Paul Manafort didn’t just plead guilty to fraud charges Friday, he's now cooperating with the special counsel's Russia investigation. And man oh man, is he ever a star witness based on what he was privy to during the critical five months he managed the campaign of Donald J. Trump and even in the months thereafter. Remember, even though the fraud charges he faced have little to do with Trump directly, his cooperation means he can be called to offer information on anything and everything special counsel Robert Mueller is interested in.
1. The mysterious pro-Russian GOP platform change
Manafort was the de facto campaign manager in July 2016 when Trump captured the GOP nomination and a mysterious change was made to the Republican party platform that weakened U.S. support for Ukraine's efforts to combat a pro-Russian separatist movement in the country.
No one has ever really gotten to the bottom of how or why that change was made, but an RNC delegate has accused Trump of directly ordering it. Manafort may well have more information into how that pro-Russian change was engineered.
2. The Trump Tower meeting
Manafort attended (and took notes!) on the now-infamous June 2016 Trump Tower meeting between top Trump campaign chiefs—including himself, Jared Kushner and Don Jr.—and a Kremlin-linked lawyer (who later admitted to being an agent of the Russian government) and her entourage.
Manafort's involvement in that meeting will be key to the fate of Don Jr. and possibly Trump himself, since he may very well know if Trump knew about the meeting in advance of it. In fact, two days before that June 9 meeting, Trump also publicly promised to give a a "major speech" on "all the things that have taken place with the Clintons" that ultimately never materialized. Just guessing that was a topic of conversation among those heading the campaign, chief among them, Manafort.
3. Trump's solicitation of Russian help in the election
Manafort was also the de facto campaign manager when in July 2016 Trump enlisted Russia's help in the winning the election with the very public appeal: "Russia, if you're listening, I hope you're able to find the 30,000 emails that are missing."
4. Russian interactions with George Papadopoulos
Manafort officially joined the Trump campaign on March 29. Two days later, Trump convened a meeting with his national security advisers, including Papadopoulos, that he later memorialized with a tweeted picture of the attendees. In the meeting, Papadopoulos introduced the idea of arranging a meeting between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. While there's been conflicting reports about how that prospect was received by Trump and key campaign surrogate Jeff Sessions, it clearly kicked off a long dance between the Kremlin and Papadopoulos, who also learned later that Russia had "dirt" on Hillary Clinton. That back-and-forth, meticulously documented in the special counsel's statement of offense for Papadopoulos, took place between late March and mid-August, the time period during which Manafort consolidated power within the campaign and his influence peaked then ebbed (Manafort officially resigned due to his pro-Russian ties on August 19, 2016).
5. The Trump transition period
Although Manafort left the campaign before Trump was elected, his influence within the Trump camp continued. Not only did his deputy, Rick Gates, continue to work for Trump through the transition, Manafort himself was reportedly advising Trump on his cabinet picks throughout that period.
On top of that, the FBI reportedly obtained FISA warrants to surveil Manafort through part of 2016 and extending into the early part of Trump's presidency in 2017. CNN wrote in September of 2017:
The government snooping continued into early this year, including a period when Manafort was known to talk to President Donald Trump.
(The New York Times has also reported that the FBI picked up repeated contacts between Trump associates, including Manafort, and Russian operatives.)
What cannot be overstated here is the fact that Robert Mueller and his team have succeeded in turning every single one of their top targets, which now include Trump's former national security adviser and transition team member Michael Flynn, Trump's former deputy campaign manager and member of the inaugural committee Rick Gates, and now Trump's former campaign chair and manager Paul Manafort.
It's hard to imagine who could bring a fuller picture to Team Trump's potential conspiracy with the Russians than that trifecta of cooperators.
No wonder Flynn's sentencing was delayed just a few weeks back. Mueller was likely planning for the prospect that they just might flip Manafort yet, and Flynn's insights would certainly be crucial to whatever new information Manafort offered.
People are already worrying that Manafort's testimony might be sullied by the fact that he's clearly accustomed to lying for a living. But it won't just be Manafort vs. Trump—it will be Manafort, Flynn, Gates, other testimony from Trump associates, plus thousands of obtained emails and other FBI intercepts vs. a guy who just officially surpassed telling 5,000 lies since taking office.
If Trump did anything wrong, he's toast.