A Washington Post-Schar School poll released today shows that voters are planning to vote for Democrats in this fall’s congressional elections by a 47% to 37%. In “Battleground Districts” the margin is 12 points (49% to 37%).
Battleground districts are those considered tossups or lean to one party or the other.
The poll was conducted June 26 to July 2 among registered voters and has a margin of error of 4.5-5%. Trump’s overall approval was 43% compared to 55% disapproval.
Democrats appear more energized than Republicans about the fall elections, especially in battleground districts. Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independent voters in those districts, 59 percent say the midterms are extremely important, compared with 46 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. Overall, registered voters say they prefer to vote for a Democrat over a Republican for the House, 47 percent to 37 percent. The margin on that question is not statistically larger in battleground districts, standing at 12 percentage points.
Voters have somewhat mixed opinions on immigration policy but support congressional Democrats more than Donald Trump on the broad issue by 38% to 30%. “But on border security, Trump holds a 10-point edge over Democrats, which balloons to 17 points in congressional battleground districts.”
By 56% to 39%, Americans think Trump’s Trade War with China is going badly for the US. By 74% to 22%, American voters think the trade actions will increase prices in the US.
As retaliatory tariffs by foreign nations kick in, trade policy may have a impact on how voters, especially in the Midwest, support Trump.
For commodities traders, soybeans are the most affected market, as China’s tariffs are directed against U.S. soybeans. With the tariffs officially in place, beans fell to $8.34 per bushel, the lowest level in nine years.
The poll also shows that 51% of voters think Republicans in Congress are being too supportive of the President while 21% think they are not supportive enough. Two in three Americans say the President lies.
The Washington Post-Schar School poll was conducted among a national sample of 1,473 U.S. adults including 865 of those living in congressional districts classified as tossups or leaning toward one party.
The Washington Post Poll has an A+ rating according to the website 538. The RCP average of generic polls is Democrats at +7.2%, but does not yet include this poll.
Yahoo has an article on this poll. Another DKOS diary discussing issues polled is here: