NONE of the polls included in this include polling taken yesterday, except where the LA Times tracking poll that oversamples Republicans, and which I believe showed +3 towards Clinton yesterday, and perhaps the Morning Call, which is a daily tracking.  So what you are looking at is the impact of the first debate, the continued attacks on Machado, and the VP debate, the NY Times story on taxes, Kurt Eichenwald’s journalism, etc.

While we have no idea how tonight’s debate will play out — and apparently first question will be to Clinton about the Trump tape, which could well blow up everything — my sense is that the picture will only get worse for Trump.

Anecdotally, we know the fleeing of Republican office holders from Trump is having some impact — especially on Trump!  

At this point, I am unaware of any unbiased observer who believes that — absent a totally exogenous event far worse than the most recent Wikileaks release — Trump has ANY path to 270 electoral votes. In fact, at this point I think one can make a strong argument that Clinton has a greater chance of winning 400 electoral votes than Trump has of winning.  In fact, she might have a better chance of 380 than he does of 200. 

Further, there is a huge amount of chatter among the political class that the two expected next dumps against Trump may be as bad if not worse than what we have already seen.

As Trump spirals down, we are finding journalists far more willing to be aggressive in pushing back against Trump surrogates, as became clear when Rudy Giuliani made the rounds of the Sunday Morning shows.

We continue to see the pattern of no major newspapers endorsing Trump, and seeing first time endorsements or unusual endorsements of Clinton by Republican newspapers.

I have a lot of time on my hands.

I have been following as much as I can, and doing a lot of sharing here.  As I noted yesterday, I was feeling overwhelmed by how much was happening.

I have no doubts about the presidential.  Because I expect the margin to be solid, I am quite optimistic about regaining the Senate.  I am becoming ever hopeful of a chance of taking back the House, although that remains a long shot.

I am more worried about the destructiveness of our polity, something we have seen intensified to a rather scary level.  We have seen a rise of hate speech and actions. And I fear that it will only get worse in the remaining month of this campaign, and I fear the aftermath.

Which is why I hope the wins is as lopsided as possible, in the hope that a substantial portion of the American people will be willing to accept the outcome even when Donald Trump does not.

I worry about the future of our democracy.  Even when Clinton gets elected.

UPDATE 5:55 —  Steve Schmidt just said what I presumed from his previous comments on Meet the Press this morning.  At the end of Meet the Press Daily he told Chuck Todd that what Republicans are seeing coming back in their private polls as a result of the Trump tape is their numbers collapsing which is why Schmidt thinks Chuck Schumer WILL BE Senate Majority Leader.  Given that Senators can run several points ahead of Trump, that implies approaching a blowout.  Chuck Todd just said he thought Utah could be in play, and previously today I have heard talk about Kansas, and Nate Silver has said AK is closer than PA.  GA and AZ are clearly within reach already. 

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UPDATE 2  Geraldo Rivera says he has embarrassing audio tapes of Trump, as you can read in this piece at Politico from which I offer this:

“I have interviewed Donald Trump many times and been with him many times and I have tapes,” Rivera said on Fox News’ The Five Sunday. “My brother and I have been starting to go through the tapes now and there are statements that, in the context of the current climate, would be embarrassing.

Rivera has not said he will release the tape, says he has not heard Trump use the “Pt” word, nor did he come on to “any of the beautiful women on the program.”

UPDATE 3 6:22:

UPDATE 4 Chris Christie's Lt. Gov, Kim Guadagno, has announced she will not vote for Donald Trump, as you can read in this piece at The Hill.

"No apology can excuse away Mr. Trump's reprehensible comments degrading women,” Guadagno tweeted on Saturday. "We're raising my 3 boys to be better than that.”

Not going to vote for Clinton, but beyond that does not yet know.

UPDATE 5 7:10 PM  —  I have added in one prediction I left out, PredictWise, which is now at 87%, up from 70% before 1st debate.

UPDATE 6   8:40 PM  For the first time in its history, Foreign Policy has made an endorsement in a Presidential campaign:

A Donald Trump presidency is among the greatest threats facing America, and the Republican standard-bearer is the worst major-party candidate for the job in U.S. history.

By The Editors of Foreign Policy

In the nearly half century history of Foreign Policy, the editors of this publication have never endorsed a candidate for political office. We cherish and fiercely protect this publication’s independence and its reputation for objectivity, and we deeply value our relationship with all of our readers, regardless of political orientation.

It is for all these reasons that FP’s editors are now breaking with tradition to endorse Hillary Clinton for the next president of the United States.