This is not encouraging. YouGov and Monmouth are both out with new polls of Ohio’s Senate race, and they both show Republican Sen. Rob Portman with a clear lead over ex-Gov. Ted Strickland—even as Hillary Clinton carries the state. YouGov gives Portman a 46-39 edge as Clinton beats Trump 46-40, and Monmouth has Portman up 48-40 while Clinton leads 43-39. Unfortunately, other recent polls also show Portman running far ahead of Trump: The HuffPost Pollster average gives Portman a 45-39 lead while Clinton is up 45-42.
Monmouth finds that Portman is actually pretty unknown with respondents, who hold just a 28-20 favorable view of him. The problem for Team Blue is that Strickland has a negative 23-37 image with those same voters. In the last month, only one other pollster has asked about either candidate’s image: In mid-July, PPP found Portman with a meh 31-37 job approval rating, but gave Strickland an atrocious 29-49 favorability score.
As we’ve noted before, Republicans have been relentlessly hammering Strickland on the airwaves. In ad after ad, including a brand new spot from the NRSC, they’ve argued that when he was governor at the end of the last decade, Strickland was to blame for Ohio's job losses, and they've attacked him for draining the state's once-flush rainy day fund. Strickland was governor during the worst of the Great Recession, but the GOP of course isn’t going to mention that. They’re simply content to portray Strickland as irresponsible, and these polls indicate that their approach is working. Voters may not be in love with Portman, but right now they’re choosing him over Strickland, and Trump just isn’t dragging the senator down enough.
And while Democrats have run ads attacking Portman, there have been almost no positive commercials aired for Strickland.
The well-funded Portman has the resources to run ads promoting himself, and he’s been doing it for months. Indeed, Portman is out with a new spot starring retired Gen. Barry McCaffrey, who identifies himself as the Clinton administration’s drug czar, praising Portman’s work on drug policy. Portman also released another ad featuring a local factory owner and his employees commending the senator for saving their company.
Meanwhile, Strickland, who has had trouble raising cash during this campaign, only recently went up with his first ad. The good news is that it’s still only August, and both Monmouth and PPP find that Portman is still pretty undefined. If Democrats can damage Portman’s image with voters and tie him to Trump, they might yet be able to score pickup here. But if enough Clinton voters agree with the GOP that Strickland was a disastrous governor, Portman’s going to be very, very tough to beat.
While Democrats need to attack Portman, they also need to give voters a reason to back Strickland, and they can’t do that as long as Republicans are the only ones saying anything about his governorship. As we’ve said before, Strickland needs to fight back against these bogus slams on his tenure and make it clear why drawing down the state’s emergency funds was the right thing to do during such a grave crisis. It’s an argument he can most certainly make. He just needs to actually make it.
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