These women are dangerous because they're voters, not rioters.
A story on DailyKos has raised the spector of post-election violence. Basically the point of the article is that Hillary needs to win by a landslide or Donald Trump will never concede and instead whip his supporters into riot-level revolt against president-elect Hillary Clinton.
Donald Trump will not concede no matter how decisive Hillary Clinton’s victory is. GOTV people, but don’t be disappointed if Trump refuses to give a gracious Mitt Romney-style concession speech on November 9th. Nah. Hillary Clinton has a problem with getting her opponents to concede graciously no matter how soundly she whips them. Hell, look at Bernie Sanders. But Hillary Clinton will be in the White House no matter what.
Why?
Trump supporters are assholes, but they’re not rioters. Riots tend to break out in communities where long-simmering and ignored tensions finally boil over. That’s what happened in Milwaukee after the shooting of Sylville Smith. Indeed, there is one common thread among all communities that tend to suffer riots.
Newsweek reminded us last week of something about the recent riots that many politicians would prefer not to think: "If there's one underlying condition that these movements share, it has to do with unemployment and bitter poverty among people who desire to be part of the middle class, and who are keenly aware of the sharp inequality between themselves and their country's wealthy elite."
This does not fit the bill for most Republican Trump-supporters. In fact, compared to Democrats, Republicans tend to be more well-off financially and have better-paying jobs.
An individual’s likelihood of being a Democrat decreases with every additional dollar he or she earns. Democrats have a huge advantage (63 percent) with voters earning less than $15,000 per year. This advantage carries forward for individuals earning up to $50,000 per year, and then turns in the Republicans’ favor — with just 36 percent of individuals earning more than $200,000 per year supporting Democrats
These are people who have a lot to lose if they decide to leave their homes and mount a violent revolution against a legitimately-elected Hillary Clinton. A Hillary Clinton victory will cause a lot of grumbling among the GOP base, but hardly riots.
There is a reason why riots tend to occur in cities like Ferguson, Milwaukee, or Baltimore. These cities have suffered decades of racial repression, police brutality, and unemployment. They tend to have high unemployment among young men. Trump supporters are a little different. They may THINK they're victims of anti-white oppression… but they aren’t.
This is an important aspect of Trump’s appeal, he validates the sense of fake grievance harbored by white people — white men, primarily — that they’re the ones who are truly the victims of racism. When you’re used to dominating society to thoroughly, even a slight loss of privilege feels a lot like oppression.
The white male base of Trump’s support may whine a great deal about how they are oppressed but they have never truly felt the pinch of despair that someone prone to rioting does. Only someone who feels he has nothing to lose in life and sees no way out besides violence will revolt against a political system. Imagined oppression is not quite the same as real oppression. A Trump defeat will cause a lot of over-heated rhetoric online but hardly riots in the streets. At most we may see a few Cliven Bundy-style standoffs in the more red states… annoying but not exactly a breakdown in civil order.
There are many real reasons why I don’t believe that Trump’s possible questioning of Hillary Clinton becoming president-elect in November will lead to any real dangers concerning our democracy. Here are a few of the big ones.
1) Trump supporters may despise Hillary, but they don’t fear her the way Democrats fear Trump. A Hillary election will cause grumbling and a lot of violent online rhetoric, but I don’t see that translating into a violent far-right populist uprising.
2) Trump doesn’t want to go to jail. “Incitement to riot” is a real charge and Trump has already been investigated a few times during this campaign concerning possible incitement. President Obama has held back on slamming the Trump campaign with investigations and slander lawsuits and jail time because jailing a political opponent- no matter how justified- looks REALLY bad even in a democracy as stable as the US. Once the election is over and Hillary Clinton legitimately elected, Obama will have nothing holding him back from launching all sorts of charges against Trump should Trump continue to threaten violence against the established order.
3) Trump is too scattershot and disorganized to mount a revolution against an entity as powerful as the US government. Fuck, he can’t even stay on script or keep a position for more than a week. Most likely, after the election is called for Hillary Clinton by a decisive margin, Trump will make speech after speech about how the election is rigged and he is the legitimate winner and that he will never concede. He’ll threaten violence. Secret Service will have a chat with him. He’ll then concede/ make a rambling speech about how while he’s not conceding and he totally believes he won “Crooked Hillary is gonna be with you guys for the next four years, nothing you can do about it folks except wait for 2020,”/ Slink away and prepare for his trial in front of Judge Curiel.
To tell you the truth my friends, I am afraid that we are much more likely to face riots if Donald Trump were to be elected president- even legitimately. Hillary voters are far more afraid of the repercussions of a Trump presidency than Trump voters are of a Hillary presidency. People who are frightened of deportation or jail time are much more likely to riot. In the UK hate crimes soared after the "Brexit" vote and many observers believe hate crimes will similarly rise in the US if Trump were elected president. And nothing instigates riots like a rise in hate crimes.
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