Leading Off
● CA-49: On Wednesday, longtime GOP Rep. Darrell Issa, the wealthiest member of Congress, unexpectedly announced he would retire. His departure is not entirely surprising, though: Issa won re-election last cycle by just a 50.3-49.7 margin, making his the closest House race in the country, and a big part of the reason was because California's 49th District, based in the affluent and well-educated northern San Diego suburbs, reacted to Donald Trump very poorly. Voters there had supported Mitt Romney 52-46 in 2012 but gave Hillary Clinton a 51-43 win in 2016. As a result, the 49th was already a top Democratic target for 2018, and it will remain so following this latest development.
Campaign Action
Issa was first elected in 2000, and until 2016, he'd never faced a close re-election fight. But Issa long ago earned the ire of progressives across the nation, dating back to when he bankrolled the successful effort to recall California Gov. Gray Davis in 2003. Issa had planned to run in the crowded recall campaign himself, but after Arnold Schwarzenegger jumped in and sucked up the oxygen on the GOP side, Issa tearfully announced he wouldn't join the race.
But while Issa may not have wanted to stick around in Congress, he made the most of his post by using his position as chair of the House Oversight Committee—and millions in taxpayer dollars—to launch bogus investigation after bogus investigation against the Obama administration (chief among them the interminable Benghazi probe), bragging he wanted "seven hearings a week, times 40 weeks." Issa's rap sheet in fact goes on for days—click here for the full readout.
In 2016, though, political changes in Issa's district and his notorious reputation finally caused him trouble at home. While retired Marine Col. Doug Applegate entered the race against him with little fanfare and started with little money, Issa only wound up edging him 51-46 in the June top-two primary, often a predictor of November's results.
With Issa looking unexpectedly vulnerable, national Democratic groups consolidated behind Applegate, and Issa-haters everywhere gladly contributed to his campaign. Issa did not react kindly, even suing Applegate in an effort to intimidate him into taking an attack ad down. (Weirdly, Issa's complaint took the time to reference the fact that we here at Daily Kos Elections wrote up this ad. So … thanks for reading?) Applegate, true to his Marine Corps heritage, didn't back down, and after the election, a judge ordered Issa to pay $45,000 in legal fees to his opponent.
After Issa's narrow escape, Democrats very much planned to make him a target again. Applegate quickly jumped in for another try, as did environmental attorney Mike Levin, real estate investor Paul Kerr, and former Hillary Clinton presidential campaign policy adviser Sara Jacobs.
While Issa was always going to be in serious danger this cycle, it's perversely possible the GOP could have a better shot without him—something you rarely say when an incumbent retires. On the one hand, it's almost always harder to beat a scandal-free incumbent than win an open seat, and Issa was one politician who never needed to worry about having enough money to win.
However, Issa's close call in 2016 showed he wasn't exactly beloved at home, so the GOP might benefit from a fresh face in an area that usually favors Republicans down the ballot. That said, Issa just helped turbocharge the narrative that at-risk Republican members of Congress are flying for the exits, and any potential successor will be starting from scratch in an effort to hold this seat.
Almost immediately after the Issa news broke, Board of Equalization member Diane Harkey announced she'd run and said she had the congressman's backing, as well as that of Rep. Mimi Walters, who represents the neighboring 45th District. Harkey also reportedly has the support of House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, who is also from California.
Harkey is a former member of the state Assembly, and the post she currently holds is an elected one as well. (California's Board of Equalization administers tax collection across the state.) In 2013, though, Harkey and her husband, Dan Harkey, drew bad headlines when they were sued for preying on elders in a Ponzi-like scheme. Diane Harkey was later dismissed from the case, but her husband was ultimately found culpable and ordered to repay $11.6 million. That didn't end Diane Harkey's involvement in the matter, however: After investors proved unable to recover money from either Harkey, they succeeded in garnishing Diane Harkey's wages as a legislator. Somehow, though, this whole mess didn't stop Harkey from decisively winning an open seat on the equalization board in 2014 by a 62-38 margin, even though Hillary Clinton won the same district 54-40 two years later.
Also on Wednesday, Assemblyman Rocky Chavez announced he would run for Team Red. On paper, Chavez looks like a good candidate: He represents two-thirds of the 49th's residents in the legislature, he's a Marine veteran in a seat where the military is a big presence, and he's Hispanic in a district where Latinos make up 22 percent of the population. However, Chavez's abortive 2016 U.S. Senate bid shouldn't give his supporters much hope.
While Chavez had the support of San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, he raised an embarrassingly weak amount of money, even for a candidate running in an extremely uphill race for his party. Chavez ended 2015 with just $369 in the bank (not a typo), and he publicly accused party leaders of telling donors to stay away from him. In February, Chavez attended a Republican candidate debate and, right before it was set to begin, he announced he was dropping out and seeking re-election instead. Chavez then left the studio, leaving his two former opponents on stage and dumbfounded. So yeah, GOP, you should nominate him.
Alas, plenty of other Republicans could jump in here. State Assemblyman Bill Brough said he was "considering running," though Around the Capitol's Scott Lay writes that Brough is Harkey's former chief of staff and thus doubts he'd run against her. Local GOP operatives also floated San Diego County Supervisor Kristin Gaspar's name to Politico, while one incredibly hopeful Republican named Faulconer himself as a possibility. However, it seems unlikely that Faulconer, who is one of the last remaining GOP "stars" in California, would giving up two years as head of one of America's largest cities to run a difficult race for the House in a challenging environment, and there's no sign he's interested.
The Sacramento Bee's Christopher Cadelago also spoke to an unnamed GOP source who rattled off a number of further possibilities. The list includes former Orange County GOP Chair Scott Baugh, who didn't rule out a bid for the 39th District this week and spent part of 2016 raising $500,000 for a future run for the 48th; conservative radio host Carl DeMaio, a former San Diego councilor who lost a close race in the neighboring 52nd District in 2014; and former Karl Rove aide Denise Gitsham, who lost a not-so-close race in the 52nd District in 2016. Voice of San Diego also included Escondido Mayor Sam Abed and San Diego Supervisor Bill Horn as possibilities, while the Los Angeles Times added state Senate Minority Leader Pat Bates to the roster.
The candidate filing deadline is in mid-March. Under California law, all the candidates will run on one ballot, and the two top vote-getters will advance to November, regardless of party.
4Q Fundraising
Click here for our chart rounding up all Senate fundraising numbers. As per usual, we'll have a chart of House numbers after the reporting deadline, which is Jan. 31.
● MI-Sen: Debbie Stabenow (D-inc): $1.9 million raised, $8 million cash-on-hand
● OH-Sen: Sherrod Brown (D-inc): $2.6 million raised, $9.8 million cash-on-hand
● WI-Sen: Kevin Nicholson (R): $800,000 raised, $500,000 cash-on-hand (Nicholson had $345,000 on-hand at the end of September, so that's a pretty high burn rate)
● WV-Sen: Patrick Morrisey (R): $737,000 raised; $1.1 million cash-on-hand
● CT-Gov: Luke Bronin (D): $110,000 raised (in 25 days)
● KS-Gov: Jeff Colyer (R): $630,000 raised, $550,000 cash-on-hand; Greg Orman (I): $450,000 raised (in one month)
● SC-Gov: James Smith (D): $525,000 raised; Kevin Bryant (R): $46,000 raised, $256,000 cash-on-hand
● GA-06: Kevin Abel (D): $153,000 raised (in six weeks, plus $50,000 in self-funding)
● IL-10: Sapan Shah (R): $338,000 raised
● KS-03: Kevin Yoder (R-inc): $500,000 raised, $1.75 million cash-on-hand
● NY-19: Antonio Delgado (D): $425,000 raised (no self-funding), $1 million cash-on-hand
● PA-01: Nina Ahmad (D): $115,000 raised (plus $464,000 in self-funding), $564,000 cash-on-hand
● TX-23: Jay Hulings (D): $210,000 raised
● TX-29: Tahir Javid (D): $253,000 raised (in three weeks)
Senate
● AZ-Sen: Local Republican pollster OH Predictive Insights just conducted a new one-day poll on behalf of local news station ABC15 that tests the Republican primary for Senate, following Tuesday's announcement from notorious former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio that he would run for this open seat. The survey shows Arpaio debuting in second place with 29 percent, while Rep. Martha McSally is narrowly ahead with 31 percent, and former state Sen. Kelli Ward is close behind at 25 percent. This pollster's last survey, taken in November, gave Ward a 42-34 lead over McSally in a head-to-head, so their latest numbers suggest, as we'd expected, that Arpaio would seriously hurt Ward's chances of winning the nomination.
However, early leads like this must be taken with a grain of salt. This survey was conducted on the very day Arpaio announced his candidacy, when his name was all over the news. Furthermore, Arpaio's infamous tenure as one of the cruelest law-enforcement officers in America has almost certainly left him far better-known than either Ward or McSally, the latter of whom hasn't even officially joined the race yet.
Consequently, Arpaio's opponents could begin to outpace him in the polls once they start boosting their name recognition with GOP primary voters. They'll also have plenty to material to attack Arpaio, who hasn't faced a competitive Republican primary since he first became sheriff in 1992 and ultimately lost re-election to a Democrat in 2016 because of his many flaws. But Arpaio's half-baked candidacy may yet still present a major threat to Ward, who has been trying to consolidate the extremist voters in the primary and can't afford to have them galloping over to the ex-sheriff.
● IN-Sen: Wealthy former state Rep. Mike Braun is back on TV and radio with a $550,000 ad buy for the Republican primary for Senate. His new TV spot touts his business acumen to argue he knows how to bring back jobs that have been outsourced to Mexico and China. Braun promises to repeal Obamacare and defund sanctuary cities, while he also makes sure to hit upon standard conservative buzzwords like "pro-life."
● MI-Sen: Wealthy venture capitalist Sandy Pensler says he has given $5 million of his own money to his campaign for the Republican nomination to face Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow this fall. Pensler only joined the race in November, but his only notable opponent is businessman John James, who had raised just a few hundred thousand dollars by the end of September. Neither candidate's fourth quarter 2017 fundraising reports are available yet, but it's unlikely that James will have remotely that much cash if Pensler was serious about much money he's self-funded.
Either Republican will still face an uphill battle against Stabenow, but Pensler's cash could at least make the incumbent sweat. Stabenow's not relaxing, though: She raised $1.9 million over the last three months and stockpiled $8 million in cash-on-hand. Pensler's wealth may give him an outside shot, but only if voters in this swing state like what he's selling enough to ditch their longtime Democratic incumbent in a year that isn't shaping up to be friendly to Republicans.
● OH-Sen, OH-Gov: The dominoes are beginning to fall both left and right in Ohio. After state Treasurer Josh Mandel unexpectedly dropped his bid for Senate, both the Cincinnati Enquirer and Fox News are reporting that GOP Rep. Jim Renacci will drop his campaign for governor and switch over to the Senate race instead. Renacci has yet to publicly confirm the move, but the White House has reportedly been pushing for him to make the switch. Renacci had previously said he would "fully consider" changing gears if Trump asked him to, and a decision could reportedly come as soon as Thursday.
However, other Republicans may not be sold on his candidacy. National Republicans have reportedly taken a shine to best-selling author J.D. Vance, and his consultant has now confirmed that he is indeed thinking about running. Vance was seen in D.C. on Wednesday with the chief of staff to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, and McConnell himself has reportedly told his associates that he would "prioritize the race" if Vance runs.
Beyond Vance, the Washington Examiner reports that Youngstown State University president Jim Tressel "has become a top GOP recruit." Tressel is more widely known as the championship-winning former head football coach at the Ohio State University, meaning he could start the race with significant name recognition if he were to run. However, there's no indication from Tressel himself of whether he's even interested. Lastly, one Ohio Republican has said he'll stay out of the race: Butler County Sheriff Richard Jones confirmed Wednesday that he won't run.
Meanwhile, on the Democratic side of the gubernatorial contest, the field has begun to consolidate after former consumer financial watchdog Richard Cordray joined the primary last month. Former Rep. Betty Sutton has agreed to drop out of the race to become Cordray's running-mate (candidates for governor in Ohio must make their lieutenant governor choice before the primary rather than after).
Furthermore, Cleveland.com reporter Jeremy Pelzer relayed that Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley would also be dropping out of the race for governor, but there has neither been confirmation of it nor a word about it from Whaley herself. Whaley has had harsh words for Cordray over his decision to leave the Consumer Financial Protection Board to run for office, so it would be quite the climb-down if she drops out. However, other Democrats remain undeterred, as state Sen. Joe Schiavoni, former state Rep. Connie Pillich, and soon-to-be-former state Supreme Court Justice Bill O'Neill are all still running in the primary.
Gubernatorial
● AZ-Gov: Arizona's gubernatorial contest hasn't attracted anywhere near as much attention as the state's Senate race, but one Democrat is once again making the case that GOP Gov. Doug Ducey is very beatable. David Garcia, an Arizona State University professor who narrowly lost the 2014 general election for state schools superintendent, is out with a January PPP survey giving him a 43-42 edge over Ducey. The poll has Ducey underwater with a 35-47 approval rating.
The same sample shows Steve Farley, a state senator from the Tucson area, trailing Ducey 42-39 and losing the Democratic primary to Garcia 43-22. Back in June, Garcia released a similar PPP poll that showed him leading Ducey 44-42 and Farley trailing 42-40, though it gave Garcia a larger 55-11 primary lead.
● CT-Gov: On Tuesday, one Republican and two Democrats announced they were running for Connecticut's open governorship. Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton has been raising money for his exploratory campaign for over a year, and as he announced he was officially running for the GOP nod, he declared that he'd raised $272,000 in small donations, enough to quality for the state's public campaign finance program. Because exploratory committees can accept larger donations than official campaign committees, it's not uncommon for politicians to stay in exploratory mode as long as possible while they try to raise enough cash to qualify for the public finance program. Boughton also ran in 2014, but he dropped out before the primary.
On the Democratic side, former Veterans Affairs Commissioner Sean Connolly also switched from exploring to running. Meanwhile, businessman Guy Smith, whom we hadn't heard of before, decided to skip the exploratory stage entirely and announced he was also seeking the Democratic nomination. Smith's team adds that, unlike most of the candidates from both sides, he won't try to qualify for public financing. Smith has worked for a number of corporations and non-profits, but perhaps most notably, he handled radio media for Bill Clinton's impeachment defense team in 1998, and he did radio press for Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign. (Smith says he's known the two since Bill Clinton was governor of Arkansas.) Smith also served as a vice-chairman for the disaster relief organization AmeriCares, which is based in Stamford.
Meanwhile, two other Democrats seem close to announcing they're in. The CT Mirror reported on Tuesday that wealthy businessman Ned Lamont had commissioned a poll, which Lamont acknowledged likely gives him 10 days to create a campaign finance committee under state law. Lamont famously rallied progressive anger against the Iraq War in 2006 to beat Sen. Joe Lieberman in the Democratic primary but lost the general election when Lieberman ran under the banner of the infamous "Connecticut for Lieberman" party and won another term. Lamont also ran for governor in 2010, but unexpectedly lost the primary 57-43 to Dan Malloy, who went on to win two terms as governor but is not seeking a third.
Then there's also former Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz, who has sent mixed signals about whether she was more likely to run for governor or for the state Senate, though she sounds like she's settled on door number one. Bysiewicz acknowledged on Wednesday that, while she hasn't decided on anything, she's been raising the type of money she'd need to switch to the governor's race, announcing that she's already brought in $146,000. Notably, Bysiewicz's allies also recently helped expel Middletown Mayor Dan Drew, who is a declared candidate for governor, from the local Democratic town committee, something they probably wouldn't have done if Bysiewicz didn't plan to run against Drew. Bysiewicz last ran for office in 2012, when she lost the Senate primary to eventual winner Chris Murphy 67-33.
Finally, we can cross one possible Democratic candidate off the list. While Ridgefield First Selectman Rudy Marconi showed some interest all the way back in April, he said no this week.
● MD-Gov: Gonzales Research polled Maryland's upcoming Democratic primary for governor, and they found roughly one-third of voters are undecided. Prince George's County Executive Rushern Baker earned the most support of any candidate at 24 percent, while both Baltimore County Executive Kevin Kamenetz and former NAACP president Ben Jealous took 14 percent, and state Sen. Richard Madaleno earned 5 percent. This poll is consistent with previous polling that had found Baker ahead thanks to his higher name recognition but with voters still relatively unsure about whom to support. Candidates could begin to surge or falter once they and their rivals gear up their campaigns and start contacting voters, meaning this primary is still wide open.
● MI-Gov: Wealthy businessman Shri Thanedar says he will spend $900,000 on a TV ad campaign over the next month, culminating in a spot to air during the Super Bowl that will cost roughly $150,000 to $200,000. Thanedar started off in the Democratic primary for governor with little name recognition, but thanks to his personal wealth, he has more money at his disposal than any other candidate so far. However, there's no guarantee that a monetary advantage will help the first-time candidate seal the deal with Democratic primary voters over his more politically experienced rivals.
● WI-Gov: After months of flirting with it, Madison Mayor Paul Soglin announced on Wednesday that he would join the crowded Democratic primary to take on GOP Gov. Scott Walker. Soglin, who is 72, was first elected mayor in 1971, and he has a reputation as something of a radical: Notably, he traveled to Cuba to meet with Fidel Castro and presented Castro with a key to his city. Soglin left office in 1979, but won back his old post in 1989. He then resigned to run for Congress in 1996, losing GOP Rep. Scott Klug 57-41. Soglin narrowly lost another comeback bid for mayor in 2003 to Dave Cieslewicz but unseated him in a tight race eight years later.
Walker wasted absolutely no time portraying Soglin as a crazy left-winger who loves Fidel and is unacceptable outside of dark blue Madison. Walker also painted his state's capitol city as a hellhole,declaring that under Soglin "businesses have left and murders have gone up." Uh, not exactly: Madison's unemployment rate is lower than the statewide rate, and while murders did increase last year, they went up to 11 … from eight the year before.
In any event, it's still anyone's guess who will emerge from the August Democratic contest. Also in the running are (deep breath): businessman Andy Gronik; state Rep. Dana Wachs; state Sen. Kathleen Vinehout; ex-state Rep. Kelda Helen Roys; Professional Fire Fighters of Wisconsin president Mahlon Mitchell; former party chair Matt Flynn; and state Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Evers. Soglin's base in voter-rich Madison could give him an edge in such a crowded contest, but it's far too soon to tell. But whoever emerges will be in for a tough bid against Walker, who will have all the money he wants and can start hitting his opponent immediately after the primary.
House
● CA-39: A few days ago, we were worried that the GOP could squeeze two candidates through the June top-two primary and keep this competitive Southern California seat red by default, but that seems a bit less likely now. On Tuesday, retiring Rep. Ed Royce backed Young Kim, a former aide who lost re-election to the state Assembly in 2016 53-47 as Clinton was carrying her seat 57-37. But within hours, three more noteworthy Republicans also kicked off their campaigns: ex-state Senate Minority Leader Bob Huff, Orange County Supervisor Shawn Nelson, and La Mirada City Councilor Andrew Sarega.
Huff served in the legislature from 2004 until he was termed-out in 2016. His old state Senate seat included about 80 percent of the 39th District's denizens, so he should have a good base of support there. Nelson, who is termed-out this year, has served on the Orange County Board of Supervisors since 2010, and the Los Angeles Times says he represents about half the 39th. Sarega is a different story: His entire city of La Mirada is in another district, though he says he'll throw $200,000 of his own money into his campaign.
This seat, which includes Fullerton, swung from 51-47 Romney to 51-43 Clinton, and several Democrats were running here before Royce called it a career on Monday. At the end of September, five had at least $100,000 in the bank, while three of them had at least $475,000 on hand, some thanks to self-funding. Additionally, Mt. San Antonio College trustee Jay Chen, who was Royce's 2012 opponent, says he's considering getting in as well. Chen lost 58-42 back then, raising close to $600,000 for the effort and self-funding almost another $200,000, as national Democrats took a pass on targeting this seat.
If about the same number of well-funded and well-known Democrats and Republicans are running in the June top-two primary, the odds are good that each party will have a candidate for the general election. Still, the top-two system is unpredictable, and both parties may need to be at least somewhat worried about a lockout. It's also a big question what the primary electorate will look like. In past years, Republicans have disproportionately turned out in California primaries. However, things may be different in a year where Democratic enthusiasm is high and where Team Blue has several credible candidates running for the open governor's race while the GOP only has second-stringers. The candidate filing deadline is in mid-March.
● IL-04: This week, the SEIU Illinois State Council threw its support behind Cook County Commissioner Chuy Garcia, the frontrunner in the March primary for this safely blue open seat.
● NC Redistricting: In a historic victory against partisan gerrymandering, a federal court unanimously struck down North Carolina's Republican-drawn congressional map on Tuesday for discriminating against Democratic voters in violation of the First and 14th Amendments. That makes this the first time ever that a federal court has invalidated a congressional map on such grounds, and it could lead to enormous changes in how redistricting is conducted in both North Carolina and nationwide.
In an effort to ensure new maps will be in place for the 2018 elections, the three-judge panel hearing this case has given the GOP-dominated state legislature two weeks to redraw the lines, but Republicans say they plan to appeal to the Supreme Court. However, if this ruling survives appeal and leads to a less partisan map, it would strike a huge blow against one of the worst gerrymanders ever drawn, which left Democrats with just 3 of 13 seats in what is an evenly divided swing state. Indeed, as we have demonstrated, Democrats could gain several more seats with a nonpartisan map.
As Daily Kos Elections' Stephen Wolf explains in detail, this case is a momentous one for both North Carolina and the country. For the past three decades, the Supreme Court has maintained that drawing maps for the benefit of one political party could violate the Constitution but has never before agreed to strike down any particular map, saying the judiciary lacks a standard for determining when gerrymandering crosses the line into a constitutional harm.
The lower court thus presented its own standard that plaintiffs must prove a map: was enacted with discriminatory partisan intent; had an asymmetric and durable partisan effect; and couldn't be defended as a byproduct of nonpartisan redistricting criteria like geographic compactness. Plaintiffs used a variety of statistical tests to demonstrate the partisan effect and computer-generated maps to show the map couldn't have been the byproduct of neutral criteria alone. And most importantly, there was the GOP's own naked admission that they acted with extreme partisan intent.
Unfortunately, the Supreme Court will likely issue a stay and hold this case until it resolves two related cases in Maryland and Wisconsin sometime by the end of the current term in June. Consequently, there's a good chance that Republicans will get away with their extreme gerrymandering for yet another election cycle in North Carolina. Furthermore, if Republican legislators indeed get another crack at drawing the map, there will likely attempt a more subtle gerrymander in an effort to survive judicial scrutiny.
Nevertheless, this ruling gives the Supreme Court even more impetus to finally clarify once and for all whether there's an acceptable standard to assess when partisan gerrymandering is unconstitutional. And if it does, this case could have a far-reaching impact on congressional maps throughout the country, potentially changing how redistricting is conducted forever—and making election outcomes much fairer.
● NH-01: On Wednesday, Carroll County Commissioner Mark Hounsell announced he would seek the GOP nomination for this open swing seat. Hounsell served two terms in the state Senate back in the 1980s, and he's left the GOP twice. In 2002, Hounsell bailed after he was "taken to task" for backing a write-in campaign in support of Sen. Bob Smith in the general election after Smith lost renomination. Much later, in 2014, Hounsell ran for a state House seat as an independent, but took last place.
On the Democratic side, businessman Deaglan McEachern announced he was in on Wednesday, almost three months after he had formed an exploratory committee. McEachern's father, Paul McEachern, is a prominent party leader who unsuccessfully ran for governor four times (three times in the 1980s and most recently in 2004). Back in October, the younger McEachern declared, "Republicans I've talked to are great people who care about the country. It's when we each get on separate sides and start throwing rocks that it becomes disappointing," which isn't exactly an inspiring primary message.
● NM-02: This week, Gavin Clarkson, a New Mexico State University business professor who recently resigned his post at the Interior Department, joined the GOP primary for this 50-40 Trump seat, and … he's a character.
Before Clarkson was appointed to his job at Interior by Secretary Ryan Zinke, he was a consultant for Native American tribes that received loans for their businesses. But in November, ProPublica reported that Clarkson had "played a key role in a convoluted transaction that flopped and left the Interior Department fending off a $20 million liability that is still in litigation years later."
Clarkson's post at Interior also involved him guaranteeing loans to Indian businesses, which didn't exactly look good after his past problems came to light. After a scathing inspector general's report was released, Clarkson quit his job. Clarkson pretended that the mess had nothing to do with his departure, though: He recently told the Las Cruces Sun-News that he left to run for this open seat while dismissing the negative media converge as "the epitome of fake news."
● OH-12: While Franklin County Auditor Clarence Mingo didn't rule out a bid for the GOP nomination in October, he said no this week.
● PA-09: This week, physician John Joyce expressed interest in joining the GOP primary for this safely red open seat. Joyce operates a local dermatology clinic and has served on medicine-related boards in the Altoona area, giving him a somewhat different-than-usual profile that could help him stand out in the May primary if he gets in.
● DCCC: On Thursday, the DCCC released the second wave of its Red to Blue program (the first group was added in November). Red to Blue is meant to highlight the candidates the committee thinks are the strongest in key House races in large part to encourage donors and other liberal organizations to support them. Below are the candidates, each seat's 2012 and 2016 presidential numbers included.
FL-26: Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (55-44 Obama, 57-41 Clinton)
MN-03: Dean Phillips (50-49 Obama, 51-41 Clinton)
NC-13: Kathy Manning (53-46 Romney, 53-44 Trump)
NE-02: Brad Ashford (53-46 Romney, 48-46 Trump)
NJ-11: Mikie Sherrill (52-47 Romney, 49-48 Trump)
NY-11: Max Rose (52-47 Obama, 54-44 Trump)
UT-04: Ben McAdams (67-30 Romney, 39-32 Trump)
None of these additions are a surprise, but there are some things worth highlighting about a few of them. In Florida's 26th District, consulting firm president Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is the only notable Democrat who has kicked off a bid against GOP Rep. Carlos Curbelo. Mucarsel-Powell's opening fundraising quarter wasn't incredible last fall, but evidently, national Democrats seem satisfied that she'll be a good candidate in a tough race.
In Minnesota's 3rd, meanwhile, businessman Dean Phillips faces a primary challenge with Adam Jennings, a city councilor from the small community of Tonka Bay, before he can get to GOP Rep. Erik Paulsen. Jennings notably self-funded $231,000 during the third quarter of 2017, but it's unclear if he's able or willing to contribute more to get his name out.
Finally, in New Jersey's 11th, veteran Mikie Sherrill has a primary against businesswoman Tamara Harris, who threw down $300,000 of her own money in the third quarter. However, all other noteworthy candidates have dropped out of the primary against GOP Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen, and the local county Democratic Parties have consolidated behind Sherrill. The remaining Democrats in this batch of Red to Blue also seem to be on a glide path through their primaries.
Legislative
● Special Elections: Georgia conducted two legislative specials on Tuesday night, and Johnny Longtorso's got the goods:
Georgia SD-17: This was a Republican hold. Republican Brian Strickland won with 62 percent of the vote, while Democrat Phyllis Hatcher was second with 34 percent. The two other Republicans on the ballot split the remaining 4 percent.
Georgia HD-111: Republicans held onto this seat as well. Republican Geoffrey Cauble narrowly avoided a runoff, winning with 51 percent of the vote. Democrats El-Mahdi Holly and Tarji Leonard Dunn got 31 and 12 percent, respectively, while Republican Larry Morey came in last with 6 percent.
● Special Elections: We've been hollering for months now that Democrats are doing unusually well in special elections this cycle, and now we have the Special Elections Index to prove they've been doing better than they have been in decades. Not only that, but we've seen that this index can predict the House popular vote, even a year ahead of time. So what is it forecasting for 2018? Part three in this series will tell you the answer: very good things for Democrats.
● VA State House: Ugh. On Wednesday, Democrat Shelly Simonds, who lost a tiebreaker last week for a crucial state House race in Virginia's 94th District that ended in a draw following a disputed recount, announced that she'd concede to Republican Del. David Yancey rather than seek a second recount, despite being entitled to one under the law.
In a statement, Simonds said she'd run again in 2019 and insisted, "People will remember how we fought," but the vast majority of folks will only remember who won. Many Simonds' supporters, on the other hand, will be dismayed that she didn't avail herself of every last option available to her, especially since only a single vote would have had to shift in order to reach a different outcome.
Meanwhile, in the 28th District, a federal appeals court rejected a Democratic request that it overturn a lower court ruling refusing to prevent Republican Bob Thomas from getting sworn in at the state Capitol on Wednesday, the first day of the new legislative session. In that race, in which Thomas defeated Democrat Joshua Cole by 73 votes, at least 147 voters cast ballots in the wrong district, and Democrats are still hoping that a judge will order a new election.
But with Republicans holding fast to these two overtime victories, the GOP retained its slim 51-49 majority in the House, following a historic loss of 15 seats in November. That enabled them on Wednesday to elect Republican Del. Kirk Cox as speaker, a role he will likely retain even if the partisan composition of this narrowly divided chamber shifts in Democrats' favor at some point in the next two years.
Mayoral
● San Francisco, CA Mayor: Candidate filing closed on Tuesday for the June special election to replace San Francisco's late mayor, Ed Lee, who died last month. All the candidates will compete in a non-partisan instant runoff race where voters are allowed to rank their choices. If no one takes a majority of first-place votes, then second and third choices are redistributed from the candidates with the fewest votes to those still remaining. Whoever wins will be up for election again in November for a full four-year term.
In the final days ahead of the filing deadline, there were no surprises. Board of Supervisors President London Breed, who has served as acting mayor since Lee died, jumped in as expected. Breed joins former state Sen. Mark Leno, who represented the entire city in the legislature until he was termed-out in 2016; Supervisor Jane Kim, who lost a tight all-Democratic general election to succeed Leno; and former Supervisor Angela Alioto, the daughter of a former mayor and an unsuccessful candidate for mayor herself in 1991 and 2003.
All the major candidates identify as Democrats in this extremely blue city, but there are real divisions between them. San Francisco politics is frequently a battle between the city's moderates, who would be considered staunch liberals almost anywhere else, and progressives. As the San Francisco Chronicle's Rachel Swan writes, the two wings tend to be divided on land use, taxation, and regulation. "Progressives push for more affordable housing, tighter restrictions on tech companies, and higher taxes for corporations," explains Swan. "Moderates tend to be pro-development, pro-tech, and pro-business."
Moderates have controlled city hall since the early 1990s, and Breed is closer to their faction. However, Swan writes that Breed has been a swing vote at times. For her part, Alioto calls herself a "moderate liberal." By contrast, Leno got his start on the Board of Supervisors in the late 1990s as a moderate, but he's identified with the progressives now. Kim, who lost her state Senate bid to a moderate, is close to Bernie Sanders' supporters.
One of the biggest remaining questions is whether Breed will be the incumbent as voters go to the polls. The Board of Supervisors will vote next week on an interim mayor who will serve until the election. If a majority agrees on a candidate, that person will be interim mayor (though supervisors can't vote for themselves). However, if no one can get a majority, Breed will remain acting mayor until the election.
We also got a recent poll, conducted in late December and early January, of this contest. EMC Research, polling on behalf of the business-friendly San Francisco Committee on Jobs, showed Breed and Leno tied 15 apiece, while Kim was just behind at 12 and Alioto barely registered with 4. A PPP survey done days after Lee's death showed Leno at 26, Breed at 20, and Kim at just 5, while Alioto was not tested. Both surveys also asked about several politicians who ended up not running.
