ultimate in hostility to the Latino community.”
Democrats typically benefit from a boost in turnout of younger and more diverse voters in presidential years. That could imperil California incumbents including Mr. Issa, whose district is 26% Hispanic; Rep. Jeff Denham, whose district is 40% Hispanic; or Rep. David Valadao, whose district is 70% Hispanic. President Barack Obama lost Mr. Issa’s district in 2012 but won the other two.
Freshman GOP Rep. Steve Knight, who represents a district that is more than 35% Hispanic, is considered the state’s most vulnerable incumbent by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
But national Republican operatives said there is no evidence Hispanic voters will choose Democratic challengers over their incumbents, who they say remain well-liked in their districts.
Polls. All of them. LOL. OK, so it's a little more complicated than that, especially when it comes to congressional districts. Since the article also mentions Jeff Denham, Steve Knight, and David Valadao, here's some info from Pew Research Center on the share of Latinos among the district's entire population followed by the share of Latinos among the district's eligible voters.
Darrell Issa 25.7 percent, 17 percent
Jeff Denham 44.5 percent, 26 percent
David Valadao 75.6 percent, 39.4 percent
Steve Knight 38.7 percent, 25.2 percent
