The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● VA-Gov, VA Legislature: Former Gov. Terry McAuliffe announced on Wednesday evening that he would not join the Democratic presidential primary, explaining that he feels duty-bound to help flip Virginia's closely divided legislature this fall. Democrats only need to win two seats in the state House and one in the state Senate to take control of each chamber, but they nevertheless face serious obstacles.
In particular, McAuliffe noted that the state has "had a lot of problems" since February, when twin scandals engulfed Gov. Ralph Northam and Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax. Ordinarily, a party's top statewide officials would be busy raising money to support their legislative candidates, but as this infographic vividly shows, Northam and Fairfax have been rendered impotent pariahs. Northam in fact has only raised $2,500 since his blackface debacle unfolded, something McAuliffe specifically cited in an interview with the New York Times.
As he set aside his hopes of seeking the presidency, McAuliffe simultaneously danced around questions from CNN's Chris Cuomo about whether he might seek a comeback as governor and ultimately wouldn't rule out the idea. Virginia, alone in the nation, limits governors to a single four-year term, but former office-holders can run for non-consecutive terms. The last person to pull off this feat was Mills Godwin, who was elected as a Democrat in 1965, then as a Republican in 1973. That also made him the first governor in U.S. history to be elected as a member of both parties.
Still, it's extremely early to be discussing a race that won't take place until 2021. Our general practice is to only start delving into an election no more than two years beforehand, because too much is likely to change this far out. Like T-Mac, we're focused on November's legislative elections, so we'll take a closer look at Virginia's next gubernatorial contest after those are in the books.
And at least one other (actual) presidential hopeful shares that mindset. This week, Beto O'Rourke campaigned in Virginia on behalf of Democrats running for the legislature, saying, "We want to do everything we can to help you by bringing attention and focus, within the commonwealth and from without, on the importance of these next elections." The rest of the presidential primary field should follow suit, and not just in Virginia, but across the country.
Senate
● CO-Sen: Politico reports that Secretary of State Jena Griswold is considering joining the Democratic primary to take on GOP Sen. Cory Gardner and recently met with both the DSCC and EMILY's List. So far, Griswold has not said anything publicly about her interest.
Before she sought office in 2018, Griswold worked for Barack Obama's 2012 re-election campaign, where she trained other attorneys and poll-watchers, and later as then-Gov. John Hickenlooper's liaison to the federal government. Last year, Griswold won the Democratic nod for secretary of state without any opposition and unseated Republican incumbent Wayne Williams 53-45. Griswold's victory made her the first Democrat elected to this post since 1958, when Democrat George Baker won re-election.
Griswold would be the first woman elected to the Senate in Colorado, but she may not be the only woman in the primary if she runs. The Colorado Sun writes that former state House Speaker Alice Madden is "expected" to enter the race "in coming weeks," though, like Griswold, Madden declined to comment about her plans for their story. Madden left the legislature in 2009 and is now the executive director at the University of Colorado Boulder's environmental law center.
Political insiders have also speculated for months that freshman Rep. Joe Neguse could run, but he only made his first public comments about the race last week when The Denver Post asked him if he was interested. Neguse didn't rule anything out when given the chance, saying instead, "You know, uh―I decline to comment." Neguse went on to talk about his work in the House and concluded, "So yeah." Neguse's 2018 win made him Colorado's first black congressman, and he would again make history as the state's first black senator if he successfully challenged Gardner.
● NM-Sen: On Thursday afternoon, the DSCC endorsed Democratic Rep. Ben Ray Lujan for New Mexico's open Senate seat, even though Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver looks likely to enter the primary later this month. It's perplexing that the committee would want to involve itself here, though, since none of the usual reasons applies: No one with serious electability issues (and a plausible path to the nomination) is hovering around the race, and Democrats should be able to hold this seat without much of a problem next year.
● RI-Sen: At some point, though it's not clear exactly when, Democratic Sen. Jack Reed announced that he'd seek a fifth term next year, and he's been raising money to that end, stockpiling $1.8 million in the bank as of the end of March. Reed is unlikely to face any serious primary or general election opposition.
● TX-Sen: Democratic Rep. Joaquin Castro said Wednesday that he'll announce whether he'll challenge GOP Sen. John Cornyn "soon." But when is soon? Castro hinted that the decision would come by May 1, saying that in past election cycles, he'd made his plans clear by that date.
Gubernatorial
● KY-Gov: Former state Auditor Adam Edelen is out with a poll from Anzalone Liszt Grove Research of the May 21 Democratic primary, and it finds him trailing Attorney General Andy Beshear 43-23, with state House Minority Leader Rocky Adkins at 22%. Those aren't great numbers for Edelen, though they're better than the early February Beshear internal from Garin-Hart-Yang that gave the attorney general a 55-17 lead over Adkins while Edelen took just 7%. We haven't seen any other primary polls here.
House
● IL-14: This week, GOP state Sen. Sue Rezin acknowledged she was considering challenging freshman Democratic Rep. Lauren Underwood and said she expects to decide "in the next couple of months." Rezin only represents about 4% of the 14th District (most of her safely red-38th Senate District is located in the neighboring 16th Congressional District), so if she ran, she likely wouldn't start out a strong base of support.
State Sen. Jim Oberweis is already seeking the GOP nod for this 49-44 Trump seat in the western Chicago area, but his god-awful electoral history is unlikely to scare off many potential opponents. His fundraising is also nothing stellar, either: Oberweis raised $107,000 from donors since he launched his bid in mid-February, a campaign that began with him accidentally running for the Senate for a day.
However, Oberweis, who runs an eponymous dairy chain, has sunk plenty of his own money into his failed bids in the past, and he's already self-funded $105,000 for this new campaign. There's probably a lot more where that came from: In 2014, Oberweis provided his no-hope Senate bid with $1.6 million, and he self-funded his 2008 House bids with a total of $3.8 million.
Right now, Oberweis is the only noteworthy Republican challenging Underwood. Navy veteran Matt Quigley jumped in back in January, but he's since announced that he's dropping out of the contest. A third Republican candidate, Army veteran Anthony Catella, entered the race in March but still does not appear to have formed a fundraising committee.
● NC-03: A brand-new mystery super PAC called Awake Carolina just made a $90,000 media buy on behalf of accountant Celeste Cairns, who's running in the April 30 GOP primary. As Rob Pyers notes, the group has yet to release any information on its donors, though the Club for Growth did endorse Cairns earlier this week. However, the Club usually is not shy about spending directly on behalf of the candidates it favors, so it's likely that another band of anti-tax fanatics are behind Awake Carolina.
