Republicans have three ways forward on Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the Supreme Court:
1. Forge ahead and confirm. Base is mollified, they have their pro-Trump vote on the high court, but they take a massive hit among white suburban women—the one demographic group that appears swingy at the moment. (Every other group is locked in and refusing to budge.) Republicans have already been losing those white suburban women this cycle. If they lose them long-term, their path to power is severely complicated.
2. Pull the nomination. Base is apoplectic, but they still have time to replace him with someone who isn’t rapey. The base remains furious at capitulation to the liberals, likely exacerbating losses this November. Red-state Democrats don’t have to vote against a Trump nominee, also helping their re-election efforts. Replace Kavanaugh with a female conservative, and Republicans can start working to win back those suburban white women ahead of 2020. Red-state Dems would likely play along.
3. Force a losing vote. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has threatened a vote whether he has the votes or not, in large part to force those red-state Dems into casting difficult votes. However, how difficult are those votes if it’s a bipartisan show of opposition? As of now, it’s not clear that Republicans have the votes, and it’s also not clear that the likes of Ted Cruz would be helped by such a vote. Too many Republican fates are in the hands of those suburban white women. Pissing them off could be more deadly than trying to keep the base in line.
And one more point: Kavanaugh’s story isn’t over. If and when Democrats take either chamber of Congress, investigations into his rapey past will continue. Criminal referrals will be made, and state authorities in Maryland have already indicated willingness to investigate.
Do Republicans really want a Supreme Court justice who, already subject to impeachment over his serial perjury, will now be under criminal jeopardy as well? If convicted, impeachment might not even be necessary, as he’d likely be forced to resign. Democrats would then have an open seat to fill (and could flip the balance of the court in the process).
So why are Republicans so hell-bent on putting such a flawed and impeachable man on the high court? At this point, it’s simply to deny liberals a victory. But no matter what happens, the end result will not be pretty for the GOP.