On Tuesday, Daily Kos-endorsed Democrat Kevin Cavanaugh scored a decisive 55-44 win in New Hampshire state Senate District 16. This special election was called to replace a Democrat who’d tragically died of cancer just a few months after winning the seat in November—the first Democrat to hold this district since 2010 and the only Democratic pickup in the chamber last cycle. Cavanaugh’s victory bears historic significance, as well: According to the state Democratic Party, Tuesday’s race was the first Democratic win in a state Senate special election since 1984.
By holding this seat, Democrats have kept the GOP’s edge in the Senate to 14-to-10. That keeps Democrats within striking distance of flipping the chamber next year and dislodging the GOP’s “trifecta” control over all three branches of New Hampshire’s government: the state House, the state Senate, and the governorship. Had Republicans prevailed, though, they’d have found themselves with a more daunting 15-to-9 advantage in the chamber—and would have stymied Democratic momentum.
This Democratic victory was no easy feat. Cavanaugh faced a skilled opponent with solid name recognition: specifically, the Republican who had held this Senate seat up until his successor’s swearing-in just this past January. Former Sen. David Boutin drew on his long-established ties to moneyed interests, as well as more than $37,000 brought over from his previous campaigns. Republicans also have a registration edge in this district (35 percent to Democrats’ 29 percent, with 36 percent registered as “undeclared”), and while Clinton won it narrowly last fall, Republican Gov. Chris Sununu and former U.S. Sen. Kelly Ayotte both carried the seat by “substantial margins.”
Cavanaugh entered the race as an underdog in this swing district, and high-profile Republicans worked hard to deliver a win for Boutin: Both Sununu and Ayotte cut radio ads for him, and the New Hampshire Republican Party raised and spent about $61,000 on direct mail and radio.
But in the weeks preceding the election, Granite State Republicans reminded voters of the damage they can inflict when holding unchecked power. Sununu signed a heinous new voter suppression and intimidation measure into law about two weeks before the special, and some observers in the state think voter turnout (nearly 21 percent, “impressive” for an irregular summer election) spiked as a result. This relatively high turnout and dramatic Democratic over-performance (11 percent better than Clinton’s numbers last fall) continues a remarkable and consistent trend in special elections held since Trump’s election.
But there’s more to the big turnout and impressive Democratic performance in this special election beyond voter backlash.
Democrats have repeatedly demonstrated great energy and enthusiasm in elections nationwide this year, but those voters don’t magically show up at a polling place on a random summer Tuesday.
Cavanaugh was able to harness this enthusiasm because he had the resources to do so. He was aided by the support of the Daily Kos community, which gave more than $16,000 via almost 1,200 donations—a sum that had a real impact. To put that in context, Cavanaugh reported raising $126,000 just before Election Day, making Daily Kos contributions nearly 13 percent of his total haul. That’s a huge proportion, and it shows how far our dollars can go in smaller legislative races like this one.
Cavanaugh also had outside help. The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee invested sweat and shoe leather in this win. The organization’s independent expenditure operation reportedly yielded more than 5,000 phones called and 6,000 doors knocked, and the committee actually had national staff on the ground in the district to help direct and coordinate field efforts.
This is the kind of strategic execution that can make or break Democratic candidates in these small down-ballot elections. Every single cycle, hundreds of these state legislative contests are won by 1,000, 500, 100, or even fewer votes. Just as every single dollar matters in these races, every single voter contact matters, too. In this election and in others to come, keep an eye out for the organizational efforts that have real impact, whether it’s real dollars raised or real boots on the ground.
