I have been obsessively checking out the early voting in Florida.
We seem to be doing pretty well today, regardless of the Bloomberg poll showing him 2 points ahead.
That poll is giving people heartburn (if you’re for her) or hope (if you’re for him).
The thing is that she doesn’t really need Florida to win the election. Or Ohio. Or even Nevada, where she seems doing pretty well.
Check the following tweet from Nate Silver:
Let’s add the electoral votes of the states she is currently 7 or more points ahead:
Virginia: 13
New Hampshire: 4
Minnesota: 10
Michigan: 16
Wisconsin: 10
Colorado: 9
Pennsylvania: 20
Total: 82
Now let’s add the true blue states:
California: 55
Oregon: 7
Connecticut: 7
Delaware: 3
D.C.: 3
Maine: 3 *
Illinois: 20
Maryland: 10
Massachusetts: 11
New Jersey: 14
New York: 29
Rhode Island: 4
Vermont: 3
Washington: 12
Hawaii: 4
New Mexico: 5 **
Total: 272
As you can see neither Florida nor Ohio are “must win” states for Hillary.
Of course she should do everything humanly possible to win those states. And she is doing that and more.
The point of this diary is not to say “She got this in the bag”. Even if you live in Alabama you MUST go out and vote for her. And for any democrat in the ballot.
It’s ok to worry or be concerned. Considering the possibility of a Trump presidency, anything else is just inhuman. But panicking because of one stupid poll, that even if it accurately predicted the result in Florida, would not help Trump, is just dumb.
* I’m note sure about Maine’s CD 1, so I am not counting it.
** I’m not sure about New Mexico being a true blue state, but according to 538, she’s ahead by 10 there, so I counted it.