GOP Rep. Chris Collins is scheduled to stand trial in February for insider trading and says he’ll decide whether to run again “early next year,” which puts local Republicans who covet New York’s 27th Congressional District in an awkward position. However, some local GOP politicians are already taking steps toward a possible bid, and The Buffalo News’ s Robert McCarthy takes a look at the behind-the-scenes positioning for a conservative upstate New York seat that may or may not be open this cycle.
Of all the Republicans who might run here, Erie County Comptroller Stefan Mychajliw is being the most transparent about his intentions. Mychajliw, whom McCarthy describes as a “Collins supporter,” declared, “When that seat opens up, I’m going to run for it,” though it doesn’t sound like he’d be willing to challenge Collins in a primary. Mychajliw said that, if the congressman is running for re-election before his legal situation is resolved, Collins “could write himself a three to five million dollar check and win.” For now, though, Mychajliw is appearing at events in all six counties in the district.
McCarthy also writes that state Sen. Robert Ortt has also been “making the rounds” throughout the seat. Ortt hasn’t said anything publicly about his plans, though Niagara County party chair Richard Andres said the state senator “is always going to be interested in that seat.” McCarthy also relays that unnamed sources tell him that fellow state Sen. Chris Jacobs has been “talking to potential donors and studying various scenarios that may or may not unfold,” but Jacobs has also not said anything out loud.
McCarthy also name-drops a few other GOP potential candidates: Assemblyman Stephen Hawley, Erie County Legislator Edward Rath, and radio show host David Bellavia. Both Bellavia and Collins ran in the 2012 GOP primary for the right to take on Democratic incumbent Kathy Hochul; Collins beat Bellavia 60-40, and he went on to narrowly defeat Hochul.
This seat, which includes some of the Buffalo suburbs, backed Trump 60-35, and it would ordinarily be very safe red turf. However, Collins turned in a weak 49.1-48.7 performance against Democrat Nate McMurray, who says he'll run again if Collins does. If Collins continues to look weak as the cycle progresses, it's very possible that Republican leaders will pressure him to retire or try to encourage a primary challenger to get in. Indeed, Erie County Conservative Party Chair Ralph Lorigo, whose party usually backs the GOP nominee, said he doubted that his organization would endorse a Collins re-election bid. (Update: This post initially misidentified Lorigo as leader of the Erie County Republican Party.)